Market uncertainty and sharp mill price increases continue to weigh on the European coil market. Buyers across spot, annual, and index contracts are resisting the proposed hikes and postponing purchasing decisions.
At the Blechexpo trade fair in Stuttgart this week, attended by Kallanish, producers presented higher price levels; however, no new commitments were finalised. According to market sources, steelmakers are seeking increases of around €100/tonne ($117/t) for new automotive contracts or proposing revised pricing structures with higher extras on indexed contracts.
While annual and indexed customers appear open to moderate increases, they are unwilling to meet the full extent of the requested increases. Producers meanwhile remain firm and unwilling to compromise.
Some producers are currently refraining from offering HRC prices, while others are quoting between €620-630/t base delivered for December delivery and €640-650/t for January.
The overall sentiment at Blechexpo was marked by uncertainty regarding the outlook for the European steel value chain. Participants pointed to Germany’s weak economic growth and the lack of recovery in downstream consumption as key concerns. Steel processors at the event confirmed that price increases for coil derivatives remain insignificant. Many consider producers’ ambitions to implement substantial hikes as unrealistic and unsupported by the supply/demand balance.
Coil buyers at the fair expected consumption to remain subdued through the first half of 2026. With the automotive and white goods sectors still struggling and several facilities across Europe idled or closing, steel processors see little potential for a rebound in steel demand in Q4 and next year.
One steel processor pointed out that the loss of competitiveness of downstream sectors will become palpable in the coming months. European coil prices will rise further, due to protectionist measures. However, Turkish buyers will continue to secure competitively priced coil from Asian suppliers, enabling them to produce lower-cost downstream products. This dynamic is expected to significantly challenge European steel processors and manufacturers, who risk losing global market share and export competitiveness.
Major buyers meanwhile continue sourcing material from Asia, which remains competitive against European asking prices even after including all import-related costs and duties. Lower Asian market values remain the key reference, with Chinese HRC prices being the global benchmark. When accounting for approximately €60/t in CBAM costs, other duties, and logistics, HRC prices from China may reach around €600-610/t cfr Europe, undermining the upward price momentum in the regional market, sources believe.
One steel processor noted that 2025 has been a challenging year, with the company managing to repay investments but reporting disappointing financial results. Another coil buyer said that, given current Chinese price levels, he expects European HRC prices to reach around €630/t base delivered by mid to late Q1 2026. A further market participant added that the trajectory of European prices will largely depend on the implementation schedule of the new safeguard measure.
Natalia Capra France
