The global economy faces significant challenges amid uncertainties over US trade policy before the Trump administration takes office Jan. 20, the International Rebar Producers & Exporters Association, or Irepas, said in its latest short-term outlook released Jan. 17.
The proposed tariffs, including a 25% duty on imports from Canada and Mexico, could disrupt supply chains, raise costs and increase global economic strains, Irepas said, adding that rising borrowing costs could further burden industries like construction, which were already struggling with low demand and inflationary pressures.
While some importing countries already subject to Section 232 tariffs, like Turkey, may benefit from a more level playing field in the US, the proposed tariffs may also increase costs for domestic construction, it said.
“These costs impact businesses, especially in capital-intensive industries like construction and could slow economic growth further, thus adversely affecting steel demand in general,” it said.
The pressure on the global long steel products market had been increasing as there was no positive news from China yet, while there was weak demand, market protection and excess capacity, Irepas said.
The EU was expected to announce a revision of its protective measures on April 1, while Turkey and India have already announced market protection measures, it noted.
India launched a safeguard investigation on imports of non-alloy and alloy steel flat products on Dec. 19, while Turkey started an antidumping investigation on cold-rolled, galvanized and pre-painted steel coil imports from China and South Korea in December after imposing antidumping duties on HRC imports from China, India, Japan and Russia in October.
“Competition in the market is very strong, while the market can be described as very poor and unstable, with a very unsatisfactory outlook,” Irepas said.
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Turkish HRC at $550/mt ex-works on Jan. 10, down 22.5% since the start of 2024.