ArcelorMittal: margins resilient but under pressure
Despite a decline in Ebitda in 2025, ArcelorMittal posted a sharp rise in net profit and defended the solidity of its model, driven by its strategic investments and the expected improvement in the European regulatory framework. However, an analysis of the published figures reveals cash generation constrained by high capex and rising debt, while the group is carrying out a wide-ranging review of its workforce, a third of which is in Luxembourg.
ArcelorMittal closed 2025 with sales of $61.35 billion, down 1.7% on the $62.44bn recorded in 2024 . The Group attributes this decline mainly to a 2.3% drop in average steel selling prices. In a context described as difficult, marked in particular by depressed international prices and tariff effects in North America, Ebitda came to 6.541bn, down 7.3% on the 7.05bn recorded in 2024.
The key indicator highlighted by the group is Ebitda per tonne, which reached $121 in 2025. According to the official communication, this level is “more than double” previous cycle lows. The published documents do not detail here the exact numerical reference to previous cycles; the comparison is therefore a qualitative assessment by management of the structural evolution of margins.
Net income, group share comes out at $3.15bn, compared with 1.34bn in 2024, with earnings per share of 4.13 dollars. On an adjusted basis, net profit came to $2.94bn, or 3.85 dollars per share. The increase in net profit, despite a fall in Ebitda, was mainly due to an improvement in financial and tax items. The press release states that the increase in adjusted net profit reflects in particular lower foreign exchange and other financial expenses, as well as a reduction in the tax charge, partially offset by lower Ebitda and higher interest costs.
Limited cash flow
Analysis by segment shows contrasting dynamics. In North America, annual Ebitda fell to $1.237bn, compared with 1.819bn a year earlier. The Group cites the impact of Section 232 tariffs and maintenance operations in Mexico. In Europe, on the other hand, Ebitda rose to 2.028 billion dollars, compared with 1.624bn in 2024, a trend attributed to a more favourable price-cost effect and operational improvements. In Brazil, Ebitda fell to $1.440bn from $1.803bn, against a backdrop of lower prices. The Mining segment recorded an improvement, with Ebitda of $1.105 billion compared with $1.033bn, driven by higher volumes and shipments, particularly in Liberia. Lastly, the Sustainable Solutions segment saw its Ebitda rise to $422m from $314m in 2024, benefiting from the ramp-up of renewables in India.
In terms of cash generation, ArcelorMittal says it will have generated $4.8bn in operating cash flow by 2025, including a working capital release of $0.5bn. Capital expenditure amounted to $4.3bn, including 1.1bn devoted to strategic projects. Free cash flow came to 0.4 billion dollars. The company highlighted an investable cash flow of $1.9bn over the 12 months, defined as operating cash flow less maintenance capex. This metric, which is specific to the group, differs from strict free cash flow and emphasises that available self-financing capacity after total investments remains limited in 2025.
Net debt reached $7.9bn at 31 December, compared with 5.1bn a year earlier. The Group explains this increase by growth investments and consolidation operations, in particular that of Calvert. Total liquidity was announced at $11.0bn at the end of the financial year. Moody’s and S&P have upgraded the Group’s 2025 credit rating to Baa2 and BBB respectively, with a stable outlook.
Dividend raised slightly
In terms of shareholder return policy, ArcelorMittal says it has returned $0.7bn in 2025. The board of directors will propose to the general meeting an increase in the basic annual dividend to 0.60 dollars per share, compared with $0.55 previously, with a quarterly payment. The company also claims to have reduced the number of diluted shares by 38% since September 2020.
The strategic narrative places a strong emphasis on Europe. The Group believes that the combination of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), fully implemented from 1 January 2026, and the new Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) tool should reduce imports by around 10 million tonnes and support domestic capacity utilisation. The European Parliament vote on the TRQ is expected in February 2026, for implementation by 1 July 2026 at the latest. The actual impact on margins will, however, depend on the regulatory timetable and market reactions; these future effects are at this stage a matter of expectations formulated by the company.
ArcelorMittal finally indicates that strategic projects already underway have contributed $0.7bn of Ebitda in 2025 and that investments underway could increase the potential for additional Ebitda to $1.6bn from 2026 and beyond. This estimate is based, according to the published documents, on assumptions of ramp-up and normalised market conditions.
All in all, the 2025 accounts reflect a company that is maintaining significant operating profitability in an unfavourable cyclical environment, but at the cost of a high level of investment and an increase in net debt. The improvement in net profit is due more to financial and tax factors than to an expansion of the operational core. The 2026 trajectory will largely depend on the materialisation of regulatory effects in Europe, the ramp-up of industrial projects and trends in steel and iron ore prices.
EU market seeing growing stability, limited momentum
European distributors are waiting for clearer signals of recovery but seeing deterioration pause, according to the latest market sentiment survey by industry association, EUROMETAL.
Steel distributors continue manage their inventories cautiously, but price expectations have consolidated at positive levels, suggesting that sentiment is gradually improving on the pricing side, even as demand fundamentals remain weak, Kallanish learns.
EUROMETAL’s survey is based on responses from 200 industry participants, who report that activity in January saw little development compared with the final months of 2025. Still, the responses also suggest that the near-term outlook is improving slightly, Kallanish understands. While confidence remains fragile, the January results suggest that pessimism has eased somewhat, with fewer respondents expecting a further deterioration.
Most distributors expect stock levels to remain broadly stable over the next three months, with no indication of active or aggressive restocking. Regarding prices, “the sentiment has now consolidated clearly above the neutral line,” EUROMETAL reports, as a growing share of distributors expect prices to hold firm or increase moderately in the coming months.
At the bottom line, EUROMETAL cautions that clear demand-driven recovery is not yet in sight, but also notes that positive price expectations stand out as a potentially important signal.
Sülzle acquires stainless rebar bending firm
Sülzle Stahlpartner has announced that it has acquired another regional bender and distributor, Joseph Fien GmbH in Bad Säckingen, state Baden- Württemberg in southwestern Germany.
Joseph Fien has been a steel distributor and iron bending company since 1978, serving the Swiss market in particular, in addition to nearby French regions, Kallanish notes.
In addition to classic reinforcing steel, the company is one of the leading suppliers of stainless steel reinforcement in Germany, Sülzle says. It underlines that Joseph Fien is the only German stainless steel bending company that stocks all materials approved by the building authorities, serving customers nationwide.
Stainless steel reinforcement is used wherever chloride-contaminated moisture can attack load-bearing or sensitive components. This would be the case in in tunnel and basement construction, car park renovations, floor slabs and underground car parks, as well as in special building areas such as hospitals, machine rooms and control rooms.
“With Bad Säckingen, we are entering a region with great market potential and gaining an experienced team that shares our values. At the same time, we are expanding our portfolio in the field of stainless steel reinforcement and thus opening up new market opportunities,” says Heinrich Sülzle, managing partner of Sülzle Group.
Sülzle now owns 19 companies around 1,000 employees at over 30 locations in Germany and France, mainly handling reinforcing bar.
India-US deal to lift downstream steel demand
The India-US trade deal announced on 2 February has improved sentiment across India’s industrial value chain. For steel, however, the impact remains indirect and downstream focused, Kallanish understands.
US Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminium and copper remain at 50%, while selected auto components continue to face duties of 25%, keeping Indian direct steel exports to the US constrained.
Market participants broadly view the agreement as neutral for steel trade. A steel sector expert notes that Indian steel exports to the US were already minimal last year due to tariffs, and volumes were subdued even before recent increases. In this context, any easing of tariffs would be unlikely to materially revive exports, with “no major change” expected unless Section 232 terms are explicitly addressed.
Policy clarity also remains limited. An industry veteran cautions that details so far are confined to political statements and social media posts, and prefers to await formal documentation before reassessing the deal’s implications.
The immediate relevance for steel lies in downstream manufacturing. The reduction in reciprocal US tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50% materially improves the competitiveness of several export-oriented, steel-intensive sectors. Their expansion is expected to lift domestic steel consumption rather than generate direct export flows.
Engineering and capital goods represent the strongest transmission mechanism. Machinery and equipment account for 8.1% of India’s exports to the US and are identified as immediate beneficiaries, as per equity research firm SAMCO Securities’ latest note.
Lower tariffs could reduce the landed cost of Indian-made boilers, industrial machinery and nuclear equipment, which are intensive users of hot rolled coil and specialised plate. Higher order inflows in these segments typically translate into higher steel offtake.
Auto ancillaries offer a steadier but narrower upside. Export-oriented forgers benefit from improved pricing headroom, although Section 232 duties on specific components cap volume acceleration. The implication for steel demand is incremental, supporting alloy and forging-grade consumption.
Electronics manufacturing also gains at the margin. Electrical machinery is already India’s largest export category to the US by value. Tariff relief and the removal of punitive penalties support domestic production of electronic housings and solar components, reinforcing demand for galvanised and coated flat steel.
Currency movement provides an additional layer of support. The rupee strengthened by around 1.5% versus the dollar following the announcement. Brokerage firm Elara Securities expects the currency pair to trend towards INR 88.5-89/dollar in the coming weeks as external trade risks ease.
For steelmakers, rupee appreciation lowers the landed cost of imported metallurgical coal. Given India’s structural dependence on coking coal imports, this improves margin visibility, particularly if global steel prices remain rangebound.
India’s stated intent to increase purchases of US coal and energy could further stabilise sourcing, although this is viewed as a “long-term aspiration” rather than a firm commitment, says think-tank GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava.
India-US trade deal: steel impact matrix
| Channel / Sector | Key Data Points & Beneficiaries | Market View | Steel Sector Implication |
| Direct Steel Trade | US Section 232 tariffs remain at 50%. India exported $3.0bn in articles of iron/steel in CY24 | Restricted: no direct relief for primary mills | Minimal direct export upside; focus remains domestic |
| Engineering & Machinery | Accounts for 8.1% of US exports. Includes nuclear reactors, boilers, and heavy equipment | Immediate beneficiary: tariffs cut to 18% | Bullish: high intensity demand for HRC and heavy plate |
| Auto Ancillaries | Bharat Forge cited as a key gainer. Some parts still face 25% Section 232 duties | Partial relief: competitiveness boost for non-security parts | Steady pull for high-quality alloy and forging steel |
| Electronics & Solar | Largest export category ($12.6bn in CY24). Includes electrical machinery and mechanical parts | Strategic winner: rapid volume expansion expected | Increased offtake of coated and galvanized flat steel |
| Currency (USDINR) | Expected to trend towards 88.5-89. FPI flows reversing course | INR supportive: strongest level since late 2024 | Margin expansion: Significantly lowers landed cost of imported coal/scrap |
| Energy & Upstream | India committed to $500bn in US goods, including coal and energy | Long-term aspiration: 20-year timeline for total volume | Improves long-term input cost stability for blast furnaces, but lacks policy clarity |
| Industrial Infra | Relief for textiles and chemicals | Indirect growth: spurred by factory/warehouse expansion | Drives demand for structural steel and PEB sections |
Source: GTRI, Elara, SAMCO, Kallanish
European HRC market steady as CBAM supports sentiment; demand disappoints
European hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices were broadly flat on Tuesday February 3, lagging behind mill offers amid insufficient demand. However, sentiment remained upbeat, supported by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and tightening import supply, Fastmarkets heard.
HRC prices across Northern Europe continued to trail official mill offers, though the gap has been narrowing since early January. Domestic prices have been edging upward steadily but mainly fueled by import-restricting regulations — CBAM and new safeguards measures, rather than demand pick up.
“Mills are pushing to increase [flat steel] prices due to missing imports. But there is no improvement form demand side and there is no restocking,” a steel-service center (SSC) source in Germany said.
Another SSC source claimed that they purchased more HRC than usually in the fourth quarter of 2025 in order to build higher stocks ahead of CBAM rollout, and therefore, felt no urgent need to restock.
Buyers estimated achievable prices for HRC in Northern Europe at no higher than €650 ($769) per tonne ex-works on Tuesday.
Offers for April delivery from integrated mills in Germany, Sweden and the Benelux area were reported at €670-685 per tonne ex-works. March-delivery HRC was heard to be largely sold out, with only limited availability left at some suppliers.
Buyer sources suggested there was still some limited room for price rises but doubted higher levels of €700 per tonne delivered (€685-690 per tonne ex-works) could be achieved in the near term, considering lack of support from demand side.
“End users refuse to accept higher prices. In 2-3 weeks, producers will need to push for April sales, and we will see where prices settle,” a buyer in the Benelux area said.
As a result, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €651.07 per tonne on Tuesday, up by €0.24 per tonne from €650.83 per tonne on Monday February 2.
The index was up by €1.57 per tonne week on week and by €23.57 per tonne month on month
Fastmarkets’ corresponding daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €647.00 per tonne on Tuesday, down by €4.67 per tonne from €651.67 per tonne a day earlier.
But the index was up by €9.04 per tonne week on week and by €23.88 per tonne month on month.
Italian mills were looking to achieve €690-700 per tonne delivered (€675-685 per tonne ex-works for April-delivery coil), however, no trades were reported at such levels.
Supplier sources estimated workable levels at no lower than €650-660 per tonne ex-works, while one producer set the bar at €650 per tonne ex-works minimum.
Buyers’ estimation of achievable prices were heard at €630-650 per tonne ex-works on Tuesday.
Such a huge gap was due to lack of actual trading, sources said.
“SSCs are not in the market to restock yet, trading is limited,” a buyer in Italy said.
“There is no real restocking yet, wait-and-see attitude at big buyers,” a second buyer said.
Market sources indicated that interest in new import purchases remained subdued, largely due to uncertainty surrounding the EU’s CBAM framework, the transition toward the new trade system, and a lack of clarity over how much safeguard quota remains available.
That said, participants noted a notable development in how CBAM costs are being handled for the limited number of import transactions currently taking place. For these deals, buyers and sellers were increasingly relying on actual emissions data, provided by sellers, rather than default values when estimating CBAM-related charges.
One source familiar with the matter said that definitive emissions verification is not expected until early 2027, following the completion of 2026 emissions reporting.
Buyers largely maintained a preference for DDP-based import bookings to help offset CBAM costs, with a number of European trading houses offering these terms.
But trade sources pointed out that, even in DDP offers, CBAM costs were usually “paid up to a certain threshold.”
Sources reported offers of Indian-origin HRC around €600 per tonne DDP, with CBAM-related costs factored in. Offers for Turkish material into Italy were meanwhile heard at approximately €630–640 per tonne DDP, also inclusive of CBAM costs.
HRC from Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, was offered in Italy at €620 per tonne DDP, including CBAM costs.
