Eurofer: US tariffs threaten European steel and European sovereignty
The imposition of a 25% blanket tariff by the United States’ administration on all steel imports exacerbates an already dire market environment for the European steel industry and poses a genuine threat to its future. The sector expects the European Union to respond with an effective revision of the steel safeguard measures that will mitigate the impact of the U.S. tariffs and ensure the longevity of the industry in the long-term, says the European Steel Association.
“President Trump’s ‘America First’ policy threatens to be a final nail in the coffin of the European steel industry. If European steel disappears, so too does European automotive, European security and defence, energy infrastructure, transportation and others. What is at stake is European sovereignty”, said Dr. Henrik Adam, President of the European Steel Association (Eurofer). “Under the first Trump administration, we already witnessed the huge impact of Section 232. EU steel exports to the U.S. decreased by over 1 million tonnes, while for every three tonnes of steel deflected from the US market because of Section 232, two tonnes arrived in the EU.
Today, the overall market situation for European steel is much worse than in 2018. These new measures imposed by Trump are more extensive, therefore the impact of the U.S. tariffs is likely to be far greater”, continued Dr. Adam.
Firstly, the Trump administration has removed all product exemptions and Tariff Rate Quotas that the EU had previously negotiated. With EU steel exports to the U.S. already having fallen by 1 million tonnes, the EU now stands to lose at least another 1 million tonnes of steel exports to the US. Moreover, the blanket import tariff also now includes ‘derivative’ steel products, reducing export opportunities for a further 1 million tonnes of EU products.
Secondly, with global excess capacity having reached record levels in 2024 and set to increase again in 2025, the EU market – already saturated with cheap steel imports from Asia, North Africa and the Middle East – will be further flooded as steel intended for the US market will be redirected. 18 million tonnes of steel were exported to the U.S. under preferential regimes and are now at risk of deflection towards the EU market. EU steel production, which lost 9 million tonnes of capacity and 18,000 jobs in 2024 alone, is at even greater risk. There is also the prospect that yet more steel will be deflected to the EU market if additional reciprocal tariffs are imposed by the U.S.
“Simply put, while all other countries – today the U.S. – protect their national steel production, the EU has had the most vulnerable market in the world”, said Dr. Adam. “Our producers already face the highest energy prices while having the highest climate ambition. Meanwhile, they are being undercut by cheaper, more carbon intensive foreign imports”, he added.
In view of the existential threat to European steel caused by the spill-over of global overcapacity, foreign subsidies and dumping, now compounded by the new U.S. tariffs, the EU has committed to revising the current EU steel safeguard regime by 1 April.
“It is crucial that the revised steel EU safeguard measures are robust and effective to respond immediately and decisively to counter further deflection of steel imports flooding the EU market. The time has come”, concluded Dr. Adam.
EU announces proposed steel safeguard changes
The European Union has announced a series of proposed adjustments to the steel safeguard measures, detailed in a notification circulated on March 10.
The investigation, initiated on Dec. 17, 2024 by the European Commission, was in response to the challenging situation facing the EU steel sector, which has been exacerbated by an increase in global overcapacity and a continued decrease in EU demand.
The proposed changes include reducing the liberalization rate from 1% to 0.1% in response to a 14% decrease in consumption since 2019, and negative outlooks for the global steel markets.
Cuts were also suggested to various key exporters, such as for India’s HRC quota by approximately 23.7%, and Turkey by 14.4%. The EC also announced the removal of up to 65% of the redistributed Russian and Belarusian volumes.
Other proposals included splitting category 1 materials, which includes hot-rolled coil, into two subcategories to further delineate between specialized materials specifying the higher-value flat steel product falling under the CN Code 7212.60.00 (falling into the newly created subcategory 1B) and those for more general applications.
A further potential change was the removal of residual quota access for a number of products, including those falling under several categories, – impacting HRC, CRC, and HDG.
In addition, new caps on the maximum volume that a single country can export under residual quotas were announced, in a bid to prevent “crowding out” – where some exporters have increased outflows in specific categories of goods, limiting opportunities for traditional exporters.
Recent HRC import dynamics have remained stunted in recent weeks, as offer levels have gradually increased but buying interest has been largely absent. Market participants have cited a low-cost spread against domestic mills, alongside fears of material missing quota windows and the ongoing uncertainty towards the result of the investigation.
Market reactions
One trader supported the new changes, commenting that “it was softer than expected.”
The industry response to the safeguard quota adjustments has been mixed. While some believe that the quota reductions coupled with production could provide short-term support for domestic prices, others argue that the cuts are too minor to make a real impact.
A German mill source pointed to the revised quotas and recent supply outages at key EU players as supportive of prices. He said, “The import quotas have decreased, so that should support domestic prices in the near term.”
“Another major factor is that Arcelor’s plants are under maintenance. So that helps the situation too, despite Salzgitter restarting its rolling mill last Friday.”
However, other sources pointed to the continuing underlying poor demand as potentially limiting any potential price recovery.
“EU’s safeguard measures will tighten imports, but weak demand may cap price increases,” a Germany-based distributor source noted. “The key focus is on real consumption trends, mill pricing, and TRQ usage. If imports slow too much, we may need to secure volumes early—but if demand remains weak, waiting could bring better deals.”
Other market participants expressed disappointment in the measures, labeling the proposals as “a soft approach.”
“It’s surprising because the reduction in quotas is not significant, and will not change much in my opinion,” a Germany-based service center source said.
“I don’t think this is enough to support domestic prices. Importers would be happy because they don’t need to pay a lot.”
Likewise, an Italian mill source said, “This is an extremely weak response, effectively leaving the door open for massive imports, starting from HRC.”
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur545/mt CIF Antwerp and in Southern Europe at Eur545/mt CIF Italy on March 11.
Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Authors: Charles Thompson, Devbrat Saha
Leak reveals planned EU safeguard amendments, new caps
The European Commission’s steel safeguard measure review will result in products that have experienced severe import surges receiving additional restrictions such as new quota caps and revising the administration of unused quotas, according to a leaked Commission document seen by Kallanish.
The review began in December and is scheduled to be completed this month.
Adjustments also include reducing liberalisation rates from 1% to 0.1%, to slow tariff-rate quota (TRQ) expansion and ensure a better balance with market demand.
Key changes include the split of hot rolled coil (HRC, Category 1A) into two subcategories: 1A for regular HRC and 1B for high-value steel under CN 7212 60 00. This adjustment follows the rapid exhaustion of duty-free access for specialised products after the 15% cap on residual quotas was introduced in the previous review.
For metallic coated sheets (category 4A), TRQs will be reduced due to consistently high quota exhaustion rates, surpassing 100% usage each quarter. To prevent overconcentration, a 25% cap on residual quotas per country will be implemented.
For non-alloy and other alloy quarto plate (category 7), TRQs remain highly utilised despite lower EU demand and increasing imports. A 20% cap on residual quota access per country will be introduced to curb dominance by major suppliers like China, India and Türkiye.
Hollow sections (category 21) will also see a reduction in TRQs due to sustained import pressure, despite declining EU consumption. The Commission will introduce a 30% cap on residual quota access per country to prevent excessive reliance on a few suppliers.
In the case of other seamless tubes (category 24), TRQs will be cut following a surge in imports and a decline in demand. Major suppliers, such as China, Ukraine, and the UK, will be subject to a 30% cap on residual quotas to avoid monopolisation, the document reveals.
A significant structural change is the removal of the carry-over mechanism for unused quotas in high-import pressure categories within group 1. This includes categories 1A, 4A, 7, 21 and 24. Previously, unused TRQs could be transferred to the next quarter, allowing for stockpiling and speculative behaviour. The removal of this mechanism will ensure a more equitable distribution of quotas and discourage import surges in later quarters, the document notes.
Further restrictions will be applied to developing country exemptions. China, Egypt and India will lose their previous exemptions in multiple categories due to exceeding the 3% import threshold and will be included in the TRQ lists for categories 1A; 1B; 3A, non-grain oriented electrical steel; and 5, metallic coated sheets.
While the Commission has considered increasing the 25% out-of-quota duty, this change has not yet been implemented, pending further review of import trends.
Once officially published, the changes to country exemptions will take effect from 1 April. The broader TRQ adjustments, including new category splits and revised quota administration, will be enforced starting 1 July.
The European Commission did not respond to request for comment on Tuesday.
Elina Virchenko Turkey
Norway to introduce its own CBAM in 2027
The Norwegian government has announced that it is planning to introduce the country’s own Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) from 2027. The ministry of climate and environment and The Norwegian Environment Agency will work together on the scheme.
With its CBAM, Norway aims to prevent the European industry from losing its competitiveness and from relocating to other countries where environmental regulations are not stringent.
Andreas Bjelland Eriksen, minister of climate and environment, stated that the CBAM will set an equal price for emissions caused by the production of goods, whether they are produced in Norway or the EU, or are imported from other countries. Meanwhile, Jens Stoltenberg, minister of finance, pointed out that the CBAM will maintain the competitiveness of domestic industry, while providing incentives for other countries to cut their emissions.
EU’s proposed new steel import safeguards not tough enough, mills say
The decision to adjust the measures followed a review that began in December 2024. The proposed adjustments to the measures will come into effect on April 1, 2025.
The changes have not been published on the official WTO website yet, but the text has already been distributed among European steel market participants.
The existing measures have been in place since 2018, intended to protect EU steelmakers from a potential surge in imports. The current measures were set to run until June 30, 2026.
The new safeguard adjustments indicate that the annual liberalization rate (the annual increase in the TRQ) will change from 1% to just a 0.1% increase.
“Data shows that the liberalization rate in the past has largely outpaced the evolution of consumption. While TRQs have been increased by almost 25% since the measure was imposed [in 2018], consumption has decreased by 14% over the same period,” a European Commission note to the WTO read.
“These opposing trends have therefore significantly widened the gap between the level of TRQs and the market demand, and created an opportunity for imports to significantly increase their market share,” it added. “The latest market outlooks on world steel consumption only foresee a modest recovery in 2025 [to levels last seen in 2023], which the Union market is expected to follow.”
The Commission also suggested the introduction of a refined regime for access to the residual quota for countries benefiting from country-specific quotas.
Larger exporters that have exhausted their country-specific quota could access the residual quota volumes in the final quarter of the year. The objective of this mechanism would be to avoid volumes in the residual quota being unused.
Under the current functioning review, the Commission was set to cancel such access for several categories, including hot-rolled coil (category 1), cold-rolled coil (category 2), hot-dipped galvanized coil (category 4A), heavy plate (category 7), rebar (category 13) and wire rod (category 16).
The Commission also introduced a new 1B quota for HRC for imports falling under HS code 7212 60 00, “following crowding-out of a highly specific product in category 1 (HRC) as a consequence of introducing the 15% cap in the second functioning review,” the notice read.
Key adjustments proposed
New caps per country
New caps per country over the TRQ volume initially available in each quarter will be introduced not only for HRC and wire rod (categories 1A and 16), as suggested in the review in summer 2024, but also for HDG (categories 4A and 4B), heavy plate (category 7), rebar (category 14) and others (see table).
Notably, for HRC, the cap has been reduced from 15%, initially proposed in July 2024, to 13%.
The total allowance for the “other countries” safeguards category for HRC (category 1A) was suggested at 856,769 tonnes for April-June 2025. This means that any supplier in this category will be able to supply no more than 111,379 tonnes (13% of the total allocation) to the EU during the specified period.
The adjustment would further affect HRC imports falling under the “other countries” category. Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan and Egypt are the major HRC suppliers to the EU under that heading, with Asian suppliers offering the most competitive prices, according to market participants in Europe.
In contrast, in April-June 2024, Vietnam alone supplied to the bloc 231,491 tonnes of HRC.
HRC buyer sources,lambasted the suggested caps, pointing out that they would make importing steel “more like gambling.”
“A cap introduced for nearly all products – plate, CRC, rebar, you name it. Looks like they want to stop us from importing steel altogether,” a trading source said.
Reversing redistribution of sanctioned steel volumes from Russia and Belarus will result in lower HRC quotas
Following the start of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, the EU banned the import of all finished steel products originating in Russia and its supporter, Belarus
Those volumes have been redistributed in each product category where Russia and Belarus had country-specific quotas, thus increasing the allocation volumes available to other countries.
But given the current context of the general deceleration in the EU steel market and its deteriorating outlook, “the Commission considers it no longer in the Union’s interest to have these volumes available,” the document said.
The sanctioned tonnages will therefore be removed from the HRC, wire rod, heavy plate and hollow sections quotas.
Specifically, for category 1A (HRC), the Commission suggested a reversal of the redistribution, by as much as 65% of the volumes.
This would result in lower quarterly allocations, as the table below shows.
Against all expectations, no significant quota cuts have been introduced.
“It’s disappointing. No big quotas cut, even though it was expected, and [regional steel association] Eurofer demanded a 50% reduction of quotas. Again, the Commission is too much in the hands of [steel] importers,” a mill source in Europe said.
“HRC quotas are cut by no more than 11% in total, against expectations of 15-50%. It’s a joke. No more than 1 million tonnes of [HRC] imports will be gone [from the EU market] as a result [of new safeguards],” a mill source said.
European HRC prices inch up; market digests safeguard news
Northern Europe
Offers for May-delivery HRC from major steelmakers in Northern Europe were reported at €640-660 ($694-715) per tonne ex-works, but sources were not ruling out the possibility of a fresh round of price rises shortly.
Sources reported mainly hand-to-mouth activity in the spot market, with buyers digesting safeguards updates and postponing big purchases.
In the Benelux area, transactions for small tonnages of HRC were reported at €650 per tonne ex-works.
In Germany, buyers estimated achievable prices at €630-640 per tonne ex-works.
Italy-origin HRC was offered to Germany at €650-660 per tonne delivered.
As a result, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, at €635.83 per tonne on Tuesday, up by €3.95 per tonne from €631.88 per tonne on Monday
The Northern European index was up by €6.79 per tonne week on week and by €34.43 per tonne month on month.
Italy
In Southern Europe, meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, was calculated at €620.00 per tonne on Tuesday, unchanged day on day.
The index was up by €1.67 per tonne week on week and by €26.25 per tonne month on month.
Offers for May-delivery HRC from two Italian suppliers were reported at €620-640 per tonne delivered (€610-630 per tonne ex-works).
But sources said that target prices for June was around €660-680 per tonne base delivered (€650-670 per tonne ex-works).
Buyers’ estimations of tradeable values were reported at €610-620 per tonne ex-works on Tuesday.
Trading was also quiet in Italy since buyers remained cautious with bookings because they were waiting to have more clarity on safeguard measures.
“Real demand is still weak. Price rises is supported only by safeguards review,” a buyer in Italy said.
Safeguard reaction
The market was digesting news about safeguards adjustments, made available on Tuesday, and it looks like the changed proposed by the European Commission fell short of everyone’s expectations.
Among other things, the Commission suggested a reduction to the HRC cap per country over the tariff rate quota (TRQ) volume initially available in each quarter from 15% to13%.
On top of that, quarterly HRC allocations will be reduced as a result of removing “sanctioned” Russian HRC tonnages from quotas.
In general, the market had mixed reactions to the proposed safeguard measure adjustments.
Mill sources said the proposed measures fell short of expectations and they were “disappointed.” Buyers, in their place, lambasted the quota reductions and cap introduction for a number of steel products.
“[A] cap [was] introduced for nearly all products – plate, CRC, rebar – you name it, all are there. Looks like they want to stop us from importing steel altogether,” a trading source said.
“Looks like the current measures are balanced this time; nobody’s happy, neither mills nor buyers,” a second buyer said.
“HRC quotas are cut by no more than 11% in total, against expectations of 15-50%. It’s a joke. No more than 1 million tonnes of [HRC] imports will be gone [from the EU market] as a result [of new safeguards],” a mill source said.
Nonetheless, the stricter safeguards, along with higher domestic supply, were expected to support domestic HRC prices rebound, sources said.
Tighter domestic supply
On Monday, ArcelorMittal announced a major maintenance program in France, which would entail 90 days stoppage of a blast furnace in Dunkirk.
The maintenance will take place during April-June. At the same time, as of April, reviewed safeguards were expected to come into force, limiting import coil supply.
Industry sources suggested these two factors would likely support a further HRC price rise in Europe.
“Real demand is not there, but tighter supply [of HRC] might boost apparent consumption,” a buyer source said.
On top of that, German steelmaker Salzgitter has declared force majeure on flat steel deliveries, following a fire at its hot strip mill in end-February.
Several sources familiar with the matter said that operations at Salzgitter’s hot-strip mill had been resumed on March 7, and estimated output losses as a result of the fire to be around 80,000 tonnes of HRC.
The company had not responded to requests for comment about the loss of production and an equipment restart date by the time of publication.
EU proposes further 3-year exemption from steel safeguard measures, anti-dumping duties for Ukraine
Ukraine’s exemption from EU safeguard measures, initially granted in June 2022 after the Russian invasion, has been renewed twice already – in June 2023 and June 2024.
Unlike previous extensions, the new exemption will apply for three more years and, if approved by the European Council and Parliament, will come into force on June 6.
The Commission said it is also “currently working on a longer-term solution [to] provide economic certainty and a stable framework for trade to both Ukraine and the EU.”
Europe is Ukraine’s largest trading partner, with significant steel exports to countries such as Poland, Bulgaria, Italy, Romania, Greece, and Moldova.
The news of the proposed extension comes amid an ongoing review of EU safeguard measures, which was announced on December 17, 2024 and is expected to conclude by March 31.
Trump doubles tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminium to 50% in trade retaliation
The energy tariff was imposed in retaliation to Trump’s restoration of Section 232 tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium from Canada and Mexico that was announced last month and is slated to go into effect on Wednesday March 12.
Trump announced the increase in tariffs for Canada on Tuesday March 11 on his Truth Social platform, claiming Canada was “one of the highest tariffing nations anywhere in the world.
“I will shortly be declaring a National Emergency on Electricity within the threatened area [of Minnesota, New York and Michigan.] This will allow the US to quickly do what has to be done to alleviate this abusive threat from Canada,” the president said in the post.
Trump also called on Canada to “immediately drop their Anti-American farmer tariff of 250-390% on various US dairy products, which has long been considered outrageous.”
The US president promised additional tariff retaliation against Canada when it announces reciprocal tariffs on trading partners on April 2.
“If other egregious, long time tariffs are not likewise dropped by Canada, I will substantially increase, on April 2, the tariffs on cars coming into the US which will, essentially, permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in Canada. Those cars can easily be made in the USA!” Trump wrote in his Truth Social post.
He reiterated his contention that Canada relies on the US for military protection and “pays very little for national security.”
“We are subsidizing Canada to the tune of more than $200 billion a year. Why? This cannot continue,” Trump said, restating his call for Canada “to be become the 51st state, a move that make all tariffs, and everything else, totally disappear” and lower taxes for Canadians.
“The artificial line of separation drawn many years ago will finally disappear, and we will have the safest and most beautiful nation anywhere in the world — And your brilliant anthem, ‘O Canada,’ will continue to play, but now representing a great and powerful state within the greatest nation that world has ever seen,” Trump said.
