IREPAS Meeting: 2025 set to be record year for China’s steel exports
During his presentation at the SteelOrbis 2025 Fall Conference & 93rd IREPAS Meeting held in Munich on September 28-30, Alexander Gordienko, export director of Spain’s CELSA Group, started off by underlining that in July this year the IMF forecasts a 3.0 percent global GDP growth compared to 3.3 percent growth in 2024, indicating a loss of potential steel demand amounting to 25 million mt.
He added that emerging Asian countries are expected to see a growth of more than five percent, pointing out that 88 percent of the growth is coming from outside of China, showing that a lot of developing countries are doing well economically.
Looking at construction, Mr. Gordienko said that in the EU the construction sector is recovering this year, but only in infrastructure, with housing starts blocked by bureaucracy, while in the US as well, housing starts are down, by 19 percent since 2019, while infrastructure spending increased by 14 percent over the same period. In China, no hope of a recovery is on the horizon, with steel demand from housing decreasing by 45 percent compared to 2019.
Based on worldsteel’s August 2025 figures, the CELSA official pointed out that India is emerging as the country which has increased its steel production the most, with an increase of more than 10 percent year on year in the January-August period. India is producing as much as Japan and Russia combined, he noted. On the other hand, in the same period MENA and Southeast Asian countries also posted increases in steel production.
Gordienko also talked about Chinese steel exports as “the elephant in the room”, stating that as of July 2025 Chinese steel exports increased by 10 percent year on year, while China’s rebar and wire rod exports rose by 50 percent and its semi-finished steel exports surged by 310 percent, both year on year. He underlined that 2025 will be a record year for China’s steel exports, certainly exceeding 2015-16 levels.
Stagnant demand and mounting trade tensions
Comparing 2020 and 2025, long steel consumption decreased by nine percent and “as more and more capacity comes online, mills will have to cut costs so volumes will not be going up soon.” Gordienko said. Looking at capacity utilization rates, he indicated that, with 165 million mt of EAF capacity expected to come online, the capacity utilization rate will drop to 73.1 percent in 2027. He also explained that every percentage point decline means 18 million mt of capacity being idled, which is equal to Spain’s annual production. Compared to 2019, rebar consumption in 2025 increased by one percent, while wire rod consumption decreased by three percent and steel section consumption rose by four percent. Regarding rebar consumption, he pointed out that India will overtake the EU in 2026.
Commenting on prices, the CELSA official said that prices do not change much, noting that, in comparison with September 2024, the market remains incredibly stable and, looking at the spread between scrap and rebar, he said that it remains below $200/mt, signaling weak demand.
Turning at the end of his presentation to the challenges facing the market, Gordienko said that the same old headaches such as trade wars, weak demand, Chinese exports and CBAM remain but they are becoming larger. With more than 400 trade cases so far in 2025, the tariff situation is changing almost every week, steel exports keep flooding the market, with Chinese mills continuing to operate despite the weak demand and searching for buyers in overseas markets. In 2025, China will register a trade surplus of $1.2 trillion. Regarding CBAM, Gordienko said he expects the new tax will be around €60-90/mt and that CBAM will be finally adopted in other parts of the world as well.
AI data centers emerge as a surprising new steel consumer
Finally, touching upon a new, interesting issue, Gordienko pointed out that in the US the digital economy is emerging as a major steel consumer, with more steel set to be used to house AI than humans in the US. AI data centers will require 1.5 million mt of steel compared to 1.3 million mt required for residential buildings. Moreover, data center demand is cyclical, it does not depend on interest rates as the construction industry does. As it is built on national soil, it gives additional protection to local mills. “For every picture generated by AI means 0.2 grams of steel demand. It is less than half a paperclip, but billions of prompts turn into vessel loads of steel,” he noted.
Spain’s Celsa inks preliminary agreement with CriteriaCaixa to sell 20% stake
Spain-based long steel producer Celsa Group has announced that it has signed a preliminary agreement with Spanish investment company CriteriaCaixa to sell a 20 percent stake in the company. The transaction is expected to be finalized in the coming weeks.
This alliance will support Celsa’s ongoing financial restructuring efforts and provide a strong boost to its industrial development strategy.
The process of incorporating a Spanish investor with an industrial focus began with the launch of an operational efficiency plan, financed by a capital increase, and the divestment of certain assets located outside the country, as SteelOrbis previously reported.
Redirection of Asian steel trade worries EU
Spain’s Celsa Group has joined the European steel sector in warning that the main impact of US tariffs will not be on European exports but rather on the influx of material from countries such as China, Indonesia and North Africa. These imports are expected to be redirected to Europe following the closure of the US market, Kallanish understands.
Celsa’s president, Rafael Villaseca, calls for stronger EU protection against potential trade diversions during the visit of European Commission vice president Stépahne Séjourné to the group’s plant in Castellbisbal. Like other European executives, Villaseca expresses concerns that Chinese steel is already being imported with state subsidies and does not meet Europe’s environmental standards.
“At a time of declining domestic consumption in China, rather than reducing production, they are shifting supply to other markets that lack protectionist measures, such as Europe,” he warns.
“Deindustrialisation is already a reality, with a loss of 29 million tonnes of annual production over the past decade. Strong political action is essential to defend European interests. We must curb unfair imports, ensure competitive energy costs, strengthen protection against carbon leakage, and guarantee that scrap generated within the EU is recycled within the continent,” he emphasises.
During the meeting with Séjourné, key measures were proposed for inclusion in the Steel and Metals Action Plan (see separate story). These included reviewing and strengthening EU safeguard measures to reflect current market conditions and prevent unfair competition. Another priority discussed was the need to secure access to affordable energy to maintain industry competitiveness and ensure the effective implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), reinforcing circular economy objectives.
Celsa accounts for 0.65 percentage points of the 3.3% of Spanish steel exports to the US.
Todor Kirkov Bulgaria
Celsa sells UK, Nordic steel subsidiaries to Czech investor Sev.en
Spain-headquartered long steel producer Celsa has sold its UK and Nordic subsidiaries to Czech investment group Sev.en Global Investments, the two companies announced Nov. 21 in separate statements.
Celsa Steel UK is the largest EAF-based steel producer in the UK with production capacity of 1.2 million mt/year of crude steel at its plant in Wales. Celsa Nordic has operations in Norway, Finland, Sweden and Denmark and produces via its EAF-based plant in Mo i Rana, Norway, with output of 683,000 mt of rebar and wire rod in 2023.
Celsa said it would “devote all the funds received after the divestment to the reduction of Grupo Celsa’s indebtedness in accordance with the legally assumed commitments.”
It did not give a price for the deal, although Spanish newspapers citing industry sources said the price tag was Eur600 million ($632 million).
“Through this important divestment, which is added to the recent increase in share capital and the launch of an ambitious efficiency plan, Grupo Celsa continues with the implementation of its plan to reorganize its industrial and financial situation, focusing on its operations in Spain and on the reduction of financial leverage,” Celsa said.
Earlier this year, Celsa said it was considering selling its international operations in Norway, Poland and the UK to pay off its debts, while in October parent company Celsa Steel approved a capital increase of Eur166 million to fund a comprehensive efficiency and growth initiative.
This is the first entry into the steel industry by Sev.en, which has a track record of targeting restructuring and growth acquisition opportunities, particularly in power generation and mining of various natural resources.
“The integration of Celsa’s steel plants will enhance Sev.en Global Investments’ diverse portfolio by adding a combined production capacity of 2 million mt of steel products annually. These products, primarily used in construction applications such as bars, sections, mesh, and wires, underscore the group’s unwavering commitment to sustainable industrial practices,” Sev.en said in its statement.
Sev.en Global Investments is part of the Sev.en Group, whose beneficiary is Czech entrepreneur and investor Pavel Tyka.
Platts, part of S&P Commodity Insights, assessed Northwest Europe Rebar Ex-Works Wkly at Eur600/mt on Nov. 20, stable week on week. Since the beginning of the year prices lost Eur20/mt, but they are still well below the highest historical prices reached on March 30, 2022 when they recorded Eur1340/mt base ex-works.
Celsa rejects bids for Polish plant: sources
Polish steelmaker Celsa Huta Ostrowiec has received acquisition bids from at least two southern European long steel producers, but both were below the valuation of its Spanish parent company, multiple sources tell Kallanish.
Celsa has been looking to divest a number of its European operations, including in Poland and the UK, to raise cash to alleviate financial problems. Sources indicate the group has set a sales price target of €800 million ($890m) for its Polish electric arc furnace-based steelworks that produces around 1 million tonnes/year of rebar, beams and merchant bar.
The operation has good prospects considering Poland is expected to receive and utilise new EU funds from 2025, which will be put towards construction projects that are expected to increase steel demand.
Representatives from one other European steelmaking company are meanwhile visiting Celsa’s 1.2m t/y EAF-based UK plant in Cardiff this week, for which the group is seeking €200m, sources reveal.
Celsa could not be reached for comment.
Celsa’s is not the only Polish plant up for sale. Plate maker Huta Czestochowa, owned by Liberty, is looking for a new owner after being declared insolvent, with at least five potential suitors in the running.
Adam Smith Poland