EU announces proposed steel safeguard changes
The European Union has announced a series of proposed adjustments to the steel safeguard measures, detailed in a notification circulated on March 10.
The investigation, initiated on Dec. 17, 2024 by the European Commission, was in response to the challenging situation facing the EU steel sector, which has been exacerbated by an increase in global overcapacity and a continued decrease in EU demand.
The proposed changes include reducing the liberalization rate from 1% to 0.1% in response to a 14% decrease in consumption since 2019, and negative outlooks for the global steel markets.
Cuts were also suggested to various key exporters, such as for India’s HRC quota by approximately 23.7%, and Turkey by 14.4%. The EC also announced the removal of up to 65% of the redistributed Russian and Belarusian volumes.
Other proposals included splitting category 1 materials, which includes hot-rolled coil, into two subcategories to further delineate between specialized materials specifying the higher-value flat steel product falling under the CN Code 7212.60.00 (falling into the newly created subcategory 1B) and those for more general applications.
A further potential change was the removal of residual quota access for a number of products, including those falling under several categories, – impacting HRC, CRC, and HDG.
In addition, new caps on the maximum volume that a single country can export under residual quotas were announced, in a bid to prevent “crowding out” – where some exporters have increased outflows in specific categories of goods, limiting opportunities for traditional exporters.
Recent HRC import dynamics have remained stunted in recent weeks, as offer levels have gradually increased but buying interest has been largely absent. Market participants have cited a low-cost spread against domestic mills, alongside fears of material missing quota windows and the ongoing uncertainty towards the result of the investigation.
Market reactions
One trader supported the new changes, commenting that “it was softer than expected.”
The industry response to the safeguard quota adjustments has been mixed. While some believe that the quota reductions coupled with production could provide short-term support for domestic prices, others argue that the cuts are too minor to make a real impact.
A German mill source pointed to the revised quotas and recent supply outages at key EU players as supportive of prices. He said, “The import quotas have decreased, so that should support domestic prices in the near term.”
“Another major factor is that Arcelor’s plants are under maintenance. So that helps the situation too, despite Salzgitter restarting its rolling mill last Friday.”
However, other sources pointed to the continuing underlying poor demand as potentially limiting any potential price recovery.
“EU’s safeguard measures will tighten imports, but weak demand may cap price increases,” a Germany-based distributor source noted. “The key focus is on real consumption trends, mill pricing, and TRQ usage. If imports slow too much, we may need to secure volumes early—but if demand remains weak, waiting could bring better deals.”
Other market participants expressed disappointment in the measures, labeling the proposals as “a soft approach.”
“It’s surprising because the reduction in quotas is not significant, and will not change much in my opinion,” a Germany-based service center source said.
“I don’t think this is enough to support domestic prices. Importers would be happy because they don’t need to pay a lot.”
Likewise, an Italian mill source said, “This is an extremely weak response, effectively leaving the door open for massive imports, starting from HRC.”
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur545/mt CIF Antwerp and in Southern Europe at Eur545/mt CIF Italy on March 11.
Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Authors: Charles Thompson, Devbrat Saha
European HRC prices inch upward on limited imports, restocking
Most European buyers currently relied mainly on domestic producers and avoided buying imported HRC due to the trade risks, related to the latest steel safeguard review of the European Commission, Fastmarkets understands.
According to Fastmarkets’ sources, this was the main factor that fueled the observed price increase. Despite some small fluctuations, HRC prices in Europe have been increasing gradually since the beginning of January.
Besides, Fastmarkets’ sources expected that there would be more clarity on the new safeguard measures by the end of the week.
This also fostered expectations among local buyers that the domestic prices of HRC would only increase in the short run, stimulating them to make some restocking, sources told Fastmarkets.
Mills in Northern Europe were heard offering HRC with delivery in the second quarter of 2025 at €640 ($669) per tonne ex-works.
One integrated steel mill continued offering such material at €660 per tonne ex-works.
“I think that by the end of the week, offers of other producers in the region will also reach the €660-per-tonne level,” an industry source told Fastmarkets.
Fastmarkets’ sources estimated the workable market level for HRC in the region at €610-620 per tonne ex-works.
As a result, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €618.75 per tonne on Monday, up by €0.62 per tonne from €618.13 per tonne on Friday February 21.
The Northern European index was up by €13.75 per tonne week on week and by €32.50 per tonne month on month.
Meanwhile, in Southern Europe, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €610.00 per tonne on Monday, up by €2.92 per tonne from €607.08 per tonne on Friday.
The index was up by €15.00 per tonne week on week and by €30.00 per tonne month on month.
Italian producers were offering April-delivery HRC at €620-640 per tonne delivered, which would net back to €610-630 per tonne ex-works.
Most Fastmarkets’ sources estimated the workable market level for HRC in Italy at €610 per tonne ex-works.
The European market for imported HRC was quiet on Monday.
Asian suppliers were heard offering May-shipment HRC to Italy and Spain at €560-580 per tonne CFR.
Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan quickly exhaust EU HRC quota
Vietnam, Japan, and Taiwan face immediate EU tariff-rate quota (TRQ) pressure as hot rolled coil orders from those origins are already oversubscribed for the first quarter by 9%, 56%, and 13%, respectively, as of 6 January.
This is against new EU allocations of 138,766 tonnes each for Q1, Kallanish notes from the EU customs portal.
Vietnam has allocated 150,920t out of a TRQ of 138,766t, exceeding its quota by 12,154t (9%).
Japan is showing significant oversubscription, overshooting the quota by 56%, with 216,131t awaiting allocation – exceeding its 138,766t TRQ by 77,365t.
Taiwan has allocated 157,444t, exceeding its 138,766t TRQ by 18,678t (13%).
Egypt, with a TRQ of 138,766t in the “other countries” category, has 86,617t of HRC submitted for allocation, leaving 52,149t or 38% of its quota remaining.
Meanwhile, Australia, Switzerland, the United States, Canada, and Libya retain 100% of their allocated quotas for Q1.
As a result, the “other countries” category shows rapid usage, with 611,112t, or 49% of the allocated Q1 quota awaiting allocation.
Countries with larger quotas exhibit minimal utilisation rates, with availability ranging between 87-99%. Collectively, 46,236t have been submitted for clearance, with South Korea accounting for the largest volume at 24,776t.
Overall, a total of 657,348t are pending allocation.
“A clear picture will be only shown by 10 January. It seems not all EU customs offices are working at the same speed for import clearing,” one trader notes.
| Origin | Quota 01.01 – 31.03.2025 | Awaiting allocation | Available TRQ | Avaliable TRQ % |
| Russia | – | – | – | – |
| Türkiye | 464,844 | 9,383 | 455,461 | 98 |
| India | 295,145 | 6,029 | 289,115 | 98 |
| South Korea | 184,310 | 24,776 | 159,534 | 87 |
| United Kingdom | 154,182 | 1,866 | 152,316 | 99 |
| Serbia | 163,621 | 4,183 | 159,438 | 97 |
| Other countries, inc | ||||
| Egypt | 138,766 | 86,617 | 52,149 | 38 |
| Vietnam | 138,766 | 150,920 | -2,154 | -9 |
| Japan | 138,766 | 216,131 | -77,365 | -56 |
| Taiwan | 138,766 | 157,444 | -18,678 | -13 |
| Australia | 138,766 | – | 138,766 | 100 |
| Switzerland | 138,766 | – | 138,766 | 100 |
| United States | 138,766 | – | 138,766 | 100 |
| Libya | 138,766 | – | 138,766 | 100 |
| Canada | 138,766 | – | 138,766 | 100 |
| Total other countries | 1,248,894 | 611,112 | 637,782 | 51 |
| Total | 2,510,995 | 657,348 | 1,853,647 | 74 |
Source: EU TARIC, as of 7 January. Calculated by Kallanish
Elina Virchenko UAE
European HRC market steady: imports limited, Service Centers face challenges
Hot rolled coil prices in Italy and wider Europe have remained largely stable on-week, following a moderate increase in transaction values observed earlier this month.
Producers in Italy have strived to increase prices to €600-610/tonne ($624.9-635.4) delivered in December; however, this price point has not yet been reflected in contracts, according to knowledgeable sources.
The market is currently experiencing a lull, characterised by a lack of transactions as the holiday period approaches, during which producers will initiate extended production stoppages.
Contract prices are currently at approximately €560-570/t delivered, with any bids falling below this threshold being declined. Numerous buyers indicate there are no accessible import alternatives other than Turkish-origin HRC, which is being quoted at €580/t cfr duty paid. Service centres that spoke to Kallanish are not considering purchases from the import market, as even the prices delivered from Turkey appear to be less competitive compared to domestic HRC.
On 1 January, EU HRC buyers will clear material imported from Asia through customs. A source believes the tonnage of HRC at ports that exceeds quotas is limited after a significant reduction in purchases from Asia in recent months, driven by EU import restrictions.
Numerous service centre buyers in Italy have ceased operations this week and are continuing to implement workforce layoffs. A number of mill customers are suspending operations for one month. Downstream demand is reported low since November.
Meanwhile, ArcelorMittal is increasing coil prices by €20/t in Europe for delivery in the new year. Lead times at the steelmaker’s plants in Europe are now extended to February and March. For some downstream products, a few allocations are left for March and bookings will spill over into the second quarter.
For the few February allocations left of HRC, new asking prices are at €630/t base delivered. Prices for hot-dipped galvanised coil are also being pushed up, to €750/t base delivered.
Natalia Capra France
European Commission bows to industry pressure, starts steel safeguards review; tougher restrictions likely
A request to initiate the review was submitted by 13 EU member states on November 29.
“The request contains evidence of a change of circumstances since the last review of the measures. In particular, the request contains information regarding the contraction in European Union demand for steel, resulting in widening gaps with the current level of duty-free quota volumes,” the notice said. “Moreover, [the surge in] China’s steel exports to major regions has pushed exports from other markets to the EU. According to the request, this calls for a reassessment of the allocation and management of the tariff-rate quotas.”
The review process will be accelerated, the Commission said, and is expected conclude by March 31, 2025, with any adjustments to the current measures expected to come into force the following month.
Industry concerns include the allocation and management of tariff-rate quotas; the crowding out of traditional trade flows; getting an updated list of developing WTO member countries excluded from the scope of the measures based on their most recent level of imports for 2024; the level of annual liberalisation of the quotas; and any other changing circumstances that could require an adjustment to the level or allocation of tariff-rate quotas.
“In any case, with all the trade measures in place we can expect increased reliance on domestically produced steel in the EU,” a distributor in the Benelux region told Fastmarkets.
Wider market
European steel safeguard measures have been in place since July 2018.
The latest review of the safeguard measures only came into force on July 1, 2024, but has already had a substantial effect on the market due to a proposed 15% cap per country over the tariff rate quota (TRQ) volume initially available in each quarter for HRC and wire rod in particular.
In addition, in August 2024 the Commission launched an anti-dumping probe into HRC imports from Egypt, India, Japan and Vietnam.
Since then, market participants have noticed that Asian suppliers have become less active and said that “importing steel has become like a gambling” now.
“These trade barriers create additional uncertainty which is not encouraging demand [for imported steel], so we can expect more demand for EU-made steel and it’s safer [to book European steel],” a trading source said.
“It’s an issue for import steel buyers in Europe that they don’t know the potential extra costs they might be facing by the time [any steel arrives],” a second trader said.
In January-September 2024, carbon steel imports to the EU amounted to 20 million tonnes. For the whole of 2023, steel imports were 24.8 million tonnes.
Sources said that imports account for up to 30% of EU steel consumption.
Global steel overcapacity, particularly in regions such as China and the US – which benefit from more favorable production conditions- was undermining the viability of the EU steel sector, producer source told Fastmarkets.
“China is massively exporting steel globally at dumped prices, which is, in turn, severely depressing prices worldwide. On top of this, these excessive exports result in trade flow diversions to the EU market,” a producer in northern Europe said.
World crude steelmaking capacity in 2023 was estimated at 2.439 billion tonnes per year, exceeding production by 552 million tpy, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
In 2023, steel output among the EU’s 27 member states fell to 126.30 million tonnes, down from 136.30 million tonnes in 2022 and down from 152.60 million tonnes in 2021, according to data from the World Steel Association.
EU starts registration of HRC imports from Egypt, India, Japan, Vietnam
This means that “if the necessary conditions are fulfilled,” anti-dumping duties could then be “levied retroactively on the registered imports in accordance with the applicable legal provisions.”
The Commission launched an anti-dumping probe against HRC imports from the four countries in August.
For the period from January to December 2023, HRC imports from the four countries were subject to different dumping duties, with Egyptian material at 30-40%, HRC from Japan at 10-20%, Indian HRC facing duties of 10% and Vietnamese material at 5-15%, according to the notice in the journal.
In 2023, the EU imported 9.22 million tonnes of HRC, according to Global Trade Tracker statistics. And, of the HRC total, Egypt supplied 753,115 tonnes, India 1.17 million tonnes, Japan 1.09 million tonnes and Vietnam contributed 1.16 million tonnes. The combined 4.19 million tonnes amounted to 45% of total HRC imports the EU in 2023.
Market impact
Market participants told Fastmarkets the latest anti-dumping move by the EU was no unexpected and said it will further limit interest in buying overseas HRC.
“There is basically only one ‘safe’ origin to import from now – Turkey,” a buyer in Italy told Fastmarkets. “But the offer prices [from the Turkish mills] right now are totally uncompetitive.”
A second buyer said the “AD probe and changes to safeguard measures will significantly limit demand” for all overseas coil.
“The effect of the [lack of imports to the EU] will start to show in the first quarter of next year [and the lack of imports] is likely to support a domestic HRC price rebound in Europe,” the second buyer added.
In the week to October 25, November-shipment HRC from Turkey was on offer to Italy at €580-590 ($627-637) per tonne CFR, including an anti-dumping duty of 4.70-7.30%, which has been in place since July 2021.
From Asia, offers were reported at €550-570 per tonne CFR to Italy.
In contrast, Italy-origin HRC, with five- or six-week lead times, was offered at a similar levels – around €570-580 per tonne delivered – which would net back to €560-570 per tonne ex-works, with possible discounts of no more than €10 per tonne, Fastmarkets understands.
Buyer ideas of the tradable level were lower, however, at closer to €540-560 per tonne delivered (€530-550 per tonne ex-works).
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy at €546.25 per tonne on October 24, down by €2.13 per tonne from €548.38 per tonne a day earlier and down by €5.63 per tonne week on week and by €6.25 per tonne month on month.
Fastmarkets calculated its corresponding daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe at €549.38 per tonne on Thursday, down by only €0.62 per tonne from €550.00 per tonne a day earlier.
Italian HRC buyers clear customs, fear high duties
The hot rolled coil market in Italy is currently facing notable stagnation, characterised by low order volumes and subdued consumption from end-users and coil service centres, industry sources tell Kallanish.
As of 1 October, the majority of HRC import buyers successfully cleared through customs the stocks they had in consignment at ports, coinciding with the renewal of EU import quotas.
It is anticipated that Italian buyers will incur an average duty of approximately 10%, or potentially slightly less, contingent upon the material’s origin. The duty rates for HRC stand at 4.2% from Egypt, 7.5% from Taiwan, 12.5% from Japan and 10.5% from Vietnam.
Contracts that were implemented in March and April at HRC pricing more than €100/tonne ($110.3) higher than current levels will be subject to duty payments. Service centres and re-roller sources indicate they will face significant financial challenges due to the duty, particularly in light of current low consumption levels and soft pricing.
A service centre doubts the recent increases implemented by ArcelorMittal will be successfully passed on downstream. “Certain customers are facing challenges in maintaining production levels throughout the week. Some have resorted to reducing their output. Additionally, the automotive industry, along with other sectors, is currently unable to absorb the existing steel production levels,” the source comments. A re-roller anticipates values may begin to rise gradually and expects customer activity to increase in October, following the sluggish purchasing observed in September.
Another service centre believes existing coil and derivative capacity is excessive. This, coupled with service centres’ high stocks, may hinder any prices hike.
Service centre quality HRC values in Italy are at approximately €530/t base ex-works but the level of €520/t has been heard in Germany. Cold rolled and hot-dipped galvanised coil are at €650-670/t base ex-works, with the low point of the range being paid for CRC.
ArcelorMittal told customers last week it is raising coil offers in Europe, with immediate effect. The steelmaker is now reported to be offering HRC at €590/t base ex-works, up some €40/t compared with offers registered last month. Other northern European producers are following suit (see Kallanish passim).
Natalia Capra France
EU introduces registration of all imports under investigation
The European Commission has decided to register all imports of products under anti-dumping or anti-subsidy investigations, including ongoing investigations. This will enable the retroactive collection of anti-dumping and countervailing duties if the legal conditions are met.
Reports suggest that the Commission may implement retroactive duties in its anti-dumping case, launched last month, against hot rolled coil imports from Egypt, India, Japan and Vietnam, Kallanish notes.
Retroactive collection is not automatic. That decision is taken only at the definitive stage of each investigation, the Commission points out.
The registration of imports is also designed to prevent sharp increases in imports of products under investigation ahead of the imposition of measures. It will simplify procedures and alleviate the burden placed on industry, while also providing the Commission with precise and accurate information about the source and quantities of imports of a product under investigation, as well as broader market developments, the Commission observes.
Until now, imports were usually registered only upon a justified request from EU industry. The latest decision is aimed at stepping up the use of trade defence instruments.
The registration will be carried out by Member-State customs authorities as directed by the European Commission via individual Implementing Regulations.
In an unprecedented move, the EU initiated the HRC AD case despite all four origins already being subject to EU safeguard quotas, with Egypt, Japan and Vietnam effectively having their quotas restricted only a month earlier. EU steel industry representatives are concerned about the survival of production in the bloc amid high import penetration and uncompetitive production costs.
Adam Smith Poland
HRC bucks EU imports decline in 2023
EU hot rolled coil imports in 2023 increased by almost 18% year-on-year, according to the latest data shared by EUROMETAL and compiled using official customs numbers.
Overall, HRC imports surpassed 18 million tonnes. Italy was the largest importer with over 3.5mt, followed by Spain with 1.3mt, and Belgium with 900,00t, Kallanish notes.
The recovery in HRC imports nevertheless bucked the overall import trend last year in Europe. According to the same data, EU imports of flat products – including non-alloy and stainless – decreased 3% y-o-y to 19mt.
Similarly, all other major steel products imports registered a decrease in 2023.
Metallic coated sheet imports fell 18% y-o-y to 3.6mt, while cold rolled coil imports were down 1.5% to 2.5mt.
On the longs side, overall imports of non-alloy and stainless products registered a decrease of 20% y-o-y to 7.5mt. Rebar imports were down 29% to 1.2mt and wire rod imports decreased 25% to 2mt.
Emanuele Norsa Italy
