Year: 2026

The European Commission has published a notice of impending expiry for anti-dumping duties on imports of certain grain-oriented flat-rolled products of silicon-electrical steel (GOES) from China, Japan, South Korea, Russia and the US, Kallanish notes.

The current duties were imposed following a previous expiry review. Unless an expiry review is requested and initiated, the measures are set to lapse on 18 January 2027.

EU producers may submit a request for review no later than three months before the expiry date, meaning by 18 October 2026, supported by evidence that ending the measures would likely lead to continued or renewed dumping and injury.

“Green” steel start-up Stegra and electrolyser manufacturer Sunfire believe the EU’s Industrial Accelerator Act needs to go back to the drawing board to boost steel decarbonisation, Kallanish reports.

Debating the act during a webinar hosted this week by trade body Hydrogen Europe, Stegra public affairs director Ola Hansén said the definition of low carbon needs to be reviewed as it is currently not fit for purpose.

“I am sad to say, when it comes to flat steel, hot-rolled coil production [classification and labelling], it was a complete catastrophe,” Hansén claimed. “With the thresholds proposed, all current European flats production will be considered low carbon. All current flat steel production in China would also be eligible for the classification of low carbon … and the US too, meaning that it is not helping the transition.”

“If 100% of current production already meets low-carbon [definition], why put a 25% quota in the public procurement? I mean, there is no sense if our production already meets that,” he said, calling for more ambitious targets.

His counterpart at Sunfire, Christopher Frey, added that industry needs a “transparent and meaningful” labelling scheme for net-zero steel to create demand for green hydrogen and electrolysers, as proposed under the lead market concept. “What we have heard between the lines is a bit concerning. I would agree that we have to go back to the drawing board and make this more meaningful,” he said.

Frey also highlighted the “special relationship” between the steel and electrolyser industries. “We are customers of the steel companies, but obviously we also want the steel industry to drive the demand for green hydrogen and for our products … We source quite a lot of steel for our electrolysers and exclusively from Europe,” he noted.

Sunfire and peers estimate the steel industry could potentially provide around 9 gigawatts of electrolysis demand if the right framework is in place. Yet, Frey acknowledges the steel industry is facing strong competition, which is challenging decarbonisation efforts.

Stegra sees the proposed low-carbon steel credits “as the most promising lead market … more than any Industrial Accelerator Act.” Hansén explained that having quotas for low-carbon steel usage in the automotive sector, for example, will provide investor certainty and help unlock progress in different industries. “In the end, the additional cost of a couple of hundred euros, if you use only low-carbon steel, compared to the price of a car, is very limited,” he said, referring to a shared development approach.

Italian rebar transaction prices are holding stable week-on-week despite producers continuing to push hard for further increases, Kallanish learns. The market appears to have reached a standstill, with buyers refusing to pay the new asking price of €440/tonne ($517.55/t) base ex-works.

Multiple buyers say they are unable to pass increases on downstream. One construction company has decided to postpone future building projects due to sharply rising raw material costs, including for steel and cement. The company says it cannot absorb an average cost increase of around 40% and is scaling back activity in an effort to preserve a slim margin.

The rapid succession of price increases in Italy following the US-Iran conflict has left Italian rebar among the most expensive in Europe.

Large buyers have stepped back from the market, relying on their stocks. Smaller buyers continued to purchase until last week at €410-420/t base ex-works, limiting their purchases to a few truckloads at a time to cover immediate needs only. Including size extras of €260-270/t, effective transaction prices for Italian rebar are currently assessed at €670-680/t ex-works, up from an average of around €540/t at the start of March, sources suggest.

Mills are maintaining an uncompromising attitude, preferring to lose orders rather than decrease prices, even as sales volumes remain tight. Sources note that if sales continue at current low levels, producers will eventually be forced to reduce output.

Many buyers are questioning how long mills can maintain such rigidity. “There is a will to buy and work, but the market is now stuck and we don’t even know if we will manage to pass on the €410/t downstream,” one source comments.

Italian long products service centres and distributors report a quiet April following an improved March. Multiple companies tell Kallanish that downstream consumption remains limited amid deep concern over rapidly rising prices, cost inflation and cutomers’ financial difficulties.

Two purchasing groups report widespread payment delays with buyers unable to absorb current increases. Mill forecasts of demand improvement in the second quarter are not supported by any positive consumption signal or economic indicator. The Italian economy, which outperformed France and Germany last year, is now slowing, with depressed industrial production growth for several months.

“Customers buy day to day and only in small volumes. I tend to buy second-choice material, which can be of very high quality, and we have some work but not enough to be able to pay the €100/tonne ($117.62/t) plus increases producers are asking. Steelmakers have now become a powerful lobby and are so protected they will be the only ones able to make a profit this year with a disastrous effect downstream that will sooner or later backfire,” one service centre source comments.

Distributor prices are struggling to move higher despite what one purchasing group describes as “producers’ determination to keep the market tense”. The source notes this is not solely an Italian issue. Some of the lowest coil derivative prices in Europe have been recorded in Germany.

Since the close of the Tube and Wire trade show, German buyers have resumed some restocking activity, though not at increased prices. German values have also been impacted by high import volumes in the first quarter, particularly of tube from Turkey. However, the combination of the melt and pour regulation and new safeguard is expected to limit imports, which should push German tube prices higher.

Despite this support, Italian tube consumption remains in line with 2025 levels, the purchasing group source says. A member of the second purchasing group laments a complete lack of visibility in tube sales and difficulty passing increases on downstream.

One longs agent says he is confused by the succession of increases, noting no visibility and order sizes of between 30 and 90 tonnes, making it difficult to advise customers.

Several sources believe the current disconnect between the steelmaking and end-use manufacturing sectors will bring the market to a standstill within months, with the consequences only felt upstream after some lag.

One source adds a wider policy critique: “The key was not adopting Trump-style protectionism, as Europe is doing, to only protect one segment of the industry, producers, but stimulating demand. This strategy, however, is not in line with current and future European policies.”

At the 18th European Economic Congress 2026 in Katowice, Piotr Sikorski, EUROMETAL Board Member and President of the Polska Unia Dystrybutorów i Przetwórców Stali (PUDS), delivered a compelling intervention during the session dedicated to the iron and steel industry. His message was clear and urgent: Europe must rethink its approach to the steel market and move decisively to protect the entire value chain, not just isolated segments.

Framing the steel market as a “connected vessels system,” Sikorski emphasised that all actors—steel producers, distributors, processors and end-users—are deeply interdependent. Pressures affecting one part of the system inevitably ripple across the whole. In this context, he pointed to the growing structural imbalance between global steelmaking capacity and actual production, recalling that excess capacity reached around 650 million tonnes in 2025, with further expansion expected in Asia and the Middle East. At the same time, Europe’s share in global steel and metal production continues to decline, reflecting a steady erosion of competitiveness.

According to Sikorski, this loss of competitiveness is driven by a combination of high energy costs, regulatory uncertainty and an increasingly complex legislative environment. European producers and downstream industries face costs that are significantly higher than those of their global competitors, while the policy framework continues to evolve without providing sufficient predictability. Beyond supply-side challenges, he warned that regulation is now also weighing on demand, further weakening the industrial ecosystem.

While apparent steel consumption has shown some resilience in recent years, the underlying reality is far more concerning. Key industrial sectors such as automotive, machinery and household appliances are experiencing negative dynamics, signalling a deeper structural shift. Sikorski underlined that this is not simply a cyclical downturn but the result of a profound transformation of the market, driven by the rapid increase in imports of steel-containing products. Over the past fifteen years, imports of items such as steel cables, chassis and components for air conditioning systems have surged dramatically, particularly in Poland but also across the European Union. This trend highlights how international competitors are increasingly targeting downstream segments, effectively bypassing traditional trade defence measures focused on primary steel products.

This development lies at the heart of Sikorski’s call to action. Existing instruments, including anti-dumping measures, safeguards and CBAM, are largely designed to protect upstream production. However, when exporters shift towards semi-finished or finished goods with high steel content, these tools lose their effectiveness. The result is growing pressure on European manufacturers, distributors and processors, who find themselves competing with imported products that fall outside the scope of current protections.

For EUROMETAL and PUDS, the conclusion is straightforward. Europe must adopt a comprehensive, value chain approach to steel policy. Protection mechanisms need to be extended to downstream products, ensuring that all parts of the ecosystem operate on a level playing field. The objective is not only to safeguard steel production, but also to preserve the industrial base that depends on it. Without such an approach, the risk is clear: protecting one segment of the market while allowing others to weaken ultimately undermines the entire system.

Sikorski acknowledged that a number of policy tools are already on the table at European level, including CBAM, the Net-Zero Industry Act and emerging discussions on local content requirements. However, these initiatives remain fragmented and do not yet fully address the challenges facing downstream sectors. What is needed now is greater coherence, better implementation and a clear recognition that demand-side measures are as important as supply-side support.

In his closing remarks, Sikorski delivered a powerful reminder of what is at stake. Europe may succeed in producing the greenest steel in the world, but without a strong and competitive customer base, that steel will have no market. Distributors, processors and manufacturing industries must therefore be placed at the centre of the transition. Protecting the steel value chain in its entirety is not only an industrial necessity; it is a strategic imperative for Europe’s economic resilience and autonomy.

Author: Riley Waters | Charles Thompson

spglobal.com

 

Local rebar and wire rod prices continued to climb across Europe in the week to Wednesday April 22, driven by cost inflation. At the same time, customers in most countries pushed back and limited purchases amid weak underlying demand and expectations of price declines in the near term.

Last week, mills in Italy announced price increases to €710-720 ($830-842) per tonne ex-works (EXW) in the north and up to €750 per tonne EXW in the south. While the market last week clearly signaled that these levels were not accepted by customers, the increases were gradually digested this week.

Market sources reported that in northern Italy, some bookings were concluded at €700-705 per tonne EXW, while deals in the south were heard at €720-725 per tonne EXW.

“It is true that mills are trying to push prices higher compared with last week, but the market still appears weak and participants are waiting to see how the situation develops over the coming days,” one buyer source said.

“At the moment, however, the general sentiment is cautious, as market participants are trying to understand whether the peak has already been reached or if the upward trend might continue in the coming weeks. In my view, customer inventories seem to be gradually decreasing, which could lead to a certain level of acceptance of the new price range going forward,” the buyer source added.

“Demand is not so good these days. Customers are concerned that €710 per tonne EXW represents a ceiling. Market views are divided: some expect prices to turn lower in May, while others believe that the uptrend could continue throughout the spring until the Persian Gulf war [the US-Iran conflict] ends and the situation stabilizes,” a trading source said.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, exw Italy, moved accordingly to €700-725 per tonne on April 22, up from €670-710 per tonne on April 15.

In Spain, mills raised asking prices to €740-750 per tonne delivered (base size 16 mm), with the new levels gradually being accepted. Sales, however, were also heard at €720-730 per tonne delivered.

As a result, Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, delivered Spain, widened to €720-750 per tonne on April 22 from €725-745 per tonne on April 15.

Mesh-quality wire rod prices in Southern Europe also rose significantly.

In Italy, deals were heard within the range of €700-715 per tonne delivered during the assessment week, while in Spain, prices were reported within a wider range of €700-730 per tonne delivered.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel wire rod (mesh quality) domestic, delivered Southern Europe, rose to €700-730 per tonne on April 22 from €670-710 per tonne on April 15.

Price dynamics in northern Europe broadly mirrored the upbeat trend seen in southern markets.

In Germany, rebar was available in the range of €700-720 per tonne delivered, with sales heard toward the lower end of the range.

One source said that cut-and-bend mills in the country were pushing for prices significantly below €700 per tonne delivered, but this was not confirmed by other market participants, who said that such levels would not be workable given current scrap and electricity costs.

Additionally, a number of market sources noted that construction activity in the country was recovering after a strong winter, lending some support to demand.

In France, customers were said to be accepting €700 per tonne delivered, a level that was considered unworkable last week, sources noted.

Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, delivered Northern Europe, was €700-710 per tonne on April 22, up from €665-680 per tonne on April 15.

Wire rod prices in Northern Europe moved to €700 per tonne delivered, a development reflected in the corresponding weekly price assessment. Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel wire rod (mesh quality), domestic, delivered Northern Europe, was €700 per tonne on April 22, up from €670-680 per tonne on April 15.

German steel sales rose 10.4% year over year and 9.3% month over month to 943,927 metric tons in March, with stocks that slightly went up 0.7% year over year but fell 1.3% month over month to 1,899,091 mt, data from the Federal Association of the German Steel Trade, or BDS, showed April 23.

Sales of steel longs products registered the steepest increase in March, helped by the seasonality of the construction sector and better demand. In March, sales of longs grew 19.2% month over month and 23.9% year over year to 310,853 mt, data showed.

Sales of flats products went up by 6.8% month over month and 2.7% year over year to 547,553 mt, according to the data.

Sales of the other steel products rose 4.9% month over month and 7.1% year over year to 85,521 mt, data showed.

For the first time since the beginning of the year, steel stocks of flat products fell 2.5% month over month in March but were still up 2% at 1,213,167 mt.

Stocks of longs steel products also went down for the first time in 2026 by 1.7% year over year in March, but rose 0.8% month over month.

Stocks of other products fell 0.5% year over year and rose 5.2% month over month to 37,508 mt in March.

According to Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, HRC Ruhr ex-works moved from Eur670/mt seen on March 2 to Eur710/mt recorded at the end of the month on March 31 and then continued to stay at that level until April 21, when prices registered a little correction.

Platts assessed Northern Europe HRC at Eur705/mt ex-works Ruhr on April 22, down Eur5/mt day over day and Southern Europe HRC at Eur695/mt ex-works Italy, up Eur5/mt during the same period.

Overall, European hot-rolled coil prices were largely stable in the last few weeks of April, as market participants noted that further direction on the EU’s new safeguard measures would be needed before making any sizeable trading decisions.

In Germany, some service centers with leftover stock were reported to be offering material at a lower basis than mills, which were holding offers firm, according to market sources.

Service center offers were heard at Eur705/mt ex-works Ruhr, while mill offers were heard between Eur720-750/mt ex-works Ruhr.

Workable levels for normal tonnages were heard at Eur700-715/mt ex-works Ruhr, while sources noted that Eur680-695/mt would be achievable for larger tonnages.

Author: Annalisa Villa

spglobal.com

Global crude steel production declined 4.2% year on year in March, driven by a sharp contraction in China and a decrease in Middle East, Russia and other Commonwealth of Independent States and Ukraine, while India, the US and other producers like Turkey reported higher output, according to data released April 23 by the World Steel Association.

The 69 countries reporting to the industry body produced 159.9 million metric tons of crude steel in March, down from 166.9 million mt in the same month last year. The decline underscores persistent weakness in China’s construction and manufacturing sectors, while geopolitical tensions appear to have severely disrupted steel production across the Middle East.

The steepest regional decline came from the Middle East, where production fell 33.5% to just 3.5 million mt in March due to the ongoing conflicts.

China, the world’s largest steel producer, accounted for more than half of global output in March, down 6.3% year on year to 87 million mt. The decrease shows how Chinese steelmakers are cutting production as they grapple with weak domestic demand and government pressure to reduce overcapacity.

Among the world’s top 10 steel-producing countries, India stood out with a 9.4% jump to 15.3 million mt in March, as the world’s second-largest steel producer is benefiting from its strong domestic demand.

Production in the US grew 5.2% to reach 7.2 million mt, maintaining its position as the third-largest producer. The increase reflects steady demand from the automotive sector and infrastructure projects. In contrast, Japan, the world’s fourth-largest producer, saw output fall 4.1% to 6.9 million mt, reflecting weak domestic demand and intensifying competition from lower-cost Asian rivals.

Russia’s estimated production dropped 11.4% to 5.4 million mt, matching South Korea’s output level. The sharp Russian decline likely stems from Western sanctions as well as the economic impact of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. South Korea, by contrast, posted modest growth of 1.5% to 5.4 million mt, supported by export demand.

Turkey achieved a strong growth of 6.4% to reach 3.3 million mt, tied with Germany for seventh place among global producers. Turkey’s performance reflects robust construction activity and its strategic position as a steel supplier to Europe and the Middle East.

Germany’s output increased by 7.5% to 3.3 million mt, suggesting some recovery in European industrial activity despite the broader EU-27 decline. The German rebound may indicate improving competitiveness as energy costs stabilize and manufacturing demand picks up.

Brazil’s production slipped 2.5% to 2.8 million mt, reflecting softer domestic demand. Vietnam, estimated to have produced 2.2 million mt, bucked regional trends with a 5.7% growth, highlighting the country’s expanding industrial base and rising steel consumption.

During the first quarter, the 69 reporting countries produced 459.2 million mt, down 2.3% from the same year-ago period. China’s output during the quarter reached 247.6 million mt, down 4.6%, while India produced 44.7 million mt, up 10.8%.

The year-to-date figures suggest the global steel industry continues to navigate a challenging environment marked by uneven regional demand, geopolitical disruptions and ongoing structural adjustments in China’s steel sector.

Author: Annalisa Villa

spglobal.com

Despite rising volumes of lower carbon metal over the past few years, premiums for lower carbon emission-intensive material remain constrained by uneven adoption and continue to be shaped by conventional market forces, sources told Fastmarkets. Payment of a premium remains selective and has tended to occur mainly where regulation, reputational considerations or customer mandates make it difficult to avoid.

Low carbon pricing remains closely tied to broader supply‑demand dynamics and generally moves in line with outages, inventory shifts and macroeconomic cycles rather than independently of them. Decarbonization value, for now, continues to sit within traditional market logic. When demand for metal is subdued, buyers have shown limited appetite for paying more for material they require in smaller volumes, even where lower emissions offer supply‑chain benefits.

At the same time, global momentum to decarbonize metals supply chains continues to build, albeit at a slower and quieter pace than seen earlier in the development of these markets, according to sources.

Regulation is tightening, with measures such as the European Industrial Accelerator Act and the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism from 2026. Producers continue to invest in lower‑emission production routes, while procurement teams are increasingly required to engage with emissions data associated with the materials they purchase.

Lower carbon emission pricing is most established in steel and aluminium markets. Fastmarkets launched its first low carbon differential in 2021, starting with aluminium, followed by a reduced carbon steel differential in 2023 and a low carbon nickel differential in 2024.

The term “differential” is central to how these markets function. Differentials to conventional, or “grey”, material have ranged from $100 per tonne to $0 per tonne, according to Fastmarkets data. Lower‑carbon metal has therefore not consistently attracted a premium, with price spreads remaining wide and, for most metals, an industry‑wide definition of what constitutes “green” material still lacking.

The “pioneering days”, as some industry sources describe the period four to three years ago when lower‑emission product ranges began appearing across producer portfolios, have since been shaped by rising geopolitical tensions and broader economic weakness.

Commodity price volatility over recent years has weighed on the development of the lower carbon emission marketplace, particularly when it comes to willingness to pay among buyers without clear regulatory or contractual requirements. Despite these headwinds, Fastmarkets data suggests these markets have continued to expand quietly – not in value terms, but in terms of volume.

Since the introduction of low carbon differentials in aluminium and steel in 2021 and 2023, Fastmarkets has observed these differentials extend into additional product segments across value chains and into a wider range of regions.

Lower carbon emission premiums therefore remain present in the market, but they have largely been paid where buyers face regulatory, customer or contractual pressure to do so, rather than on a discretionary basis.

A survey by McKinsey found that by 2030 buyers expect demand for green materials – including ferrous, base and battery metals, as well as glass and plastics – to increase by between 1.7 and 4.5 times current levels, depending on the material.

Looking at what this growth in demand could mean for pricing, Fastmarkets Research forecasts volumes of low carbon material to scale up significantly by 2035. Green steel production in Europe is forecast to reach around 15.9 million tonnes by 2035, rising from less than 1% of flat steel output in 2025 to more than 20% by 2035.

As lower carbon material scales up, it is expected to move from being a niche offering towards becoming more commonplace within supply chains, with the price difference between “green” and “grey” material gradually narrowing over the longer term, according to Fastmarkets Research.

Upcharges for low carbon metals may therefore prove more transitional than initially anticipated. Over time, the role of differentials may be less about delivering a distinct return on investment and more about reflecting the gradual normalization of a lower‑emission metals supply chain – unfolding steadily rather than suddenly.