Domestic spot prices for steel hot-rolled coil (HRC) in Europe remained stable in the week to 29 May due to a slow market, but EU steelmakers have increased their target prices for the second half of the year for long-term contracts.
A major steel producer has been aiming for a EUR80/t rise in long-term contracts. Market sources reported an increase in offers by EUR50-120/t for July-December agreements with end consumers, depending on the buyer, seller, and previous contract prices. The long-term prices are likely to increase, though they may not reach mills’ targeted prices. Some market participants expressed concerns that steel consumption by end users, particularly carmakers, could decrease due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and lower car sales in the region and globally.
The offer rise was not reflected in the spot market, where steelmakers kept prices stable to fill their production lines for summer, a period traditionally characterized by low market activity. Some steelmakers made attempts to offer third-quarter HRC at EUR730-750/t delivered, but they were quick to adjust the offers down to below EUR700/t ex-works in an attempt to attract buyers.
In Northwest Europe, domestic HRC prices were around EUR680/t ex-works.
In Italy, domestic prices have settled at EUR680/t delivered, equivalent to EUR665-675/t ex-works.
Activity remained muted due to a combination of high distributor stocks, declining prices for processed steel coil, and a lack of clarity regarding the new import quotas.
“The European flat steel market is in a temporary deadlock. Spot activity is quiet due to slowing automotive and industrial demand. While domestic mills are using upcoming import restrictions to aggressively push for higher prices on paper, buyers are successfully resisting by drawing down existing warehouse stocks,” a Northwest European distributor said.
The sentiment was echoed by an Italian trader: “It is impossible to buy new rolling coil with the current prices for cut material. Everyone has no choice but to consume material from stock and wait for a price recovery across the supply chain.”
This gives some hope to market sources that trading activity is likely to pick up when stocks decline.
New, tightened steel import quotas are due to take effect from 1 July and, while the general framework is clear — promising an overall quota reduction of 47% and a doubling of duties to 50% — no decision has been announced regarding allocations to country-specific quotas.
Market participants have mixed expectations regarding the impact of the import restrictions. The number of import offers has remained limited in May as exporters are uncertain about which volumes they could sell to the EU risk-free. An announcement on quota volumes is expected to support a revival in trading activity, with buyers booking what they can from overseas and sourcing the remaining volumes from domestic suppliers. Sources have different views on the scale of the impact the new quotas might have, with some suggesting that imports would return from countries able to offer competitive prices, while others believe that the regulations would force more purchases from EU mills and drive prices up.
Offers of HRC from Turkey have been reported at EUR600/t CIF Italy, but interest in the material has been low as exporters had already sold substantial volumes to the EU and the risks of exceeding the quotas were high.
Material from Asia and Algeria has been available at EUR720-750/t DDP South European ports.
Domestic coil prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, and mills will attempt to push offers up for the third quarter using the new regulations as leverage. Buyers largely agree that a price decline is unlikely, but the prospect of a rise was questioned by some sources due to the unlikely recovery of real demand this year.
Green steel
Spot demand for green steel remains muted as distributors prefer to avoid risks related to putting premium material in stock without having a particular customer in mind. End users, particularly the automotive and construction segments, remain the driving force behind low-CO2 steel consumption.
The end users, however, were reportedly showing less interest in mass-balanced material in favour of steel with lower embedded emissions.
Official offered premiums from trial plants remained close to EUR300/t, and some end users accepted them earlier as they were able to dilute the additional costs in the total cost of a product. Steelmakers, however, were more open to reviewing those premiums down to around EUR200/t to secure contracts.
Buyers estimated workable premiums at EUR80-150/t.
| Weekly European steel coil | |||||
| EUR/t | Term | 29-May-26 | Change | ||
| Weekly Northwest Europe steel coil | |||||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 680.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works CRC | EX-WORKS | 790.00 | -5.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HDG | EX-WORKS | 800.00 | -10.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe CIF HRC | CIF | 620.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe DDP port HRC | DDP Port | 695.00 | -25.00 | ||
| Show more… | |||||
| Source: McCloskey by OPIS. | © 2026 Dow Jones Energy Limited. | ||||
| Weekly green steel | |||
| EUR/t | Term | 29-May-26 | Change |
| Green Northwest Europe HRC premium (scopes 1-3 CO2 under 0.8t) | 90.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-3) | EX-WORKS | 770.00 | 0.00 |
| Green HRC premium (scopes 1-2 CO2 under 0.5t) | 90.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-2) | EX-WORKS | 770.00 | 0.00 |
| Green HRC reduced carbon price (scopes 1-3) | 69.99 | 5.67 | |
Author: Benjamin Steven and Maria Tanatar
