The standoff between buyers and sellers continued in the European steel coil market in the week to 25 September as buyers have sufficient stocks and do not need to restock significant volumes, while steelmakers remain firm on prices as fundamentals support the uptrend in the long run.
Distributors have sufficient inventories booked earlier at lower prices, and the recovery in prices for material from stock was slower compared with prices ex-mills. Real demand remained stable, and it could take until year-end for inventories to decline to levels requiring restocking, market sources estimated.
Although trading activity has remained limited, domestic coil prices have seen a slight recovery over the week. Domestic prices have been supported by a combination of higher costs and reduced import availability caused by the new quota system and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The new regulations have made imports riskier, and buyers have been showing greater interest in European material.
“The demand is not good, but buyers understand that they have no argument for a price decrease and will have to pay more for coil soon,” a service center said.
Technical issues at some European mills are expected to reduce domestic supply and support the bullish sentiment in the market. Notably, ArcelorMittal has reduced output from blast furnace (BF) 5A at its Eisenhüttenstadt plant in Germany, and Italian steelmaker Arvedi has suspended one of its hot rolling mills.
In addition, BF stoppages have started at Acciaierie d’Italia (ADI) following a Milan Court of Appeal ruling. The plant needs to close its hot area by 28 October this year. Although the steelmaker had no volumes available to spot buyers, the removal of the volumes from the market would push ADI’s contract buyers to search for alternative supply in the spot market.
Market participants unanimously believe that any cuts in availability, combined with the effects of regulations, would push domestic prices further up.
Northwest Europe
A few deals for domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) have been heard at EUR740-760/t ex-works, while mills were aiming for EUR770-800/t ex-works.
Import offers were limited due to the impact of regulations in the EU, with few offers reported at EUR725-735/t DDP Antwerp from traders.
The availability of cold-rolled coil (CRC) has declined since a major steelmaker in Germany sold out of the product for 2026, while other producers have been focused on sales of either less cost-intensive HRC or products with higher added value, such as hot-dipped galvanized coil (HDG).
As a result, domestic prices for CRC in the region were reported at EUR860-890/t ex-works, with deals settled at the lower end of the range.
Domestic prices for HDG have been heard at EUR830-870/t ex-works in Northwest Europe, with the majority of sources reporting prices at EUR840-850/t ex-works.
South Europe
Domestic prices for HRC in Italy have been reported at EUR720-740/t ex-works. The full impact of Arvedi’s rolling mill stoppage remains unclear, but prices are likely to move up faster.
Import offers increased due to rising costs of ferrous scrap and freight. HRC from Turkey was offered at around EUR620/t CIF, including anti-dumping duties, while offers from Egypt and South Korea were at EUR630/t CIF.
On a DDP basis, material from Asia and Turkey was available at EUR720-760/t.
Italian buyers have started to substitute the missing import HRC volumes with slab from Asia for rolling in the EU. Imports of semi-finished steel are not subject to quotas or anti-dumping duties in the region.
Green steel
Spot demand for green steel coil remains weak, with market activity largely limited to small trial purchases. Interest has been seen mainly from automotive and construction customers, where the higher cost of low-CO2 steel can be incorporated into overall manufacturing expenses.
Green steel premiums for trial volumes have typically been assessed at around EUR150/t, while spot premiums for electric arc furnace (EAF)-produced green HRC have been reported in the EUR80-130/t range.
Most buyers have instead been prioritising new trade restrictions and ensuring availability of conventional steel. Among distributors, demand for low-CO2 material has remained limited, with purchases generally made only when an existing end-user order allows the distributor to secure the material on a back-to-back basis.
| Weekly European steel coil | |||||
| EUR/t | Term | 25-Sep-26 | Change | ||
| Weekly Northwest Europe steel coil | |||||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 750.00 | 5.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works CRC | EX-WORKS | 860.00 | 10.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HDG | EX-WORKS | 845.00 | 5.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe CIF HRC | CIF | 620.00 | 40.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe DDP port HRC | DDP Port | 730.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Weekly South Europe steel coil | |||||
| Italy ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 730.00 | 5.00 | ||
| South Europe CIF HRC | CIF | 620.00 | 40.00 | ||
| South Europe DDP port HRC | DDP Port | 730.00 | 0.00 | ||
| South Europe CIF CRC | CIF | 680.00 | 0.00 | ||
| South Europe DDP port CRC | DDP Port | 825.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Show less… | |||||
| Source: McCloskey by OPIS. | © 2026 Dow Jones Energy Limited. | ||||
| Weekly green steel | |||
| EUR/t | Term | 25-Sep-26 | Change |
| Green Northwest Europe HRC premium (scopes 1-3 CO2 under 0.8t) | 100.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-3) | EX-WORKS | 850.00 | 5.00 |
| Green HRC premium (scopes 1-2 CO2 under 0.5t) | 100.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-2) | EX-WORKS | 850.00 | 5.00 |
| Green HRC reduced carbon price (scopes 1-3) | 65.75 | 0.24 | |
Author: Maria Tanatar
