EURANIMI: ‘Shortages and skyrocketing prices’ from CBAM, new steel import quota
As part of the EU’s “plan to address the negative trade-related effects of global overcapacity on the EU steel market” published on October 7, the EU proposes for import quotas to drop by 50% – and 60% for stainless steel – and out-of-quota levies to rise from 25% to 50%.
The existing EU steel safeguard measures have been in place since 2018 and are intended to protect EU steelmakers from a potential surge in imports. They are set to run until June 30 2026, and a new trade regime with tighter quotas is expected to replace it. However, several European stats have been pushing for earlier introduction of new trade regime, Fastmarkets reported.
“We heard April 1 [2026] as a possible date of a new system coming into force, but it might not be feasible, considering the complexity of the new system. July 1 2026 looks like a more realistic date [for new trade regime introduction].,” a steelmaker source told Fastmarkets.
If the existing safeguard measures are not replaced by the proposed new trade regime, it “would leave a substantial gap in the level of protection currently afforded to the EU steel industry,” the European Commission warned on October 7 in its draft regulation aimed at addressing the negative trade-related effects of global overcapacity on the EU steel market.
As such, the Commission proposes to introduce “an appropriate and effective protective measure beyond 30 June 2026 that will contribute to preserving a competitive and sustainable EU steel industry,” in line with suggestions first made in the Steel and Metals Action Plan (SMAP), published in March 2025.
And, crucially for EURANIMI, this will begin after the introduction of the EU’s CBAM policy “which, alone, will easily drive steel prices up by an additional 10% or more when it takes effect on January 1 2026,” the association said in a statement.
EURANIMI states that, combined, the two policies will result in “skyrocketing prices and structural shortages for the European manufacturing industry.” This will occur through lack of capacity within the EU, an influx of cheap imports of finished products into the EU – that are also exempt from CBAM liability – and a loss of European competitiveness. In addition, European exporters could lose market share through heightened costs.
To prevent any further European deindustrialization, EURANIMI requests the European Commission to reconsider its proposal and extend the quota to include end products.
They suggest applying a 50% import duty, calculated based on the steel content of imported products containing at least 20% steel. This would “ensure European manufacturers are not penalized simply because they produce within the Union,” the statement said.
“Protecting EU steel production is legitimate, but not at the expense of the manufacturing industry. Otherwise, we will lose even more production, jobs and autonomy. A strong steel industry exists by virtue of a strong European market,” Rob Greve, executive board member of EURANIMI said in the press release.
European steel distributors federation EUROMETAL has earlier made a similar request to the Commission to include steel derivatives in the scope of both CBAM and the new trade regime to protect the European manufacturing industry.
On October 21 EUROMETAL sent another letter to the European Commission, warning that the proposed safeguard measures risk “accelerating the displacement of EU downstream industry” unless equivalent protection is extended to steel derivatives and finished products.
The federation said the current framework “leaves a significant vulnerability” by shielding primary steel but not the companies that process it, exposing EU manufacturers to cheaper imports of pre-processed and finished goods. EUROMETAL called on the Commission to immediately extend safeguard coverage to include downstream steel-based products, warning that without such action, Europe could become a “dumping ground for low-cost, high-impact processed steel products.”
In the meantime, the European steel market has already started feeling the effects of CBAM and the new trade regime, with flat steel prices in particular climbing up gradually, driven by a shifting trading framework, while real demand remained subdued.
For example, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €602.50 per tonne ($701) on Tuesday, up slightly from €602.00 per tonne on Monday October 27. The index was up by €7.50 per tonne week on week and by €24.79 per tonne month on month.
Local suppliers were looking to achieve €620-650 per tonne ex-works for January delivery material.
WTO recommends EU bring measures on Indonesian stainless CR flats into conformity
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has released an addendum to its report in the dispute panel concerning the EU’s antidumping and countervailing duties on imports of stainless steel cold rolled flat products from Indonesia.
The WTO stated that the EU had acted inconsistently with some WTO rules in a dispute over its duties on the given products from Indonesia and recommended that the EU bring its measures into conformity with the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures, General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) 1994 and the Antidumping Agreement.
Indonesia requested dispute consultations in 2023, challenging the EU’s imposition of both countervailing and antidumping duties on stainless steel cold rolled flat products, arguing that the EU’s investigations and resulting measures violate WTO rules, including GATT 1994 and the Antidumping Agreement, as SteelOrbis previously reported.
The EU’s definitive antidumping duties on imports of stainless steel cold rolled flat products from Indonesia are at the range of 9.3-20.2 percent and its countervailing duties range at 0-21.4 percent.
The case is among a number of trade disputes between the EU and Indonesia, even as they finalized a free trade deal in September.
The addendum does not deliver final rulings on substantive issues. If the panel sides with Indonesia on key points, the EU may be required to adjust or withdraw parts of its duties.
European stainless steel prices steady amid uncertainty over safeguard review, CBAM
Market participants reported limited activity, with mills struggling to push through price increases.
“At the moment, we’re not seeing any notable changes, neither in pricing nor in demand,” a distributor in Italy said. “While the mills continue to push for increases, their efforts haven’t gained traction so far.
“Prices remain under pressure and, in some cases, reflect the urgency of sellers needing liquidity, particularly those without their own financial stock,” the distributor added.
Fastmarkets’ monthly price assessment for stainless steel cold-rolled sheet, 2mm, grade 304, transaction domestic, delivered North Europe, was €2,300-2,400 ($2,699-2,816) per tonne on Friday October 3, unchanged month-on-month.
The corresponding price for grade 316 was slightly higher month on month, restoring the industry-standard premium over grade 304 at €1,300 per tonne, in line with higher alloy surcharge costs.
Fastmarkets’ monthly price assessment for stainless steel cold-rolled sheet, 2mm, grade 316, transaction domestic, delivered North Europe, was €3,600-3,700 ($4,225-4,342) per tonne on Friday, widening upwards from €3,600-3,650 per tonne a month earlier.
Fastmarkets’ monthly assessment for stainless steel cold-rolled sheet 316 2mm alloy surcharge domestic, Europe was €3,187-3,283 per tonne on October 3, up by €60-70 per tonne from €3,127-3,213 per tonne on September 5.
Stainless steel producers reported lead times of four to five weeks.
Inventory levels remain high in Italy and Poland, according to a producer in the south of Europe, while levels in the central and western regions are closer to normal.
“[Offer] prices for November delivery [are] increasing [by] about €20 per tonne,” the producer said.
But other market participants said that the willingness of some mills to raise their prices had not translated into actual transactions, with concluded business continuing to reflect current market levels.
“We hear every month that mills want to increase prices by €20 per tonne, but it never happens. Everyone is stocking up imported material ahead of 2026 due to CBAM and new safeguard [measures],” a distributor in Spain said.
The distributor added that some buyers were avoiding imports scheduled to arrive after January 2026, when CBAM is due to take effect.
The European Commission is expected to publish a legal proposal on new trade measures to replace existing safeguards on Tuesday October 7. According to sources, the proposal could include halving duty-free import allowances and raising out-of-quota tariffs to as much as 50%.
Gerber Steel: EU falling behind in green steel transition as China surges ahead
German stainless steel distributor Gerber Steel has criticized the European Union’s slow progress on its green steel transition, noting that the bloc is failing to meet its decarbonization goals.
Alongside these structural shifts, raw material markets in Europe and Asia remain firm. Iron ore futures on the Singapore Exchange are trading above $106/mt, reflecting resilient demand from global steelmakers.
Europe’s missed green steel targets
Instead of driving industrial transformation, Europe’s steel sector is weighed down by regulatory complexity, subsidy debates, and protectionist measures. Many steelmakers have either frozen their conversion plans, postponed projects, or reconsidered investments.
The underlying reasons are clear: unfavorable market conditions, high risk exposure, and insufficient protection from imports. This reliance on policy shields is preventing the bold steps needed for Europe to lead the global green steel transition.
China moves ahead with green steel partnerships
In contrast, China has made tangible progress. Domestic steelmakers have been shifting to low-emission production methods for years and are now preparing to supply greener materials to industrial customers.
A key milestone is the partnership between HBIS Group and BMW Group China, announced in 2022. Starting in 2026, BMW will integrate HBIS green steel into its vehicle production in China. This agreement shows how the shift from carbon-intensive to green steel can be achieved through market- and competition-oriented ways without heavy reliance on subsidies and protectionism.
A lesson from China’s Steel Action Plan
China’s recently-published Steel Action Plan reinforces this trajectory. Its first principle calls for “strengthening industry management to promote survival of the fittest”, signaling a strategy built on innovation, consolidation, and competitive progress.
Gerber Steel contrasts this with Europe’s current path, where additional protectionism and regulatory delays risk leaving the region further behind in the global steel decarbonization race.
European stainless steel prices dip further amid summer lull; distributors cut stocks
Market participants reported limited activity, with many adopting a wait-and-see approach.
“The biggest [factor] is the missing demand from the market,” a distributor in Germany said. “It’s really too early to conclude anything significant, with [most of the market] still on holiday. So we wait and see.”
Prices of stainless steel flat products fell over the month due to the subdued demand and bearish market sentiment.
Fastmarkets’ monthly price assessment for stainless steel cold-rolled sheet, 2mm, grade 304, transaction domestic, delivered North Europe, was €2,300-2,380 ($2,664-2,757) per tonne on August 1, down by €50-60 per tonne from €2,350-2,420 per tonne on July 4.
Fastmarkets’ newly launched monthly price assessment for stainless steel cold-rolled sheet, 2mm, grade 316, transaction domestic, delivered North Europe, was €3,600-3,680 per tonne on August 1.
Many European service centers were trimming inventories, shifting to hand-to-mouth selling, sources told Fastmarkets.
“The strategy in our group is to decrease stock level to a point where service to the customer can still be maintained,” a distributor in Belgium said.
Some distributors said prices may be nearing a floor, citing higher import prices from Asia and reduced supply in Europe due to mill maintenance in August.
“The price has reached its limit for the month,” a distributor in Italy said. “With a forecast of reduced supply and an increase in the price of incoming Asian material, we expect the decline in stainless steel prices to slow.”
Asian stainless steel prices rose in late July, driven by a broader rally in ferrous futures and higher raw material costs, particularly for coking coal and molybdenum.
While sentiment remained largely bearish, a few sources said demand could recover if EU-level trade measures, such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), begin to support domestic production.
“Between September [and] October we can see stability and possibly [an] increase [in prices] for November [and] December. I think CBAM will start in January and will have [an] impact [on the stainless steel market],” a producer said.
The distributor in Italy said, “if the pressure from European producers’ associations and stainless steel service centers on the European Community aimed at protecting European production finally yields a positive result, then we will finally see demand recover.”
Turkey gains export advantage in EU with EAF steelmaking
Barış Yılmaz, a member of the Turkey’s Stainless Industrialists and Business Association (PASİD) and general manager of Komtrade Stainless Steel, has delivered a comprehensive presentation at the Steel Industry Supply Chain International Forum in Taiwan on the production capabilities of Turkey’s steel and stainless steel industries, as well as the country’s green transformation efforts under the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), emphasizing that Turkey is above the global average in low-carbon steel production, which gives the country a competitive edge in markets with strict environmental policies such as the EU.
Stating that Turkey will pay less carbon tax under the CBAM with its production structure and planned green transformation initiatives, Mr. Yılmaz said, “With proper planning, Turkey can become one of the fastest countries in reducing carbon emissions worldwide.”
In Turkey, 70 percent of steel production is based on electric arc furnaces. This rate is above the global average and results in lower carbon emissions. According to Yılmaz, this production structure distinguishes Turkey from countries like South Korea and Vietnam, where only 25 percent and 10 percent of steel production is based on electric arc furnaces, respectively.
CBAM-prompted imports may deepen oversupply in EU
Some European stainless steel buyers expect an influx of material into EU ports towards the end of 2025 as importers attempt to avoid the added administrative and cost burden of CBAM.
The European Commission’s emissions-based Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is currently scheduled for a full rollout from January 1, 2026. Under the current plans, registered declarants – those approved by the Commission to import material – will have to report all imports and their carbon content from that date.
They will also have to buy and submit CBAM certificates to reflect the greenhouse gas emissions generated during the production of the goods they bring into the EU. This means they will effectively pay a charge based on the quantity of carbon emitted during the manufacturing process in the country of origin.
Under changes proposed by the Commission in February, the purchase of CBAM certificates would be delayed until February 1, 2027, however. This is part of a package of measures which aim to simplify the process and further smooth a transition period which started in October 2023. Approval of the amendment was expected as the Stainless Steel Review was published.
The need to report stainless steel imports and their emissions will remain, regardless of the amendments’ approval. Consequently, some MEPS respondents anticipate that import volumes will grow in quarter four. However, others highlight that weak demand may mitigate any upturn in imports.
Any increase in third-country shipments would be an unwelcome development for European mills. MEPS respondents say that the use of Indonesian-origin slabs as a basis for coil production, and a reduction of scrap prices, may be helping to preserve certain producers’ profit margins. Nonetheless, low selling prices are challenging their profitability.
Inventories are rising, meanwhile, due to a combination of low demand and the loss of export business in the United States, following the implementation of 25% Section 232 import tariffs on March 12. Changes to the EU’s import safeguard measures have done little to reduce imports in recent weeks.
The UK plans to roll out its own CBAM scheme in 2027. The EU and UK have agreed to work towards linking their Emissions Trading Systems, effectively exempting shipments between the two from CBAM’s associated cost and administrative burdens.
Mills under price pressure
The quarter one financial results of Europe’s largest stainless producers indicate that oversupply will continue to apply downward pressure to stainless steel prices.
Acerinox reported a 29% quarter-on-quarter increase in melt shop production, to 512,000 tonnes, from its consolidated operations in Europe and the United States. This came despite an acknowledgement that inventories had increased amid pressure from imports, which have increased their share of the European market to 22%.
Acerinox expects US tariffs to improve the profitability of its US operations. However, chief executive Bernado Velázquez raised concerns that many of the exports that previously ended up in the US, and that have lost competitiveness as a result of the tariffs – including European exports – may now end up in the EU.
Outokumpu’s stainless steel deliveries, in Europe, rose by 10.8% quarter-on-quarter and 5% year-on-year, to 318,000 tonnes, in quarter one. The value of the steelmaker’s sales rose by a lesser 9.8% quarter-on-quarter and 3.4% year-on-year due to reduced selling prices.
Shipments from Aperam’s stainless and electrical steels division rose from 401,000 tonnes to 421,000 tonnes quarter-on-quarter. Nonetheless, its earnings before interest and tax declined by 30% quarter-on-quarter and 67% year-on-year, to EUR34m. The decrease was attributed to “intensive pricing pressure in Europe”.
All three producers forecast a more profitable quarter two. However, Aperam chief executive Timoteo Di Maulo said that reliable projections for the remainder of the year are “challenging in the current volatile environment”.
BIR: 2025 to remain challenging for stainless sector
Market conditions for the stainless steel industry are not expected to improve in the coming months amid seasonal lows and a sluggish price environment, with considerable challenges expected for the duration of 2025, Kallanish learns.
Joost van Kleef, chairman of the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) Stainless Steel & Special Alloys Committee, representing Oryx Stainless made the comments in the latest BIR Stainless Mirror.
Elsewhere, Ruggero Ricco, chief executive of Nichel Leghe, has indicated that there is currently minimal evidence suggesting a near-term reversal of the sector’s prolonged downturn.
“The lack of strength in European domestic demand is pushing stainless steel mills to lower prices in a bid to steal customers from each other. This race to the bottom favours Indonesian products, which are much cheaper than integral production with European scrap.” Ricco states.
The scrap market is experiencing a significant decline in both prices and volumes, primarily due to a preference by EU producers for Indonesian nickel pig iron as a more cost-effective solution.
Europe is currently examining its production strategy, evaluating scrap use against the possibility of transitioning to nickel pig iron or direct acquisition of slabs, Ricco argues. For the past six months, scrap prices and sales volumes have been falling in Europe while the US tariffs have considerably impacted the stainless steel market, with Asian nations redirecting their shipments to Europe and other countries, Ricco points out.
The European stainless flat and long markets are facing a significant downturn, characterised by weak order intake across the entire value chain and a persistent downward trajectory in stainless steel coil and derivatives, longs and scrap. Both coil and long product mills in Europe are decreasing their prices and report high stocks (see Kallanish passim).
Multiple sources in the scrap sector, including Ricco, tell Kallanish they expect further declines in the most popular stainless scrap grades, such as 304, in June as values are beginning to fall below €1,200/tonne ($1,355/t) delivered.
Natalia Capra France
US tariffs hit EU stainless longs market
The European market for stainless long steel, including wire rod, bars, and other niche products, is experiencing a persistent decline, with prices reaching their lowest levels in recent years, according to supplier sources.
Two mill executives indicate
In response to contracting consumption, Europe is experiencing what can be characterised as “a new normal”, with mills adjusting their operations by idling equipment for several days each month to align with current demand levels. The stainless longs segment is going through “a recessive phase, not only in Europe but also in the US and Asia”, another northern European mill source comments.
US tariffs are significantly affecting producers in both Asia and Europe. Asian material supply, particularly from China and India, is currently experiencing a shift in direction towards Europe. EU quotas are effectively curbing robust Asia-origin supply but are not entirely halting the flow of material into the market, which “remains huge”, the source adds.
One mill reports ongoing sales in the US; however, US customers have prudently scaled back their orders, opting to purchase only what is essential to mitigate the impact of tariffs. EU mills are believed to have lost about 30% of their sales to the US as a consequence of tariffs.
The EU safeguard revision has proven to be ineffective for the European stainless longs sector. There has been a lack of action at European level to safeguard the segment from significant imports, which is largely attributed to influential lobbying by buyers.
End-user sectors have reported declining longs consumption over the past year. The US oil and gas sector has curtailed investment. One source indicates the current demand driver in Europe is the defence sector, which is anticipated to sustain its momentum due to projected capacity enhancements.
Questioned about potential projections for recovery, both sources concur “there is no outlook”. Certain macroeconomic developments might nevertheless lead to favourable outcomes for the market, including the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
European mills are adopting a long-term perspective, navigating challenges using strategic cost management, while simultaneously pursuing investments focused on vertical integration and expansion. The strategy, which has also been adopted by some European flats producers, seeks to mitigate businesses’ exposure to the cyclical dynamics of the steel industry while diversifying production.
Coil producer Aperam has purchased US specialty steel producer Universal Stainless & Alloy Products as part of its strategy to enhance market position, expand geographic footprint, and diversify product offering. It is targeting high-growth sectors, including aerospace and industrial applications.
At its Imphy site in France, the Luxembourg-based producer is doubling capacity and boosting wire rod supply, serving the aerospace, automotive, and welding consumables industries.
Italian longs producer Cogne Acciai Speciali, a subsidiary of Walsin Lihwa, also intends to strengthen its position in the special steel industry by boosting its portfolio and expertise in the global market. The steelmaker recently expanded its operations by acquiring ComSteel Inox, its main stainless steel scrap supplier, and a portion of Outokumpu’s long products business in Degerfors and Storfors, Sweden (see Kallanish passim).
Cogne and Walsin’s growth strategy focuses on increasing market share in Europe and Asia while enhancing the group’s presence in the US market.
Natalia Capra France
European stainless coil prices decline
The European stainless flat steel market is experiencing a difficult period characterised by sluggish order intake and a downward trend in coil prices, according to stainless processors and service centres.
Several mills in Europe have reduced their prices for May delivery by approximately €20-30/tonne ($22-34), with order books remaining under pressure. A stainless steel producer is reportedly implementing a gradual weekly price reduction, with expectations for this trend to continue. The coil price increases in March did not yield the desired results, as buyers, facing market uncertainty and diminished demand, opted to reduce purchases, Kallanish notes.
Coil supply exceeds demand in Europe. According to one source, last year saw a supply and demand equilibrium, as both Acerinox and Outokumpu halted production amid social unrest.
A service centre in Italy reports its clients are engaging in minimal purchasing activity and continue to execute low-volume transactions, frequently on a back-to-back basis. Service centres are also buying limited quantities to address inventory gaps.
Multiple processors indicate first-quarter sales volumes align with those of Q1 2024; however, margins are experiencing pressure and, in some cases, are falling below cost. Efforts to raise sheet prices have encountered difficulties, with values remaining largely stable in the range of €2,550-2,620/t ex-works, contingent upon volumes and client specifications.
April and May are projected to experience a slowdown, attributed to the Easter holiday and multiple bank holidays in May, particularly in France. A service centre in northern Europe confirms the market is slow in Italy, France, and Germany, and there is no appetite for risk or speculation. The company is focusing on diversification, trying to stay away from commodity products where competition is tough and prices are under pressure.
European mills are quoting €2,450/t for stainless cold rolled coil for May delivery, inclusive of delivery costs. Hot rolled coil prices range from €130-150/t lower, based on volume.
Italian stainless flats prices remain subdued, at approximately €50/t lower than the broader European market. CRC pricing in Italy is at €2,380-2,400/t delivered. HRC in Europe stands at approximately €2,170-2,200/t delivered.
According to Italian steel trade association Assofermet’s April market note, demand for flat and long stainless steel products remains subdued in the country. Nonetheless, a potential rebalancing between supply and demand is anticipated for April. Increased focus on inventory management may limit price declines and help maintain margins.
