Category: Latest Updates

Speaking at the EUROMETAL Steel Day & 11th YISAD Flat Steel Conference held at Istanbul Marriott Hotel Asia on Tuesday, March 24, in cooperation with SteelOrbis, Lars Hillmann, lawyer/counsel at law firm Cattwyk, presented an overview of the legal framework and expected market impact of the EU’s post-safeguard steel trade measures.

Recalling that the current EU steel safeguard system, in force since 2018, will expire on June 20, 2026, reaching the maximum eight-year duration allowed under WTO rules, Mr. Hillman noted that the European Commission is preparing a new trade measure that will replace the existing safeguard system.

New measure to significantly reduce quotas, to double tariffs to 50 percent

The proposal foresees a total quota volume of around 18.3 million mt per year, compared to approximately 34 million mt under the current measures, marking a 47 percent reduction in import volumes. The new framework is expected to introduce an out-of-quota tariff of 50 percent, doubling the current 25 percent duty applied under safeguards. Hillmann noted that this change would represent a significant tightening of EU trade protection measures for steel imports.

Unlike the current safeguard measures, the new measure is designed to be permanent, with no predefined expiry. “This is a permanent measure… We have a permanent measure because there is a permanent problem,” he said. The new system is expected to enter into force on July 1, 2026, immediately after the existing safeguards lapse.

“Melt and pour” rule to reshape origin requirements

Hillmann highlighted the introduction of a “melt and pour” rule, under which importers will be required to prove the country where the steel was originally melted and cast. According to Hillman, the “melt and pour” criteria will not be another part of “the rules of origin”, it will be independent of that. This requirement will determine access to country-specific quotas and is expected to increase administrative complexity at customs level.

Meanwhile, the proposed system would apply to all countries (erga omnes), with only EEA countries exempt. Hillmann underlined that FTA partners would be included, and developing country exemptions would be removed, representing a broader scope compared to the current safeguard regime.

He noted that negotiations with multiple WTO members would be required, compensation may need to be offered, and trading partners could respond with retaliatory measures if no agreement is reached. “If there is no agreement, trading partners are free to implement countermeasures as they see fit,” he stated.

Speaking at the EUROMETAL Steel Day & YISAD Flat Steel Conference held at the Istanbul Marriott Hotel Asia on Tuesday, March 24, in cooperation with SteelOrbis, Cosmin Bakai, global director of raw material supply chain development at automotive safety components manufacturer Autoliv, stated that the European automotive components sector is under pressure from rising Chinese competition, increasing imports and geopolitical uncertainties. Mr. Bakai indicated that global light vehicle production is expected to grow by around 1.3 percent by 2030, while growth in Europe will remain much more limited, with the market generally displaying a stagnant outlook.

Global automotive market – growth to remain limited

Commenting on the sectoral outlook, Bakai said that annual global vehicle production and sales stand at around 100 million units, but production is not expected to return to pre-Covid-19 levels. From a European perspective, he emphasized that the market is gradually shrinking, noting that exports of light vehicles from Europe are showing a flat or weak trend, while import pressure is increasing. Bakai also highlighted that European light vehicle production is contracting due to imports, traditional EU-based manufacturers are losing market share, and China is steadily gaining a larger share of the global market.

Chinese investments in Europe and scale dynamics

Addressing the investment plans of Chinese automotive manufacturers in Europe, Mr. Bakai said that new facilities are being planned in countries such as Italy, Poland, Hungary, Spain and Turkey. However, he underlined that these investments will initially be relatively small in scale. According to Bakai, Chinese players typically start with plants of around 50,000 units in Europe, then move to assembly structures of 100,000 units, while full-scale facilities emerge at capacity levels of around 300,000 units. Therefore, he noted that such investments may not immediately generate large tonnage demand in components, safety equipment and steel processing, and that it will take time for Chinese players to establish themselves in local markets.

Component trade outpacing vehicle trade

Bakai stated that the main pressure stems not only from vehicle trade but also from the transformation on the components side. He pointed out that global component trade is growing much faster than the vehicle market, adding that the volume of China-origin components imported into Europe reached $8 billion last year, nearly doubling compared to three years ago.

Referring to protectionist measures in the US, Bakai said that the European Union exports approximately $11 billion worth of components annually to the US, while tariffs are putting pressure on this flow. He also noted that high duties on steel-based components may push Chinese suppliers to seek alternative markets, which could further increase competitive pressure on Europe. In his presentation, geopolitical instability, protectionism, tariffs and energy costs were listed among the key risk areas facing the sector.

Short- and medium-term outlook for Europe

Bakai added that he does not expect a clear recovery for the European steel industry in the short and medium term. He stated that European light vehicle production is shrinking due to import pressure, while intense competition within China is creating increasingly strong competitors. He concluded that future decisions regarding industry and trade policies in Europe will be decisive for the sector’s trajectory.

Speaking at the EUROMETAL Steel Day & YISAD Flat Steel Conference, organized in collaboration with SteelOrbis at the Istanbul Marriott Hotel Asia on Tuesday, March 24, Anıl Akalın, environmental markets, country president Turkey & GCC at UK-based consulting company Redshaw Advisors, stated that the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will significantly increase costs and reshape trade flows for exporters targeting the European market.

Akalın noted that the definitive phase of CBAM began on January 1, 2026, marking the transition toward full financial implementation of the mechanism.

Gradual phase-in until 2034

According to Akalın, CBAM certificates will become available during 2026, while the first certificate surrender deadline is set for September 30, 2027.

The mechanism will be gradually phased in until 2034, when 100 percent of embedded emissions will be covered, in parallel with the full phase-out of free allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System. Non-compliance under CBAM will result in penalties of €100/mt, while failure to obtain declarant status may lead to fines of up to €500/mt.

Scope to expand across sectors

CBAM is expected to expand its scope over time. By 2028, sectors such as white goods, automotive, metals and machinery are expected to be included, with downstream industries such as plastics and chemicals likely to follow in later phases. Akalın emphasized that the mechanism will become increasingly comprehensive, with the full cost burden ultimately borne by producers.

Carbon prices expected to rise in long term

Akalın highlighted that CBAM certificate prices are not directly equal to EU ETS allowance prices but are derived from similar market mechanisms. EU carbon prices have shown significant volatility over the past decade, and current lower levels should not be interpreted as a long-term trend.

Analysts expect carbon prices to increase over time, potentially reaching €200 as the market approaches the 2030s. By 2050, declining supply of emission allowances is expected to support sustained high carbon prices.

Significant cost impact for Turkish exports

According to estimates shared during the presentation, Turkish steel exports to the EU could face additional costs of around 11 percent of product prices by 2026.

For Turkey, total CBAM-related costs are projected to reach €771 million in 2026 and increase to approximately €2.5 billion annually by 2032. This could result in a reduction of EU-bound exports by around two to three percent over the same period. Aluminum and cement exports are expected to face even higher cost impacts.

Verified emissions critical to cost management

Akalın also highlighted the importance of emissions verification in reducing compliance costs. Based on a model calculation for 50,000 mt of flat steel imports, CBAM costs for 2026 are estimated at approximately €5.8 million when default emission values are applied, compared to around €1.4 million under verified emissions.

Even after adjusting for carbon costs already paid at origin, the cost remains significantly higher under default values at approximately €4.8 million, versus about €1.1 million under verified data.

These findings underline the importance of accurate emissions reporting and verification in managing CBAM-related cost exposure for exporters.

Speaking at the EUROMETAL Steel Day & YISAD Flat Steel Conference held in Istanbul on March 24, Alexander Julius, president of EUROMETAL, stated that upcoming EU steel trade measures and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are expected to drive steel prices higher in Europe.

According to Julius, the new EU measures, set to replace existing safeguards after June 30, 2026, and to take effect from July 1, 2026, will significantly restrict supply. The planned halving of import quotas is expected to create a unilateral shortage in the market.

High duties seen as major barrier to trade

Julius emphasized that the 50 percent out-of-quota duty is “non-digestible” for market participants. Once import quotas are exhausted, companies importing steel into the EU, including from Turkey, would be required to pay the full duty, which cannot be absorbed or passed on to customers. He described this as a critical issue for future trade relations, particularly given the quarterly quota system, where importers may face duties early in the period.

CBAM adding cost pressure across value chain

In addition to trade measures, Julius highlighted that CBAM is already contributing to rising steel prices in Europe. He noted that the mechanism increases costs not only for European steel producers but also for importers and end-users, as carbon costs are passed through the value chain. At the same time, uncertainties remain regarding emission calculation methodologies and regulatory definitions, creating additional challenges for market participants.

Steel-based imports raise competitiveness concerns

Julius also pointed to the growing inflow of steel-based products into the EU, which are often not subject to the same duties, carbon costs or safeguard measures. This situation is seen as undermining the competitiveness of European manufacturing, as companies increasingly relocate production outside the EU and re-import finished components. According to industry data, the automotive sector accounts for around 40 percent of such imports.

Turkish exporters face uncertainty

From the perspective of Turkish exporters, Julius noted that uncertainty among EU buyers remains high due to quota limitations and the risk of 50 percent duties. He suggested that an export licensing system aligned with EU quota levels, similar to those used by South Korea and Taiwan, could help stabilize trade flows. Such a system would ensure that exports do not exceed quota volumes, allowing European customers to avoid unexpected duties.

Global protectionism intensifies trade pressure

Julius also highlighted the broader global context, noting that protectionist measures are increasing. The United States has expanded its Section 232 tariffs to include steel-based products with duties of up to 50 percent, with Canada adopting similar measures. These developments are expected to redirect global trade flows toward the EU market, increasing competitive pressure.

Structural shifts in EU steel market

Within Europe, the steel service center sector continues to process around 46 million mt annually, with overall capacity remaining relatively stable.

However, production is increasingly shifting toward higher-value products, while lower-value manufacturing activities are being relocated into the region. Industry consolidation is ongoing, with larger players expanding their market share and investing in advanced processing technologies.

Decarbonization remains key focus

Despite these challenges, decarbonization continues to be a central priority across the steel value chain.

Companies are maintaining investments in emissions reduction, renewable energy and logistics improvements, while demand for low-carbon steel products remains present in certain end-user segments.

On Tuesday, March 24, the EUROMETAL Steel Day & YİSAD Flat Steel Conference, organized in collaboration with SteelOrbis at the Istanbul Marriott Hotel Asia, kicked off with nearly 400 participants.

Now in its 11th year, the event – which has gained an international profile in recent years with Eurometal’s inclusion – was sponsored by Tatmetal, with other sponsors including Ağır Haddecilik, Yatırım Finansman, Gökmetal and Yametaş.

Delivering the opening remarks, Tayfun İşeri, chairman of Turkey’s Association of Flat Steel Importers and Manufacturers (YISAD), expressed his satisfaction with the strong interest in the conference despite the challenging global conditions, noting that it had created a productive platform for speakers to share their knowledge and experience.

Touching on global developments, Mr. İşeri noted that, in recent years, the flat steel sector has faced numerous challenges, including the Russia-Ukraine war, the earthquakes in Turkey, and developments in Gaza and the Middle East. Emphasizing that trade costs have risen and protectionist tendencies have strengthened during this period, he said that expectations regarding the fight against inflation and interest rate cuts also appear to have been postponed.

Noting that there are serious challenges regarding demand in the flat steel sector, the YİSAD chairman stated that many companies have begun to slow down their planned investments. Stating that finding a short-term solution to the current problems is difficult, İşeri added that such platforms as the EUROMETAL-YİSAD conference hold great importance in bringing sectoral players together on common ground.

Brazilian steelmaker Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN) plans to start green hydrogen production in August-September this year through a demonstration plant, Kallanish learns.

The so-called Selene project is being developed by CSN Inova, the steelmaker’s innovation branch. Once operational, it will produce up to 709 tonnes/year of hydrogen, following an investment of BRL 120 million ($22.9m).

According to Vinicius Sant’Ana, CSN Paraná plant general manager, the launch marks an important step towards the future of the industry and renewable fuels.

“This strategic initiative reinforces our commitment to decarbonisation, driving sustainable solutions for both industry and mobility,” he adds.

While production is set to supply vehicles including trucks, fork-lift and buses in and around the mill, the steelmaker has yet to confirm whether it plans to use hydrogen in its steelmaking process. CSN Paraná is a lamination and coating unit situated in Araucária, with capacity to produce 130,000t/y of pre-painted steel, 230,000t/y of galvanized steel and 150,000t/y of hot-rolled stripped coils.

“The future of the industry is built when innovation, scale and market begin to move together,” comments Weber Reis, CSN commercial general manager. “The energy transition requires technology, but it also demands coordination, a business model and implementation capacity.”

According to the company’s website, the CSN group, which includes mining, cement, energy and logistics units, has mapped more than 100 projects and technologies under viability studies. Yet, details on decarbonising targets and strategies have yet to be disclosed.

Brasília has recently launched a sectoral plan for the decarbonisation of industry, seeking to increase renewable energy consumption, amongst other things, to above 65% over the next ten years. Some of the priorities relate to promoting energy efficiency, electrification of processes, adoption of scrap and charcoal as steelmaking inputs instead of coke or coking coal, plus the use of carbon capture and storage technology and hydrogen.

Kallanish has contacted CSN for further information.

 

Czech crude steel production reached 2.43 million tonnes in 2025, flat on-year, remaining at its lowest level in history, while consumption remained at 5.5mt, the lowest-ever figure except for the 2009 financial crisis year, says the Czech and Slovak steel association, Steel Union.

The crude steel output fall has been largely due to the deterioration and eventual closing of crude steelmaking at Nova Hut, formerly Liberty Ostrava, Kallanish notes.

Production of finished steel actually increased in 2025, by 14% and 61% respectively for long and flat products to 2.07 million tonnes and 805,000t. However, this was down to the restart of operations at Nova Hut after the new owner was installed last year. Pipe production rose 35% to 314,000t.

“We are facing one of the largest and longest crises caused by external factors that fundamentally disrupt economic stability on a European scale and weaken the competitiveness of the European Union,” says Steel Union supervisory board member and Trinecke Zelezarny chief executive Roman Heide.

EU mills are under threat from low-priced imports, high energy prices, and elevated and unstable emission allowance prices, he notes. The Emissions Trading System is “unpredictable and subject to market speculation that we have no control over. The costs of European producers are therefore constantly rising and their competitiveness is continuing to deteriorate,” he adds.

The development ignores the economic reality and the actual functioning of the market “in favour of ideologically motivated approaches”, Heide says.

Czech steel imports rose by 900,000t last year to 7.5mt, with exports growing at a slower pace to 3.4mt.

 

Deutsche Bahn could be Europe’s biggest customer for rails made of reduced emissions steel, but instead, lags far behind its neighbours in creating such a strategy for its railway services.

At Handelsblatt’s Zukunft Stahl conference in Essen, attended by Kallanish, Nadine Artelt, sales director at Saarstahl and ceo of Saarstahl Rail addressed the failure of Germany’s national railways to become a lead market for green steel.

Although Saarstahl is a German company, its business with reduced carbon emission steel is far bigger in the neighbouring countries than on its home turf. Last year, it signed a supply contract with the UK’s Network Rail for a minimum of 78,000 tonnes, and another with France’s SNCF of up to 170,00t/year over six years, plus others.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bahn contracted a trial volume of 1,000t in November. “We won that tender because there was no one else who would go for a mere 1,000 tonnes,” Artelt quipped.

Max-Christian Lange of DB’s division for sustainability and environment, stated that he “would like very much to contract much bigger volumes”, but highlighted multiple hurdles in the decision process caused by the company’s network of subsidiaries.

DB’s decisions are also slowed by the responsibilities of various political bodies of its main owner, the German state. One of the unsolved questions, for example, is which public coffer to tap to pay the green premium that comes with such products.

Artelt also queried if the process of approval was getting “lost in bureaucracy”. She mentioned the billions granted by the government so far to support green steel technology, and pointed at the paradox that the government does not create a customer market for that steel where it could. She sees the annual rail demand of DB at 250,000t.

“As a German, I would value very much that Germany catches up in this regard,” Artelt said.

 

UK steel traders fear business closures and job losses as a result of the planned 60% reduction in tariff-rate quota volumes and increase in the out-of-quota tariff to 50%, Kallanish learns.

“The quota changes are not going to fix anything,” says one trader. He queries the proposed hot-rolled quota levels versus actual demand levels, suggesting domestic producers cannot fulfil all the volumes.

“It’s going to be so risky [to import]. It’s tremendously complicated especially with CBAM coming on the back of this. You almost have to expect to pay the 50% tariff,” he adds. “If the HR price goes up in excess of 50%, that’s over £900/tonne [$1,198t], which is going to filter through into all manufacturing products. We’re going to witness inflation, or we import finished goods and shut down manufacturing.”

Another trading source says the changes are concerning for their business. “We don’t want to get caught out, what’s the point in taking that risk?” he says. “The quotas will halve my trading activity and output. Is it enough to sustain my business?”

“The next six months will see such a strain on supply. UK downstream manufacturing will suffer, especially if fabricator costs go up 50% in the next few weeks,” he concludes.

Julian Verden, chairman of the International Steel Trade Association (ISTA), says the association is “astounded” by the provisional detail of the new measures, which were announced as part of the Steel Strategy.

“The new quota numbers suggest that importing steel once these measures are fully in place will be in practical terms nearly impossible for many products and origins as managing quotas, estimating balances and thus the duty risk of 50% will make pricing uncompetitive for the final end users,” he warns.

He sees this could lead to reduced activity, investment and exports of finished products. “This inflationary move is completely unaffordable in the current uncertain environment. ISTA remains committed to supporting UK steel production but is also fully behind the downstream steel using industries and believes this can be achieved with a blend of imports and domestic production rather than a blockade,” Verden concludes.

Another market participant describes the changes as “non-sensical”, and hopes the UK is “posturing” in an attempt to get the EU around the table to negotiate. “[The changes] are not thought through properly. There has been no thought to downstream. This appears to be wholly 100% aligned to steel mills,” he tells Kallanish.

He also queries whether some stockholders who rely on imports will be able to survive. “If this is the new norm, then prices will escalate, domestic producers will fall over, and the UK will lose a huge amount of manufacturing and jobs to foreign shores,” he concludes.

Meanwhile, Laurence McDougall, managing director of All Steels Trading, says there is no clarity without the formal publication of the details of the new measures.

He also queries whether end-users would be able to absorb significantly higher steel prices, while competing against imported finished goods that are not subject to equivalent duties. “Without addressing this imbalance, there is a risk that domestic steel consumption will fade away unless the government closes the loophole,” he warns.

With EU-origin material included in the quotas, this could equate to additional costs in the region of £300-400/t, McDougall adds. He sees immediate market adjustments as unrealistic and therefore price increases will be staged, a strategy employed by some producers since the start of the Middle East conflict.

 

The supervisory board of Salzgitter AG has elected Ulrike Brouzi as its new chairwoman, Kallanish learns. Her term of office begins with immediate effect. She is the first woman on the chair post

Brouzi is an executive manager of DZ Bank, the central institution for approximately 700 cooperative banks and their around 7,200 branch offices.

Since 2013, she has been a member of the supervisory board of Salzgitter. She has played a key role in shaping the steelmaker’s strategic direction of the past few years, says Gerald Heere, finance minister of state Lower Saxony.

“She is intimately familiar with the group’s processes, structures and strategic direction, and is therefore an excellent choice as chair of the supervisory board,” Heere is quoted as saying by public broadcaster NDR. Heere is a member of Salzgitter’s supervisory board, where he represents the main shareholder, the state of Lower Saxony.

The former chairman, Heinz-Gerhard Wente, stepped down in October 2025. Hans-Jürgen Urban took over as deputy chairman of the supervisory board on an interim basis.