Category: Latest Updates

The export-driven German machinery manufacturing and mechanical engineering industry is suffering badly from US import restrictions, its association VDMA reports in its latest annual review.

The punitive US tariffs on steel and aluminium will likely affect around 56% of German machinery exports to the US in the near future, Kallanish hears from the federation. According to a new VDMA survey of nearly 400 member companies, 47% of companies report a decline in orders from the US since last April. Two-thirds of respondents expect a drop in sales due to the tariffs.

“What’s more, it’s not just about the absolute level of the tariffs, but also about the associated bureaucratic burden, such as correctly declaring the value of steel and aluminium,” says VDMA president Bertram Kawlath. “Only around a quarter of our companies believe they can meet the American requirements. The tariffs are absolutely counterproductive for both sides!”

In September 2025, German machinery exports amounted to €16.3 billion ($19 billion), marking a 3.4% decline compared to the previous year. Adjusted for price changes, this corresponds to a real decrease of 4.7%. To the USA, exports fell by 10.8% in September. The USA accounts for more than 12% of German exports, rendering it still the largest single foreign market for German mechanical engineering, followed by China with 8% and France with 6%.

As a gentle compensation for the trade issues with the USA, exports to other EU members turned out more favourable than previously assumed. These were still down by 2.2% y-o-y in the first three quarters but have recently gained momentum. To the eurozone, especially, the decline was only 1.1%, VDMA notes.

Turkish flat steel exports to the EU are approaching effective closure for the remainder of the first quarter, with most Q1 volumes already tied up in awaiting allocation.

Pipe product quotas were meanwhile effectively used up within the first working days of the year, Kallanish notes.

By contrast, long products and stainless steel still retain some trading opportunities, according to EU customs portal data.

More than 312,000 tonnes of hot-rolled sheet and strip are currently awaiting allocation, leaving just 81,127 tonnes available, equivalent to 21% of the 393,978t quarterly quota for Türkiye’s largest flat steel category.

Cold-rolled sheet and coated flat products are even tighter, with availability limited to 7% for CR sheet, 9% for metallic-coated sheet and 6% for organic-coated sheet.

Tin mill products are already heavily oversubscribed, with bookings exceeding the quarterly quota by nearly 4,000t.

A similar situation is evident for Turkish pipes and tubes, with gas pipes, hollow sections and large welded tubes all exceeding their quarterly allocations and showing negative availability.

By contrast, long products retain greater availability, with merchant bars and light sections showing 66% quota availability, angles and sections 59%, rebar 40% and wire rod 32%.

Stainless cold-rolled sheet and strip stand out as largely untouched, with 96% of the quarterly quota still available, while railway material remains almost fully open at 99%.

Source: EU TARIC, as of 6 January. Complied by Kallanish

Author: Elina Virchenko

European producers’ stainless steel long products prices could see a boost in 2026, given import restrictions and extra fees caused by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), German distributor Damstahl believes.

The new trade regime projected to take effect from 1 July will see an increase in duty on Asian-origin imports above the quota from 25% to 50%. “This announcement has already caused European importers to turn more to domestic producers, which towards the end of 2025 reported higher order intake and longer lead times,” Damstahl writes in its latest market report.

Under pressure from Asian-origin imported material, European special bar qualities (SBQ) saw a long period of prices at a low level, with little change throughout 2025, Damstahl’s authors write. They expect European mills to push prices up in the second quarter at the latest, and note that some increase has already occurred. For imported material, the firm expects a price increase by 15-20%.

An additional factor possibly causing a shortage for certain bar products this year is that European mills need to ramp up production to meet the redirected demand. This will need a longer period, which Damstahl expects to take 6-8 months, following several years of reduced utilisation.

“The ramp up of the European mills has been assumed in this range since they have reduced their capacities throughout the last two years significantly,” the authors explain to Kallanish.

Within the first seven days of January, within the new EU quota period between January 1 and March 31 some of the import quotas for certain steel products allocated for India, China, Turkey, and certain countries under the “other countries” category have been exceeded, while over 70 percent of quotas for some steel products have been used up.

Looking at the exceeded quotas, India has exceeded the quotas of 222,829 mt for HRC (1A) and 31,416 mt for stainless bars and light sections, with 289,320 mt and 49,361 mt of the given products respectively waiting at EU ports. The country has also exceeded the quotas of 7,347 mt for tin mill products and 5,955 mt for other welded pipes, with 18,569 mt and 8,206 mt of the given products respectively waiting for customs clearance. China has exhausted its quotas of 126,937 mt for metallic coated sheets (4B), 138,863 mt for merchant bars and light sections, 34,005 mt for other seamless pipes, and 6,929 mt for sheet piling, with 192,566 mt, 192,643 mt, 36,837 mt and 7,123 mt of the given products respectively waiting at EU ports. In addition, the country has also exceeded its quota of 5,504 mt for hollow sections allocated under “other countries”.

Regarding the quotas allocated for Turkey, the country has exceeded its quotas of 83,109 mt for hollow sections, 48,938 mt for gas pipes, and 14,782 mt for large welded tubes (25B), with 111,528 mt, 54,716 mt and 19,553 mt of the given products respectively waiting for customs clearance.

The countries’ EU steel import quota usage over 70 percent can be seen in the table below.

“There is no change in the market as people are coming back,” a trader said, adding that they expect changes in the future with the rollout of new trade regulations.

The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) came into full effect on January 1. This is expected to increase the cost of imported steel products while supporting domestic production.

In Northern Europe, offers for HRC varied within the range of €630-650 ($738-761) per tonne ex-works, depending on the month of delivery and the supplier. The upper end of the range reflected offers for March delivery.

Meanwhile, estimates of workable prices were heard at €630 per tonne ex-works.

Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €631 per tonne on Wednesday, up by €1 per tonne since Tuesday January 6.

The index was up by €3.50 per tonne week on week and by €8.50 per tonne month on month.

Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €624 per tonne on Wednesday, up by €0.88 per tonne since Tuesday.

The index was up by €0.88 per tonne week on week and by €10.67 per tonne month on month.

Estimates of workable levels were heard within the range of €610-620 per tonne ex-works, while offers were reported within the range of €630-640 per tonne ex-works.

The new quota period in the EU has started as of January 1. Although the volumes awaiting at the ports are not cleared through customs yet, given the high volumes of imports waiting at the ports, for some products, the quota volumes have already been exhausted.

In the table below, you can see the products for which quotas have already been exhausted and also those for which more than 70 percent of quotas have been used up.

Johannes-Keppler-Universität Linz is launching a research series on machine learning and signal processing in steelmaking, together with voestalpine Stahl, Kallanish notes.

The project at the University’s Christian Doppler Laboratory for Signal Processing and Machine Learning in the Steel Industry (CD) institute will run until 2032. It has been endowed with €2.7 million ($3.2m) by Austria’s Federal Ministry of Economy, Energy and Tourism.

The laboratory will work on the development of theoretical principles and algorithms to improve signal processing for monitoring steel manufacturing processes for the next few years.

“Production processes – such as those at voestalpine Stahl GmbH – are monitored by sensors whose signals are processed by specialised algorithms,” says project head Oliver Lang. He explains there are various kinds of signals. “One type of signal that occurs frequently are so-called approximate periodic signals,” he identifies as one example. “There has been very little research on these signals in the past and we only have very few algorithms that are able to process them.”

The reason these occur rather often at strip mills is because of the many continuous processes involved, Kallanish understands. “The rotations and oscillations create these almost periodic signals, but they also cause a lot of critical interfering signals,” Lang concludes.