Driven by huge capacities commissioned by Chinese companies, Indonesia is about to overtake India as the second largest stainless steel producer in the world in 2021, according to projections presented at the International Stainless Steel Forum (ISSF) annual conference held virtually last week, Kallanish notes.
Indonesia, which presently ranks fourth in global stainless steel production, will produce 4.2 million tonnes this year, up 75% year-on-year, the Indian Stainless Steel Development Association (ISSDA) said. On the other hand, ISSDA predicts that India’s output is expected to reach 3.5mt this year, an increase of 9.4% y-o-y following 2020’s 17.9% y-o-y decrease.
Indonesian surplus production may be targeted at Indian markets, ISSDA president KK Pahuja said.
“Stainless steel capacity of 5.5 MT is ready in Indonesia. On the other hand, the Chinese government has withdrawn export tax rebate in May 2021, which will restrict the export of stainless steel from China. As a result, exports from China may come down, while exports from the same Chinese companies in Indonesia will rise significantly. We estimate that import intensity from Indonesia will nearly double,”he explained.
By Kallanish Team