EUROFER: steel demand forecast to recover by 3.8% in 2025
EU apparent steel consumption should recover 2.2% on-year in 2025, provided the industrial outlook improves and global tensions ease, Eurofer says in its latest outlook seen by Kallanish. However, this is a downward revision from the previous forecast after 2024 consumption is also expected to have declined deeper than previously thought.
2024 demand is expected to have fallen 2.3% versus 2023, compared to Eurofer’s forecast last October of a 1.8% drop. Demand in 2025 had been forecast then to recover by 3.8%.
In any case, no improvement in apparent steel consumption is expected in the first quarter, and consumption volumes are expected to remain far below pre-pandemic levels.
Q3 2024 consumption is confirmed to have declined 0.9% on-year, while domestic deliveries fell 2.3%. EU steel imports inched up 1% in Q3, maintaining a high, 28% market share. EU exports rose 4%, driven by flat products.
Expectations for the recovery in steel-using sector output in 2025 have also been revised down. This is now expected to grow 0.9% versus the October forecast of 1.6%. Steel-using sector output in 2024 is thought to have declined 3.3% versus the previous forecast for a 2.7% drop, due mainly to expected drops in construction and automotive output.
Economic uncertainty will continue to take its toll in the coming quarters despite monetary easing by the European Central Bank, the effects of which will not be fully visible in the short term, Eurofer notes.
The Steel Weighted Industrial Production (SWIP) index dropped for the third consecutive quarter in Q3, by 4.1% on-year.
The outlook remains dominated by “a worsening combination of uncertainties in energy prices, weak manufacturing sectors’ conditions, inflation still above target levels, severe geopolitical tensions and economic challenges, including possible future trade tensions,” Eurofer notes.
Its director general, Axel Eggert, adds: ““We can no longer cope with a situation where external factors beyond steelmakers’ control – massive steel dumping, uncompetitive energy and carbon prices, collapsing demand, trade and geopolitical tensions – are structurally undermining our industry. The initiatives the European Commission will put forward in the coming weeks will determine the future of the EU steel industry, its quality jobs and, with it, the future of EU manufacturing, competitiveness and security.”
Adam Smith Poland
Eurofer trims outlook for 2024 steel consumption
According to Eurofer, approximately 129 million tonnes of steel represented the apparent steel demand of Europe last year. This levels is the same as 2020, when Europe suffered the impact of the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. As a consequence, demand fell by more than 6% y-o-y in 2023, the fourth annual decline recorded during the last five years.
In 2024 apparent steel demand is set to recover by about 5.6%, not enough to return to the volumes achieved in 2022.
The slower-than-expected recovery of apparent consumption is caused by the persistent weakness of real steel demand expected for 2024. This year, real demand should drop 0.4% below 2023, folowing the last year’s y-o-y decline of 3.1%.
“In 2024, conditional on more favourable developments in the industrial outlook and improvement in steel demand, apparent steel consumption is set to recover (+5.6%) albeit at a slower pace than previously forecasted (+7.6%). The overall evolution of steel demand remains subject to very high uncertainty,” Eurofer explains.
Within a framework of weak steel demand, in 2023 the market share of imports out of the total consumption in Europe remained high. Eurofer calculated that in Q3 2023, the share was still 27%, including finished and semi-finished products.
Emanuele Norsa Italy
