The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will reshape European steel trade in the coming year, but the market still lacks key details needed for long-term planning, Alexander Julius, president of EUROMETAL, told S&P Global Commodity Insights in an interview.
Alexander said that the future of European trade policy lies in stronger federation-wide coordination. “Our intention is to further strengthen the joint voice of federations. We need more and more of one voice toward Brussels,” Julius said.
Market seeking DDP clarity
Julius emphasized that for most of Eurometal’s members, steel trade into Europe already occurs on a DDP (delivered duty paid) basis — a trend that CBAM is expected to accelerate.
“Our business has always been DDP — not a lot of CIF/CFR at all,” he said. “The industry wants DDP solutions. But to deliver those, we need full clarity on CBAM.”
Julius noted growing concerns from exporters within the EU, especially regarding necessary potential tax claims when exporting to non-ETS countries and the complexity of tracking embedded emissions downstream.
“If CBAM is digested as a tax, but you’re exporting to a country without an ETS, will there be a way to claim it back? That’s one of the unresolved questions,” he said. “It’s becoming another cost factor that needs to be built into calculations but then the question of competitiveness remains.
No premium, but ‘grey steel’ pricing may shift
Asked whether CBAM could lead to more EAF-based imports into Europe, Julius said there would not be a “green steel premium” but rather a premium for more carbon-intensive products.
“For blast furnace products, CBAM costs will be higher. You may see a kind of ‘grey steel premium’ emerge instead. The market will adapt,” he said.
Julius pointed to companies using both BF and EAF production routes, and suggested that, as mass-balancing and emissions accounting practices evolve in view of the EC plans to avoid resource shuffling, trade dynamics will be affected.
“In the end, CBAM won’t stop trade — but it will change its shape,” he said.
Industry still waiting for benchmarks
With no final EU CBAM benchmark and default values published yet, as well as the speculative EU ETS development until the end of 2026, carbon cost calculations remain a challenge for steel buyers and distributors. Julius said Eurometal members are relying on mill-reported emissions, ETS prices, and internal know-how to anticipate likely CBAM values.
“We’ve dealt with this in detail at the company level. We expect the benchmark to be within a certain range — close to ETS levels — but more certainty is essential,” he said.
He added that some buyers want CBAM costs broken out as a line item, while others prefer a bundled, inclusive price. “It depends on the customer — but everyone wants the calculation formula to be consistent and transparent,” Julius said.
As the EU’s CBAM looms on the horizon of 2026, many have suggested that there could be a deluge of imports, as buyers attempt to avoid the mandatory carbon reporting requirements from the legislation.
Industry consolidation and EUROMETAL’s evolving role
Looking ahead, Julius said the European steel landscape was becoming increasingly regionalized, with more consolidation in downstream sectors and a shift toward local sourcing.
Reflecting on Eurometal’s 75th anniversary event, Julius said the feedback had been overwhelmingly positive, despite some suggestions to include more voices from the distribution segment.
“A few people criticized that we didn’t have enough distribution businesses represented. But our speakers — from Henrik Adam to Marcegaglia — were very well received,” he said. “The dinner and cocktail night before was very important — it helped bringing people together. Attendance was strong, and the feedback we’ve had so far has been great.
EUROMETAL’s presence is getting stronger, more companies and associations are becoming part of our federation, and we gain an increasing market picture enabling is to better represent the interest of our industry.
