Spot market for HRC in Europe remains quiet; trend for Q1 unclear
European steel hot-rolled coil prices were broadly steady on Tuesday December 3, with the market awaiting the outcome of long-term contract negotiations between mills and end users, sources told Fastmarkets.
In Northern Europe, official offers for January-February delivery HRC were still being reported at €600-620 ($630-651) per tonne ex-works, but no transactions have been reported at such prices so far.
Market participants said local suppliers were accepting between €560 and €580 per tonne ex-works on firm bids.
One buyer estimated the workable price even lower, at €540-550 per tonne ex-works, but this was not widely supported by others.
One re-roller in the region was hoping to achieve €590 per tonne ex-works for first-quarter-delivery HRC, Fastmarkets understands, but sales were heard at no higher than €550-560 per tonne ex-works.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, at €561.25 ($589.75) per tonne on Tuesday, up by €1.25 per tonne from €560.00 per tonne on Monday.
The index was down by €2.92 per tonne week on week, but was up by €3.75 per tonne month on month.
Slow demand and oversupply were the main obstacles to achieving higher prices, sources said.
Downstream competition between steel service centers (SSCs) and distributors has been fierce, sources said.
“High inventories and cashflow needs result in SSCs fighting for every tonne,” a trader source in Germany said.
Other market participants said that some integrated mills were selling material at lower rates through their SSCs.
“The mills are hungry for volumes, but they don’t want to lower their official offer prices due to pending negotiations with automotive [original equipment manufacturers],” a second buyer said.
In the weeks ahead, the outcome of long-term contract negotiations between automotive OEMs and steelmakers should be clearer, which will then set the tone for spot sales, sources told Fastmarkets.
“Not only the price [in long-term contracts] but also the volumes the automotive sector [takes will be] important to understanding how the spot market will evolve,” a distributor in the region said.
Buyers were hoping to achieve a discount of around €100 per tonne for first-half and full-year 2025 contracts, while mills were hoping for a more minor reduction of some €50 per tonne, or even a price rollover in some cases, sources said.
“Negotiations [with the automotive industry] are continuing, and are expected to close in about 15 days,” a mill source told Fastmarkets on December 3.
In Southern Europe, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy at €560.00 per tonne on Tuesday, unchanged day on day.
The Italian index was up by €1.50 per tonne week on week and by €2.50 per tonne month on month.
The market in Italy was also mostly quiet, however, with prices broadly flat amid subdued trading.
One integrated mill in Italy was hoping to achieve €600 per tonne delivered (€590 per tonne ex-works) for first-quarter-delivery HRC, with bids for such material coming in at €570-580 per tonne delivered (€560-570 per tonne ex-works).
“[The mill] is trying to get €600 [per tonne delivered], but there has been a weak response so far,” a buyer in Italy said.
“Nothing has been closed at €600 [per tonne delivered],” a second buyer said.
Another supplier was heard accepting around €550 per tonne ex-works for material with lead times of about 5-6 weeks.
The import market in Italy, meanwhile, has been mostly quiet recently due to trade defense measures, as well as uncompetitive prices, sources said.
Offers of HRC for February shipment from Taiwan and South Korea to Italy were heard at €580 per tonne CFR, down from €600 per tonne CFR in late November, but failed to spark interest among European buyers.
“Shipment in February means arrival in April, which makes no sense,” a third buyer source said, “[but] the domestic sector can still deliver in January.”
Sources reported the sale of some Turkish HRC to Italy at €560 per tonne CFR, but no further details were available – although one source said the deal had been done through a trader.
Japanese suppliers were not offering HRC to Europe due to a looming anti-dumping probe, but limited tonnages of HRC from Indonesia were on offer to Italy at €550-555 per tonne CFR.
Published by: Julia Bolotova
Darina Kahramanova in Sofia contributed to this report.
EU HRC prices stay largely unchanged on lack of restocking
Domestic European hot-rolled coil prices held largely unchanged Nov. 28, as market activity slowed due to low restocking requirements from consumers.
“The market is very slow and remains largely unchanged from last week as there is no significant restocking activity,” said a Germany-based mill source. “Customers are accepting small price increases.”
“Both the steel and manufacturing industries in Europe are facing increasing pressures, which require the support of the European Commission to overcome,” said the source, adding that European steel mills need more time and support from the government at a time where “the competitiveness of Europe is at stake.”
A slight improvement in automotive demand was highlighted as a key reason the spread between HRC and HDG has gradually widened again.
“Automotive demand is improving slightly,” the source said.
Weak demand and poor market sentiment since the announcement by a large European car manufacturer of potential factory closures and layoffs contributed to a narrowing in the spread between HRC and HDG prices over the past few weeks.
Platts assessed Northwest European HRC at Eur550/mt ex-works Ruhr on Nov. 28, stable on the day.
Offers were reported at Eur560-610/mt ex-works Ruhr.
“The situation in the European steel industry is critical but improving slightly every day,” said an Italy-based service center source. “Italian service centers need to maintain good relationships with European suppliers as the import market continues to weaken .. Importers are scouting out new import influxes from Indonesia and Turkey.”
Platts assessed domestic HRC in Southern Europe at Eur550/mt EXW Italy, stable on the day.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur530/mt CIF Antwerp, stable on the day.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Southern Europe at Eur525/mt CIF Italy, stable on the day.
UK HRC price increases; 2025 outlooks contingent on demand
‘We are at the bottom of the market’: service center source
UK hot-rolled coil prices rose on Nov. 28, as market participants cited ongoing negativity impacting the sector and limited buying interest.
Although spot buying interest remained minimal on the week amid stable offers, sources referred to higher tradables and shared relatively bullish outlooks for 2025, with many of them hopeful for price increases.
“It’s not all negative, prices have come up from the EU and from imports, even if demand hasn’t increased,” one seller said. “A lot of service centers have held back booking material and, on their sales side, they aren’t putting pressure on customers, so they are barely covering costs before thinking of replacement costs.”
Market participants also referred to the ongoing negativity surrounding EU mills and the potential for further cutbacks in both capacity and workforce, following announcements from steel makers ArcelorMittal and Thyssenkrupp.
“Nobody is making a profit at any level of the market, there is something fundamentally wrong, but I think we are at the bottom and if we see cutbacks then there will be conditions for EU mills to raise the price,” a distributor source said.
A service center source also suggested HRC prices had reached the floor. “Traders are struggling to get shippable quantities into the UK, and EU mills aren’t making money, so we’re seeing closures and it’s inevitable we will get more closures and cuts quite soon,” he said.
“We are at the bottom of the market, so we need more cutbacks, and it could lead to price hikes; we are already hearing of higher rates into March from some EU mills, and if imports are out of the question for Q1, EU mills will dominate the market, which could be bullish but only if demand improves,” the same source said.
Platts assessed UK HRC at GBP530/mt basis DDP West Midlands, up GBP5 on the week.
EU HRC prices fall slightly amid uncertainty over US presidential election results
Domestic European hot-rolled coil prices fell slightly Nov. 6, as the announcement of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election created uncertainty for market participants, over the prospect of higher protectionism in the US market under a Trump administration.
Market activity remained subdued as demand was unchanged.
“The market is half dead,” a Germany-based trader source said. “Announced price increases from mills are not working, as there is no demand.”
The source described price increases by European mills as “wishful thinking,” while calling the situation “a fight for the lowest price.”
The source said there was no damage to mill orderbooks because of the election’s result, as most orderbooks were full until the end of the year.
According to the same source, there was “no real strengthening of the market,” due to poor construction and automotive demand domestically.
Platts assessed Northwest European HRC at Eur555/mt ex-works Ruhr Nov. 6, stable on the day.
Offers were reported at Eur560-640/mt ex-works Ruhr.
Platts assessed domestic HRC in Southern Europe at Eur550/mt ex-works Italy, down Eur5 on the day.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur520/mt CIF Antwerp, down Eur10 on the day.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Southern Europe at Eur525/mt CIF Italy, down Eur10 on the day.
European mills push for substantially higher HRC offers for Q1 2025 despite subdued demand
Despite subdued consumption, all major European suppliers were looking to achieve higher prices for January and February, Fastmarkets heard.
“Imports are expensive and too risky to book, considering anti-dumping probes and safeguards. If mills [in Europe] adjust production volumes in November and December, they might get a chance to increase [HRC] prices,” a buyer in Germany said.
Northern European producers were offering January-delivery coil at €600-620 ($648-670) per tonne ex-works and even at €640 per tonne ex-works in some cases, sources said. But these prices have not been accepted in deals so far.
Producers continued to offer discounts only for HRC with delivery in the fourth quarter of 2024, Fastmarkets heard. Notably, transactions for December-delivery HRC were reported at €550-560 per tonne ex-works, while offers for such material were around €570-580 per tonne ex-works.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Northern Europe at €555.42 per tonne on Tuesday, up by €5.13 per tonne from €550.29 per tonne on Monday.
The index was down by €1.67 per tonne week on week, but up by €10.21 per tonne month on month.
Sources said that European suppliers were also trying to push spot prices higher ahead of negotiations of long-term contracts with end users for next year.
“Mills are trying to strengthen their position… ahead of signing long-term contracts with automakers,” a buyer source said.
Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) were asking for discounts of up to €200 per tonne, which is “unacceptable” from suppliers’ point of view.
Long-term contracts with OEMs in the automotive industry for the second half of 2024 were closed at €730-750 per tonne – and even at €700 per tonne in some cases, compared with €800 per tonne in the first half of the year.
In Southern Europe, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Italy at €548.63 per tonne on Tuesday, up by €1.63 per tonne from €547.00 per tonne on Monday.
The Italian index was up by €0.50 per tonne week on week and up by €6.96 per tonne month on month.
Suppliers in Italy were offering December-delivery HRC at €570-580 per tonne delivered, which would net back to €560-570 per tonne ex-works, Fastmarkets heard.
But for such material, buyer estimates for the tradable market level were still reported at no higher than €540-550 per tonne ex-works.
“Negotiations [for December HRC sales] are still underway; mills’ asking prices are too high,” a buyer in Italy said.
Import prices, meanwhile, remain uncompetitive and no fresh business was completed on Tuesday, sources told Fastmarkets.
In Italy, November-shipment HRC from Turkey was on offer at €580-590 per tonne CFR to Italy, including the anti-dumping duty, while Asian material was on offer at €550-570 per tonne CFR.
Last week, the European Commission started registering all HRC imports from Egypt, India, Japan and Vietnam, paving the way for the potential retroactive application of anti-dumping duties, Fastmarkets reported.
EU HRC market remains largely stable as buyers avoid bookings
Domestic prices for European hot-rolled coil remained largely stable on Sept. 20, as buying activity remained limited in the market due to low end-user demand.
“Buyers, such as service centers and distributors, are not in a great position to offload material,” an Italy-based mill source said. “Therefore, they are not in a great rush to buy. End-user demand is just not enough.”
“Pricing is not the problem,” a distributor source said. “Problem is low/no demand.”
Platts assessed Northwest European HRC stable on the day at Eur555/mt ex-works Ruhr on Sept. 20. Tradable values were reported at Eur550/mt EXW Ruhr from a buy-side source.
Platts assessed domestic HRC prices in Southern Europe also stable on the day at Eur555/mt EXW Italy, with tradable values reported at Eur540-580/mt EXW Italy.
Sources said that production overcapacity in Asia has made it difficult for European suppliers to compete with them. However, interest in imports still remained weak due to concerns around safeguard duties and anti-dumping investigations.
“Production overcapacity in Asia is making things difficult for EU suppliers,” a service center source said.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur540/mt CIF Antwerp, down Eur5 on the day.
Meanwhile, Platts assessed imported HRC in Southern Europe at Eur540/mt CIF Italy, up Eur5 on the day.
EU HRC prices remain stable as buyers await prices to bottom out
Domestic prices for European hot-rolled coil remained stable on Sept. 19, amid muted activity in the market, as buyers awaited prices to bottom out.
“The market is quiet,” a Germany-based service center source said. “European mills are struggling because prices have not bottomed out. I’m not seeing any big orders.”
Sources noted that from October onward, mills might hike prices in order to prepare for next year, however, nothing was confirmed yet. Market participants were already focusing on the first quarter of 2025.
“Mills will try to hike prices in October,” the source said. “September is bottom for prices, from October might see higher prices. Everybody is already talking about Q1 2025.”
Sources also noted that the only solution to support prices is to reduce capacities, adding that countries such as India have already reduced capacities by 20%, and that Europe should follow.
Platts assessed Northwest European HRC stable on the day at Eur555/mt ex-works Ruhr on Sept. 19. Offers were reported at a range of Eur560-570/mt ex-works Ruhr from buy-side sources.
Platts assessed domestic HRC prices in Southern Europe also stable on the day at Eur555/mt EXW Italy, with offers reported at Eur570/mt EXW Italy.
Interest in imported HRC remained weak due to rumors around additional antidumping investigations and concerns around longer lead times.
“Nobody is booking imports,” the source said. “Anti-dumping investigations are a big concern for imports.”
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe stable on the day at Eur545/mt CIF Antwerp.
Meanwhile, Platts assessed imported HRC in Southern Europe at Eur535/mt CIF Italy, down Eur5/mt on the day.
Northern Europe HRC prices hit lowest level since December 2020
The downtrend has persisted in the European HRC market since the beginning of September.
Trading remained very slow, with distributors and steel service centers having no need to restock due to continued weak end-user demand, Fastmarkets heard. Besides, sources said they were expecting prices to sink deeper and therefore preferred to hold back from bookings.
“Lead times from mills are very short; you can get [HRC] in under four weeks in some cases,” a buyer source in Germany said.
Offers in the country were reported at €570-580 ($629-640) per tonne ex-works, while in the Benelux area, one integrated mill was sticking to €600 per tonne ex-works.
Rare transactions were heard done at €560-570 per tonne ex-works in Northern Europe.
Some suppliers were undercutting that mark, but for large tonnages, Fastmarkets heard.
Notably, several sources reported transactions done at €530-540 per tonne ex-works from one integrated supplier for large volumes of HRC, but they pointed out that those were rather “special deals with special customers,” and that such low prices were not widely available in the spot market.
As a result, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €566.25 per tonne on Friday, down by €4.81 per tonne from €571.06 per tonne on Tuesday September 12.
This is the lowest mark since December 2020.
The index was down by €14.50 per tonne week on week and by €50.00 per tonne month on month.
Meanwhile, in Southern Europe, Fastmarkets calculated its corresponding daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy at €570.00 per tonne on Friday, down by €0.63 per tonne from €570.63 per tonne on the previous day.
The Italian index was down by €10.24 per tonne week on week and by €45.00 per tonne month on month.
HRC offer prices from domestic suppliers were heard around €585-590 per tonne delivered, which nets back to about €575-580 per tonne ex-works.
Lead times were about four to six weeks, sources said.
Bids for such material were reported at €550-560 per tonne ex-works, but domestic suppliers were heard to be rejecting bids on the lower end of the range.
Trading was also quiet in Italy. Expectations have been bearish due to poor end-user demand, oversupply and the price downtrend in raw materials, Fastmarkets understands.
Meanwhile, the import HRC market was also slow because of a small gap between import and domestic prices, as well as trade defense measures in the European Union.
Turkish HRC was offered to Italy at €550 per tonne CFR, including the anti-dumping duty, sources said.
Asia-origin coil was reportedly on offer at €540-550 per tonne CFR.
HRC from India was heard offered to Italy at $600-620 per tonne CFR, depending on the supplier.
Most overseas suppliers were reportedly offering shipment on end-October to early November, which means January arrival.
EU HRC: North nudges up, import offers soften
North European hot-rolled coil prices rose slightly today in continued quiet trading, as some mills sought a rollover for October rolling.
Argus‘ daily northwest EU HRC index rose by €1.75/t to €591/t ex-works, while the daily Italian index was unchanged at €595.25/t as the August holiday continued to quieten trade. The twice weekly cif Italy assessment nudged down by €7.50/t to €555/t cif.
A major European steelmaker officially offered to northern buyers at €630/t, but buy-side sources said this level was much too high because of weak demand. Service centres in Germany and the Benelux reported losing cut-to-length deals below €700/t, and as low as €670/t ex-works from some mill-tied distributors. While most offers were around €600-620/t base, they expected to buy below for a reasonable tonnage as mills looked to fill their rolling programmes.
One producer appears less hungry, despite not offering widely for October yet, as it is sending coil and slab to the UK.
Projects have been postponed because of the high interest rate environment, which means service centre inventories are not moving as quickly as anticipated — however they are not highly stocked, as everyone has been managing stock levels, especially those who are approaching their financial year-end. One processor said projects booked earlier in the year for October have been pushed back into the second quarter, given high interest rates.
A buyer quoted a rollover around €610/t said mills should have pushed for slight increases to try and stop the market falling.
With pressure on costs, as Chinese steelmakers reduce their production, some suggested there would be further downside for coil prices as mills will have more wiggle room without sacrificing margin. Traders said €560/t could be a viable price from domestic producers should costs continue to soften. Some expected the Chinese steel market to be close to bottoming, and a flurry of short covering could stabilise prices, helping sentiment in the global marketplace.
Chinese HRC was offered into Antwerp today around €600/t by at least one trader, although there are negotiations ongoing against another offer tabled as low as $510/t cfr, which is around €540/t including duties at today’s exchange rate with dumping and countervailing measures of 18.1pc.
Sustained decreases in Chinese HRC prices have filtered into lower offers for HRC, especially from some Asian sellers. The softening is exacerbated by the strengthening of the euro against the US dollar, making dollar-denominated offers work out lower in euro than last week.
A Vietnamese mill was confirmed to offer at €535-540/t cfr EU, but it was struggling to find any interest. India was reported at €560-575/t cfr south EU.
One offer from a Turkish mill stood at just under €560/t cfr Italy last week, whereas another mill was heard offering HRC at between €570-590/t cfr, duty included. Trader offers have been made at a premium to these prices, especially for some higher-quality Asian material, although one seller was heard close to the Vietnamese offer. Japanese cold-rolled coil was offered into Antwerp at €665/t fca, down around €20/t over the last week.
Feedback from buyers was limited, with many still absent from the market for holidays.
In the futures market today, October traded twice at €616/t on the CME Group’s north European contract, while two fourth quarter strips traded later in the day at €630/t.
