Worldsteel: China’s steel overcapacity won’t be easy to resolve
Edwin Basson, Director General of the World Steel Association (Worldsteel), stated that China’s long standing steel overcapacity can’t be reduced quickly, as it is deeply linked to the structure of the country’s economy.
Speaking to Bloomberg, Basson emphasized, “Shutting down a steel plant creates a chain reaction across other domestic sectors. Therefore, there is no viable short term solution.”
The steel sector was among the first targets of the import tariffs introduced earlier this year by US President Donald Trump, and many countries, including Vietnam, have begun imposing antidumping duties on Chinese steel. Basson said that this trend has reversed roughly 20 years of relative openness in global steel trade: “The open market that existed from 2000 to 2020 is now disappearing. Free movement of goods between continents is a critical issue for the sector.”
China’s demand decreases, exports reach record levels
According to Worldsteel, steel demand in China is expected to decrease by 2% in 2025 and by 1% in 2026. This decline is driving producers to export record volumes despite rising protectionism. China’s steel exports are moving toward an all-time high in 2025, with shipments exceeding 100 million tonnes in the first 11 months of the year. This momentum has also pushed the country’s total trade surplus above 1 trillion USD for the first time in history.
Meanwhile, iron ore futures in Singapore decreased by 0.9% on the first trading day of the week, falling to 102.45 USD per tonne.
A fragmented global market complicates carbon reduction
Rizwan Janjua, Head of Technology at Worldsteel, said that fragmentation in the global steel market is jeopardizing the sector’s climate goals. He noted that steel accounts for around 8% of global carbon emissions and emphasized, “Cleaning up the sector requires unprecedented levels of international cooperation. However, as markets become more divided, ensuring this coordination becomes more difficult.”
Janjua added that the technologies required for emission reduction already exist, but issues related to energy supply and policy misalignment continue to slow progress: “If everyone doesn’t act together, each country will try to optimize only its own system.”

EUROMETAL 75th Anniversary: Wait or adapt to green steel uncertainty?
This article is part of a series on steel distribution association EUROMETAL’s 75th Anniversary conference 2-3 July, discussing challenges and opportunities for the sector from its policy background; trade protection; the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism; green steel; and the evolving role of European steel distribution.
“Climate change will dictate not just what happens in our industry, but in every industry,” said World Steel Association Director General, Edwin Basson, at EUROMETAL’s 75th anniversary event.
Indeed green steel, and its place in the wider decarbonisation of the world’s industries was at the forefront of discussions at the conference, especially as the European steel sector ends a time of transition, proceeding toward financial accountability for its sustainability goals.
However, as the steel industry attempts to meet ambitious sustainability targets, distributors continue to lack an official definition or coherent regulatory framework for green steel, limiting their potential to create or assess demand for decarbonised products, and sustaining stockholder reluctance to trade green steel without a customer lined up in advance.
Transparency opportunities
While many distributors prefer to wait for legislative guidance to generate lead markets for green steel, such as the Industrial Decarbonisation Accelerator Act scheduled for later this year under the European Steel and Metals Action Plan, some distributors are already identifying and capitalising on new opportunities afforded by the industrial transition, like Klockner CEO, Guido Kerkhoff.
In one of the day’s most interesting presentations, Kerkhoff demonstrated how Klockner’s approach to green steel marketing, focussing on Product Carbon Footprints (PCF), could be embedded into distributors’ procurement and data services, cleanly illustrating the value of green steel to consumers.
Emphasising the relative affordability of steel in comparison to other products, Kerkhoff showed that steel – in its ubiquity – premised near unparalleled reductions in the embedded emissions content of end-products at minimal cost, attracting value-generating demand for distributors by making transparent to consumers the benefits of adopting green steel over other decarbonisation routes in their supply chains.
“Sure, steel is a big part of the climate problem,” Kerkhoff said – “but I believe it is a much bigger part of the solution.”
Dr Henrik Adam, President of Eurofer, argued similarly in his own presentation, stating that “steel is not bad per se – instead it is highlighted as it is by far the most used engineering material.”
In his presentation, Kerkhoff said that Klockner’s data services found the majority of their customers could be afforded a 25% reduction in their embedded emissions “today” at a “negligible price premium,” seeing the stimulation of green steel demand as the responsibility of not just regulators, but distributors too.
For example, when looking at a passenger vehicle, Kerkhoff cited that switching to green steel from traditional steel – which accounts for 23% of total emissions of the car – would only result in a 0.7% increase in the end-product price. This was similarly evidenced for white goods, like washing machines – with steel emissions’ share at 25% and a 3.6% end-price increase; for onshore projects at 70% and 3.4%; and for offshore infrastructure at an 83% emissions share for steel against a 5.5% end-price increase on green steel inputs.
Kerkhoff was also keen to differentiate structurally between the green steel and traditional steel markets, arguing that while overcapacity continues to depress the traditional steel markets, a well-supported green steel market in Europe would actually fall into undercapacity – potentially creating strong opportunities for prepared distributors in both in terms of end-consumer demand, and import sourcing.
When challenged on whether the transparency-based PCF approach was too burdensome on the distribution sector amid regulatory ambiguities, Kerkhoff colourfully dismissed these arguments as “bulls**t:”
“At the end of the day, we must remember that steel is cheap, and that we do not produce a single ton of it ourselves,” Kerkhoff addressed his distribution colleagues. “We can and have certified everything – it absolutely can be done. It took a while, sure, but the financial cost was relatively minimal,” he confirmed.
“I believe distribution has more opportunities through transparency than we believe,” Kerkhoff said. ”There is no cheaper way – steel, in a majority of products, is by far the most affordable option to reduce total emissions.”
Cosmin Bakai, global purchasing manager of automotive OEM Autoliv, described a “dominance” of Europe in “non-greenwashed PCF green steel.” He argued that sourcing from Europe could still be competitive when accounting for logistical factors, but that European producers and regulators would have to take care not to undermine this potential against aggressive strategies from exporters like China.
Regulatory ambiguities
Antonio Marcegaglia, CEO of Marcegaglia later addressed Kerkhoff’s presentation, stating that while he acknowledged “the point that [distribution] could participate more directly in the decarbonisation of the industry – the mechanisms of protection are too confused.”
This is not a point to be dismissed lightly, as while a PCF approach does allow carbon reductions to be illustrated to consumers, new definitions or changing policies as to what constitutes green steel threaten to massively devalue material held by stockholders if it is not deemed applicable to official decarbonisation targets.
While not addressed by conference speakers explicitly, McCloskey’s discussions on the sidelines identified the Low Emissions Steel Standard (LESS) as increasingly dominant as a potential standard for green steel classification. LESS takes a site-level rather than a product-level assessment in defining to what extent a steel product is authentically decarbonised, incorporating a sliding scale that lessens the value of carbon reductions the greater the constituent share of scrap steel in its production.
As noted by multiple speakers, scrap steel availability is fundamentally tied to historic production levels and an average steel lifecycle of 40 years. Attendees expected that Europe may see a decoupling of ironmaking and steelmaking, importing hydrogen or natural gas produced direct-reduced iron (DRI) from regions with more competitive natural gas or renewable energy balances.
European authorities have recently passed new supportive mechanisms to protect European competitiveness, such as the Clean Industrial Deal State Aid Framework (CISAF) and consultations to simplify and embed export rebates into the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Yet, as was a common theme at the conference, market stakeholders have little confidence that policymakers will be able to design legislation that properly appreciates the nuance of physical trading and manufacturing. Marcegaglia specifically criticised recent energy subsidy proposals that incorporate far-reaching claw back mechanisms, making it “almost impossible” to assess financial exposure and optimal business strategies.
“Protectionism cannot be the only answer, we cannot allow European industry to be overly isolated,” Marcegaglia said.
Much of the green steel debate centered around how far Europe should erect trade barriers to protect against deindustrialisation, with overprotection viewed as potentially isolating European exporters from global supply chains. It was suggested that European industries should become better integrated at a supranational level, such as positioning renewable energy infrastructure in the member states best-suited for renewables generation, and ensuring interoperable deployment of national industrial support mechanisms.
Eurofer’s Dr Adam also warned against relying too heavily on single paths to steel sustainability, stating that Europe “should not put all its eggs into one basket.
“[Carbon Capture Systems] were preferred, until their death,” Adam said, “but why can we not use and be credited for these strategies for the mid-term?”
European steelmakers are already postponing or cancelling their decarbonisation projects on the basis of a lack of economic viability, including the immaturity of dependent markets like green hydrogen or direct-reduced ironmaking. Many of the projects promising green steel production globally are still in their infancy, meaning distributors lack insight into both the realities of future green steel products, and how these products will be accounted under different decarbonisation frameworks.
“Of course, we should be a leader in decarbonisation,” said Marcegaglia, “but to have only recently incorporated discussions on competitiveness is completely absurd. Why are we, as Europe, listing what industries we should protect? Every industry should be protected!”
Certainly, while attendees at the conference had much to disagree on, one point of unanimous agreement was that the steel industry’s decarbonisation targets – and by extension the EU’s as a whole – would not be met in time, though this perceived slowing in progress was not once used to argue an abandonment of sustainability as a whole.
“More than anything, young people believe in decarbonisation, so it is definitely coming,” said Julian Verden, Managing Director of STEMCOR. “We’re all going to need to invest in it little by little to ensure it happens for them.”
Eurofer’s Dr Adam illustrated the other side of the coin: “we must ensure with our own hands, that our grandchildren have jobs that are not just counting money – or pouring beers.”
Benjamin Steven Journalist, Steel
Tariff uncertainty prompts Worldsteel to pause short-range outlook
Uncertainty surrounding tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump has prompted the World Steel Association (worldsteel) to postpone its April 2025 Short Range Outlook (SRO), Kallanish discovers from an association press release.
“Worldsteel believes that the imposition of tariffs by the US administration could render the SRO outdated,” states the press release. “The SRO will be reviewed and reissued at an appropriate time.”
Brussels, Belgium-based worldsteel issues a biannual SRO for steel demand coinciding with its general meetings of members in April and October.
The organisation is one of the industry’s largest global associations, with members in every major steel-producing country.
Austria decreases crude steel production in February
Austria decreased crude steel production in February, according to worldsteel data.
Output amounted to 510,673 tonnes, down 11.5% down year-on-year, Kallanish notes. In January, output amounted to 599,000t, 5.9% less on-year.
In January-February, the country produced 1.1 million tonnes of steel, compared to 1.21mt in the same period last year.
Austria remained in 23rd place in the ranking of top global steel producers, the data show.
Overall EU output in February was 7.1% less on-year at 10.1mt. January-February production was at 20.4mt compared to 21.5mt in the same period last year.
Austrian steelmaker voestalpine expressed mixed feelings about US steel tariffs, as the firm operates multiple sites in the US, which it plans to expand, while actual imports from Austria into the US are limited (see Kallanish passim).
Earlier, the steelmaker successfully commissioned the profile rolling mill engineered by Friedrich KOCKS. Following the completion of all work and successful commissioning, the new equipment is now fully integrated into the hot tube rolling mill at the Kindberg site in Styria.
Voestalpine recently said it performed well in the first half of its business year through March 2025 despite the difficult economic environment in Europe. Demand remained strong from the railway infrastructure and aerospace sectors, and for high-bay warehousing systems made from advanced steel profiles.
A decline in volumes was partly offset by a better product mix with higher profits, while lower sales prices were partly compensated by reduced raw materials values.
Svetoslav Abrossimov Bulgaria
Global crude steel production grows in December but declines overall in 2025
But total production for the full year 2024 declined by 0.9% to 1,839.4 million tonnes, reflecting weaker demand and economic uncertainty across several major producing regions.

China and India lead December growth
China, the world’s largest steel producer, recorded an 11.8% year-on-year increase in December output to 76.0 million tonnes, despite a 1.7% decline in total 2024 production to 1,005.1 million tonnes, worldsteel said on Friday January 24.
The late-year boost may be attributed to increased demand due to restocking ahead of the Lunar New Year and incoming transport-affecting winter weather, as well as a greater focus on exports. There was also positive news a month earlier in November around year-on-year increases in new home sales.
But slow domestic consumption weighed on output over the whole of 2025, driven by a depressed property market and lackluster government stimulus policies.
India also saw strong growth in December, with production rising by 9.5% to 13.6 million tonnes. This contributed to a 6.3% annual increase, bringing total output for the year to 149.6 million tonnes, showcasing strong domestic demand in the south Asian country’s steel market.
Europe and the Americas: mixed performance
Germany posted a 4.1% year-on-year rise in December output to 2.7 million tonnes, with annual production increasing by 5.2% to 37.2 million tonnes. The European Union as a whole saw a 7.2% increase in December output to 9.6 million tonnes, while full-year production rose by 2.6% to 129.5 million tonnes.
But while crude steel output in the European steel sector has improved, weak demand in downstream markets continues to be a concern for market participants.
The European Steel Association (Eurofer) has called for an urgent meeting and EU summit to aid the region’s steel industry “in crisis”.
“The EU steel sector was already suffering from the ongoing energy and raw material crises, and on top of this, the EU market is once again being flooded by cheap foreign steel,” the association said in a letter addressed to the EU Commission’s president and vice president that was published on December 6, 2024.
Meanwhile, North America saw a 4.3% decline in December output to 8.8 million tonnes, contributing to a 4.2% annual drop to 105.9 million tonnes. And the United States, the dominant producer in the region, posted a 2.4% decrease in 2024 output to 79.5 million tonnes, reflecting ongoing challenges in industrial demand and construction activity.
With recent policy shifts in the US, concerns have arisen about potential new tariffs on steel imports, which could significantly impact the US steel industry.
In South America, Brazil’s production edged up by 1.8% year on year in December to 2.6 million tonnes, while full-year production grew by 5.3% to 33.7 million tonnes.
UK records largest annual decline
The United Kingdom recorded the steepest decline in crude steel production among the top 40 producers, with output falling by 29.0% year on year to 4.0 million tonnes in 2024. This sharp drop reflects ongoing challenges in the UK steel industry, including high energy costs, weak domestic demand, negative economic conditions, issues of competitiveness and structural shifts toward decarbonization.
Russia and other CIS nations continue to struggle
Russia remained one of the worst-performing top ten steel producers, with December output falling by 8.6% year on year to 5.7 million tonnes and full-year production dropping 7.0% to 70.7 million tonnes. Economic sanctions, weak domestic demand, and competition from cheaper Chinese exports weighed on the sector.
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) member nations recorded a 6.8% year-on-year decline in December to 6.8 million tonnes and a 4.2% annual decline to 84.8 million tonnes in 2024.
Ukraine, however, was an exception in the region, posting a 21.6% year-on-year increase in crude steel production to 7.6 million tonnes in 2024, reflecting efforts to revive its steel industry despite ongoing geopolitical challenges following Russia’s unprovoked invasion in 2022.
Turkey’s strong annual growth dented by December weakness
Türkiye’s crude steel output rose by 9.4% in 2024 to 36.9 million tonnes, marking one of the fastest growth rates among top producers. But December output fell by 7.6% year on year to 3.0 million tonnes.
EU records first production growth in 3 years
The EU recorded in 2024 its first annual crude steel produciton growth since 2021, but output still remained below the Covid-stricken year of 2020 as financial difficulties hit certain steelmakers.
EU crude steel produciton increased 2.6% on-year in 2024 to 129.49 million tonnes, Kallanish notes from worldsteel data.
Largest regional producer Germany saw production rebound 5.2% on-year in 2024 to 37.2mt, although this came from a multi-year low base in 2023. Output remained below pre-Covid tonnages; however, it surpassed 2020 and was the highest since 2019, with the exception of the post-Covid rebound year, 2021.
Second-largest producer Italy fared much worse, seeing crude steel output drop 5% in 2024 – from an already-low base – to 20.01mt, amid continuing production difficulties at the Taranto steelworks, one of Europe’s largest. This was the lowest production figure since 2009.
France saw 2024 output rise 7.6% to 10.76mt, but from a multi-year-low base, with 2023 seeing a blast furnace fire take capacity offline. Spanish output rose 3.3% to 11.82mt, the highest since 2019 except for 2021.
EU output last year was also boosted by the return to operation of the blast furnace at Ijmuiden, which boosted Netherlands output 36% to 6.37mt, the highest since 2019 except for 2021. Belgian output rose an estimated 21% to 7.1mt, also the highest since 2019 except for 2021. Polish output grew an estimated 10% to 7.08mt but from a multi-year-low base.
Amid production stoppages at various Liberty Steel plants, crude steel production fell in Czech Republic, Romania and Hungary. In the first of these countries, output plunged 25% to 2.55mt, as activity at its largest steelworks, Ostrava, ground to a halt and the plant was put up for sale.
In Romania, output dropped an estimated 16% to 1.36mt – Galati is Liberty’s only remaining operational plant in Central and Eastern Europe. Hungarian output fell to an estimated 240,000t, down 50% versus 2023 and versus 1.5mt in 2020.
European steelmakers’ association Eurofer has been lobbying relentlessly for tighter EU steel import restrictions and an EU steel and industrial policy amid increased costs and declining competitiveness in the bloc. The new European Commission, which started its term in December, is currently working on both issues.
Worldsteel: Global steel production rises 1% year over year in October
Global crude steel production reached 152.1 million mt in October, rising 1% year over year and 5.9% from September, according to World Steel Association data published Nov. 22.
This brought total production for the first 10 months of 2024 to 1.5 billion mt, down 1.6% year over year.
China produced 81.9 million mt in October, increasing 2.9% from a year earlier and up 6.5% from September, accounting for 53.8% of the total global crude steel output.
This brought China’s January-October volume to 850.7 million mt, down 3% year over year.
The world’s second-largest steel producer India saw production edge up 1.7% year over year to 12.5 million mt in October, which was also up 6.8% month over month, the data showed.
India’s cumulative January-October output rose 5.6% to 123 million mt, according to worldsteel.
Japan’s October production was 6.9 million mt, down 7.8% year over year but up 4.5% from September, with January-October output down 3.7% year over year at 70.2 million mt.
US output in October was 6.6 million mt, down 2% year over year and down 1.5% month over month, taking January-October production to 66.7 million mt, down 1.9% from the previous year.
Russia was estimated to have produced 5.6 million mt in October, down 15.2% year over year and steady from September, bringing its estimated January-October output to 59.4 million mt, a decline of 6.8% from the previous year.
South Korea produced 5.4 million mt of crude steel in October, down 1.8% year over year and 1.8% from September, with the 10-month volume down 5.1% from the prior year at 53.1 million mt, the data showed.
Europe Jan-Oct output up 2.1%
Crude steel production in the EU rose 5.5% year over year and 6.2% month over month to 11.3 million mt in October, the data showed.
The EU’s January-October volume was 109.3 million mt, climbing 2.1% year over year.
Germany, the largest steel producer in Europe, saw its crude steel production rise 14.7% year over year to 3.2 million mt, which was also 7% higher from September.
Germany produced 31.6 million mt crude steel in January-October, up 5% year over year, the data showed.
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Northwest European HRC at Eur560/mt ex-works Ruhr on Nov. 21, down 18% from the start of 2024.
Turkey produced 3 million mt of steel in October, up 0.7% year over year, brining the 10-month total to 30.9 million mt, rising 12.4% year over year.
Brazil’s October crude steel production also rose 16.2% year over year to 3.1 million mt, while Iran’s fell 1.9% year over year to 3 million mt.
Crude steel data covers the 71 countries that report to worldsteel, accounting for about 98% of global crude steel production.
October production of pig iron from 37 countries was 104.4 million mt, rising 0.2% year over year and 4.5% from September, the data showed, while direct-reduced iron produced from 13 countries amounted to 12.8 million mt, up 16.9% year over year and 19.9% higher than the previous month, the data showed.
worldsteel: global steel production falls 6.5% on year in Aug
Global crude steel production totaled 144.8 million metric tons in August, dropping 6.5% year on year and down 4.9% from July, according to World Steel Association data published Sept. 24.
This brought total production for the first eight months of 2024 to 1.25 billion metric tons, down 1.5% on the year.
China produced 77.9 MMt in August, down 10.4% on the year and 6% from July, making up 53.8% of total global crude steel output.
This brought China’s January-August volume to 691.4 MMt, down 3.3% year on year.
The world’s second-largest steel producer India saw production grow 2.6% year on year in August to 12.3 MMt, which was also up 1% month on month, the data showed.
India’s cumulative January-August output rose 6.5% to 98.5 MMt, according to worldsteel.
Japan’s August production was 6.9 MMt, down 3.9% on the year and 3.2% lower than July, with January-August output down 2.9% on the year at 56.7 MMt.
US output in August was 7 MMt, edging up 0.7% year on year and up 3.4% on the month, taking January-August production to 53.8 MMt, down 1.7% year on year.
Russia was estimated to have produced 5.8 MMt in August, falling 11.5% on the year and down 0.7% month on month, bringing its estimated January-August output to 48.5 MMt, down 4.9% on the year.
South Korea produced 5.5 MMt of crude steel in August, down 2.2% year on year and down 0.9% from July, with the eight-month volume down 5.5% on the year at 42.5 MMt.
Europe Jan-Aug output up 2.2%
For the European Union, crude steel production rose 2.2% on the year to 9.1 MMt in August, although this was 17% lower on the month, the data showed.
Europe’s January-August volume was 87.2 MMt, climbing 1.5% on the year.
Germany, the largest steel producer in Europe, saw its crude steel production edge 0.5% higher on the year to 2.9 MMt, although this was down 8.6% on the month.
In January-August, Germany produced 25.4 MMt of crude steel, up 4% year on year, the data showed.
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed domestic HRC prices in Northern Europe at Eur555/mt ex-works Ruhr Sept. 23, down 20% since the start of 2024.
Of the top 10 producers, Turkey saw the largest gains in August, with output rising 13.8% year on year to 3.1 MMt, according to the data, also representing a 3% increase from July. Eight-month production was up 14.8% on the year at 24.8 MMt.
Brazil produced 3 MMt in August, rising 7.3% year on year, but down 3% from July, while Iran’s monthly output was 1.4 MMt, falling 9.9% on the year and 22.7% lower than the previous month.
Brazil’s estimated production over January-August climbed 3.8% on the year to 22.4 MMt, while Iran’s output for the eight-month period rose 1.9% to 19.8 MMt.
October production of pig iron from 37 countries was 102.3 MMt, falling 6.1% year on year, the data showed, while direct reduced iron produced worldwide from 13 countries amounted to 10.5 MMt, up 3.35% year on year, the data showed.
Pig iron output over the January-August period totaled 854.6 MMt, down 3% year on year, while DRI production for the period rose 5.85% on the year to 82.7 MMt.
Crude steel data covers the 71 countries that report to worldsteel, accounting for about 98% of the world’s crude steel production.




