EU sees more steel HRC imports from Turkey, Ukraine in 2024 as Asian suppliers lose positions
Some suppliers, however, such as Turkey and Ukraine, managed to benefit from the situation by being the safest choices for HRC imports into the EU, while some Asian suppliers appeared to lose their positions in the European market, according to data from the Global Trade Tracker (GTT).
Hot-rolled coil is used mainly in the automotive industry and the construction sector. Total imports into the EU came to 8.43 million tonnes for the period January-November 2024, GTT data showed, with the statistics for the full year not yet complete.
Compared with the corresponding period of 2023, this represents a decrease of 6.77% from 9.04 million tonnes.
Imported volumes of HRC were 9.24 million tonnes for the full year of 2023, with the peak for the five years 2020-24 seen in 2021, when imports totaled 10.28 million tonnes.
Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia was among the main suppliers of HRC to the EU, exporting 1.71 million tonnes of HRC in 2020 and 2.24 million tonnes in 2021. These volumes started to decrease after the invasion and were stopped completely after the EU imposed trading sanctions against Russia.
Consequently, Russia’s share of HRC imports into the EU was gradually taken up by other supplier sources, such as India, Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, Egypt, South Korea and Indonesia, which have been offering competitive prices to the European market.
In 2022, some suppliers managed gradually to increase their deliveries to the bloc, with the difference between domestic HRC prices and imported prices having reached almost €100 ($103) per tonne.
For example, Fastmarkets daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, averaged €907.20 ($933.66) per tonne in June 2022, while the corresponding assessment for steel hot-rolled coil, import, cfr main port Northern Europe, averaged €816.00 ($893.80) per tonne in the same month. The difference was €91.20 ($93.86) per tonne.
This trend continued in 2023, allowing some overseas suppliers to secure a bigger market share. For example, in 2023, HRC deliveries from Vietnam totaled 1.15 million tonnes, almost a threefold increase from 406,045 tonnes in 2022.
This tendency, however, has triggered a series of protectionist measures by the EU to safeguard its domestic steel sector. The European Commission started to impose tougher safeguard measures, launched an anti-dumping investigation into several HRC origins, and announced a new review of safeguards.
Stringent protectionist measures were also sought by the European steel industry.
As a result, in August 2024, the European Commission announced an anti-dumping investigation into HRC originating in Egypt, India, Japan and Vietnam.
Further, the Commission announced a new steel safeguard review in December 2024.
The latest review of the safeguard measures only came into force on July 1, 2024, with the introduced 15% cap per country over the tariff rate quota (TRQ) volume initially available in each quarter, for HRC and steel wire rod in particular.
With the implementation of the 15% cap per country over the TRQ, each nation under the category “other countries” is supposed to supply no more than 555,555 tonnes per year of HRC to the EU. This resulted in rapid exhaustion of some countries’ quotas in 2024, with the same trend now being seen in the first quarter of 2025.
If the total awaiting allocation (see table below) exceeds or even approaches the amount available for use under the TRQ, this should be taken as an indication that the quota will soon be exhausted, according to the European Commission.
Protectionist measures intended to support domestic prices
The year 2024 turned out to be a challenging period for the European steel industry, with low demand from the main steel-consuming sectors inhibiting the market.
In addition, some leading automotive companies in the region admitted that they were planning significant output cuts, which would inevitably affect the HRC market, Fastmarkets understands.
As a result, HRC prices in Europe have dropped to their lowest since 2020. Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe, averaged €549.25 per tonne in October 2024.
During the period 2020-24, lower prices were seen only in 2020, when the Covid-19 crisis brought significant uncertainty to the market.
Despite the slight price improvement in the final two months of 2024, sluggish demand would probably hinder a more significant price rebound in the first months of this year, industry sources told Fastmarkets.
But all protectionist measures were expected to put a further limit on the availability of imported HRC in the EU this year, and in this way support the domestic prices.
Turkey, Ukraine still among safest options
With the EU safeguard measures suppressing the incentives to buy overseas-origin coil, Turkey and Ukraine turned out to be among the safest trading partners from which to buy HRC.
According to GTT, the HRC volumes imported from Turkey into the EU reached 1.21 million tonnes in 2024, a huge increase of 85.40% compared with 2023, when imports from Turkey came to 653,311 tonnes.
But 2023 could not be considered representative for Turkish HRC supplies to the EU, due to the two massive earthquakes in the Middle Eastern country in February of that year, which affected the south of the country. Some of Turkey’s leading flat steel manufacturers are located in this region and they were forced to stop production at the time.
Besides, the region affected by the earthquakes needed reconstruction and, after the Turkish mills resumed operations, they were less focused on exporting to the EU, and more on covering the domestic demand. Turkey even postponed some protectionist measures to facilitate the imports of flat steel products.
The disruption to steel supplies from Turkey as a result of the earthquakes led to more HRC supplies coming into the EU from Asian partners.
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GTT data also showed that, in 2022, exports of Turkey-origin coil to the EU reached 1.20 million tonnes, a volume close to that of 2024. But despite the fluctuations, Turkey has been gradually increasing its HRC supplies to the EU.
Ukraine also increased its exports of HRC to the EU last year, with the total volume reaching 997,985 tonnes. Compared with 722,653 tonnes in 2023, this was an increase by 38.10%.
In 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the nation’s HRC exports to the EU amounted to 509.934 tonnes.
India stable, but other Asian partners lose positions
Despite the trade risks and safeguard measures, India remains Asia’s main importer of HRC into the EU, GTT data shows. From January to November 2024, the volumes imported from the nation reached 1.37 million tonnes, up by 16.96% year on year.
Other Asian trading partner nations, however, did not report such results. For example, the amount of HRC imported from Taiwan was 897,031 tonnes for the first 11 months of last year, down by 27.77% compared with the same months of 2023.
A similar trend could be observed for HRC imported from Japan, which totaled 837,169 tonnes for the period from January to December last year, a decline by 23.17% year on year.
The total volume of Vietnamese HRC imported in January-November 2024 was 701,461 tonnes, down by 39.09% compared with the previous year.
Imports of HRC from South Korea to the EU were also down over January to December last year, reaching 575,386 tonnes, a decline by 38.81% compared with 2023.
Russia struggles to find export destinations
With the implementation of the European sanctions against Russia, exporting HRC to Europe became impossible.
In addition to countries and companies rejecting Russian steel exports, the prices achievable in the few countries that were still willing to do business with Russia have continued to fall, industry sources told Fastmarkets.
Russia was also struggling with weak domestic consumption, they added, which put additional pressure on its steel sector.
Turkey overshoots European OCS quota, hollow sections scarce
Turkey has overutilized its TRQ for organic coated sheets shipped to the European Union by 35%, while hollow sections, large welded tubes, and other welded pipes have low percentages, ranging from 14% to 5%, as of January 3, the second working day of 2025, Kallanish notes from the EU customs portal.
Turkey submitted 21,036 tonnes for customs clearance out of its allocated 15,544t TRQ for organic coated sheets in Q1 2025, meaning it has over-subscribed by 35%.
Hollow sections have already submitted 84,015t for clearance out of the 97,299t TRQ, with only 14% or 13,285t still available for Q1.
The availability of large welded tubes is 10%, or 1,505t, as 13,262t of the 14,768t TRQ have already been submitted for allocation.
For other welded pipes, only 5% or just 204t remain available, as 3,562t out of the 3,766 tonnes TRQ is claimed.
| Product | Quota 01.01- 31.03.2025 | Awaiting allocation | Available | Avaliable, TRQ % |
| HR sheets, strips | 464,844 | 9,382 | 455,461 | 98 |
| Organic coated sheets | 15,544 | 21,036 | -5,492 | -35 |
| Stainless CR sheets, strips | 20,599 | 1,555 | 19,045 | 92 |
| Merchant bars, light sections | 104,811 | 7,275 | 97,537 | 93 |
| Rebars | 93,361 | 1,572 | 91,789 | 98 |
| Wire rod | 116,424 | 45,892 | 70,531 | 61 |
| Railway material | 1,539 | 191 | 1,349 | 88 |
| Gas pipes | 48,890 | 22,422 | 26,467 | 54 |
| Hollow sections | 97,299 | 84,015 | 13,285 | 14 |
| Large welded tubes | 14,768 | 13,262 | 1,505 | 10 |
| Other welded pipes | 3,766 | 3,562 | 204 | 5 |
| Wire | 50,817 | 119 | 50,697 | 100 |
Source: EU TARIC, as of 3 January. Calculated by Kallanish
Elina Virchenko UAE
Turkey automaker Tofas pauses output for two weeks for maintenance
Major Turkish automaker, Tofas, a joint venture between Koc Holding and Stellantis, has announced two weeks of production stoppage as of Jan. 2.
“Due to the end-of-year stock taking and programmed maintenance activities, manufacturing activities at our Bursa factory will be suspended from Jan. 2 to Jan. 14,” the company said in a regulatory filing.
The plant would restart manufacturing operations from Jan. 15, Tofas said.
The producer previously announced Dec. 9 it laid off 13% of its workers after deciding in September to continue production with one shift after suspending production for more than a month from July 16 amid low demand.
Tofas has a vehicle production capacity of 450,000 units/year.
Turkey’s vehicle production declined 8.9% year over year to 1.36 million units over January-November 2024, while vehicle exports fell 1.2% to 1 million units, according to the latest Turkish Automotive Manufacturers’ Association data.
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Turkish HRC at $565/mt ex-works Dec. 27, down 20% since the start of 2024.
CBAM: Turkish industry could face scope 3 challenges
Turkey’s electric arc furnace-dominated steel industry is well-positioned to benefit from reduced emissions requirements under the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), says Çolakoğlu chief executive Uğur Dalbeler. However, Scope 3 emissions, tied to the transportation of raw materials and finished products, remain a challenge.
“Turkey is in a stronger position, not only because 75% of its steel production is EAF-based but also due to its over 15 million tonnes of HRC production capacity from EAF, with very low emissions and good experience and good [quality steel production] expertise, Dalbeler tells Kallanish.
The Turkish government has eased regulations for manufacturers to establish renewable energy capacities, aligning Turkey’s renewable energy ratio with that of Germany and Italy. This progress positions Turkey to achieve climate neutrality in Scope 2 emissions.
Although Scope 3 emissions remain a challenge, Turkey still holds a competitive advantage over countries like China, Japan, and Korea.
The primary hurdle to decarbonising the steel industry is securing funding for net-zero projects, Dalbeler says. Experts argue that while funding exists, the projects themselves are often not compelling enough. Wood Mackenzie estimates that achieving the 1.5-degree temperature reduction scenario globally will require $78 trillion, with 90% of energy derived from renewables – a target that seems improbable.
Furthermore, unresolved issues around clean hydrogen availability, storage, and CCUS utilisation persist. The IEA has downgraded CCUS’s role in achieving net-zero from 53% to 37% by 2050, though reaching the target remains feasible for the steel industry.
Dalbeler advocates a more pragmatic approach, emphasising efficiency improvements in production and processing to reduce CO2 intensity. “If we can increase yield in every step, we can significantly lower the CO2 intensity of the final product,” he explains.
He highlights the need to focus on the BF/BOF production route, as creating new EAF capacities is not a comprehensive solution due to limited scrap availability and the scarcity of high-quality ore for direct reduction.
“We need to concentrate on [decarbonising] the BF/BOF route of steel because creating new EAF capacities will not solve the problem. Availability of scrap is limited and the majority is only good for long products. High quality ore for direct reduction is also limited; therefore, we need to reduce BF/BOF emissions, especially as this type of steel production grows in India and Southeast Asia,” he notes.
Setting global CO2 emission limits per tonne of steel, akin to emissions standards for cars, could address both excess capacity and emissions issues. “There’s a significant difference between old and new-generation BFs. We need a global consensus on permissible CO2 emissions per tonne of steel. Anything exceeding this limit should not be produced or traded,” he emphasises.
Dalbeler also stresses the importance of global standards for measuring and standardising greenhouse gas emissions.
Rather than investing in new steelmaking capacities, he suggests prioritising the optimisation of existing facilities. This would enable funds allocated for new EAF projects to be redirected to more impactful areas.
Elina Virchenko UAE
Pilot phase of Turkey’s ETS on track for 2025 launch: official
Turkey’s plans to launch its domestic compliance carbon market are on track, with a pilot phase set to start in early 2025, a senior official from the country’s Directorate of Climate Change said Dec. 3.
Speaking at S&P Global Commodity Insight’s Global Carbon Markets Conference in Barcelona, Huseyin Ayaz, who specializes in carbon pricing for the Turkish government, said the establishment of the country’s emissions trading system is moving in the right direction.
“We have completed all the preparation of the drafting process of the ETS, and we are waiting for its assent by the parliament,” said Ayaz, adding that some elements still need to be clarified and updated.
The pilot phase is scheduled to start at the beginning of next year, while the first implementation phase is set to run from 2027 to 2034.
Turkey’s ETS is expected to be similar to the EU Emissions Trading System — where CO2 emissions from regulated sectors have fallen by almost 40% since 2005, when the EU ETS was launched — while also raising billions of euros in revenue from government auctions of carbon allowances.
Turkey’s industrial sectors — refining, metals, chemicals and cement — can be very carbon intensive, and analysts expect the Turkish ETS to have a similar effect as the EU’s carbon market, boosting the uptake of renewable energy and reducing demand for coal and oil-fired electricity generation, while encouraging cleaner technologies across emitting industries.
Currently, the draft ETS regulation mentions that allocated allowances will be distributed to obligated operators within the scope of the ETS through an auction method. These allocations can then be traded in the secondary market, which will be overseen by Turkey’s largest energy exchange EPIAS.
Reality of CBAM
Ayaz also acknowledged that the impact of EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism on the Turkey’s industrial sector will be felt, and having a domestic carbon market will help it manage this risk.
“We know that CBAM is reality for us. We are a candidate country for CBAM as our companies have a huge amount of trade with the EU,” he added.
With the EU’s CBAM set to come into its definitive phase from 2026, Turkish exporters face higher costs, as nearly half of all exports go to the EU.
The EU mechanism imposes a carbon tariff on emission-intensive commodities imported by the EU, including aluminum, cement, electricity, fertilizers, hydrogen, iron and steel. The aim is to level the playing field for EU companies, as most exporting countries do not have a carbon price as high as EU ETS, or do not have a price on emissions at all.
Carbon-pricing programs like the EU ETS are considered an effective and economic way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. As of mid-2024, there were 75 carbon taxes or emissions trading systems in operation, according to the World Bank.
Carbon prices currently vary significantly on a country-to-country basis as there is no global carbon price. Carbon permits under the EU ETS are around five times more expensive than compliance prices in China, the industrial powerhouse of the world.
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed EU Allowances for December 2024 at Eur68.73/mtCO2e ($72.35/mtCO2e) Dec. 2. This compared with China’s compliance emissions price, which was valued at Yuan 102.38 mtCO2e ($14.24/mtCO2e) on Nov. 29, according to the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange.
Gradual rate cuts delay Turkish recovery: economist
Interest rates will come down further and the global economy will grow at around 3% in 2025. Turkey will cut rates by January and continue with a 250 basis point rate cut cycle, but rates will remain elevated and an economic revival is unlikely until at least the second half of 2025, according to Rota Portföy chief economist Özlem Bayraktar Gökşen.
Although not to a point of price stability in developed markets, the reduction in global inflation has been obvious.
The US economy has achieved its soft landing but inflation remains “a little bit sticky”, Gökşen noted at Kallanish Flat Steel 2024 in Istanbul on Thursday. The US could cut rates by 25bps in November and again in December – its reason for doing this is not because it needs to, but rather because the differential between nominal and real interest rates need to be narrowed.
In the eurozone, “the European Central Bank [ECB] needs to give some shock to the economy to see some revival – the motivation is different,” she continued. The ECB’s rate cutting cycle will therefore be longer than the US Federal Reserve’s. There is nevertheless more room for manoeuvre now since inflation has come down significantly.
China’s economic growth outlook is uncertain. “They have the tools to revive the economy. The main problem is we don’t know the timing of the Chinese government to come through with these measures,” she noted. The market has not been satisfied with the fiscal policy response so far, and there are likely to soon be further measures. It is unlikely China will pose a systematic financial risk to the global economy in 2025, she added.
Turkish economic expectations remain encouraging for 2025 thanks to the country’s return last year to orthodox policy. Gökşen expects Turkish inflation at 43-44% this year and 24-25% in 2025, above the central bank’s 2025 target of 14%. “This still means it’s coming down but we have a long way to go,” she observed.
“The main issue on rates is expectations,” she continued. Although the current rate has remained unchanged for months, inflation expectations have not come down. The central bank lost its credibility with its unorthodox policy in previous years. “Every day was a surprise for us,” Gökşen opined.
The bank will continue a 250bps rate cut cycle but rates will remain high as a “guarding effect” for the lira. Higher rates will however result in dampened economic activity. Growth could pick up in H2 amid lower interest rates and increased confidence over the credibility of measures taken so far. Turkish GDP should grow 2.6% in 2024, with growth slowing to 2% next year.
Despite the high rates, Turkey has seen loan growth in the last two months, which it needs to avoid given inflation. Domestic consumption is struggling to come down in the last three years due to Turkish consumer behaviour geared towards consumption, Gökşen concluded.
Adam Smith Poland
Turkish rebar export prices inch down amid weak European demand
Platts assessed Turkish exported rebar at $575/mt FOB, down by $2.50/mt July 16 as Turkish mills returned from the Democracy and National Unity public holiday July 15 to weak demand from the buy side.
Throughout the day, multiple sources indicated a range of workable levels and reported varying mill offers.
Tradable values were indicated ranging from $570-$575/mt FOB while mill offers were heard at $575-$585/mt FOB, with most reported at a range of $580-$590/mt FOB. A bid was reported at $570/mt FOB.
“It’s a bit early to comment,” a Turkish-based trader said, adding that for any activity to take place “usually takes one to two weeks after the vacation or a faster scrap market.”
The trader saw near-term sentiment as bearish amid slow trading.
A Turkish mill source reported that mills were able to offer at $575/mt FOB, indicating that achieving $570/mt FOB would be possible, but other mill sources did not repeat this level.
Another mill source from Marmara reported a bid level at $570/mt FOB, while offer levels were minimum at $580/mt FOB, adding that no rebar deals have been heard in recent days.
“From last week nothing has changed,” another trader said, adding that rebar tradables were at $580/mt FOB.
“It seems that the mills are currently observing the market and their product sales.” an EU-based trader source said, adding that the August cargoes have not been completed for Turkish mills, indicating that there may still be ongoing negotiations and transactions.
In related markets, scrap import prices to Turkey remained stable July 16. Platts assessed Turkish imports of premium heavy melting scrap at $390/mt CFR Turkey on the day. Platts assessed the daily outright spread between Turkish export rebar and import scrap at $185/mt July 16, narrowing by $2.50/mt.
Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Semra Ugur
Çolakoğlu focuses on AI-supported sustainable steelmaking projects
Large Turkish steelmaker Çolakoğlu Metalurji has focused on artificial intelligence-supported sustainable production projects while increasing its renewable energy investments, Operations Director Ozgur Ozsoy said.
According to a July 5 statement from Çolakoğlu, citing Ozsoy’s comments to local magazine ST industry’s July edition, the company has new projects to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions by using AI-connected digital solutions and new renewable energy investments.
“We have reached the final stage in our AI-supported process control project in our meltshop, which will ensure process stability in production,” Ozsoy said.
Çolakoğlu had achieved a heat size of 298.2 mt at its new vacuum degassing plant, Ozsoy said, adding that it has also reached a carbon content of 5 parts per million (ppm) after decarburization, a world record.
He did not, however, provide the company’s current carbon emission levels.
Çolakoğlu is currently able to produce special steels like IF grades, ULC grades and stainless steel at its plant.
Colakoglu commissioned its second reheating furnace in June to increase its hot-rolling capacity and meet demand more effectively.
The company currently has a bar output capacity of 1 million mt/year and an HRC production capacity of 4.5 million mt/year.
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Turkish domestic HRC at $585/mt EXW on June 28, down 18.2% since the start of 2024.
CBAM to change dynamics of global steel trade: Kardemir CEO
Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the EU’s Green Deal are expected to change the dynamics of the global trade in the coming years, as producers’ which will not invest in reducing their carbon emissions will lose their competitiveness due to the new carbon tax burden, Ismail Demir, chairman of Turkey’s largest integrated long steel producer Kardemir said.
“Turkey, which is making half of its exports to the European Union, could not remain out of these regulations,” Demir said in a statement that he made at the company’s 29th Ordinary General Meeting May 30.
Following the announcement of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by the European Union, Turkey unveiled its ‘Green Deal Action Plan’ in July 2021 as a road map to realize the transformation of Turkey to a more source-efficient and a green economy.
Highlighting that CBAM will directly affect steel, aluminum, cement and fertilizer sectors, Demir said they have focused on low-carbon steel production in recent years.
“In this regard, our studies are ongoing to build our new planned blast furnace with a technology that fits our green steel target,” he said, adding that the new blast furnace will raise Kardemir’s crude steel capacity by 1 million mt/year to 3.5 million mt/year.
Kardemir is aiming to reduce carbon emissions by 15% until 2030 and to become carbon neutral by 2053, the company said, without citing the current carbon emission level of Kardemir.
Kardemir currently has a 2.5 million mt/year liquid steel capacity and produces billet, rebar, wire rod, sections and angles. It has expanded its product range over the last few years to include rails, railway wheels, thick wire rods, and heavy sections.
Turkish mills’ rebar export prices inched lower on May 30, amid lower mill offer prices and lower-priced deals in a slow market.
Platts assessed Turkish exported rebar at $572.50/mt FOB May 30, down $2.50/mt on day, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data.
Cenk Can
British Steel bags Turkey rail contract
British Steel has won a multi-million-pound contract to supply rail to Turkey. It will deliver tens of thousands of tonnes of track for a new high-speed electric railway connecting Mersin with the cities of Adana, Osmaniye and Gaziantep.
It will help create a lower-emission transport link between Turkey’s second-largest container port and inland cities more than 150 miles away, with the project expected to reduce CO2 emissions by more than 150,000 tonnes/year, the steelmaker says.
UK Export Finance (UKEF), the UK government’s export credit agency, has underwritten €781 million ($847m) of financing to support construction of the 286km railway.
“This is the start of what we expect to be a new unique partnership between British Steel, UKEF and international contractors,” British Steel commercial director – rail Craig Harvey says in a note sent to Kallanish. “The ability to combine world-leading quality rail with a world-leading finance solution for supply into global markets and networks is an unparalleled supply chain solution. Looking forward, we are very excited about what this will achieve.”
The first shipments of rail will be transported from British Steel to Turkey in the second quarter. It is manufactured in Scunthorpe and is 60E1 in grade R260, each at 36 metres in length.
Adam Smith Poland