Ukraine could double steel output in 2023: association

The reduction in procurement of ferrous scrap in Ukraine will amount to 930,00 tonnes this year, down by 77.5% on-year, according to the Ukrainian association of secondary metals, UAVtormet.

Steel production in 2022 will amount to 6.5 million tonnes, down 69.5%, Kallanish notes. Domestic shipments of scrap to Ukrainian steelmakers will fall 74.4%, while exports are seen dropping 92.4%.

In 2023, according to the optimistic scenario, Ukrainian steel production could amount to 12-12.5mt, while supply of scrap to metallurgical plants could reach 1.5-1.6mt, and scrap procurement total 1.85-1.9mt. Exports of scrap next year may reach 300,000-320,000t.

However, a realistic forecast assumes that Ukrainian steelmakers will produce 7-7.5mt of steel, with domestic supplies of raw materials to plants amounting to 900,000-950,000t, exports reaching 200,000-220,000t and scrap procurement at 1.2-1.25mt.

“The projected volumes of steel production in 2023 are based on the assumption that the metallurgical plants operating as of 1 December 2022 will retain their production potential, supply chains with raw materials and energy resources,” UAVtormet says.

Scrap procurement volumes in 2023 will depend on the price situation in the Ukrainian market, fair pricing for domestic deliveries and export opportunities for companies specialising in scrap procurement and processing, it adds.

“Export opportunities will continue to stimulate the development and functioning of the Ukrainian scrap metal market,” the association observes. “Cancellation of export duties, simplification of obtaining the €1 certificate and revision of current legislation could allow to stabilise the price situation in the market, which will lead to an increase in the procurement and supply of scrap.”

At the same time, it notes an increase in the volume of ferrous scrap generated as a result of the destruction of residential, industrial and infrastructure facilities, as well as from the disposal of destroyed military equipment and other equipment.

“Such material needs to be processed using special technologies and equipment, which means it has a higher cost,” UAVtormet notes. “The total volume of such scrap generation can now be estimated at 120-150 million tonnes,” it adds.

Svetoslav Abrossimov Bulgaria