EUROMETAL President’s reactions after Steel Dialogue
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hosted today the Strategic Dialogue on Steel, bringing together key industry leaders to address the future of Europe’s steel sector. EUROMETAL President Alexander M. Julius participated in the discussions, ensuring the voice of steel distributors and service centers was heard on critical industry challenges.
EUROMETAL emphasized that fair competition remains crucial for the steelmaking sector. However, considering the 7.4 million people employed in the manufacturing of steel and metal-based products in the EU, it is equally important to create a level playing field for this sector. This can be achieved by extending protective measures to semi-finished and finished products, which currently enter the EU without any barriers. Given Europe’s position between the USA and China, supporting EU distribution, processing, and manufacturing is even more essential to foster innovation and establish a foundation for sustainable industrial activities.
In a subsequent discussion with European Commissioners, EUROMETAL also reiterated its desire to actively participate in a CBAM working group. This initiative would help the European Commission ensure that regulations are feasible for EU declarants, thereby maintaining a reliable service for the EU steel-using industry.
EC to weaken carmakers’ CO2 target compliance rules
The European Commission will concede flexibilities to carmakers following an “intense” second meeting on Monday, as part of its strategic dialogue with the automotive industry.
EC president Ursula von der Leyen said she will propose a focused amendment to the CO2 Standards regulation this month. Instead of annual compliance, carmakers will have a three-year compliance window to meet the targets without facing penalties.
This year, the target for new cars sold in the EU is 93.6 grams of CO2 per kilometre. From 2030 until 2034, the target is 49.5 gCO2/km. From 2035 onwards, the plan is to sell only zero-emission vehicles.
“The targets stay the same. They have to fulfil the targets, but it means more breathing space for industry. It means also more clarity and without changing the agreed targets,” she explains. “I’m sure that such a targeted amendment could be agreed swiftly with the European Parliament and the Council; because, of course, it only makes sense if agreed quickly.”
Von der Leyen claims the decision strikes a balance between fairness for “first movers – those who did their homework successfully” and pragmatism and technology neutrality for stakeholders facing “difficult times.”
The measure, which still needs to be passed by EU governments and lawmakers, is an “unprecedented gift” to Europe’s car industry, comments campaign group T&E.
“Weakening the EU clean car rules rewards laggards and does little for Europe’s car industry except to leave it further behind China on electric vehicles,” adds Willliam Todts, executive director of T&E and participant in the EU automotive dialogue. “The EU risks creating a very damaging uncertainty about the electric vehicle transition in Europe.”
Chris Heron, secretary general at trade body E-Mobility Europe, estimates the new proposal will risk around 500,000 fewer electric cars entering the EU market in 2025, as targets won’t need to be met in 2025 and 2026.
“That uncertainty is bad news for investors in EU charging infrastructure, battery production, and e-mobility overall,” he says, pointing out the emergence of “big” legal questions. “Changing the rules midway through 2025 is unfair for the automakers that worked to comply with the law in good faith.”
The EC will present its Automotive Action Plan on Wednesday, which von der Leyen said will also focus on prioritising innovation through a push focused primarily on autonomous driving and battery manufacturing.
“We know that global competition is fierce, so we have to act big and have to be big,” she adds. “We will set up and support an industry alliance. Companies will be able to pool resources. They will develop shared software, chips and autonomous driving technology.”
To support the battery industry, the EC intends to gradually introduce European content requirements for cells and components, and continue cutting red tape.
European HRC steel producers still bullish despite subdued real demand
In the Benelux area, transactions for HRC lots of 1,000 tonnes were reported at €630 ($654) per tonne ex-works for April-May delivery.
In Germany, deals were reported at €620-630 per tonne ex-works.
Buyers’ estimates of tradeable values for HRC across Northern Europe were heard at similar levels of €620-630 per tonne ex-works on Monday.
Market sources noted that the uptrend was expected to persist in the coming weeks, despite a lack of real demand.
“Customers are complaining [about HRC price increases] but they are still ordering. New safeguards are coming [from the EU authorities], so very few buyers dare to book imported coil,” a supplier in the region said.
“It is clear that if you don’t book [HRC] today, tomorrow you’ll have to pay more,” a buyer source in Germany said.
As a result, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, at €627.92 per tonne on Monday, up by €1.09 per tonne from €626.83 per tonne on Friday.
The Northern European index was up by €9.17 per tonne week on week and by €36.67 per tonne month on month.
Meanwhile, in Southern Europe, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, was calculated at €616.25 per tonne on Monday, up by €3.75 per tonne from €612.50 per tonne on Friday.
The index was up by €6.25 per tonne week on week and up by €28.75 per tonne month on month.
In Italy, buyers’ estimates of achievable prices were reported within the range of €600 to €625 per tonne ex-works on March 3. Some sources, however, pointed out that the lower end of that range was no longer achievable.
European suppliers were offering May-delivery HRC to Italy at €660 per tonne delivered.
An Italian mill was hoping for €640-660 per tonne delivered for April-May delivery HRC, trade sources said. Trading activity has improved recently, but was “far from booming,” they added.
“Everyone buys hand-to-mouth. There is too much uncertainty around safeguards, and real demand is still not supportive of huge price rises,” a buyer in Italy said.
“Real demand for steel remains subdued, but apparent demand has picked up due to the situation with [the safeguards review on] imports, and expectations of a continued uptrend,” a second buyer in Italy said. “The market [for HRC] is very speculative now.”
Regarding imports, offers to the European market were still limited.
Asia-origin coil with April-May shipment was offered to Italy at €560-570 per tonne CFR.
Turkish suppliers were offering coil at €590-600 per tonne CFR, including anti-dumping duty/
More clarity on the situation regarding imports was expected by the end of March, when the current review of the European Commission’s steel safeguards was expected to be completed.
Pending tariffs will boost US car prices, ‘fortify’ US industrial base
The ultimate impact “all depends on the extent to which those tariffs are expected to remain in place, or possibly be adjusted, in the renegotiation of the USMCA [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement],” which comes up for renewal in the first quarter of 2026, Rakoto told Fastmarkets in an interview.
“We know that, for example, the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminium from the first Trump administration remained in force during the Biden administration. As these new [pending] tariff measures apply for a durable period of time, we can expect positive effects in the long term,” the consultant said.
To the extent that the tariffs can impact consumer purchasing activity, they can also impact demand for key steel product sectors, such as cold-rolled coil, galvanized sheet and special bar-quality steel, according to industry analysts and market participants.
“The challenge [for US automakers] will be navigating the transition to those tariffs, and the scope of freedom for action that automakers and their suppliers have to maneuver around that or work with it,” Rakoto said. “During that period of time, we might see some short-term issues and price increases.”
“We know that Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminium, if applied, will result in higher prices for automobiles because over 60% of the weight of the car is in steel or aluminium,” the consultant said. “So if you tax the aluminium and steel coming from just Canada and Mexico, that can create a price increase of 5-8% per vehicle, if tariffs costs are passed through to the consumer.”
Rakoto noted that “some of the higher cost can be avoided by reshoring production and materials within the US, but we know US production of steel and aluminium is not sufficient to meet all the needs of US automakers.”
“The question is, who is going to apply that cost to the final price of vehicles and who is going to absorb it? Because we know that suppliers say they might look into ways to absorb the extra cost; others say they’re going to pass this through,” Rakoto said. “So tier one suppliers will pass it through to OEMs [original equipment manufacturers] and the OEMs to the consumer. So, there’s that risk [that tariffs can push up car prices],” the consultant said.
Shifts in currency exchange rates may also be a factor.
“Currency has always played a role for automakers. In some years we’ve seen currency issues driving profitability at some automakers. Tariffs can also drive changes in currencies,” Rakoto said.
In the North American market, materials and parts go back and forth across the border, and that will create pressure to absorb the tariff within the supply chain, the consultant said.
“About 80% of aluminum for US automakers comes from Canada, so whoever is buying the aluminum in the US is going to pay that tariff. Therefore, it depends on the vehicle and how much of it is imported.”
The cross-border activity “means the impact of a 25% tariff has more of an impact, and thus the advantage of a domestically produced product or part is usually short lived,” Rakoto said. “The local products will tend to increase their price as well; not to same level of 25%, but we know there’s going to be some price correction effect.”
Additionally, potential reciprocal tariffs — expected to go into place on April 2 — will cover not just steel and aluminium, but also consumer goods as well, Rakoto explained.
Finally, President Donald Trump has also said he intends to impose a potential 25% tariff on imported automobiles.
“We will know more about that on April 2. We don’t have much detail so far,” the consultant said.
Rakoto said he did not expect the automobile tax to be added to the reciprocal tax that the US might impose, given the automobile tax itself is likely to be much higher than expected reciprocal tariff charges.
If there is a price increase on US automobiles as a result of the tariffs, “of course it will mean less consumer demand for new cars,” the consultant said
Automakers might try rebates or other financing arrangements to help reduce the overall cost of the car, but with current high interest rates, it’s likely that the market will slow down in total production from the previous year, he said.
“We know that President Trump likes to use tariffs as a negotiation tool, so we can hope and expect that a lot of those tariffs will not come into effect,” Rakoto said.
Initially there will be a delay in reshoring production into the US, the consultant said.
“The decision automakers and suppliers make [on reshoring] will depend on whether target rates are applied without exemption, and whether the tariff targets are likely to stay,” Rakoto said. “You don’t make decisions overnight to produce or change production. For some small companies that might be easier. But for large companies, they need stability, so they will wait for the outcomes of all those discussions before they make a move.”
Automakers and suppliers can take some temporary measures to limit imports, but those are likely to be limited, the consultant said.
“When you make major changes, you need to hire people. You need to make sure you have enough room or capacity to do so. Every automaker has a little bit of agility to make changes, but it can only be done to the measure of what’s available in terms of bandwidth in one factory or another,” he said.
“You cannot move overnight the production of one version of a pickup truck from one place to another location and say it’s going to be fine. There are too many logistical and supply chain issues to do that on a major scale in a short time,” the consultant said
“Automakers will need to see which tariffs will stay, and then strategically adjust over a period of years to get the best results,” Rakoto said.
UK initiates developing country safeguard exclusion review
The UK’s Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) has initiated a tariff rate quota (TRQ) review, to consider whether certain developing countries should no longer be excluded from the safeguard measure on steel, Kallanish notes.
The TRA has reviewed trade data which indicate there may have been a change of circumstances, namely that import levels from certain developing countries have changed since the application of the measure. The threshold to initiate a review under regulation 35B(1) of the Regulations has therefore been met.
The period of investigation for this review is 1 January 2024 to 31 December 2024.
TRA will consider whether the amount or allocation of the TRQ is appropriate for domestic market conditions, as well as the desirability of maintaining, as far as possible, traditional trade flows.
Anyone interested in taking part in the review can register their interest until 23:59 on 14 March.
The Statement of Intended Final Recommendation is due for publishing on 28 March, while the Final Recommendation is scheduled for 30 June.
Adam Smith Poland
UK’s All Steels says price escalation now ‘unavoidable’
UK-based trader AllSteels says an escalation in prices is now looking unavoidable amid a slew of inflationary factors, including US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, potential government demand and an expected reduction of safeguard quotes, Kallanish learns.
Lawrence McDougall, managing director, notes in a market evaluation sent to customers that the impact of globalisation and geopolitical tensions on the steel industry is set to be more pronounced than ever in the year ahead.
“President Trump’s decision to impose substantial steel tariffs on nearly all nations has far-reaching consequences, which will only intensify as other countries introduce similar retaliatory measures. The inevitable outcome of this scenario is a resurgence of inflation and rising steel prices,” he says.
The statement notes the gap between UK steel production and consumption, highlighting the country’s reliance on imports. For long products; structural sections, merchant bars and hollow sections, 86.16% of these imports come from the EU and Turkey.
McDougall says there have already been £20-30/tonne ($25-38/t) price increases by most European longs producers but notes this is only the first wave of such hikes.
“In the US, protectionist measures have already enabled domestic producers to raise steel prices on certain products by $165/t during February 2025 and the US scrap producers are wasting no time in taking a slice of this increase as well as enjoying the uptick in local demand.”
It notes upward movement in Kallanish’s North American hot rolled coil price during February, as an indicator of the price trend.
The firm has observed the impact of Trump’s tariffs on ferrous scrap, especially for Turkey, the biggest buyer of US scrap. It notes Turkey can either pay a premium for US scrap now, or buy from alternative markets.
“The latter scenario is already tightening scrap availability in Europe; as this supply and demand balance switches, prices are naturally increasing.”
In the coming months, McDougall expects a cut to both UK and EU safeguard quotas, dramatically heightening the risk of 25% import duties on long products.
This is in addition to the introduction of CBAM, which he sees as a standalone event will create one of the biggest upshifts in UK steel prices.
Therefore, as of 3 March, the company has increased its stock items by £20-30/t.
It also notes that stocks are very low across the supply chain, meaning demand is likely to jump quite quickly as buyers make their moves to beat price increases.
He also believes government infrastructure spending is imminent and will improve demand.
“We are at that turning point where we all need to be prepared for price escalation that now looks unavoidable,” he adds.
Carrie Bone UK
Tariffs on Canada, Mexico definitely start Tuesday
Indicating that the time for negotiations on tariffs with Canada and Mexico is over, US President Donald Trump on Monday said he will proceed with the 25% tariffs on the two countries on Tuesday, Kallanish discovers from the White House press briefing.
Trump told reporters that there is no room for Canadian or Mexican officials to negotiate a reprieve from the levies.
“Tariffs, 25% on Canada, and 25% on Mexico … will start tomorrow,” Trump confirmed during the press gathering. “So they’re going to have a tariff, and what they have to do is build their car plants, frankly, and other things, in the United States, in which case you have no tariffs.”
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Monday said she was waiting for Trump to make a decision about tariffs and that she might talk with him before the deadline. “Everything is possible,” she said.
John Isaacson USA
EU countries ramp up steel action plan pressure
Multiple EU nations have put pressure on the European Commission and other member states to work closely together on the anticipated “Steel and Metals Action Plan”, to boost clean industry while preserving competitiveness.
Representatives from Italy, France, Spain, Belgium, Luxembourg, Romania and Slovakia made the plea last week during a summit hosted at the French Ministry of the Economy, Finance and Industrial and Digital Sovereignty in Paris.
The Commission is scheduled to announce its long-awaited Steel and Metals Action Plan in the spring.
“The effects of this crisis are already being felt: for the past years, EU steel producers saw continued low production and had to idle capacity to adjust to depressed demand and increasing import penetration … In the short term, we must continue making full and efficient use of the EU trade defence toolbox,” the nations say in a joint statement obtained by Kallanish.
“Regarding the major issue of overcapacities, we must keep in mind that the steel safeguards will expire in June 2026 … By 2026, the economic context is expected to significantly deteriorate for the steel industry with the anticipated rise of global excess capacity (+27% from 2023 to 2026 – from 275% of EU capacities to 350%), according to the OECD and the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity,” it continues.
“For flat steel from blast furnaces, for instance, the price gap our steelmakers cannot bridge is estimated to amount to about €55/tonne of steel, in addition to the extra cost of CO2 (also €55/t of steel, in 2026, and assuming an ETS cost of €85/tonne of CO2),” the statement reads.
Among the urgent measures proposed, a rapid deployment of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy mechanisms is required, as well as the rapid enhancement of the current safeguard measure. After current safeguards expire in mid-2026, a new steel sector defence mechanism should replace them, addressing existing flaws, overcapacity, and EU demand fluctuations.
To carry out decarbonisation and provide clarity for steelmakers, structural measures like the Carbon Border Adjustment Measure (CBAM) need to be improved. “Further work is needed between now and 2026 to tackle the anticipated risks, particularly as regards the risks of carbon leakage, on both the downstream and export sides. In particular, to avoid resource shuffling, default emission values for steel products could be applied as soon as possible,” the statement continues.
Officials from various countries are advocating the Commission to maintain competitive energy costs at the EU level, guarantee access to raw materials while keeping scrap within the EU, and establish a framework that fosters the growth of green product markets, potentially through public procurement initiatives.
Spanish steel association Unesid called for similar measures following its participation in the meeting last week.
The Strategic Dialogue On Steel will be held today, chaired by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Natalia Capra France