German crude steel output down 10.7 percent in Jan-Sept 2025
In September this year, Germany’s crude steel output went down by 0.6 percent year on year to 2.97 million mt, according to the information provided by the German Steel Federation Wirtschaftsvereinigung Stahl (WV Stahl). In the first nine months of this year, crude steel production in Germany declined by 10.7 percent year on year to 25.38 million mt.
In the given month, Germany’s pig iron output amounted to 1.95 million mt, up by 6.7 percent, while in the January-September period it decreased by 12.5 percent to 16.07 million mt, both on year-on-year basis.
In September, the country’s hot rolled steel output grew by one percent year on year to 2.60 million mt, while dropping by 6.7 percent to 22.54 million mt in the first nine months this year, both compared to the same periods of the previous year.
Blechexpo: Stainless flats recovery slow to materialise
European stainless flat products prices are expected to continue rising, though the consolidation of recent increases is likely to take longer than anticipated.
Downstream consumption remains difficult, mirroring trends seen in the carbon flat steel sector, stainless steel mills and processors confirmed at this week’s Blechexpo trade fair in Stuttgart attended by Kallanish.
While European coil procurement is projected to increase as buyers shift towards local sourcing amid strong protectionist measures, stainless steel processors do not expect an equivalent rise in their sales volumes.
“The situation should improve during the first quarter as coil prices climb and we purchase more European material. Mills will benefit from the European Commission’s new protectionist policies. Margins may improve somewhat in the coming months, but consumption levels are expected to remain similar to those seen recently,” a German stainless steel processor commented.
European mills are raising prices, although some erratic commercial behaviour is still evident on the production side. “Nobody can afford to lose orders. We’ve had many difficult months with low or negative margins, so mills are also acting aggressively at times,” another processor said
All sources at the event agreed that a market recovery remains out of reach. More decisive price increases are expected to materialise during the first quarter. There is currently little appetite for imports, as Asian prices are not competitive with European levels.
Large buyers nevertheless continue to source from the import market. “We don’t have a choice,” one buyer explained. “We cannot accurately calculate CBAM costs, so we are buying almost blindly. Our projections may be wrong, and we’re taking risks knowing that CBAM payments will begin in 2027.”
A mill source reported that end-user demand is stable, neither falling nor improving. Stock levels remain elevated across Europe and are particularly high in slower markets such as Italy. The automotive sector continues to underperform, reflected in delayed purchasing activity, while investments in heavy industry are being delayed amid uncertainty.
According to market participants, it will take at least six months for the market to adjust to the new CBAM and safeguard regulations, with purchasing patterns expected to be restructured during this period. Certain low-cost finished steel imports remain outside protectionist measures, causing further pressure on the downstream sector, another source noted.
Buyers at Blechexpo widely agreed that flat steel prices have bottomed. European mills have announced coil price increases of approximately €30/tonne ($35) for December delivery and are evaluating further hikes of up to €50/t for January. While there are early signs of stabilisation, market participants at the event remained cautious. Confidence in mills’ ability to enforce higher prices is limited, given the ongoing uncertainty in downstream demand through Q4 and extending into Q1.
In northern Europe, mills’ stainless cold rolled coil quotes stand at around €2,240-2,250/t ($2,621-2,633/t) delivered. However, it is unclear if these have been accepted by the market. One source believes levels could reach €2,300/t by January.
Natalia Capra France
Blechexpo: EU coil players see stronger CRC, HDG
As the European coil market keeps hoping for stronger prices and that mills’ new offers will gain ground despite a weak economic environment, some say that processed coil could strengthen relatively faster than substrate.
A Dutch buyer of cold-rolled and hot-dip galvanized coil sees the price spread between CRC/HDG and hot rolled coil widening somewhat. “In normal times we assume a premium of €80/tonne [$93] for CRC over HRC, and for galv another €20 more. At the moment, it is trending more towards +€100 and +€120,” he told Kallanish on the sidelines of this week’s Blechexpo trade fair in Stuttgart.
Lower mill capacity for CRC and HDG compared with HRC means prices for downstream coil grow faster, he argues. A German buyer concurred and also pointed to the EU’s antidumping case on CRC. This will put a brake on orders from typical supplier countries for CRC, like Turkey and India, he added.
In fact, CRC could temporarily eclipse the price of galv due to the shortage of imports. He noted that the main spot market supplier of CRC in Europe is ArcelorMittal, while many other mills feed their CRC directly to carmakers.
The Dutch buyer does not necessarily agree about CRC eclipsing galv, but conceded that both could be equal in price going forward. He also highlighted the typical role of CRC in northwestern Europe, in that it is the base material for galvanizing for customers in the automotive industry, among others.
European mills’ HRC offers for new contracts start with a six, reaching up to €650/tonne ($754) delivered in the first quarter of 2026. Offers for CRC and HDG would then be clearly at above €700/t.
Christian Koehl Germany
Blechexpo: European coil buyers question increases, Asian purchases continue
Market uncertainty and sharp mill price increases continue to weigh on the European coil market. Buyers across spot, annual, and index contracts are resisting the proposed hikes and postponing purchasing decisions.
At the Blechexpo trade fair in Stuttgart this week, attended by Kallanish, producers presented higher price levels; however, no new commitments were finalised. According to market sources, steelmakers are seeking increases of around €100/tonne ($117/t) for new automotive contracts or proposing revised pricing structures with higher extras on indexed contracts.
While annual and indexed customers appear open to moderate increases, they are unwilling to meet the full extent of the requested increases. Producers meanwhile remain firm and unwilling to compromise.
Some producers are currently refraining from offering HRC prices, while others are quoting between €620-630/t base delivered for December delivery and €640-650/t for January.
The overall sentiment at Blechexpo was marked by uncertainty regarding the outlook for the European steel value chain. Participants pointed to Germany’s weak economic growth and the lack of recovery in downstream consumption as key concerns. Steel processors at the event confirmed that price increases for coil derivatives remain insignificant. Many consider producers’ ambitions to implement substantial hikes as unrealistic and unsupported by the supply/demand balance.
Coil buyers at the fair expected consumption to remain subdued through the first half of 2026. With the automotive and white goods sectors still struggling and several facilities across Europe idled or closing, steel processors see little potential for a rebound in steel demand in Q4 and next year.
One steel processor pointed out that the loss of competitiveness of downstream sectors will become palpable in the coming months. European coil prices will rise further, due to protectionist measures. However, Turkish buyers will continue to secure competitively priced coil from Asian suppliers, enabling them to produce lower-cost downstream products. This dynamic is expected to significantly challenge European steel processors and manufacturers, who risk losing global market share and export competitiveness.
Major buyers meanwhile continue sourcing material from Asia, which remains competitive against European asking prices even after including all import-related costs and duties. Lower Asian market values remain the key reference, with Chinese HRC prices being the global benchmark. When accounting for approximately €60/t in CBAM costs, other duties, and logistics, HRC prices from China may reach around €600-610/t cfr Europe, undermining the upward price momentum in the regional market, sources believe.
One steel processor noted that 2025 has been a challenging year, with the company managing to repay investments but reporting disappointing financial results. Another coil buyer said that, given current Chinese price levels, he expects European HRC prices to reach around €630/t base delivered by mid to late Q1 2026. A further market participant added that the trajectory of European prices will largely depend on the implementation schedule of the new safeguard measure.
Natalia Capra France