Sizable falls in output were reported by top producing countries Iran, Germany, South Korea, Japan and China in January compared with the same period the year prior. India and the US were the only top ten producing countries to show growth in crude steel production in January year on year, according to worldsteel on Tuesday February 25.
China and India: Diverging trends among leading producers
China, the world’s largest steel producer, had its estimated output fall by 5.6% to 81.9 million tonnes in January 2025 compared with January 2024. The decline is driven by weaker domestic demand amid ongoing property sector struggles, slowing infrastructure investment and intensified environmental regulations to curb carbon emissions.
Crude steel production in China has been on a downward trend since it reached the historical high of 1.07 billion tonnes in 2020.
The country’s steel industry is also facing trade protectionist measures and anti-dumping probes.
Rebar producers were reported to have shifted crude steel capacity to produce semi-finished products due to weakening demand and decreased profit in the fourth quarter of 2024, but member mills of the China Iron & Steel Association (CISA) reported higher steel production rates in the last 11 days of January following the country’s observance of the Lunar New Year holiday.
The world’s second largest crude steel producer India, in contrast, boosted production by 6.8% to 13.6 million tonnes, reflecting strong domestic demand and continued expansion in infrastructure projects and steel-making capacity.
That said, the south Asian country is currently facing coking coal supply issues.
Crude production declines among most major steel producers
Production drops were reported among most of the other top ten steel-producing nations, worldsteel said.
Iran recorded the most severe decline among major producers in January, down 24.1% year on year to 2.2 million tonnes.
Low steel prices within the Asia region, a prime destination for Iranian billet, has led to increased competition and reduced demand. The Middle Eastern country’s steel industry has also dealt with gas and electricity shortages over the winter as well as currency issues due to a complicated exchange-rate system.
Other major producers, such as Germany, South Korea and Japan also reported significant declines in crude steel production in January compared with the same month in 2024, according to worldsteel.
South Korea’s domestic steel sector has weakened due to an oversupply of low-priced Chinese steel products, leading to the introduction of tariffs in February, sources said.
Germany’s crude steel output has remained at a recession level (below 40 million tonnes) for three years amid weak demand, high energy costs and competitive imports, according to the country’s national steel industry association WV Stahl.
The association has called for urgent economic stimulus from the west European country’s newly elected conservative government, following the weak start to the year in terms of crude steel production.
The US, meanwhile, was the only other country apart from India that had crude steel production grow from January 2024 to January 2025, by 1.2% to 6.6 million tonnes.
Regional performance: Widespread contractions
Most regions reported declines in crude steel production for January 2025.
The only region to post growth was Russia & other CIS countries + Ukraine, where production rose by 1.4% to 7.0 million tonnes.
