
EU Steel Distribution faces continued weak demand, with upward shift in price expectations
The EU steel and metals distribution sector remains cautious as we approach the end of 2024.
While current activity levels remain stable, future activity is expected to weaken. Distributors are maintaining a conservative approach to inventory, aligning stock levels with anticipated market softness. However, there’s a notable shift in price expectations, with some respondents foreseeing stabilization or slight increases, suggesting that price pressures might ease as the market recalibrates.
Overall, while the industry braces for subdued demand, there is a glimmer of potential price resilience, which could provide stability as distributors navigate this challenging period.
Assessment of Current Activity
Responses are consistent with previous months, possibly reflecting a stabilization or slight dip in current activity levels. The general trend remains below the neutral line, suggesting that the sector is still operating at a cautious activity level, with no significant improvement.
Future Activity Forecast
Downward trend continues: October responses show a continuation of the pessimistic outlook for future activity. Most responses are positioned below the neutral line, following the downward trend observed in recent months.
Weak expectations for the coming months: The future activity sentiment indicates an expected decrease as we move toward the end of 2024. This sustained downward trend suggests that distributors anticipate a prolonged period of weak demand.
Stock Position Forecast
Steady or slight decrease: Stock positions for October remain stable, with only slight variations from previous months, indicating a conservative approach to stock management.
No aggressive restocking: Respondents show no intentions of significantly increasing stock levels, reflecting a focus on maintaining or slightly reducing inventories in anticipation of lower demand. This pattern underscores a cautious stance, as distributors are reluctant to commit to higher stock levels amid uncertain market conditions.
Price Development Expectations
Shift in price sentiment: October’s responses indicate an upward shift in price expectations, with answers positioned closer to the neutral line and slightly above it.
Potential stabilization or increase: Unlike previous months, where sentiment leaned toward declining prices, October responses show a more balanced or slightly positive outlook on price developments, possibly due to market adjustments or expectations of supply limitations. This change may reflect a belief that prices could stabilize or increase slightly as distributors adapt to market realities and adjust supply strategies accordingly.
This analysis is based on the EUROMETAL Sentiment Survey, reflecting the opinions of 251 participants. Interested in our Sentiment Tool? Contact us.

European Commission study on the potential extension of the scope of the CBAM to downstream products
European Commission Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union (TAXUD) is conducting a Study on a potential CBAM scope extension to downstream products.
The objective of this study is to assess the feasibility of extending the scope of the CBAM to products further down the value chain (downstream products) of the goods that are currently listed in Annex I of the CBAM Regulation (upstream CBAM basic goods).
The purpose of including downstream products is to mitigate the risk of carbon leakage of upstream CBAM basic goods as well as the downstream products.
As part of the study, they are carrying out a stakeholder survey. The aim of this survey is to gather both evidence and the views of relevant stakeholders on the major concerns, areas of consensus or points of contention as regards a CBAM scope extension to downstream products.
Particularly, input is sought on the administrative burden and costs importers of downstream products may face in complying with the CBAM if the scope were to be extended to downstream products.
The survey will be open from today until October 25th, 2024.
You can find the link to the survey here: CBAMScopeDownstream2024
Password: CB4M_d0wnstream
More background information n the objectives of the study can be found in the introductory section of the survey.

Service centres, Turkey most pessimistic, says EUROMETAL survey
Flat steel service centres gave the most pessimistic view of market conditions in European steel distributors association EUROMETAL’s maiden market sentiment survey published in late July, Kallanish notes.
A total of 29 respondents in this customer segment said their assessment of current activity is slightly negative, as is their view of activity in the next quarter and their view of their stock position in the next quarter. Their expectation for prices in the next quarter is however to remain flat.
In the steel trading segment, 50 respondents indicated their assessment of current activity is slightly negative. However, their view of activity in the next quarter is slightly positive, with their view of their stock position being neutral. Their expectation for prices in the next quarter is to decline slightly.
In the stockholding distribution segment, 27 respondents said current activity is slightly negative, with the other three survey question responses coming back as neutral.
Split by customer region, almost all respondents said expectation for prices in the next quarter is to remain flat. However, in Iberia, respondents indicated a slight increase, despite being slightly negative in the other three survey question responses.
In Turkey, respondents foresaw a slight decline in prices. All regions except the Visegrad, UK + Ireland and the Balkans foresaw a slight decline in activity in the next quarter.
Turkish respondents were the most negative across the four survey questions, providing slightly negative responses for all of them.
By responder activity, only the energy and tube sectors foresaw a slight increase in activity in the next quarter. All sectors had flat price expectations for the next quarter.
Once a month, EUROMETAL will publish a summary of the survey responses. The report will present the combined opinions and previous data, aiding the market in forming a comprehensive view of trends, the association says.
“This first report conducted in July already demonstrates very different feelings in our industrial sectors (Stockholding, Flat SSC and Trading),” says the association’s director general, Ricardo Silva. The sentiment rating is split into positive/slightly positive/neutral/slightly negative/negative.
EUROMETAL divided the replies into three sets – “customer sector”, meaning association member type; “customer region”; and “responder activity”, referring to the end-use sector served.
Adam Smith Poland , Christian Koehl Germany

EUROMETAL members expect stable steel prices in 4Q
Steel distributors’ association EUROMETAL’s inaugural market sentiment survey shows that members expect fourth-quarter steel prices to remain generally stable, despite below-average activity in the third quarter.
Respondents across different European markets that are exposed to different end-use sectors all agreed that current market activity is below average. Most major markets expect final-quarter activity to remain below average, but the outlook for the UK and Ireland, the Balkans and the Visegrad region is slightly more optimistic, with average or stable activity anticipated. Yet prices in all geographical markets are forecast as stable, except for Iberia, where respondents see higher prices in the fourth quarter.
Most major end-use sectors are likely to remain subdued, with forecasts for continued below-average activity in the automotive, construction, packaging, machinery and white goods segments. Respondents expect activity to tick up to above-average in the tubes and energy sectors from below average at present.
Stock levels going into the fourth quarter appear to be mostly stable, although flat steel service centres report below-average inventories. Perceptions about stocks in Italy, Iberia, the Nordics and Turkey are also down. Stocks in the white goods, automotive and packaging sectors are perceived as being below average and average in all other end-user segments.
By Lora Stoyanova

EUROMETAL Sentiment Tool is now operational
EUROMETAL began collecting the date of its first survey.
As reported about a month ago, EUROMETAL is launching the new market sentiment tool for its members and stakeholders.
Operators in the steel business are always keen to understand the general perception of the market regarding activity, stocks, and prices.
To meet this need, EUROMETAL introduced a new fully compliance tool to gather insights from members and subscribers on current market trends. This user-friendly tool will allow industry participants to share their opinions.
Once a month, EUROMETAL will publish a summary of the responses. The report (per sector and geographical area) will present the combined opinions and previous data, aiding the market in forming a comprehensive view of trends.
How to participate?
In a first phase, the Sentiment Tool was open to EUROMETAL members and subscribers.
An email entitled EUROMETAL Steel Distribution Market Sentiment Survey was sent today via info@eurometal-survey.net.
In the first phase, you will be asked to validate your contact, sector and market. Participation will only take a few seconds. Your participation is secret and will not be shared in any way.
Check your email and participate in this opinion poll.