Tariff uncertainty prompts Worldsteel to pause short-range outlook
Uncertainty surrounding tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump has prompted the World Steel Association (worldsteel) to postpone its April 2025 Short Range Outlook (SRO), Kallanish discovers from an association press release.
“Worldsteel believes that the imposition of tariffs by the US administration could render the SRO outdated,” states the press release. “The SRO will be reviewed and reissued at an appropriate time.”
Brussels, Belgium-based worldsteel issues a biannual SRO for steel demand coinciding with its general meetings of members in April and October.
The organisation is one of the industry’s largest global associations, with members in every major steel-producing country.
Austria decreases crude steel production in February
Austria decreased crude steel production in February, according to worldsteel data.
Output amounted to 510,673 tonnes, down 11.5% down year-on-year, Kallanish notes. In January, output amounted to 599,000t, 5.9% less on-year.
In January-February, the country produced 1.1 million tonnes of steel, compared to 1.21mt in the same period last year.
Austria remained in 23rd place in the ranking of top global steel producers, the data show.
Overall EU output in February was 7.1% less on-year at 10.1mt. January-February production was at 20.4mt compared to 21.5mt in the same period last year.
Austrian steelmaker voestalpine expressed mixed feelings about US steel tariffs, as the firm operates multiple sites in the US, which it plans to expand, while actual imports from Austria into the US are limited (see Kallanish passim).
Earlier, the steelmaker successfully commissioned the profile rolling mill engineered by Friedrich KOCKS. Following the completion of all work and successful commissioning, the new equipment is now fully integrated into the hot tube rolling mill at the Kindberg site in Styria.
Voestalpine recently said it performed well in the first half of its business year through March 2025 despite the difficult economic environment in Europe. Demand remained strong from the railway infrastructure and aerospace sectors, and for high-bay warehousing systems made from advanced steel profiles.
A decline in volumes was partly offset by a better product mix with higher profits, while lower sales prices were partly compensated by reduced raw materials values.
Svetoslav Abrossimov Bulgaria
Global crude steel production grows in December but declines overall in 2025
But total production for the full year 2024 declined by 0.9% to 1,839.4 million tonnes, reflecting weaker demand and economic uncertainty across several major producing regions.
China and India lead December growth
China, the world’s largest steel producer, recorded an 11.8% year-on-year increase in December output to 76.0 million tonnes, despite a 1.7% decline in total 2024 production to 1,005.1 million tonnes, worldsteel said on Friday January 24.
The late-year boost may be attributed to increased demand due to restocking ahead of the Lunar New Year and incoming transport-affecting winter weather, as well as a greater focus on exports. There was also positive news a month earlier in November around year-on-year increases in new home sales.
But slow domestic consumption weighed on output over the whole of 2025, driven by a depressed property market and lackluster government stimulus policies.
India also saw strong growth in December, with production rising by 9.5% to 13.6 million tonnes. This contributed to a 6.3% annual increase, bringing total output for the year to 149.6 million tonnes, showcasing strong domestic demand in the south Asian country’s steel market.
Europe and the Americas: mixed performance
Germany posted a 4.1% year-on-year rise in December output to 2.7 million tonnes, with annual production increasing by 5.2% to 37.2 million tonnes. The European Union as a whole saw a 7.2% increase in December output to 9.6 million tonnes, while full-year production rose by 2.6% to 129.5 million tonnes.
But while crude steel output in the European steel sector has improved, weak demand in downstream markets continues to be a concern for market participants.
The European Steel Association (Eurofer) has called for an urgent meeting and EU summit to aid the region’s steel industry “in crisis”.
“The EU steel sector was already suffering from the ongoing energy and raw material crises, and on top of this, the EU market is once again being flooded by cheap foreign steel,” the association said in a letter addressed to the EU Commission’s president and vice president that was published on December 6, 2024.
Meanwhile, North America saw a 4.3% decline in December output to 8.8 million tonnes, contributing to a 4.2% annual drop to 105.9 million tonnes. And the United States, the dominant producer in the region, posted a 2.4% decrease in 2024 output to 79.5 million tonnes, reflecting ongoing challenges in industrial demand and construction activity.
With recent policy shifts in the US, concerns have arisen about potential new tariffs on steel imports, which could significantly impact the US steel industry.
In South America, Brazil’s production edged up by 1.8% year on year in December to 2.6 million tonnes, while full-year production grew by 5.3% to 33.7 million tonnes.
UK records largest annual decline
The United Kingdom recorded the steepest decline in crude steel production among the top 40 producers, with output falling by 29.0% year on year to 4.0 million tonnes in 2024. This sharp drop reflects ongoing challenges in the UK steel industry, including high energy costs, weak domestic demand, negative economic conditions, issues of competitiveness and structural shifts toward decarbonization.
Russia and other CIS nations continue to struggle
Russia remained one of the worst-performing top ten steel producers, with December output falling by 8.6% year on year to 5.7 million tonnes and full-year production dropping 7.0% to 70.7 million tonnes. Economic sanctions, weak domestic demand, and competition from cheaper Chinese exports weighed on the sector.
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) member nations recorded a 6.8% year-on-year decline in December to 6.8 million tonnes and a 4.2% annual decline to 84.8 million tonnes in 2024.
Ukraine, however, was an exception in the region, posting a 21.6% year-on-year increase in crude steel production to 7.6 million tonnes in 2024, reflecting efforts to revive its steel industry despite ongoing geopolitical challenges following Russia’s unprovoked invasion in 2022.
Turkey’s strong annual growth dented by December weakness
Türkiye’s crude steel output rose by 9.4% in 2024 to 36.9 million tonnes, marking one of the fastest growth rates among top producers. But December output fell by 7.6% year on year to 3.0 million tonnes.
EU records first production growth in 3 years
The EU recorded in 2024 its first annual crude steel produciton growth since 2021, but output still remained below the Covid-stricken year of 2020 as financial difficulties hit certain steelmakers.
EU crude steel produciton increased 2.6% on-year in 2024 to 129.49 million tonnes, Kallanish notes from worldsteel data.
Largest regional producer Germany saw production rebound 5.2% on-year in 2024 to 37.2mt, although this came from a multi-year low base in 2023. Output remained below pre-Covid tonnages; however, it surpassed 2020 and was the highest since 2019, with the exception of the post-Covid rebound year, 2021.
Second-largest producer Italy fared much worse, seeing crude steel output drop 5% in 2024 – from an already-low base – to 20.01mt, amid continuing production difficulties at the Taranto steelworks, one of Europe’s largest. This was the lowest production figure since 2009.
France saw 2024 output rise 7.6% to 10.76mt, but from a multi-year-low base, with 2023 seeing a blast furnace fire take capacity offline. Spanish output rose 3.3% to 11.82mt, the highest since 2019 except for 2021.
EU output last year was also boosted by the return to operation of the blast furnace at Ijmuiden, which boosted Netherlands output 36% to 6.37mt, the highest since 2019 except for 2021. Belgian output rose an estimated 21% to 7.1mt, also the highest since 2019 except for 2021. Polish output grew an estimated 10% to 7.08mt but from a multi-year-low base.
Amid production stoppages at various Liberty Steel plants, crude steel production fell in Czech Republic, Romania and Hungary. In the first of these countries, output plunged 25% to 2.55mt, as activity at its largest steelworks, Ostrava, ground to a halt and the plant was put up for sale.
In Romania, output dropped an estimated 16% to 1.36mt – Galati is Liberty’s only remaining operational plant in Central and Eastern Europe. Hungarian output fell to an estimated 240,000t, down 50% versus 2023 and versus 1.5mt in 2020.
European steelmakers’ association Eurofer has been lobbying relentlessly for tighter EU steel import restrictions and an EU steel and industrial policy amid increased costs and declining competitiveness in the bloc. The new European Commission, which started its term in December, is currently working on both issues.
Worldsteel: Global steel production rises 1% year over year in October
Global crude steel production reached 152.1 million mt in October, rising 1% year over year and 5.9% from September, according to World Steel Association data published Nov. 22.
This brought total production for the first 10 months of 2024 to 1.5 billion mt, down 1.6% year over year.
China produced 81.9 million mt in October, increasing 2.9% from a year earlier and up 6.5% from September, accounting for 53.8% of the total global crude steel output.
This brought China’s January-October volume to 850.7 million mt, down 3% year over year.
The world’s second-largest steel producer India saw production edge up 1.7% year over year to 12.5 million mt in October, which was also up 6.8% month over month, the data showed.
India’s cumulative January-October output rose 5.6% to 123 million mt, according to worldsteel.
Japan’s October production was 6.9 million mt, down 7.8% year over year but up 4.5% from September, with January-October output down 3.7% year over year at 70.2 million mt.
US output in October was 6.6 million mt, down 2% year over year and down 1.5% month over month, taking January-October production to 66.7 million mt, down 1.9% from the previous year.
Russia was estimated to have produced 5.6 million mt in October, down 15.2% year over year and steady from September, bringing its estimated January-October output to 59.4 million mt, a decline of 6.8% from the previous year.
South Korea produced 5.4 million mt of crude steel in October, down 1.8% year over year and 1.8% from September, with the 10-month volume down 5.1% from the prior year at 53.1 million mt, the data showed.
Europe Jan-Oct output up 2.1%
Crude steel production in the EU rose 5.5% year over year and 6.2% month over month to 11.3 million mt in October, the data showed.
The EU’s January-October volume was 109.3 million mt, climbing 2.1% year over year.
Germany, the largest steel producer in Europe, saw its crude steel production rise 14.7% year over year to 3.2 million mt, which was also 7% higher from September.
Germany produced 31.6 million mt crude steel in January-October, up 5% year over year, the data showed.
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Northwest European HRC at Eur560/mt ex-works Ruhr on Nov. 21, down 18% from the start of 2024.
Turkey produced 3 million mt of steel in October, up 0.7% year over year, brining the 10-month total to 30.9 million mt, rising 12.4% year over year.
Brazil’s October crude steel production also rose 16.2% year over year to 3.1 million mt, while Iran’s fell 1.9% year over year to 3 million mt.
Crude steel data covers the 71 countries that report to worldsteel, accounting for about 98% of global crude steel production.
October production of pig iron from 37 countries was 104.4 million mt, rising 0.2% year over year and 4.5% from September, the data showed, while direct-reduced iron produced from 13 countries amounted to 12.8 million mt, up 16.9% year over year and 19.9% higher than the previous month, the data showed.
worldsteel: global steel production falls 6.5% on year in Aug
Global crude steel production totaled 144.8 million metric tons in August, dropping 6.5% year on year and down 4.9% from July, according to World Steel Association data published Sept. 24.
This brought total production for the first eight months of 2024 to 1.25 billion metric tons, down 1.5% on the year.
China produced 77.9 MMt in August, down 10.4% on the year and 6% from July, making up 53.8% of total global crude steel output.
This brought China’s January-August volume to 691.4 MMt, down 3.3% year on year.
The world’s second-largest steel producer India saw production grow 2.6% year on year in August to 12.3 MMt, which was also up 1% month on month, the data showed.
India’s cumulative January-August output rose 6.5% to 98.5 MMt, according to worldsteel.
Japan’s August production was 6.9 MMt, down 3.9% on the year and 3.2% lower than July, with January-August output down 2.9% on the year at 56.7 MMt.
US output in August was 7 MMt, edging up 0.7% year on year and up 3.4% on the month, taking January-August production to 53.8 MMt, down 1.7% year on year.
Russia was estimated to have produced 5.8 MMt in August, falling 11.5% on the year and down 0.7% month on month, bringing its estimated January-August output to 48.5 MMt, down 4.9% on the year.
South Korea produced 5.5 MMt of crude steel in August, down 2.2% year on year and down 0.9% from July, with the eight-month volume down 5.5% on the year at 42.5 MMt.
Europe Jan-Aug output up 2.2%
For the European Union, crude steel production rose 2.2% on the year to 9.1 MMt in August, although this was 17% lower on the month, the data showed.
Europe’s January-August volume was 87.2 MMt, climbing 1.5% on the year.
Germany, the largest steel producer in Europe, saw its crude steel production edge 0.5% higher on the year to 2.9 MMt, although this was down 8.6% on the month.
In January-August, Germany produced 25.4 MMt of crude steel, up 4% year on year, the data showed.
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed domestic HRC prices in Northern Europe at Eur555/mt ex-works Ruhr Sept. 23, down 20% since the start of 2024.
Of the top 10 producers, Turkey saw the largest gains in August, with output rising 13.8% year on year to 3.1 MMt, according to the data, also representing a 3% increase from July. Eight-month production was up 14.8% on the year at 24.8 MMt.
Brazil produced 3 MMt in August, rising 7.3% year on year, but down 3% from July, while Iran’s monthly output was 1.4 MMt, falling 9.9% on the year and 22.7% lower than the previous month.
Brazil’s estimated production over January-August climbed 3.8% on the year to 22.4 MMt, while Iran’s output for the eight-month period rose 1.9% to 19.8 MMt.
October production of pig iron from 37 countries was 102.3 MMt, falling 6.1% year on year, the data showed, while direct reduced iron produced worldwide from 13 countries amounted to 10.5 MMt, up 3.35% year on year, the data showed.
Pig iron output over the January-August period totaled 854.6 MMt, down 3% year on year, while DRI production for the period rose 5.85% on the year to 82.7 MMt.
Crude steel data covers the 71 countries that report to worldsteel, accounting for about 98% of the world’s crude steel production.
