Steel, automotive tariffs cause manufacturing uncertainty
Uncertainty remains over the impact recent US tariffs will have on the steel and automotive sectors, Stephen Phipson, chief executive of Make UK, said during a Business and Trade Committee hearing this week.
“We’re waiting for the full effects,” Phipson noted, highlighting three main areas of concern, with possible direct and indirect impacts on demand and jobs.
“There is a case to be made that some areas, they can probably stand a 25% tariff in terms of the consumer prices, but others certainly can’t. So there would be a direct effect there,” he said.
“There is the indirect effect, particularly around the EU; a lot of our … manufacturers are in the supply chain to EU businesses, which are then exporting final products to the US. It depends on where the EU negotiations end up as to what the effects will be in terms of volumes on UK manufacturing; so, that’s a grave concern,” he added.
For some steel products, he expects buyers to pay the 25% tariff as they cannot currently be sourced domestically in the US.
“With the 25% on steel, which [are] not normal steel products. These are advanced products. These are more specialty steel, specialty components. Now, in a lot of cases, the customers can’t do without those. They’re the single source for those items. So, the consumer will actually end up paying the 25%, but the question … is, does that curtail demand in the process of doing it whilst people re-source, if those tariffs persist for any length of time?”
Stability is also a concern, Kallanish learns from the session.
“We don’t know from one day to the next, whether [US President Donald] Trump’s going to carry on, whether he’s going to suspend, whether he’s going to change; it makes planning your business and your investments extremely challenging,” Phipson said.
“It’s … very difficult to know exactly what the demand reduction will be as a result of tariffs,” he added.
He also highlighted the work manufacturers were doing to mitigate the impact.
“Other manufacturers are … putting in temporary contingency plans at the moment, hoping that in the next month or two we can get some sense, and they don’t have to do the next level, which will be, if you see a demand reduction, scaling back factory capacity.”
He told the committee the manufacturing sector will “absolutely have to” lay off staff if a tariff deal is not done with the US by summer.
“Many of [the] large companies [have] put contingencies in place … [which] gives them maybe three months of gap. So that gives you an order of time scales before there would be a reduction in capacity planned,” Phipson noted.
“For SMEs, they’re living hand to mouth. They want to know day to day whether adding 10% to their product is going to reduce the amount of volume they’re shipping to the United States. And so for them, it’s a much more direct impact; so the larger ones can put this off for a few months, but the smaller ones are going to see it now,” he concluded.
Carrie Bone UK
World crude steel output down 0.8 percent in 2024
Global crude steel production in December last year increased by 5.6 percent year on year to 144.5 million mt, according to the World Steel Association (worldsteel).
In 2024, global crude steel production went down by 0.8 year on year to 1.88 billion mt.
In December, crude steel output in Asia amounted to 106.3 million mt, up 9.0 percent, with China’s output at 76.0 million mt, up 11.8 percent, with 6.9 million mt produced by Japan, decreasing by 1.1 percent, 13.6 million mt produced by India, up by 9.5 percent, and 5.2 million mt produced by South Korea, moving down by 3.2 percent – with all comparisons on year-on-year basis.
EU-27 countries produced 9.6 million mt of crude steel in December, up by 7.2 percent year on year. In the given period, Germany’s output amounted to 2.7 million mt, up 4.1 percent year on year.
Turkey produced 3.0 million mt of crude steel in December with a 7.6 percent decrease compared to the same month in 2023. The
CIS registered a crude steel output of 6.8 million mt, decreasing by 6.8 percent on year-on-year basis, with Russia’s estimated output at 5.7 million mt, down 8.6 percent year on year.
In North America, in December, crude steel output totaled 8.8 million mt, down by 4.3 percent year on year, with the US producing 6.7 million mt, decreasing by 2.4 percent, both year on year. Crude steel output in South America in December amounted to 3.1 million mt, down by 3.8 percent compared to December 2023, with Brazil’s output totaling 2.6 million mt, rising by 1.8 percent year on year.
In the given month, Africa produced 1.9 million mt of crude steel, falling by 1.0 percent year on year. In the Middle East, crude steel output totaled 4.6 million mt, moving down by 4.5 percent.
Low demand pushes European stainless steel prices down
Fastmarkets’ monthly price assessment for stainless steel, cold-rolled sheet, 2mm, grade 304, transaction domestic, delivered North Europe was €2,550-2,600 ($2,694-2,747) per tonne on Friday, down from €2,600-2,650 on November 1.
“I’ve never seen the market so slow,” one trader told Fastmarkets. “Usually, December is slow because people don’t want to buy material right before the end of the year, but I certainly didn’t expect liquidity to be so low.”
A second market source said, “I wanted to sell [material], but I couldn’t find a buyer. I hope demand will pick up in January.”
A third source said that the chances of demand rising in January 2025 are “considerable, but nothing is guaranteed.”
“Traditionally, January is a very active month compared with December, but given the current state of the market, we might be surprised,” the third source said.
The alloy surcharge for grade-304 material also fell month on month.
Fastmarkets’ monthly assessment for stainless steel, cold-rolled sheet, 2mm, grade 304 alloy surcharge, domestic, Europe was €2,015-2,064 per tonne on December 6, down by €50-62 per tonne from €2,077-2,114 per tonne on November 1.
On October 4, the monthly assessment was €1,963-2,023 per tonne, down by €28-36 from €1,999-2,051 per tonne on September 6.
Worldsteel: Global steel production rises 1% year over year in October
Global crude steel production reached 152.1 million mt in October, rising 1% year over year and 5.9% from September, according to World Steel Association data published Nov. 22.
This brought total production for the first 10 months of 2024 to 1.5 billion mt, down 1.6% year over year.
China produced 81.9 million mt in October, increasing 2.9% from a year earlier and up 6.5% from September, accounting for 53.8% of the total global crude steel output.
This brought China’s January-October volume to 850.7 million mt, down 3% year over year.
The world’s second-largest steel producer India saw production edge up 1.7% year over year to 12.5 million mt in October, which was also up 6.8% month over month, the data showed.
India’s cumulative January-October output rose 5.6% to 123 million mt, according to worldsteel.
Japan’s October production was 6.9 million mt, down 7.8% year over year but up 4.5% from September, with January-October output down 3.7% year over year at 70.2 million mt.
US output in October was 6.6 million mt, down 2% year over year and down 1.5% month over month, taking January-October production to 66.7 million mt, down 1.9% from the previous year.
Russia was estimated to have produced 5.6 million mt in October, down 15.2% year over year and steady from September, bringing its estimated January-October output to 59.4 million mt, a decline of 6.8% from the previous year.
South Korea produced 5.4 million mt of crude steel in October, down 1.8% year over year and 1.8% from September, with the 10-month volume down 5.1% from the prior year at 53.1 million mt, the data showed.
Europe Jan-Oct output up 2.1%
Crude steel production in the EU rose 5.5% year over year and 6.2% month over month to 11.3 million mt in October, the data showed.
The EU’s January-October volume was 109.3 million mt, climbing 2.1% year over year.
Germany, the largest steel producer in Europe, saw its crude steel production rise 14.7% year over year to 3.2 million mt, which was also 7% higher from September.
Germany produced 31.6 million mt crude steel in January-October, up 5% year over year, the data showed.
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Northwest European HRC at Eur560/mt ex-works Ruhr on Nov. 21, down 18% from the start of 2024.
Turkey produced 3 million mt of steel in October, up 0.7% year over year, brining the 10-month total to 30.9 million mt, rising 12.4% year over year.
Brazil’s October crude steel production also rose 16.2% year over year to 3.1 million mt, while Iran’s fell 1.9% year over year to 3 million mt.
Crude steel data covers the 71 countries that report to worldsteel, accounting for about 98% of global crude steel production.
October production of pig iron from 37 countries was 104.4 million mt, rising 0.2% year over year and 4.5% from September, the data showed, while direct-reduced iron produced from 13 countries amounted to 12.8 million mt, up 16.9% year over year and 19.9% higher than the previous month, the data showed.
Tubemaker Wiederholt sources CO2-reduced steel from ArcelorMittal
Wiederholt, a German producer of precision steel tube, and ArcelorMittal have signed a memorandum of understanding to use CO2-reduced steel in production, Kallanish learns from the steelmaker. Both companies have been working together for several decades.
As part of the partnership, Wiederholt intends to source hot-rolled steel from ArcelorMittal with CO2 savings of up to 65% compared to traditional production methods.
The CO2 reduction will be achieved through “XCarb Green Steel certificates” and steel with the “XCarb recycled and renewably produced” label. According to ArcelorMittal, at least 75% recycled scrap is used in the production of this steel. The CO2 savings that Wiederholt can pass on to its customers are verified by environmental product declarations (EPDs), the steelmaker says.
Wiederholt’s precision steel tube is mainly used in the automotive industry, including shock absorbers, camshafts, steering parts, cardan shafts and stabilisers. It has committed to becoming carbon neutral in Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2030, in accordance with the Greenhouse Gas Protocol.
Separately, ArcelorMittal Germany has announced that its Duisburg long products mill has been certified by organisation ResponsibleSteel, following a two-year audit by inspection company GUTcert.
Christian Koehl Germany
HRC bucks EU imports decline in 2023
EU hot rolled coil imports in 2023 increased by almost 18% year-on-year, according to the latest data shared by EUROMETAL and compiled using official customs numbers.
Overall, HRC imports surpassed 18 million tonnes. Italy was the largest importer with over 3.5mt, followed by Spain with 1.3mt, and Belgium with 900,00t, Kallanish notes.
The recovery in HRC imports nevertheless bucked the overall import trend last year in Europe. According to the same data, EU imports of flat products – including non-alloy and stainless – decreased 3% y-o-y to 19mt.
Similarly, all other major steel products imports registered a decrease in 2023.
Metallic coated sheet imports fell 18% y-o-y to 3.6mt, while cold rolled coil imports were down 1.5% to 2.5mt.
On the longs side, overall imports of non-alloy and stainless products registered a decrease of 20% y-o-y to 7.5mt. Rebar imports were down 29% to 1.2mt and wire rod imports decreased 25% to 2mt.
Emanuele Norsa Italy
Austria’s June steel production rises on-year
Austria’s steelmakers decreased crude steel production in June compared to the previous month, according to worldsteel data.
Output amounted to 648,000 tonnes, down by 1.8% compared to May, but 2.7% more on-year, Kallanish notes.
In January-June, the country produced 3.78 million tonnes of steel, down 4% on-year.
In 2022, Austria reduced steel production by 4.7% on-year to 7.51mt.
Overall EU output in June fell by 11.1% on-year to 10.6mt. In January-June, EU steelmakers produced 66.3mt, down 10.9% on-year.
Austria’s largest steelmaker voestalpine expects good earnings after a strong 2022/23 fiscal year (see Kallanish passim). It recorded the highest level of revenue and best operating result in its history, surpassing even its record year of 2021/22. The Austrian group’s revenue rose by 22.1% over the previous year to €18.2 billion ($19.2 billion), and Ebitda from €2.3 billion to €2.5 billion.
The firm said in June expectations were more cautious because of the war in Ukraine, among other geopolitical tensions worldwide, and inflation in both Europe and North America turning out to be more persistent than expected. Still, the company expects Ebitda to reach €1.7-1.9 billion in the current fiscal year.
Earlier, voestalpine approved an investment of around €1.5 billion for the construction of one electric arc furnace at each of its two sites in Austria – Linz and Donawitz. These will ultimately replace two blast furnaces by 2027.
Svetoslav Abrossimov Bulgaria
