Turkey gains export advantage in EU with EAF steelmaking
Barış Yılmaz, a member of the Turkey’s Stainless Industrialists and Business Association (PASİD) and general manager of Komtrade Stainless Steel, has delivered a comprehensive presentation at the Steel Industry Supply Chain International Forum in Taiwan on the production capabilities of Turkey’s steel and stainless steel industries, as well as the country’s green transformation efforts under the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), emphasizing that Turkey is above the global average in low-carbon steel production, which gives the country a competitive edge in markets with strict environmental policies such as the EU.
Stating that Turkey will pay less carbon tax under the CBAM with its production structure and planned green transformation initiatives, Mr. Yılmaz said, “With proper planning, Turkey can become one of the fastest countries in reducing carbon emissions worldwide.”
In Turkey, 70 percent of steel production is based on electric arc furnaces. This rate is above the global average and results in lower carbon emissions. According to Yılmaz, this production structure distinguishes Turkey from countries like South Korea and Vietnam, where only 25 percent and 10 percent of steel production is based on electric arc furnaces, respectively.
CBAM-prompted imports may deepen oversupply in EU
Some European stainless steel buyers expect an influx of material into EU ports towards the end of 2025 as importers attempt to avoid the added administrative and cost burden of CBAM.
The European Commission’s emissions-based Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is currently scheduled for a full rollout from January 1, 2026. Under the current plans, registered declarants – those approved by the Commission to import material – will have to report all imports and their carbon content from that date.
They will also have to buy and submit CBAM certificates to reflect the greenhouse gas emissions generated during the production of the goods they bring into the EU. This means they will effectively pay a charge based on the quantity of carbon emitted during the manufacturing process in the country of origin.
Under changes proposed by the Commission in February, the purchase of CBAM certificates would be delayed until February 1, 2027, however. This is part of a package of measures which aim to simplify the process and further smooth a transition period which started in October 2023. Approval of the amendment was expected as the Stainless Steel Review was published.
The need to report stainless steel imports and their emissions will remain, regardless of the amendments’ approval. Consequently, some MEPS respondents anticipate that import volumes will grow in quarter four. However, others highlight that weak demand may mitigate any upturn in imports.
Any increase in third-country shipments would be an unwelcome development for European mills. MEPS respondents say that the use of Indonesian-origin slabs as a basis for coil production, and a reduction of scrap prices, may be helping to preserve certain producers’ profit margins. Nonetheless, low selling prices are challenging their profitability.
Inventories are rising, meanwhile, due to a combination of low demand and the loss of export business in the United States, following the implementation of 25% Section 232 import tariffs on March 12. Changes to the EU’s import safeguard measures have done little to reduce imports in recent weeks.
The UK plans to roll out its own CBAM scheme in 2027. The EU and UK have agreed to work towards linking their Emissions Trading Systems, effectively exempting shipments between the two from CBAM’s associated cost and administrative burdens.
Mills under price pressure
The quarter one financial results of Europe’s largest stainless producers indicate that oversupply will continue to apply downward pressure to stainless steel prices.
Acerinox reported a 29% quarter-on-quarter increase in melt shop production, to 512,000 tonnes, from its consolidated operations in Europe and the United States. This came despite an acknowledgement that inventories had increased amid pressure from imports, which have increased their share of the European market to 22%.
Acerinox expects US tariffs to improve the profitability of its US operations. However, chief executive Bernado Velázquez raised concerns that many of the exports that previously ended up in the US, and that have lost competitiveness as a result of the tariffs – including European exports – may now end up in the EU.
Outokumpu’s stainless steel deliveries, in Europe, rose by 10.8% quarter-on-quarter and 5% year-on-year, to 318,000 tonnes, in quarter one. The value of the steelmaker’s sales rose by a lesser 9.8% quarter-on-quarter and 3.4% year-on-year due to reduced selling prices.
Shipments from Aperam’s stainless and electrical steels division rose from 401,000 tonnes to 421,000 tonnes quarter-on-quarter. Nonetheless, its earnings before interest and tax declined by 30% quarter-on-quarter and 67% year-on-year, to EUR34m. The decrease was attributed to “intensive pricing pressure in Europe”.
All three producers forecast a more profitable quarter two. However, Aperam chief executive Timoteo Di Maulo said that reliable projections for the remainder of the year are “challenging in the current volatile environment”.
BIR: 2025 to remain challenging for stainless sector
Market conditions for the stainless steel industry are not expected to improve in the coming months amid seasonal lows and a sluggish price environment, with considerable challenges expected for the duration of 2025, Kallanish learns.
Joost van Kleef, chairman of the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) Stainless Steel & Special Alloys Committee, representing Oryx Stainless made the comments in the latest BIR Stainless Mirror.
Elsewhere, Ruggero Ricco, chief executive of Nichel Leghe, has indicated that there is currently minimal evidence suggesting a near-term reversal of the sector’s prolonged downturn.
“The lack of strength in European domestic demand is pushing stainless steel mills to lower prices in a bid to steal customers from each other. This race to the bottom favours Indonesian products, which are much cheaper than integral production with European scrap.” Ricco states.
The scrap market is experiencing a significant decline in both prices and volumes, primarily due to a preference by EU producers for Indonesian nickel pig iron as a more cost-effective solution.
Europe is currently examining its production strategy, evaluating scrap use against the possibility of transitioning to nickel pig iron or direct acquisition of slabs, Ricco argues. For the past six months, scrap prices and sales volumes have been falling in Europe while the US tariffs have considerably impacted the stainless steel market, with Asian nations redirecting their shipments to Europe and other countries, Ricco points out.
The European stainless flat and long markets are facing a significant downturn, characterised by weak order intake across the entire value chain and a persistent downward trajectory in stainless steel coil and derivatives, longs and scrap. Both coil and long product mills in Europe are decreasing their prices and report high stocks (see Kallanish passim).
Multiple sources in the scrap sector, including Ricco, tell Kallanish they expect further declines in the most popular stainless scrap grades, such as 304, in June as values are beginning to fall below €1,200/tonne ($1,355/t) delivered.
Natalia Capra France
US tariffs hit EU stainless longs market
The European market for stainless long steel, including wire rod, bars, and other niche products, is experiencing a persistent decline, with prices reaching their lowest levels in recent years, according to supplier sources.
Two mill executives indicate
In response to contracting consumption, Europe is experiencing what can be characterised as “a new normal”, with mills adjusting their operations by idling equipment for several days each month to align with current demand levels. The stainless longs segment is going through “a recessive phase, not only in Europe but also in the US and Asia”, another northern European mill source comments.
US tariffs are significantly affecting producers in both Asia and Europe. Asian material supply, particularly from China and India, is currently experiencing a shift in direction towards Europe. EU quotas are effectively curbing robust Asia-origin supply but are not entirely halting the flow of material into the market, which “remains huge”, the source adds.
One mill reports ongoing sales in the US; however, US customers have prudently scaled back their orders, opting to purchase only what is essential to mitigate the impact of tariffs. EU mills are believed to have lost about 30% of their sales to the US as a consequence of tariffs.
The EU safeguard revision has proven to be ineffective for the European stainless longs sector. There has been a lack of action at European level to safeguard the segment from significant imports, which is largely attributed to influential lobbying by buyers.
End-user sectors have reported declining longs consumption over the past year. The US oil and gas sector has curtailed investment. One source indicates the current demand driver in Europe is the defence sector, which is anticipated to sustain its momentum due to projected capacity enhancements.
Questioned about potential projections for recovery, both sources concur “there is no outlook”. Certain macroeconomic developments might nevertheless lead to favourable outcomes for the market, including the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
European mills are adopting a long-term perspective, navigating challenges using strategic cost management, while simultaneously pursuing investments focused on vertical integration and expansion. The strategy, which has also been adopted by some European flats producers, seeks to mitigate businesses’ exposure to the cyclical dynamics of the steel industry while diversifying production.
Coil producer Aperam has purchased US specialty steel producer Universal Stainless & Alloy Products as part of its strategy to enhance market position, expand geographic footprint, and diversify product offering. It is targeting high-growth sectors, including aerospace and industrial applications.
At its Imphy site in France, the Luxembourg-based producer is doubling capacity and boosting wire rod supply, serving the aerospace, automotive, and welding consumables industries.
Italian longs producer Cogne Acciai Speciali, a subsidiary of Walsin Lihwa, also intends to strengthen its position in the special steel industry by boosting its portfolio and expertise in the global market. The steelmaker recently expanded its operations by acquiring ComSteel Inox, its main stainless steel scrap supplier, and a portion of Outokumpu’s long products business in Degerfors and Storfors, Sweden (see Kallanish passim).
Cogne and Walsin’s growth strategy focuses on increasing market share in Europe and Asia while enhancing the group’s presence in the US market.
Natalia Capra France
European stainless coil prices decline
The European stainless flat steel market is experiencing a difficult period characterised by sluggish order intake and a downward trend in coil prices, according to stainless processors and service centres.
Several mills in Europe have reduced their prices for May delivery by approximately €20-30/tonne ($22-34), with order books remaining under pressure. A stainless steel producer is reportedly implementing a gradual weekly price reduction, with expectations for this trend to continue. The coil price increases in March did not yield the desired results, as buyers, facing market uncertainty and diminished demand, opted to reduce purchases, Kallanish notes.
Coil supply exceeds demand in Europe. According to one source, last year saw a supply and demand equilibrium, as both Acerinox and Outokumpu halted production amid social unrest.
A service centre in Italy reports its clients are engaging in minimal purchasing activity and continue to execute low-volume transactions, frequently on a back-to-back basis. Service centres are also buying limited quantities to address inventory gaps.
Multiple processors indicate first-quarter sales volumes align with those of Q1 2024; however, margins are experiencing pressure and, in some cases, are falling below cost. Efforts to raise sheet prices have encountered difficulties, with values remaining largely stable in the range of €2,550-2,620/t ex-works, contingent upon volumes and client specifications.
April and May are projected to experience a slowdown, attributed to the Easter holiday and multiple bank holidays in May, particularly in France. A service centre in northern Europe confirms the market is slow in Italy, France, and Germany, and there is no appetite for risk or speculation. The company is focusing on diversification, trying to stay away from commodity products where competition is tough and prices are under pressure.
European mills are quoting €2,450/t for stainless cold rolled coil for May delivery, inclusive of delivery costs. Hot rolled coil prices range from €130-150/t lower, based on volume.
Italian stainless flats prices remain subdued, at approximately €50/t lower than the broader European market. CRC pricing in Italy is at €2,380-2,400/t delivered. HRC in Europe stands at approximately €2,170-2,200/t delivered.
According to Italian steel trade association Assofermet’s April market note, demand for flat and long stainless steel products remains subdued in the country. Nonetheless, a potential rebalancing between supply and demand is anticipated for April. Increased focus on inventory management may limit price declines and help maintain margins.
EU safeguard proposals disappoint steel stainless sector
The European Commission’s safeguard measure review has not met the expectations of the EU’s stainless steel mills or processors.
Sources were reacting to a European Commission document leaked on Tuesday, which was then confirmed in a WTO notification on Wednesday.
The proposed amendments to EU safeguards include new caps for carbon steel, but there appears to be no indication of additional import restrictions for stainless steel coils and long products.
A stainless steel bar manufacturer voiced their apprehension about the insufficient protective measures against lower-priced products from Asia, especially from India. Eurofer is reportedly gearing up to address the proposals. The Commission is holding a consultation period on 11-18 March.
The outlook for future European price increases for stainless bar appears uncertain. A continued material influx from other countries into Europe is likely to reduce domestic sales and maintain compressed margins in the market.
The safeguard quotas for stainless coil and other flat products remain unchanged, with the existing quotas still in effect. A prominent steel processor and a steel producer, who communicated with Kallanish shortly before the document was leaked, had expressed optimism that the announcement would catalyse an increase in flats prices.
The current concern, however, is that the increase attempts in Europe may not gain sufficient traction, leading customers to persist with purchasing lower-cost material from Asia. According to two sources, stainless sheet prices in Europe continue to be comparatively low when assessed against the cost of cold rolled coil feedstock. Sheet is at approximately €2,600/tonne ($2,840) ex-works, while European CRC at €2,500/t for May delivery indicates a constrained environment for margins and profitability.
“I believe the Commission has now expressed a firm political will on import restrictions. The EU must want to preserve the relationship with Asian countries, particularly when the rapport with the US has become tricky. Regarding stainless, the [leaked] document represents 40 pages of nothing. This will strongly impact the sector that has suffered months of unsustainable margins. This represents a significant setback for producers but also for the downstream, as it is unlikely that coils derivatives will increase,” a coil buyer comments.
Import restrictions will continue to apply to nations such as China and Taiwan; however, there has been no implementation of a cap. This quarter, multiple buyers have acquired CRC from various Asian sources, notably Korea.
The Commission has proposed that carbon steel products that have experienced severe import surges receive additional restrictions such as new quota caps and revising the administration of unused quotas. Adjustments also include reducing liberalisation rates from 1% to 0.1%, to slow tariff-rate quota (TRQ) expansion and ensure a better balance with market demand.
Natalia Capra France
Matthieu Jehl appointed president of Outokumpu’s Stainless Europe Business Line
Outokumpu Corporation has announced the appointment of Matthieu Jehl as President of its Stainless Europe business line. He will also join the Outokumpu Leadership Team, with his tenure set to begin no later than May 26, 2025.
Jehl brings extensive international experience in the steel industry, with a strong background in the European market. Prior to joining Outokumpu, he held various leadership positions at ArcelorMittal across multiple European locations and also served as President of the Energy division at John Cockerill.
Outokumpu President and CEO Kati ter Horst welcomed Jehl’s appointment, emphasizing his industry expertise and leadership skills.
“Matthieu has significant international experience and a deep understanding of the European steel market. His industry knowledge, combined with strong leadership capabilities, will be valuable to Outokumpu,” ter Horst stated.
Jehl expressed enthusiasm about his new role, highlighting Outokumpu’s position as a leader in sustainable stainless steel production.
“Leading the Stainless Europe business line is an exciting opportunity. Outokumpu’s commitment to sustainability and low-carbon stainless steel production is particularly meaningful to me. I look forward to contributing to the company at this crucial time for the European steel industry,” Jehl said.
In his new role, Jehl will report directly to ter Horst and will be based at Outokumpu’s office in Krefeld, Germany.
Source: outokumpu.com and marketsteel.com
US leads available EU stainless CRC TRQ
Significant portions of EU fourth-quarter tariff rate quota (TRQ) allocations for stainless cold-rolled sheet and strip remain available for several countries, with the exception of Taiwan and Turkey, Kallanish notes from the EU customs portal.
Taiwan completely exhausted its allocation of 46,583 tonnes on 28 October. Turkey consumed 85% of its allocation, leaving only 3,493t available out of a Q4 allocation of 22,910t.
South Korea, having the largest single-country allocation of 63,756t in Q4, has 29,845t or 47% still available. South Africa has also shown moderate usage, with 14,817t or 48% of its TRQ available.
Countries subject to safeguard measures have 70,101t or 64% of their total TRQ allocation available.
India has also underutilised its Q4 quota allocation, having 45,863t or 84% of its allocation available as of 11 December.
The US has the highest available quota, with 45,955t remaining, representing 97% of its total Q4 allocation.
| Origin | Quota 01.10.24- 31.12.24 |
Transferred | Total | Balance | Awaiting allocation |
Available | Available TRQ % |
| South Korea | 50,182 | 13,575 | 63,756 | 35,014 | 5,169 | 29,845 | 47 |
| Taiwan | 46,535 | 48 | 46,583 | – | – | – | – |
| India | 31,103 | 23,381 | 54,483 | 46,027 | 164 | 45,863 | 84 |
| South Africa | 27,064 | 3,607 | 30,672 | 14,958 | 141 | 14,817 | 48 |
| United States | 25,305 | 22,190 | 47,496 | 45,990 | 34 | 45,955 | 97 |
| Türkiye | 21,057 | 1,853 | 22,910 | 3,546 | 53 | 3,493 | 15 |
| Countries subject to safeguard measures | 66,853 | 42,373 | 109,226 | 70,488 | 387 | 70,101 | 64 |
| United Kingdom* | 32 | 22 | 54 | 49 | – | 49 | 90 |
*to Northern Ireland from other parts of the UK
Source: EU TARIC, as of 11 December. Calculated by Kallanish
Elina Virchenko UAE
Low demand pushes European stainless steel prices down
Fastmarkets’ monthly price assessment for stainless steel, cold-rolled sheet, 2mm, grade 304, transaction domestic, delivered North Europe was €2,550-2,600 ($2,694-2,747) per tonne on Friday, down from €2,600-2,650 on November 1.
“I’ve never seen the market so slow,” one trader told Fastmarkets. “Usually, December is slow because people don’t want to buy material right before the end of the year, but I certainly didn’t expect liquidity to be so low.”
A second market source said, “I wanted to sell [material], but I couldn’t find a buyer. I hope demand will pick up in January.”
A third source said that the chances of demand rising in January 2025 are “considerable, but nothing is guaranteed.”
“Traditionally, January is a very active month compared with December, but given the current state of the market, we might be surprised,” the third source said.
The alloy surcharge for grade-304 material also fell month on month.
Fastmarkets’ monthly assessment for stainless steel, cold-rolled sheet, 2mm, grade 304 alloy surcharge, domestic, Europe was €2,015-2,064 per tonne on December 6, down by €50-62 per tonne from €2,077-2,114 per tonne on November 1.
On October 4, the monthly assessment was €1,963-2,023 per tonne, down by €28-36 from €1,999-2,051 per tonne on September 6.
European stainless flats market stagnation persists
The European stainless flat steel market is currently experiencing downward pressure, as demonstrated by the decline in coil prices observed for December and January delivery.
The market is seeing persistent overcapacity coupled with sluggish demand from buyers. Projections suggest this trend of subdued activity is likely to extend into the first quarter of 2025, according to sources across both southern and northern Europe who spoke to Kallanish.
The market has not shown any significant increase in coil and sheet stock replenishment ahead of the Christmas break. Most distributors and service centres are maintaining a back-to-back buying strategy, indicating a lack of apparent demand.
A steelmaker reports the primary challenges for coils, tubes, and sheets are a sluggish order intake for January. A re-roller says shipments are at acceptable levels, although they have diminished year-on-year. However, new orders for January are facing a decline of 50% compared to last year despite the medium-low stocks in Europe.
An Italian service centre reports limited visibility on orders, indicating a slowdown in customer activity. He confirms the absence of restocking prior to the holiday. Demand for tube products remains weak but stable, whereas demand for sheet products is showing a slightly better performance compared to tube.
In northern and western Europe, stainless cold rolled coil values for January delivery are at €2,470-2,480/tonne ($2,600-2,610) delivered, reflecting a decrease from the December range of €2,500-2,550/t delivered. By comparison, stainless hot rolled coil is priced at approximately €130-140/t lower.
Italian stainless CRC is observed at €2,400-2,430/t depending on volumes. Rough edge HRC stands at €2,100/t for large-volume deliveries, while smaller orders are priced at €2,150/t delivered. Sheet prices are not sustainable at €2,600/t ex-works; however, sources suggest lower levels are heard. Sheet prices are projected to decline in January, aligning with coils, by €20-30/t.
Natalia Capra France