The need for EU post-safeguard measures has been amplified further by the OECD’s latest finding that excess global steel capacity will grow from 602 million tonnes in 2024 to 721mt by 2027, five times the size of EU production, warns Eurofer.
At its meeting this week, the OECD Steel Committee concluded that growing overcapacity has resulted in a surge in exports of low-priced steel that is threatening Steel Committee members’ production. Chinese steel exports have more than doubled since 2020, surging to 118mt in 2024, while the country’s steel imports plunged by almost 80% to 8.7mt. Profitability continued to decline in 2024 and a growing number of countries have taken trade action.
“Without policy adjustments in countries that are fuelling the excess capacity, or disincentives for them to export their surplus steel, global steel industry problems will intensify,” OECD Steel Committee chair Ulf Zumkley noted after the meeting. Global overcapacity growing to 721mt will put “enormous pressures on the viability of even highly competitive steelmakers”, he continued.
The reduced profitability continues to hamper the steel industry’s available capital and therefore efforts to decarbonise.
“The trends illustrated by the OECD prove that the global steel overcapacity problem not only remains unsolved but it’s constantly and significantly worsening. This unsustainable situation points to the shortcomings of the EU safeguards where the growing disconnection between imports allowed into the EU market and actual demand cannot be addressed,” Eurofer director general Axel Eggert says in a note sent to Kallanish.
As part of its Steel & Metals Action plan published last month, the European Commission said it would present by the third quarter a measure to replace the steel safeguard mechanism from 1 July 2026.
Adam Smith Poland
