Italian rebar prices rise as mills seek increases
Italian rebar prices are ticking up by around €10/tonne ($11.84/t) compared with January, following recent increases announced by producers, who are targeting €320/t base ex-works, Kallanish notes.
Several buyers, however, say market activity has yet to fully recover after the Christmas holidays. Demand in January and February remains subdued, with heavy rainfall in central Italy delaying construction activity, agents and buyers confirm.
One large European producer adds that the rebar market across Europe is generally weak, with only limited exceptions. Producers are under pressure to push price increases as costs, particularly energy, continue to rise.
Scrap prices are also moving higher across Europe, while in Italy they are increasing more sharply due to tight availability.
Despite producers’ firm attitudes, price increases have so far been implemented only moderately. Average contract prices are currently around €300/t base ex-works. Volumes concluded above this level are for small tonnages.
Mesh prices are also ticking up to €390-400/t base ex-works, plus approximately €300/t in extras. Including size extras of €260-270/t, effective rebar transaction prices are currently assessed at €560-580/t ex-works, sources suggest. One steelmaker is rumoured to have decreased extras only for some commodity grade mesh by €20/t to possibly stimulate demand.
Meanwhile, rebar producers active on the German market are continuing their attempts to increase prices, but buyers remain caution.
Currently base prices are at €350/t, translating to €615/t delivered, including €265/t for size extra. One international mill group was heard going for €20-30/t extra for its products. According to a central German manager, domestic mills confine themselves to €15-20/t for the moment, which is little above the increase of scrap prices in January (see Kallanish 5 February).
Commission acts against dumped imports of High-Pressure Seamless Steel Cylinders
The European Commission has imposed definitive anti-dumping duties on imports of high-pressure seamless steel cylinders originating from China.
The duties range from 57.7% to 90.3% and follow an investigation which concluded that Chinese imports were being dumped on the EU market, causing injury to EU producers. The investigation covered high-pressure seamless steel cylinders for compressed or liquefied gas, across all diameters and volume capacities.
According to the Commission, the measures are intended to restore fair competition between Chinese manufacturers and EU-based producers. The EU industry concerned is located in Austria, the Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany and Italy.
During the investigation period, from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2024, the EU market amounted to approximately 6.4 million units, of which 4.5 million units were imported from China.
This decision forms part of the EU’s broader trade defence efforts to address unfair trade practices and safeguard European industrial capacity.
Source: ec.europa.eu
Sarralle commissions ArcelorMittal Belval upgrade
Spanish technology and engineering supplier Sarralle Group tells Kallanish it has completed the upgrade of ArcelorMittal’s Belval plant in Luxembourg. The facility has a capacity of 1.3 million tonnes/year of beam blanks and blooms.
The so-called Steel Up project enables ArcelorMittal to produce high-quality steel for the long products market, particularly for its Rodange rolling mills, independently. It will thereby reduce its dependence on semi-finished steel supplied by German blast furnace-based plants.
ArcelorMittal was said to be ready to hot commission the new electric arc furnace at Belval in December, with ramp-up scheduled for January.
The investment included the engineering and supply of a new 155-tonne Direct Current electric arc furnace and 145t vacuum degasser. Sarralle also upgraded the six-strand continuous casting machine, fumes exhaust and material handling systems, as well as the water treatment plant.
“The project aims to reinforce the long-term competitiveness of the Belval plant’s sustainable production, supporting ArcelorMittal’s strategy to modernise and prepare its European operations for the future,” Sarralle explains. The equipment is set to improve operational efficiency, reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions, while minimising maintenance requirements.
Thyssenkrupp signs several green electricity contracts
Thyssenkrupp Steel has finalised four contracts securing supply of around 230 GWh of green electricity, furthering progress towards the decarbonisation of its steel production.
The power purchase agreements (PPAs) with the suppliers Quadra Energy, Statkraft, Centrica Energy, and Sunnic Lighthouse encompass a portfolio of wind and photovoltaic (PV) installations distributed across Germany, Kallanish learns.
The PPAs will procure green electricity supply for the subsidiaries thyssenkrupp Rasselstein, thyssenkrupp Precision Steel, and thyssenkrupp Electrical Steel.
The contract volume of around 230 GWh equates to the typical electricity consumption of around 70,000 households. The green power supplies originate from newly commissioned solar photovoltaic installations and from onshore wind farms in Germany that are no longer state-subsidised, helping them to continue operating on an economically viable basis, tk Steel notes.
The purchase of green electricity avoids over 70,000 tonnes/year of CO2 emissions.
The medium-wide strip making unit in Hagen-Hohenlimburg has been sourcing green electricity from a neighbouring wind farm in since the summer of 2024. The group claims that this is the first project nationwide involving power supplied directly from a wind farm to a German industrial company.
Author: Christian Koehl Germany
German rebar mills seeking higher prices in February
Rebar makers active on the German market have repeated their attempts to increase prices, as expected, but buyers are still cautious as to whether these will bring the market forward.
So far, buyers would still see the former base price of €350/tonne ($413/t) as the current level, translating to €615/t delivered, including €265/t for size extras and expect only small increases on deals going forward.
One international mill group was heard going for €20-30/t extra for its products. According to a central German manager, domestic mills confine themselves to €15-20/t for the moment, which is little above the increase of scrap prices in January.
“Mills have come out of hibernation with offer prices of €360-365/t, but this is only the first call. We still need to get a feel for how the economy does and for construction to come back,” he tells Kallanish.
He and others do not see the activity that would give grounds for an elevated price level. According to another source, new offers for wire mesh are correspondingly at €460/t base. “I think it will be late February before a new price structure emerges,” he says.
So far, cold weather and snow still prevent construction activity in various regions from picking up. This is the case in the east, but also in parts of central to northern Germany, where snow is rare. In the west, however, temperatures have been much friendlier lately.
European HRC market firm; increase slows as buyers resist higher offers
European hot-rolled coil prices were broadly unchanged on Wednesday February 4, with buyers being resisting higher offers, which have been caused by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism’s (CBAM) impact on imports rather than strong local demand, Fastmarkets heard.
In Northern Europe, HRC prices were holding firm, with no clear signs of a trend reversal. But new offers for April delivery met resistance, as buyers were reluctant to accept higher prices, leading to slower growth despite generally upbeat sentiment, driven by CBAM.
In Germany and the Benelux area, offers for second-quarter-delivery coil were reported at €670-675 ($792-798) per tonne from integrated mills.
Meanwhile, recent transactions were not exceeding €650 per tonne ex-works. Notably, a medium-sized deal was heard done in Germany at this level. A buyer, however, pointed out that it was done “for leftovers of March-delivery coil, while of April delivery the sellers were looking to achieve higher prices.”
Other stakeholders suggested that it might take suppliers “weeks, if not a month or two,” to seal higher offers in deals, mainly because of end-users’ resistance to accept increases.
“Real demand is not improving, and this is the main issue. The recent uptrend is artificially pushed by CBAM uncertainty and consequently limited imports,” a second buyer said.
A third buyer also agreed that the “price increase comes mainly from CBAM and the uncertainty related to it, which makes customers consider buying in the EU rather than going for imports.”
As a result, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €651 per tonne on Wednesday, down by €0.07 per tonne from €651.07 per tonne on Tuesday February 3.
The index was also down by €4 per tonne week on week but up by €23.50 per tonne month on month.
After the index was published, a source reported that one German mill had sold “leftover tonnages” of March-delivery coil at €620 per tonne ex-works. A fourth buyer source claimed that the transaction was done at €620 per tonne CPT (around €605-610 per tonne ex-works), but this was not widely confirmed by other sources.
The majority of sources that spoke to Fastmarkets on February 4 estimated achievable prices for HRC in the region at €650 per tonne ex-works.
Fastmarkets’ corresponding daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €647.50 per tonne on Wednesday, up by €0.50 per tonne from €647 per tonne a day earlier.
But the index was up by €5 per tonne week on week and by €24.38 per tonne month on month.
Offers were heard at €650-660 per tonne EXW, with several sources saying that March delivery now “is almost gone,” with last batches of material being traded at €640 per tonne EXW.
CRC, HDG prices little changed in Northern Europe as buyers resist April offers; imports booked despite CBAM risks
Domestic prices for cold-rolled and hot-dip galvanized coil in Northern Europe were little changed in the week to Wednesday February 4; buyers were reluctant to accept new offers, with some opting for risky import bookings to diversify supply sources, Fastmrkets heard.
Domestic market
Integrated suppliers in Northern Europe were able to offer April delivery for both CRC and HDG, with first-quarter volumes said to be sold out.
Higher offer prices for CRC and HDG with April lead times, announced in late January by major suppliers across Europe, were not sealed in deals so far.
Notably, in Germany, Sweden and the Benelux area, offer prices for CRC varied in the range of €790-815 ($934-964) per tonne ex-works, depending on supplier.
For HDG, offers were slightly lower, at €790-805 per tonne ex-works.
While the price rise was still being absorbed by the market, buyer feedback across both Northern and Southern Europe continued to point to lower achievable transaction levels for cold-rolled and hot-dipped galvanized products.
Buyers in Germany, Sweden and the Benelux area estimated workable levels for CRC at no higher than €750-770 per tonne ex-works and for HDG at €760-770 per tonne ex-works — pretty much in line with the previous assessment period.
Suppliers agreed that it was hard to seal new offers in deals, with some mill`s indicating achievable levels for CRC around €770 per tonne ex-works and €770-780 per tonne ex-works for HDG.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessments for steel cold-rolled coil domestic, exw Northern Europe and for steel hot-dipped galvanized coil domestic, exw Northern Europe were €760-770 per tonne on Wednesday, both narrowing upward by €10 per tonne from €750-770 per tonne on January 28.
Imports
Sources in Germany reported transactions for overseas coil, despite ongoing uncertainty around Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) costs for imports.
Europe’s cold-rolled coil market has historically relied heavily on imported material, particularly for standard commodity grades. But recent regulatory changes have significantly narrowed sourcing options. In particular, an ongoing anti-dumping probe covering CRC shipments from India, Japan, Taiwan, Turkey and Vietnam — which together account for roughly two-thirds of the EU’s total CRC import volume — has materially reduced the availability of foreign supply.
“We take the risk [of importing coil] to diversify supply sources. Plus, new safeguards will come into force in July — so it is best to import coil before that, because the new regime suggests a 50% imports cut,” a buyer in Germany said.
Last week the European Parliament voted in favor of a new trade regime for the steel sector, proposing lower import quotas and capping tariff-free steel imports at 18.3 million tonnes per year, down by 47% from 2024 quota levels. The new regime, still subject to European Council vote, is expected to come into effect as of July 1.
A transaction for China-origin CRC was reported at €770 per tonne DDP, inclusive of CBAM costs and an anti-dumping duty.
Brazilian CRC was heard booked in Benelux and Germany at €730-750 per tone DDP, inclusive of CBAM costs.
The weekly price assessment for steel cold-rolled coil import, ddp Northern Europe was €730-770 per tonne on February 4, up from €720-750 per tonne seven days prior.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-dipped galvanized coil import, ddp Northern Europe was €740-770 per tonne on Wednesday, widening downward from €750-770 per tonne seven days before.
Several sources reported a deal for Taiwanese HDG, 1mm, z120 done at €740 per tonne DDP.
Offers for other Asian HDG were reported at €750-770 per tonne DDP, CBAM inclusive.
For HDG imports, tight quotas and CBAM also remained the major stumbling blocks, limiting interest for new bookings.
Poland has appealed to the European Commission over Ukraine’s scrap metal export ban
Measures that have effectively halted Ukraine’s steel scrap exports to the European Union have prompted Poland to call on the European Commission to intervene. The Warsaw government argues that these actions are negatively affecting the competitiveness of the country’s steel industry.
The dispute has emerged at a time when the European Union continues to provide political, financial, and military support to Kyiv following Russia’s attacks on Ukraine. While Poland has been one of Ukraine’s strongest supporters during the war, recent issues involving agricultural products, transit transportation, and scrap trade have strained relations between the two countries.
As of 1 January 2026, Ukraine began applying a zero export quota on ferrous scrap. This decision has largely halted shipments of a key raw material, particularly used in electric arc furnaces (EAFs). Poland’s Ministry of Economic Development and Technology stated that the restrictions are disrupting supply chains and risk increasing production costs.
The ministry noted that around half of Poland’s steel production is carried out in scrap-based electric arc furnaces, and emphasized that Ukraine has long been one of the country’s most important scrap suppliers. Officials warned that potential raw material shortages could lead to higher costs, weakened competitiveness, production disruptions, and job losses.
The Ukrainian side argues that the restrictions were introduced to protect the domestic steel industry under wartime conditions. Polish industry representatives, however, claim that the policy lowers costs for Ukrainian producers while driving prices higher for companies within the EU.
Poland’s Ministry of Economic Development and Technology also stated that it had contacted Ukrainian authorities before the ban entered into force. A letter sent to Kyiv in December 2025 requested that the planned restrictions not be implemented, but the initiative did not yield any results.
Following the lack of response, Poland escalated the issue to the European Commission. The Warsaw government argues that the zero export quota effectively constitutes a ban and has called on Brussels to intervene urgently. The ministry added that the matter will remain on the agenda in future bilateral talks with Ukrainian officials.
ArcelorMittal: margins resilient but under pressure
Despite a decline in Ebitda in 2025, ArcelorMittal posted a sharp rise in net profit and defended the solidity of its model, driven by its strategic investments and the expected improvement in the European regulatory framework. However, an analysis of the published figures reveals cash generation constrained by high capex and rising debt, while the group is carrying out a wide-ranging review of its workforce, a third of which is in Luxembourg.
ArcelorMittal closed 2025 with sales of $61.35 billion, down 1.7% on the $62.44bn recorded in 2024 . The Group attributes this decline mainly to a 2.3% drop in average steel selling prices. In a context described as difficult, marked in particular by depressed international prices and tariff effects in North America, Ebitda came to 6.541bn, down 7.3% on the 7.05bn recorded in 2024.
The key indicator highlighted by the group is Ebitda per tonne, which reached $121 in 2025. According to the official communication, this level is “more than double” previous cycle lows. The published documents do not detail here the exact numerical reference to previous cycles; the comparison is therefore a qualitative assessment by management of the structural evolution of margins.
Net income, group share comes out at $3.15bn, compared with 1.34bn in 2024, with earnings per share of 4.13 dollars. On an adjusted basis, net profit came to $2.94bn, or 3.85 dollars per share. The increase in net profit, despite a fall in Ebitda, was mainly due to an improvement in financial and tax items. The press release states that the increase in adjusted net profit reflects in particular lower foreign exchange and other financial expenses, as well as a reduction in the tax charge, partially offset by lower Ebitda and higher interest costs.
Limited cash flow
Analysis by segment shows contrasting dynamics. In North America, annual Ebitda fell to $1.237bn, compared with 1.819bn a year earlier. The Group cites the impact of Section 232 tariffs and maintenance operations in Mexico. In Europe, on the other hand, Ebitda rose to 2.028 billion dollars, compared with 1.624bn in 2024, a trend attributed to a more favourable price-cost effect and operational improvements. In Brazil, Ebitda fell to $1.440bn from $1.803bn, against a backdrop of lower prices. The Mining segment recorded an improvement, with Ebitda of $1.105 billion compared with $1.033bn, driven by higher volumes and shipments, particularly in Liberia. Lastly, the Sustainable Solutions segment saw its Ebitda rise to $422m from $314m in 2024, benefiting from the ramp-up of renewables in India.
In terms of cash generation, ArcelorMittal says it will have generated $4.8bn in operating cash flow by 2025, including a working capital release of $0.5bn. Capital expenditure amounted to $4.3bn, including 1.1bn devoted to strategic projects. Free cash flow came to 0.4 billion dollars. The company highlighted an investable cash flow of $1.9bn over the 12 months, defined as operating cash flow less maintenance capex. This metric, which is specific to the group, differs from strict free cash flow and emphasises that available self-financing capacity after total investments remains limited in 2025.
Net debt reached $7.9bn at 31 December, compared with 5.1bn a year earlier. The Group explains this increase by growth investments and consolidation operations, in particular that of Calvert. Total liquidity was announced at $11.0bn at the end of the financial year. Moody’s and S&P have upgraded the Group’s 2025 credit rating to Baa2 and BBB respectively, with a stable outlook.
Dividend raised slightly
In terms of shareholder return policy, ArcelorMittal says it has returned $0.7bn in 2025. The board of directors will propose to the general meeting an increase in the basic annual dividend to 0.60 dollars per share, compared with $0.55 previously, with a quarterly payment. The company also claims to have reduced the number of diluted shares by 38% since September 2020.
The strategic narrative places a strong emphasis on Europe. The Group believes that the combination of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), fully implemented from 1 January 2026, and the new Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) tool should reduce imports by around 10 million tonnes and support domestic capacity utilisation. The European Parliament vote on the TRQ is expected in February 2026, for implementation by 1 July 2026 at the latest. The actual impact on margins will, however, depend on the regulatory timetable and market reactions; these future effects are at this stage a matter of expectations formulated by the company.
ArcelorMittal finally indicates that strategic projects already underway have contributed $0.7bn of Ebitda in 2025 and that investments underway could increase the potential for additional Ebitda to $1.6bn from 2026 and beyond. This estimate is based, according to the published documents, on assumptions of ramp-up and normalised market conditions.
All in all, the 2025 accounts reflect a company that is maintaining significant operating profitability in an unfavourable cyclical environment, but at the cost of a high level of investment and an increase in net debt. The improvement in net profit is due more to financial and tax factors than to an expansion of the operational core. The 2026 trajectory will largely depend on the materialisation of regulatory effects in Europe, the ramp-up of industrial projects and trends in steel and iron ore prices.
EU market seeing growing stability, limited momentum
European distributors are waiting for clearer signals of recovery but seeing deterioration pause, according to the latest market sentiment survey by industry association, EUROMETAL.
Steel distributors continue manage their inventories cautiously, but price expectations have consolidated at positive levels, suggesting that sentiment is gradually improving on the pricing side, even as demand fundamentals remain weak, Kallanish learns.
EUROMETAL’s survey is based on responses from 200 industry participants, who report that activity in January saw little development compared with the final months of 2025. Still, the responses also suggest that the near-term outlook is improving slightly, Kallanish understands. While confidence remains fragile, the January results suggest that pessimism has eased somewhat, with fewer respondents expecting a further deterioration.
Most distributors expect stock levels to remain broadly stable over the next three months, with no indication of active or aggressive restocking. Regarding prices, “the sentiment has now consolidated clearly above the neutral line,” EUROMETAL reports, as a growing share of distributors expect prices to hold firm or increase moderately in the coming months.
At the bottom line, EUROMETAL cautions that clear demand-driven recovery is not yet in sight, but also notes that positive price expectations stand out as a potentially important signal.