Speaking at EUROMETAL’s 75th anniversary conference, Julian Verden, Managing Director Europe at Stemcor, shared his insights on the evolving dynamics of global steel trade, highlighting both the challenges and opportunities facing the sector.
“We’ve entered an era in global steel trade defined by price volatility, protectionism, and geopolitical tensions,” Verden stated. “The HRC price in the U.S. currently stands at $958/ton, up about $190 since the beginning of the year — a 22% increase year-over-year. While this points to a short-term recovery, we expect prices to stabilize at elevated levels over the longer term.”
Turning to Europe, Verden noted, “The HRC price in Europe is currently €576/ton, reflecting a 9% decline compared to the same period last year. CBAM implementation, demand recovery, and restocking are expected to push prices up in the long run, but weak short-term demand continues to weigh on the market.”
On China, Verden noted: “The HRC price in China is at $445/ton — down $15 from the start of the year and 14% lower year-over-year. China’s steel exports are rising; in the first five months, they exported 48.47 million tons of steel products. While this offers short-term relief for Chinese mills, it also places downward pressure on global prices. Without a recovery in domestic demand, China’s steel sector may face structural challenges.”
Verden also addressed protectionist measures: “U.S. President Trump’s decision to raise steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% is impacting markets. The UK is currently exempt, but ongoing negotiations with Mexico and Canada add uncertainty. Europe has requested exemptions from the 50% out-of-quota tariff. Meanwhile, India and Southeast Asian countries are also introducing anti-dumping measures against Chinese steel. Protectionism is forcing a new balance in global steel trade.”
Regarding geopolitical developments, Verden stated: “The Russia-Ukraine war and Iran-Israel tensions are driving up energy and freight costs. Brent crude prices have risen by 15% recently, and the Baltic Dry Index is up 17.6%. In this environment, uncertainty has become a permanent feature of the steel sector.”
On green transition efforts, Verden remarked: “CBAM is expected to add around €56 per ton in additional cost for imported steel. Europe’s low demand and shrinking margins have slowed down green steel projects. Some DRI-EAF projects have been halted. While there is green steel supply, buyer-side demand remains sluggish. However, with increased government spending and full CBAM implementation, we anticipate a rebound in both pricing and demand for green steel.”
Verden concluded his remarks by stating: “To adapt to the new era in the steel industry, we must be flexible, creative, and open to collaboration. Only then can we ensure sustainability and price stability.”
