EU Steel Distribution: cautious optimism amid stable market conditions as 2024 ends
The European Steel Distribution sector remains cautious and prepares for the challenges of early 2025.
The EUROMETAL Sentiment Survey for December 2024 reveals a largely neutral to mildly optimistic market sentiment, with respondents expecting stable stock levels, steady current activity, and modest improvements in future activity and prices. This suggests the steel and metals distribution sector is ending the year on a positive yet stable note, with confidence in the market’s trajectory heading into 2025.
Assessment of Current Activity
Responses for December 2024 reflect a continuation of trends observed in previous months, with activity levels remaining below the neutral line. This suggests that the sector continues to operate cautiously, with no signs of significant improvement.
However, compared to October and November, responses indicate a slight stabilization, suggesting that the current activity level has settled into a consistent, albeit subdued, pattern.
Future Activity Forecast
The sentiment for December 2024 is above the neutral line, suggesting cautious optimism for the next quarter.
In contrast to the months of August, September and October, where responses dipped below neutral, indicating some concerns or market uncertainties, December reflects greater confidence in upcoming activity.
Bubble size in December is moderate, suggesting a mix of opinions, but with the majority leaning toward a positive outlook.
Stock Position Forecast
Stock position responses for December show little change, reflecting a continued conservative inventory approach. Respondents indicate no significant plans for aggressive restocking, preferring to align stock levels with lower demand expectations. This reflects distributors’ cautious stance as they enter 2025 amid uncertain market conditions.
Price Development Expectations
December 2024 exhibits a clear upward tilt above neutrality, signaling expectations for moderate price increases in the coming months. The upward trajectory in December sentiment could reflect improving market conditions, such as stronger demand, reduced supply chain pressures, or other positive economic signals.
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This analysis is based on the EUROMETAL Sentiment Survey, reflecting the opinions of 210 participants for December 2024. Interested in our Sentiment Tool? Contact us.
EUROMETAL members expect stable steel prices in 4Q
Steel distributors’ association EUROMETAL’s inaugural market sentiment survey shows that members expect fourth-quarter steel prices to remain generally stable, despite below-average activity in the third quarter.
Respondents across different European markets that are exposed to different end-use sectors all agreed that current market activity is below average. Most major markets expect final-quarter activity to remain below average, but the outlook for the UK and Ireland, the Balkans and the Visegrad region is slightly more optimistic, with average or stable activity anticipated. Yet prices in all geographical markets are forecast as stable, except for Iberia, where respondents see higher prices in the fourth quarter.
Most major end-use sectors are likely to remain subdued, with forecasts for continued below-average activity in the automotive, construction, packaging, machinery and white goods segments. Respondents expect activity to tick up to above-average in the tubes and energy sectors from below average at present.
Stock levels going into the fourth quarter appear to be mostly stable, although flat steel service centres report below-average inventories. Perceptions about stocks in Italy, Iberia, the Nordics and Turkey are also down. Stocks in the white goods, automotive and packaging sectors are perceived as being below average and average in all other end-user segments.
By Lora Stoyanova
