Year: 2026

According to the Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2026-2027/Q1 2025 Report from the Economic Committee of the European Steel Association (EUROFER), total exports of steel products of EU countries to foreign markets decreased by 12 percent year on year in the full year of 2025. Finished and flat product exports fell by 11 percent and eight percent, respectively, while long product exports recorded a sharp 17 percent fall, all year on year.

According to information released by EUROFER, in 2025 the main destinations for EU steel exports were the UK, US, Turkey, Switzerland and India. These five destinations together accounted for 59 percent of total EU finished product exports. Countries which recorded year-on-year increases for EU finished steel exports were Algeria with 39 percent, the United Kingdom with five percent, and India and Switzerland each with a one percent increase.

Exports declined across all major flat product categories, reflected in major decreases for cold rolled sheets with 20 percent and plate by 11 percent. In long products, shipments also decreased across all main categories, with rebars down by 35 percent and wire rod shipments down 25 percent, followed by heavy sections down by 15 percent and merchant bars decreasing by nine percent.

The EU’s steel trade deficit widened markedly in 2025, reaching about 2 million mt per month including semis, up from 1.4 million mt in 2024. For finished steel, the deficit rose to 1.2 million mt per month, driven by flat products (1.1 million mt) and long products (156,000 mt). In 2024, the finished steel deficit was 890,000 mt per month, with a flat product deficit offset slightly by a small surplus in longs.

The largest deficits in 2025 were with South Korea, Turkey, Indonesia, China, Taiwan, India, Ukraine and Vietnam, while the EU posted its biggest surpluses with the US, UK and Switzerland.

Soft demand tempered price increases in the European domestic hot-rolled coil market, Fastmarkets heard on Monday March 16.

Market participants unanimously reported the lack of interest from customers’ side amid sufficient stocks, while mills were also said to be well-booked.

“Demand isn’t strong right now, but that’s mainly because buyers already have enough material to cover their needs well ahead, while mills have sufficient orders, so no one needs to rush,” a buyer from Benelux area said.

Sellers and buyers in Northern Europe said that while last week the market leader made some initial sales at €720-730 ($822-833) per tonne ex-works, the level of €700 per tonne ex-works was still more applicable to wider trade.

Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was calculated at €705.63 ($805.61) per tonne on March 16, down by €7.49 from €713.57 on March 13.

The decrease in the index is not a sign of a market trend reversal but rather a result of the lack of new transactions at higher price levels. The index was up by €4.17 per tonne week on week and by €45.63 per tonne month on month.

Sellers from Italy hold offers for May-June delivery coils at €700 per tonne ex-works. However, latest assessments of workable prices came at €680-690 per tonne ex-works.

Fastmarkets daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was assessed at €694 per tonne on March 16, up by €1.5 per tonne from €692.50 per tonne ex-works on March 13.

The index was up by €9 per tonne week on week and by €42.4 per tonne month on month.

Market participants reported that buyers have become increasingly cautious about imports, fearing that changes in transportation routes — particularly for material sourced from Asia — could result in delays. Their concern is that shipments may not arrive before the new safeguard measures take effect in July 2026.

“Bid trading houses are not very keen to take on more business as importers of records,” a representative of a large trading company said.

Another trader noted that some Asian mills are now offering on an FOB basis, unwilling to assume the additional costs and risks associated with rapidly changing freight rates driven by the US‑Iran conflict.

HRC from India and Turkey was heard available at €560–580 per tonne CFR, with Turkish material including the anti-dumping duty.

Offers from Asia for HRC scheduled for shipment in May–June were said to be around €630–640 per tonne DDP.

Salzgitter is investing just over €2 million ($2.3m) in a new waterjet cutting system at its plate mil in Ilsenburg, the German steelmaker tells Kallanish. 

The investment is intended to contribute to the company’s expanding future segment of defence. The plate mill will deploy this technology to meet the high demands of its customers in the field of safety steels in particular, Salzgitter notes.

The new water jet cutting system is being integrated in the ongoing expansion of the cutting area of the plant. The system is relevant for the production of sensitive steel grades, where thermal distortion can occur at the cutting edges during flame cutting in oxyfuel or plasma cutting processes. In the cold cutting process, the cutting jet consisting of water, garnet sand and air ensures lower material losses for high-strength grades in a wide range of thicknesses, Salzgitter explains.

Supplied by H.G. Ridder Automatisierungs, the facility will feature a cutting table around 18 metres long as well as a maximum cutting width of over 5m. In contrast to conventional flame cutting with natural gas, the waterjet cutting system is operated with electricity using renewable energies. The project is scheduled for completion at the end of the second quarter.

Production at German steel and metal fabricators was 1.0% lower last year than in 2024, Kallanish hears from industry federation Wirtschaftsverband Stahl- und Metallverarbeitung (WSM). 

The drop in 2025 marks the fourth year of recession in a row, the federation notes. In comparison with the pre-Covid year 2019, the production volume has sunk by as much as 14.6%.

The positive detail WSM highlights is the improved activity in the second half of the year, which saw production in the fourth quarter rise to 2.1% higher than that of the fourth quarter of 2024. Demand has improved, too, though not in all sectors, WSM observes. It points at the segment of arms & ammunition production, where orders have risen five-fold since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

According to general economy data, the current year could see an uptick of production by 1-2%, WSM says. However, it notes that this is more a resurfacing from a low level after a year-long trough, rather than a change of trend.

It adds that companies have entered the year with a subdued mood. WSM cites sentiment surveys of the business climate, which shows that assessments dropped both for the current conditions as well as for expectations.

The federation speculates that this could at least be partly attributed to the erratic US policy and the resulting insecurity. An indication of this is the drop of the production capacities’ utilisation from 74% in October to 72.4% in January.

Troubled Romanian steelworks Liberty Galati has not found a buyer at the first international auction for the sale of the steel plant last week, Kallanish learns.

Although five investors purchased the specifications and analysed the offer, none submitted the necessary guarantee to participate in the auction, according to Romanian-based publication Informat.

The main reason for the lack of bidders is that the price of the assets is considered too high at approximately €720 million ($826.4m).  According to Informat, the plant’s administrators say that investors are discouraged by the high operating costs for energy, gas, and CO2 certificates, as well as the age of the facilities.

It is understood that the plant could be put up for auction again but at a reduced price, estimated at €420-500m.

Liberty Galati and Euro Insol, the company’s bankruptcy administrator, did not reply to a request for comment by Kallanish at the time of publication.

Among those believed to have expressed interest are industrial groups from India, China, Turkey, Ukraine and Iraq, as well as the Romanian company UMB Grup.

Also, on the list of potential buyers are JSW Steel and Jindal Group from India, DeLong Steel from China, KMC Steel from Turkey, Galiawa Group from Iraq and Metinvest from Ukraine.

The Ukrainian group is already present in Romania, after its acquisition of the ArcelorMittal Tubular Products factory, which completed in December.

Liberty Galati has amended an earlier restructuring plan proposed by the two administrators, which was approved by the Galati County Court.

The plant has annual production capacity of around 2.5 million tonnes of steel for the construction, naval, oil and gas, and power generation sectors. It was acquired by Liberty Steel Group from ArcelorMittal in July 2019.

The plant entered into a preventive arrangement in March 2024, in an attempt to avoid bankruptcy. Since then, the plant’s activity has been severely affected.

Last summer, Liberty Galati resumed operations at its metallurgical plant following a pause of almost a year.

Jindal has submitted a new bid to acquire troubled Italian steelmaker Acciaierie d’Italia (ADI), the Minister of Enterprises and Made in Italy Adolfo Urso confirms during a Senate hearing monitored by Kallanish.

“The Indian group Jindal, market leader on a global scale has submitted… an expression of interest for the entire steel complex with an ambitious industrial plan guaranteeing the process of full decarbonisation. This opens a new phase in the negotiations,” Urso says.

The special commissioners overseeing ADI’s sale will now examine the new bid and compare it with the offer submitted by Flacks Group, Urso adds. He reiterates that the government aims to identify a new owner for Ilva before the end of April.

Meanwhile, the maintenance programme currently underway at the Taranto steelworks is expected to be completed by the end of next month. The plant should then resume operations with two blast furnaces, No. 2 and No. 4, with a combined production capacity of up to 4 million tonnes/year.

Last year the Taranto site operated with only one blast furnace, No. 4, which was idled on 28 February 2026 for maintenance. At the same time, restart operations for blast furnace No. 2 were initiated.

Meanwhile, Flacks Group is in discussions with Italian steelmaker and re-roller Marcegaglia, as well as Metinvest and technology supplier Danieli regarding the industrial plan Flacks intends to implement for ADI after its acquisition. This was confirmed to Kallanish by Flacks chairman Michael Flacks, Antonio Marcegaglia and Danieli president Alessandro Brussi.

Domestic prices for hot-rolled coil (HRC) in Europe increased further in the week to 13 March due to rising costs, limited imports and some revival in buying activity. 

In Northwest Europe, deals for domestic HRC have been reported at EUR690-730/t ex-works, with both ends of the range representing a limited number of the deals. The majority of transactions have been heard at EUR700-720/t ex-works.

While buying activity in the region has seen some revival due to buyers’ concerns over shortages, the average tonnage of the transactions was smaller as mills have good order books and feel under no pressure to chase volumes. Buyers, in the meantime, have also been cautious in their restocking, as they evaluate whether the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and consequent energy price increases and delivery disruptions would be more impactful on supply or demand. Northwest European mills have limited volumes of May shipment coil and some have been preparing to offer June rolling.

In Italy, unlike in northern Europe, trading activity has been muted due to higher stocks of the distributors. But sentiment, nonetheless, has been bullish as the steelmakers felt no need to chase volumes.

“The trend is upwards, but the high stocks of the buyers slowdown the impact of energy prices, logistics costs and lack of import offers,” an Italian distributor said.

Some deals and workable prices for domestic HRC in Italy have been heard at EUR690-700/t ex-works.

Import offers limited

The number of coil offers from overseas has been limited due to the impact of rising freight and other costs and logistical issues. Suppliers from Asia, which previously went through the Suez Canal, will now have to be rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in higher freight costs and longer lead times. In fact, the first ships have already used the alternative route.

Some sources reported orders cancelled by exporters from Asia due to the sharp rise in freight costs. But such instances were not widely reported in the market.

While delays in the delivery of imported coil in the EU are unlikely to exceed one month, buyers have grown concerned that the delivery disruptions would result in higher duties. The timing of the potential delays is critical, as the EU’s new quota system is expected to come into force from July this year.

Under the new quota system, a 47% reduction in volume and a doubling of duties to 50% have been proposed. Lack of details on the country-specific quotas or any caps in the global quotas has made European importers extremely cautious on steel imports arriving in the third quarter. The delivery delays greatly increase the likelihood of exceeding the new tighter quotas.

Import offers for HRC from Turkey have been heard at EUR570-580/t CIF Italy and from India at EUR570/t CIF Italy.

Only larger buyers, such as pipemakers, have been willing to risk acquiring steel on a CIF basis. Smaller importers have switched to DDP purchases to reduce risks related to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) duties.

European buyers estimated CBAM duties for imported HRC at EUR40-80/t based on actual emission values. But until exporters obtain the certifications – in 2027 for imports during 2026 – European importers risk that the duties would be calculated based on default values resulting in substantially higher costs.

Import offers on a DDP basis have been reported at EUR630-680/t – much closer to European domestic prices.

And taking into account the expected quota reduction, buyers have been showing more interest in less risky domestic supply of coil.

CRC supply scarce

European steelmakers continued to avoid sales of cold-rolled coil (CRC) due to higher exposure to energy costs. And taking into account the recent rise of energy prices, buyers have been concerned that steelmakers will continue to avoid sales of the product.

European steelmakers have been focused on either HRC sales or on trading of hot-dipped galvanized coil (HDG), which use HRC as feedstock.

Domestic CRC prices in Northwest Europe were reported at EUR790-820/t ex-works.

Interest in imported CRC has been restricted as buyers await the results of the anti-dumping case into imports from India, Japan, Turkey, Vietnam and Taiwan, China.

HDG premiums rise

Domestic prices for HDG were heard at EUR795-820/t ex-works, with some suppliers trying to achieve EUR850-860/t ex-works.

The logistics disruptions combined with higher energy costs drove zinc prices up. As a result, some European steelmakers have revised the extras lists for the coating, adding around EUR20-30/t to existing price lists.

Green steel market

Demand for green steel remained muted as buyers have been focused on the changes in the traditional steel market. Although some mills said that they have seen higher demand from end users that choose to approach them directly as distribution cannot satisfy the needs for low-CO2 steel. Construction and automotive remain the two primary industries involved in green steel trading.

Market sources estimated green steel premiums for HRC with CO2 content of around 0.7t at EUR80-100/t.

Some sources said that similar products from overseas are available with significantly lower premiums – around EUR30/t – from mills that can prove their CO2 emissions with certificates.

While the green steel market remains small, market sources believe that the European Commission’s proposed Industrial Accelerator Act could boost demand for low-CO2 steel.

European heavy plate prices jumped in the week to 13 March, driven by disruptions to trading flows from the conflict in the Middle East and resultant upward pressure on input slab imports.

McCloskey reported offer price increases of EUR30-50/t from European re-rollers earlier this week, back in the market after withdrawing previous offers in response to rising freight and energy costs.

Heavy plate prices in Northwest Europe were heard at around EUR800/t ex-works for s235jr grade, or around EUR850/t delivered for s355 material.

In the re-roller dominant Italian market, market participants reported trading between EUR750-770/t ex-works against offers as high as EUR800/t ex-works, though mill sources said a significant portion of the market continue to hold back from proactively offering, preferring to settle prices in direct negotiation with interested buyers or refrain from trading entirely until the geopolitical outlook is more clear.

“Plate prices are higher due to costs,” said a re-roller source. “Energy, logistics, slabs – customers couldn’t deny some increases.”

Chinese exporters are keeping slab offers at high prices as traders step up their inquiries to fill the gaps from Iranian supply, though the steep levels are deterring many buyers from committing on deals.

Slab import offers to the EU were reported at $550-580/t CIF from Asian exporters, and these imports will themselves be subject to further costs from CBAM, compounding pressures. Volume availability is also a concern for importers due to limited supplies of June shipment slab from Asia.

Fortunately for buyers, inventories are sufficient to constrain significant panic buying at present, though distributors remain uncertain as to potential developments moving forward.

“Customers aren’t buying, the picture is not clear,” said an Italian distributor. “Most customers purchased before the conflict so pressure to buy isn’t so high, especially as consumption isn’t increasing.”