Seven key things Fastmarkets learned during Irepas Fall 2024 meeting
More than 490 delegates from around the world gathered in Paris on September 15-17 to network and to participate in this key event for long steel producers.
Here are the seven main topics that were discussed at the conference:
Chinese dominance
China’s dominance in the international steel market has strengthened over the past year amid a drop in domestic demand and insufficient production cuts, and it was highly likely to continue in 2025.
Yeoh Wee Jin, secretary general of the South East Asia Iron & Steel Institute (SEAISI), described this year’s events in China as “a third tsunami” during a panel at the Irepas event. He expected the country’s steel exports to exceed 100 million tonnes this year, compared with 89 million tonnes in 2023.
Fall in iron ore prices
The decrease in steel production in China resulted in a fall in iron ore prices, as well as the accumulation of a significant stock of iron ore. Wilhelm Alff, chairman of the Irepas traders’ committee, said that iron ore stocks at Chinese ports currently totaled 149 million tonnes.
Fastmarkets’ daily index for iron ore 62% Fe fines, cfr Qingdao, has averaged $91.87 per tonne so far in September, compared with an average of $135.03 per tonne in January this year.
Meanwhile, scrap collection in Europe and the US has slowed down, Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers’ committee, said. This helped to support prices for the product despite delayed demand in Turkey.
The Middle Eastern country has switched to purchases of Chinese steel billet since the summer, when prices for the material became low enough to make production of rebar from billet more attractive than from scrap.
Fastmarkets’ daily index for steel scrap, HMS 1&2 (80:20 mix), North Europe origin, cfr Turkey, has averaged $363.36 per tonne so far in September, compared with $414.12 per tonne in January 2024.
Consequently, iron ore prices fell by almost 32% in the period under consideration, while those for scrap fell by 12.23%, making the blast furnace steel production route more profitable.
“Everybody wants to be a blast furnace-based steel producer for the next six months,” Alff said.
Shift in Turkey
Chinese steel prices remained attractive, including those for billet, so it was highly likely that Turkey would continue to meet its needs through billet imports, which would result in lower steel output in the country.
This situation could also exert pressure on scrap prices.
Trade defense
Turkey itself was limited in its long steel export opportunities at the moment, considering the imposition of trade defense measures in the US and in Canada, the almost-complete take-up of import quotas in the EU for the third quarter of 2024, with tonnages already sold for delivery in the fourth quarter, and with recent restrictions on the supply of steel products to Israel.
Some countries that formerly procured long steel from Turkey – such as Egypt, Algeria and states in the Gulf region – have become exporters themselves, according to the chairman of the Irepas producers’ committee, Murat Cebecioglu.
Yemen, plus a few other countries in the Middle East, and Latin America were currently the key destinations for Turkish long steel exports, he added.
Regional differences
Looking at the EU, Cebecioglu said that business has seemed to be at a standstill in the region for more than a year, and little or no improvement was expected in the next six months or so, a point on which other delegates at the event agreed.
Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries were currently in a slightly better position than those in other regions because their economies were moving in the right direction.
New projects in Saudi Arabia, for example, were creating demand in the region, with the construction and real estate sectors being the driving forces.
Yeoh said that ASEAN economies were also growing, albeit more slowly because of the generally unfavorable situation globally. He said that the construction sector was booming across the region, except in Thailand. Meanwhile, manufacturing was weakening, mainly due to soft external demand.
Earlier this year, he said that ASEAN steel demand was expected to reach 76.5 million tonnes in 2024, up from 73.5 million tonnes in 2023.
Overcapacity in Asia
Meanwhile, unsustainable overcapacity and de-greening were in prospect in Southeast Asia, with at least 104.4 million tonnes per year of new capacities expected to come onstream by 2030. These would push the region’s total capacity to 181.5 million tpy if they were all implemented, Yeoh said.
Around 83.6 million tpy of new capacity would be based on blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace technology, Yeoh said, while only 20.8 million tpy would be based on direct reduced iron (DRI) and electric-arc furnace (EAF) capacities, and this would lead to an “explosion” of greenhouse gas emissions by the region.
Decarbonization
At the same time, Europe’s imposition of its CBAM regulations and the global trend for decarbonization were other major topics at the Irepas event.
Since its start in October 2023, buyers of goods originating outside the EU must purchase certificates corresponding to the total volume of greenhouse gas emissions created by the production of the goods.
The costs of these certificates are calculated by the European Commission on a weekly basis, related to the average price of the closing EU Emission Trading System (ETS) carbon dioxide (CO2) allowance for each week.
By placing a fair price on the carbon emitted during the production of all carbon-intensive products entering Europe, European mills that currently must pay for carbon credits equivalent to their carbon emissions will be put on a more equitable basis with producers that operate in exporter countries that do not impose similar taxes.
Opinions were divided on the effects of the CBAM rules on the European market – and beyond it. Many delegates to the Irepas event felt that CBAM could help European mills to remain competitive when faced with economic challenges. Some sources, however, did not think that CBAM would either encourage global decarbonization or significantly rebalance global markets.
CBAM has put a cost on carbon, but it was not enough to counter the other factors which have resulted in a lack of balance in the global markets, these sources said.
These factors included foreign country subsidies, lower gas and electricity costs, lower labor costs, and fewer or no regulations in the construction sector, the sources added.
Global overcapacity was also expected to slow the decarbonization transition and to hamper innovation, Luciano Giua, economic and policy analyst at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD), said during the event.
Published by: Vlada Novokreshchenova, India-Inés Levy
Prices for Polish rebar inch lower amid poor trading
Fastmarkets’ weekly assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, cpt Poland — which has been falling since July 19 — reached 2,600-2,640 zloty ($669-679) per tonne on Friday, down by 10-20 zloty per tonne from 2,610-2,660 zloty per tonne on September 6.
A local producer offered rebar to many Polish steel traders at 2,600 zloty per tonne CPT, sources told Fastmarkets. This urged other mills in the country to adjust their offers to similar price levels.
Buyers estimated the tradeable market level at 2,600-2,640 zloty per tonne CPT, depending on tonnages.
Lower scrap prices on the Polish market were also among the reasons for the decreasing rebar prices, Fastmarkets understands.
Scrap prices in September contracts decreased by 90-110 zloty per tonne, a distributor source said.
“Consumers in Poland are aware of these developments, and when the local mills try to offer higher prices, they do not accept these offers,” the source added. “No one is buying huge volumes now due to the decreasing rebar prices.”
Competitive imports also put additional pressure on domestic prices.
German material was heard offered to Poland at €610-615 ($673-679) per tonne CPT. For deliveries close to the border with Germany, the price could drop to €605 per tonne CPT, sources told Fastmarkets.
Offers for November-delivery rebar from Ukraine were heard recently at €570 per tonne DAP border for material with 10-32 mm diameter, which nets back to €600 per tonne CPT.
According to a second distributor source, slow demand, combined with strong competition from imports, will continue to put downward pressure on Polish rebar prices.
Italian rebar producers seek increases
Italian rebar producers are looking to implement price increases of €20-30/tonne ($22.1-33.2) in an effort to halt the price decline and regain some lost margins. Increased costs of production, especially in terms of energy, have put significant pressure on their financials.
According to buyers who spoke to Kallanish, the outlook for the end of the year remains pessimistic, with ongoing low downstream orders and reduced consumption. Buyers have no confidence that the latest hike attempt will be sustained. The distribution sector is adopting a cautious approach. Sources indicate prices for domestic rebar have remained steady in comparison to last month, but a price decline is expected.
Transaction values in the domestic market last week ranged from €290-300/t base ex-works, or €550-560/t ex-works effective. This includes an average of €260/t for additional size extras. Domestic mesh is at around €400/t, excluding transportation costs.
There is an additional charge of €300/t for size extras. Mills are requesting €320-330/t ex-works for rebar. Some steelmakers temporarily halted sales last week due to uncertainty surrounding pricing decisions. The market continues to underperform, with buyers reporting an influx of much cheaper long products from Turkey.
Natalia Capra France
Albania’s Kurum suspends steel output amid financial problems
Albanian International’s Elbasan-based rebar steelworks Kurum has stopped steel production due to financial tension caused by the drop in international steel prices, Kallanish notes.
“Over the past two years, Kurum International has experienced severe complications due to the international energy recession and deteriorating economic conditions, interrupting production at times,” the company says. “The situation became extremely complicated in the second half of 2023 and even more so in 2024 as metallurgy faced deteriorating conditions due to reduced capital demand, high interest rates, inflation and complications in securing primary materials and power.”
Kurum has dismissed local media reports of layoffs, saying it has not implemented mass layoffs for administrative staff. It is however negotiating with the union to offer a number of these staff layoff options with back pay and time served.
According to the company, it is now engaged in substantial repairs to modernise industrial lines and restore competitiveness, to resume production as soon as possible. “The suspension of steel production has nothing to do with media reports of the company’s joining in the export of hazardous waste,” it adds.
Last week, Albanian media outlet Reporter.al reported that Durres prosecutors had identified Kurum International as the source of 816 tonnes of hazardous waste on two Maersk container ships stopped from docking in Thailand.
Kurum International’s Elbasan steelworks comprises one electric arc furnace meltshop with 510,000 tonnes/year liquid steel capacity and three rebar mills with a combined 700,000 t/y capacity. The plant also has a scrap processing unit for which it sources material from the domestic market, as well as Montenegro, Macedonia, Serbia and Kosovo.
The firm sells half of its products domestically – including merchant billet – and exports the balance. It claims to supply 66% of Albania’s rebar requirement.
The company is fully owned by Turkish businesswoman Hatice Melek Kurum.
Svetoslav Abrossimov Bulgaria
Polish steel rebar prices inch downward on low demand, oversupply
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, cpt Poland, was 2,680-2,730 zloty ($674-686) per tonne on Friday, widening downward by 20 zloty per tonne from 2,700-2,730 zloty per tonne the previous week.
Polish mills were heard to be hoping to achieve 2,750 zloty per tonne CPT, but lower offers at 2,700 zloty per tonne CPT were available in the market this week, sources told Fastmarkets.
Market participants estimated the tradeable market price at 2,680-2,730 zloty per tonne CPT.
According to some sources, even lower prices at 2,600-2,650 zloty per tonne could be achieved for large volumes exceeding 1,000 tonnes. But these were not included in this week’s assessment because they were not in line with Fastmarkets’ methodology.
“Demand [in Poland] is currently… moderate, but there is oversupply in the market, and that is why the prices are going down,” a distributor source told Fastmarkets.
According to a second distributor source, only the cut-and-bend sector in Poland was performing well at the moment, but demand in general remained low.
A producer source agreed that demand for rebar in the Polish market remained comparatively low, with the summer holiday period also having an effect.
“No significant changes are expected in August,” the producer source added.
In terms of any future developments in Polish rebar prices, the first distributor source said that, in summer, even significant price decreases would not revive the market.
“I am afraid that in September, when mills come back to the market, and demand is still not so good, there could be more price decreases,” the first distributor source said.
The same source added that more significant funding from the EU for infrastructure projects, which could eventually support the local demand for rebar, would come no earlier than next year.
In terms of imports, offers of rebar from Germany were heard at €625-635 ($675-686) per tonne CPT.
Ukrainian material was offered to Poland at €570-580 per tonne DAP border, sources told Fastmarkets.
Kametstal to offer new rebar grade to Polish market
Kametstal, a subsidiary of Ukrainian steel producer Metinvest, has received international compliance certificate No. 020-UWB-3057/W, which will allow it to supply B500B rebar in diameters of 8-32mm to the Polish market, the company has announced. The certificate will be valid until 2028.
This means that Kametstal will be able to expand its product portfolio in Poland.
According to Fastmarkets’ sources, the first volumes of this material have already been traded in the Polish market.
EU long steel market remains mostly steady even as mills announce price increase
The Northwest European market for rebar and medium sections remained mostly steady in the week ended July 10 even as some mills raised offers . Some sources said that demand has improved and is expected to be better in the summer.
“Demand has improved,” another distributor source said. “Some companies will continue in summer and demand is expected to be better this summer. Mills have announced an increase of 10 euros for beams and merchant bars.”
Whether the higher offers will be accepted by buyers remains to be seen, sources said.
“Market is quiet due to summer holidays,” another distributor source said. “There is not much action, and no buying at the moment.”
Platts assessed the price of Northwest European rebar stable on the week at Eur615/mt ex-works.
Tradable values were heard at Eur615/mt ex-works Benelux.
Meanwhile, Platts assessed the price of European medium sections stable on the week at Eur750/mt delivered Benelux.
Workable levels were reported at Eur740-770/mt delivered Benelux.
Devbrat Saha
Badische Stahlwerke tests flexible use of hydrogen in EAFs
Badische Stahlwerke (BSW) has launched a research project on the development of a new burner technology in electric arc furnace mills, Kallanish hears from the German rebar maker.
The burners used today for heating of the ladles are not enabled for operation with hydrogen, BSW explains. Those developed and tested in the project will be working on hydrogen, or, alternatively, ammonia. The system will be able to flexibly mix hydrogen and ammonia with natural gas, which will be used as a bridge agent until sufficient hydrogen or ammonia are available.
Project partners are associated engineering company Badische Stahl Engineering GmbH (BSE) and university RWTH Aachen. The project will run over three years, and will be subsidised by Germany’s economy and climate protection ministry to the tune of €2.3 million ($2.5m).
“The project goes beyond the reduction of CO2 emissions in ladle heating. It might be extended over the entire electric arc mill, including the meltshop,” says Sebastian Baumgartner, managing director of BSE. In that case, the technology could be marketed internationally through BSE, he notes.
BSW has set itself the target of becoming climate-neutral by 2045.
Christian Koehl Germany
LME rebar contracts sees increases on week, near-term contango persists
Volumes traded for the scrap futures contract on the London Metal Exchange, which settle basis Platts assessments, declined slightly on week as the mills concluded July shipment bookings, and activity in the physical market slowed down.
Spot prices for physical imports of premium heavy melting scrap 1/2 (80:20) were largely rangebound and were assessed at $390/mt CFR July 4, down 25 cents/mt on the week.
The near-term structure over the July-October portion of the forward curve was largely flat on July 4, indicating expectations that spot prices in the physical market would remain firm in the near term.
| Contract month | Platts assessed LME scrap forward curve June 27 ($/mt) | Platts assessed LME scrap forward curve July 4 ($/mt) | Change on week ($/mt) |
| July | 388 | 389.5 | 1.50 |
| August | 385.5 | 390.25 | 4.75 |
| September | 386.5 | 389 | 2.50 |
| October | 390 |
Weekly LME scrap futures trading volumes at 92,770 mt July 4, decreasing from 348,500 mt recorded in June 27 as activity in the physical market slowed down.
Rebar futures contracts on the London Metal Exchange increased in volumes traded despite continued weak demand in the physical market for exports and sustained buyside pressure.
| Contract month | Platts assessed LME rebar forward curve June 27 ($/mt) | Platts assessed LME rebar forward curve July 4 ($/mt) | Change on week ($/mt) |
| July | 581.5 | 583.5 | 2.00 |
| August | 582.5 | 590.25 | 7.75 |
| September | 587.5 | 592.25 | 4.75 |
| October | 594.5 |
The July-October portion of the forward curve for Turkey rebar futures on the London Metal Exchange remained in contango, indicating traders expected Turkish rebar prices in the physical market could follow an upward trend in the near term.
Turkish rebar export prices increased on July 4, as the Turkish mills kept offers firm despite limited export demand. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Turkish exported rebar at $577.50/mt FOB on July 4, up $2.50mt from July 3.
Platts assessed the daily outright spread between Turkish export rebar and import scrap prices at $187.50/mt July 4, well below the target $200/mt scrap-rebar conversion spread.
Weekly LME rebar futures trading volumes in the week to July 4 increased to 25,960 mt, up 8,360 mt from 17,600 mt recorded in the week to June 27.
Semra Ugur
IREPAS in Berlin : Weak demand, great uncertainty and aggressive Asian exports
The 90th meeting of IREPAS (the International Rebar Exporters and Producers Association) was held in Berlin on April 28-30 in conjunction with the SteelOrbis Spring’24 Conference.
There were 104 representatives from 41 different producers among the 445 registered delegates from a total of 57 different countries. There were also 91 registrations representing 52 different raw material suppliers.
At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, emphasized that demand in the global long steel products market continues to lag behind supply. He added that the situation was getting worse because of China’s aggressive export policy and that Chinese exporters would continue to be aggressive, which of course would drive other Asian exporters to be aggressive also.
The IREPAS chairman said the situation in the global long steel products market is deteriorating, adding that there is huge uncertainty on what the next couple of quarters will bring for the global long products market, where it seems the situation will be extremely difficult.
On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.
Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: General market mood hopeful for improvement
Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, summarized the committee meeting findings regarding the general situation in the global steel and raw material markets, noting that the markets have been struggling this year compared to the past few years amid the worsening of economies due to high inflation and interest rates. However, he stated that the general mood is hopeful for a return to something slightly more forward-looking and optimistic.
Regarding Western countries, he stated that high interest rates and inflation have been putting pressure on scrap generation in the US and the EU, and added that the interest rates in the EU are expected to be cut during the spring. With the anticipated increase in scrap demand due to electric arc furnace investments especially in the US, Canada and Europe, Mr. Björkman noted that scrap flows will change significantly in the next 10 years, regionalizing scrap generation where scrap demand is high. In addition, he stated that steel producers have started to look for alternatives to scrap like pig iron, HBI and DRI to cover their needs for raw material. Indicating that scrap generation in Europe is down by 15-50 percent depending on the part of the region, Björkman said that, with the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), European scrap suppliers will try to keep scrap volumes within the regional market, reducing scrap exports from the region especially to Turkey, which operates mostly with electric arc furnaces and has significant demand for scrap.
Looking at China, noting that the country’s economy was expected to rebound after the Chinese New Year holiday but that these expectations did not materialize, he stated that China’s economy is going through a period of normalization. Meanwhile, pointing out that before the recent rebound iron ore prices had fallen to $100/mt CFR in the first quarter this year from the higher-than-expected level last year of $120/mt CFR, he said that the factors contributing to the price drop included high iron ore inventories at Chinese ports, slow demand and lower steel production. He concluded by saying that the market in China is adjusting to the lack of recovery of demand after the Chinese New Year holiday, adding that he expects iron ore prices to remain at quite high levels.
Traders at IREPAS: Global demand to be supplied locally, market conditions lead to regionalization
F. D. Baysal, the chairman of the traders committee, stated that there is demand globally but that it will be supplied locally, adding that ongoing trade tensions, global conflicts and political instability have changed trade routes, resulting in regionalization.
Looking at the other factors that lead to regionalization, Mr. Baysal expressed the view that the EU’s safeguard measures will be extended for another two years and that its quota volume adjustment will be minimal if any. Regarding the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, he stated that it will put pressure on other countries, especially on blast furnace-based producers.
Remarking that Turkey’s export markets have been limited due to the US safeguard measures, the EU quota restrictions and the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the chairman of the traders committee stated that there are still some export opportunities for the country, including Syria, Iraq, eastern Europe, Africa and possibly Yemen. In addition, noting that the shipping crisis in the Red Sea has affected freight rates and container shipments a lot more than bulk shipments, shipments had to be shifted from containers to bulk, leading to additional costs.
Looking at China, Baysal said that the low steel demand in the country amid cancelled infrastructure projects has resulted in an increase in the country’s exports, with China dominating the global market with its lower prices and higher quality of steel, leading the strong competition. He also cited the Chinese Metallurgical Industry Institute’s prediction for a 1.7 percent drop in China’s steel demand in 2024, after a 3.3 percent decline in 2023, while further noting that China’s steel export volume increased by 14 percent year on year in the first quarter, though the value of its steel exports during this period was down by 20 percent year on year.
Producers at IREPAS: Low demand and Chinese exports weigh heavily on global steel market
Murat Cebecioğlu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, shared with participants the conclusions reached by producers regarding the current situation in the markets. He said that the GCC region is more optimistic in terms of business given the big infrastructure projects in the pipeline there, while market conditions in Egypt are getting better and better as the country’s currency issue has mostly been resolved, though the Suez Canal crisis remains a challenge. In some EU markets, the economy is picking up and inflation seems to be under control, while in others demand still remains quite low.
Commenting on the situation in China, the hot topic at the conference, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that Chinese exports will definitely affect the global market negatively and will reach high levels as they did back in 2015. However, this time the number of export markets is limited because of protectionism and Chinese exports will be more problematic in terms of competition. He went on to say that, apart from China, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam are also exporting heavily and competing with each other. This will affect other suppliers and, as one of the biggest long steel exporters, Turkey is already feeling the effects, the chairman of the producers committee noted. Chinese exports are also taking a toll on the EU market, which is also struggling with very low demand especially in the northern part of the region.
Other exporters to the EU have to deal with quota measures as well as the Chinese competition. Cebecioğlu said the EU will most probably extend its quotas for another two years and, with new suppliers such as the GCC and North Africa, things will be tough this year before picking up and getting better next year.
Responding to a question regarding how Turkish mills managed to increase production in the first quarter of the current year, the committee chairman said that, in terms of sales, the first quarter this year was much better than the corresponding period last year. Turkish mills were able to sell considerable amounts to the EU and, with the quotas opening up, they had a window for exports. Commenting on the reconstruction works in Turkey’s southern region which was devastated by earthquakes last year, Cebecioğlu stated, “Construction activity has already started in the region, and it is mainly the mills in the region that are benefitting from all this. Since export activity is very low, this gives these mills a little bit of a break, and also funding should not be a problem as these projects are being financed by the government.”
Steel rebar, wire rod prices stable in Poland amid lack of activity
Rebar
The most recent rebar offers from three local producers were heard at 2,660-2,680 zloty ($656-661) per tonne CPT (about 2,630-2,650 zloty per tonne ex-works), while estimates of workable prices were in the range of 2,600-2,650 zloty per tonne ex-works, depending on the tonnage.
No fresh bookings had been heard by the time of publication.
Consequently, Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, exw Poland, was 2,600-2,650 zloty per tonne on August 11, stable week on week.
Wire rod
Recent offers from local steelmakers of low-carbon, drawing-quality wire rod were reported at 2,800-2,900 zloty per tonne CPT, unchanged since late July, but the upper end of that range was considered unworkable by most customers.
Workable prices were estimated to be around 2,750 zloty per tonne CPT, with some deals from a key producer heard at this price.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel wire rod (drawing quality), domestic, delivered Poland, was 2,750-2,800 zloty per tonne on August 11, unchanged over the past month.
Offers of wire rod imports into Poland were also limited in the assessment week, with European mills out of the market for maintenance work or other stoppages.
Ukraine-origin mesh-quality wire rod was heard to be available at €600-610 ($660-671) per tonne CPT, depending on the supplier.
Published by: Vlada Novokreshchenova