European HRC prices inch up as market weighs import restrictions, trade pressures
European domestic hot-rolled coil prices inched up March 13, with market sources weighing the European Commission’s safeguard adjustments and other trade pressures.
Despite earlier hopes that the safeguard review would lead to significant shifts in market dynamics, steel producers have largely welcomed the changes, while importers and traders expressed frustration over quota reductions and increased restrictions on carryover volumes.
A Germany-based distributor said the adjustments are a “balanced plan,” noting that while the changes were not drastic, they reinforced protectionist measures without overtly increasing tariffs.
The market was divided on the impact of the safeguard revisions. A source at a major European mill said expectations for dramatic price changes were unrealistic and that the safeguard measures were “having an effect” but not triggering immediate price hikes. Meanwhile, traders voiced concerns that the reduction of available import quotas—particularly with Russian volumes no longer being reallocated—was limiting supply options.
HRC offers in Northwest Europe were heard at Eur650-660/mt ex-works Ruhr, with tradable values at Eur635-650/mt. In southern Europe, HRC tradable values remained in a similar range, while lower-priced import offers, such as Eur570-580/mt CIF Italy from Asia, were deemed unworkable due to quota constraints and anticipated antidumping measures.
The broader global trade environment is also weighing on the market outlook. While trade tensions with the US may not have an immediate impact on domestic steel pricing, they contribute to the overall uncertainty in the market, a European distributor said.
Looking ahead, sources expect European steel prices to continue rising gradually over the coming weeks, with potential increases of Eur10-20/mt. However, demand remains weak. A German distributor noted that optimism surrounding the new government’s planned stimulus measures—estimated at $500 billion—could support steel demand in the medium term.
Platts assessed HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur630/mt EXW Ruhr, up Eur5 on the day, and in southern Europe at Eur620/mt EXW Italy, stable on the day.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur545/mt CIF Antwerp and in Southern Europe at Eur545/mt CIF Italy, both stable on the day.
Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Italian plate prices mainly flat; imports from South Korea to take a major hit from new safeguards
Italy
In Italy, offers for S275 heavy plate were reported by buyers and sellers at €660-670 ($719-730) per tonne ex-works, stable week on week.
Transactions for such material were heard at lower levels of €640-650 per tonne ex-works. One supplier reported having sealed a deal for a minor tonnage at €660 per tonne ex-works.
The cost of import slab – the key feedstock for plate production – was stable at $500-530 per tonne CFR. But due to the US dollar depreciation against the euro, rerollers felt more “comfortable” maintaining heavy plate prices at €640-650 per tonne ex-works.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel domestic plate, 8-40mm, exw Southern Europe was unchanged at €640-650 per tonne on Wednesday.
The US dollar was hovering around at $1.09 to €1 on Wednesday, compared with $1.04 to €1 a month earlier.
Trading in the spot market for heavy plate has picked up in March compared with the low levels observed in January and February, but overall traded volumes remained limited.
Sources expect no major price changes in the near term, they said.
Safeguards reaction
The market was digesting news about safeguard adjustments, which were made available on Tuesday March 11
While quota cuts for heavy plate were not as severe as expected (see table), there was a newly introduced cap per single country over the tariff rate quota (TRQ) volume initially available in each quarter, set at 20%.
This will affect steel plate imports falling under the ‘other countries’ category. Notably, South Korea, Indonesia and India are major heavy plate suppliers to the EU under that category, offering the most competitive prices, according to market participants in Europe.
For example, the total allowance for steel heavy plate deliveries from ‘other countries’ for 2025 is set around 2.2 million tonnes. That means that with the 20% cap, each individual country falling under “other countries” category cannot supply more than 440,000 tonnes per year of steel plate to Europe.
Major disruption from new safeguards was expected for South Korean suppliers.
Notably, in 2024, South Korea delivered around 800,839 tonnes of plate to the EU, according to Global Trade Tracker (GTT) statistics, which is double the new allocation volumes.
India supplied around 470,816 tonnes of plate to the bloc in 2024, while Indonesia supplied 430,693 tonnes.
The most recent deals for May-shipment plate from South Korea to Italy and Spain were done at €570-580 per tonne CFR in early March.
Fastmarkets weekly assessment for steel plate (8-40mm) import, cfr main port Southern Europe was at €570-580 per tonne on Wednesday, stable week on week.
Sources said the move to maintain the individual heavy plate quota for Ukraine was a “strange decision” considering that after the Russian invasion of the country in 2022, plate exports from Ukraine have almost vanished.
Ukraine’s key plate-producing assets were Metinvest’s Mariupol-based plants Azovstal and Ilyich Iron & Steel, but as a result of Russia’s invasion, Metinvest has lost control of both.
In 2024, total plate deliveries from Ukraine to Europe were practically zero, GTT statistics show.
“It’s a weird decision to keep individual plate quota for Ukraine, considering that plate-producing facilities have been destroyed by Russia. Those volumes could have been added to global [plate] quota,” one buyer in Italy said.
Besides, Ukrainian steel imports has been exempted from EU anti-dumping duties and safeguard measures since June 2022 with a further three-year exemption proposed by the European Commission on March 11, 2025.
EU’s proposed new steel import safeguards not tough enough, mills say
The decision to adjust the measures followed a review that began in December 2024. The proposed adjustments to the measures will come into effect on April 1, 2025.
The changes have not been published on the official WTO website yet, but the text has already been distributed among European steel market participants.
The existing measures have been in place since 2018, intended to protect EU steelmakers from a potential surge in imports. The current measures were set to run until June 30, 2026.
The new safeguard adjustments indicate that the annual liberalization rate (the annual increase in the TRQ) will change from 1% to just a 0.1% increase.
“Data shows that the liberalization rate in the past has largely outpaced the evolution of consumption. While TRQs have been increased by almost 25% since the measure was imposed [in 2018], consumption has decreased by 14% over the same period,” a European Commission note to the WTO read.
“These opposing trends have therefore significantly widened the gap between the level of TRQs and the market demand, and created an opportunity for imports to significantly increase their market share,” it added. “The latest market outlooks on world steel consumption only foresee a modest recovery in 2025 [to levels last seen in 2023], which the Union market is expected to follow.”
The Commission also suggested the introduction of a refined regime for access to the residual quota for countries benefiting from country-specific quotas.
Larger exporters that have exhausted their country-specific quota could access the residual quota volumes in the final quarter of the year. The objective of this mechanism would be to avoid volumes in the residual quota being unused.
Under the current functioning review, the Commission was set to cancel such access for several categories, including hot-rolled coil (category 1), cold-rolled coil (category 2), hot-dipped galvanized coil (category 4A), heavy plate (category 7), rebar (category 13) and wire rod (category 16).
The Commission also introduced a new 1B quota for HRC for imports falling under HS code 7212 60 00, “following crowding-out of a highly specific product in category 1 (HRC) as a consequence of introducing the 15% cap in the second functioning review,” the notice read.
Key adjustments proposed
New caps per country
New caps per country over the TRQ volume initially available in each quarter will be introduced not only for HRC and wire rod (categories 1A and 16), as suggested in the review in summer 2024, but also for HDG (categories 4A and 4B), heavy plate (category 7), rebar (category 14) and others (see table).
Notably, for HRC, the cap has been reduced from 15%, initially proposed in July 2024, to 13%.
The total allowance for the “other countries” safeguards category for HRC (category 1A) was suggested at 856,769 tonnes for April-June 2025. This means that any supplier in this category will be able to supply no more than 111,379 tonnes (13% of the total allocation) to the EU during the specified period.
The adjustment would further affect HRC imports falling under the “other countries” category. Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan and Egypt are the major HRC suppliers to the EU under that heading, with Asian suppliers offering the most competitive prices, according to market participants in Europe.
In contrast, in April-June 2024, Vietnam alone supplied to the bloc 231,491 tonnes of HRC.
HRC buyer sources,lambasted the suggested caps, pointing out that they would make importing steel “more like gambling.”
“A cap introduced for nearly all products – plate, CRC, rebar, you name it. Looks like they want to stop us from importing steel altogether,” a trading source said.
Reversing redistribution of sanctioned steel volumes from Russia and Belarus will result in lower HRC quotas
Following the start of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, the EU banned the import of all finished steel products originating in Russia and its supporter, Belarus
Those volumes have been redistributed in each product category where Russia and Belarus had country-specific quotas, thus increasing the allocation volumes available to other countries.
But given the current context of the general deceleration in the EU steel market and its deteriorating outlook, “the Commission considers it no longer in the Union’s interest to have these volumes available,” the document said.
The sanctioned tonnages will therefore be removed from the HRC, wire rod, heavy plate and hollow sections quotas.
Specifically, for category 1A (HRC), the Commission suggested a reversal of the redistribution, by as much as 65% of the volumes.
This would result in lower quarterly allocations, as the table below shows.
Against all expectations, no significant quota cuts have been introduced.
“It’s disappointing. No big quotas cut, even though it was expected, and [regional steel association] Eurofer demanded a 50% reduction of quotas. Again, the Commission is too much in the hands of [steel] importers,” a mill source in Europe said.
“HRC quotas are cut by no more than 11% in total, against expectations of 15-50%. It’s a joke. No more than 1 million tonnes of [HRC] imports will be gone [from the EU market] as a result [of new safeguards],” a mill source said.
European HRC prices inch up; market digests safeguard news
Northern Europe
Offers for May-delivery HRC from major steelmakers in Northern Europe were reported at €640-660 ($694-715) per tonne ex-works, but sources were not ruling out the possibility of a fresh round of price rises shortly.
Sources reported mainly hand-to-mouth activity in the spot market, with buyers digesting safeguards updates and postponing big purchases.
In the Benelux area, transactions for small tonnages of HRC were reported at €650 per tonne ex-works.
In Germany, buyers estimated achievable prices at €630-640 per tonne ex-works.
Italy-origin HRC was offered to Germany at €650-660 per tonne delivered.
As a result, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, at €635.83 per tonne on Tuesday, up by €3.95 per tonne from €631.88 per tonne on Monday
The Northern European index was up by €6.79 per tonne week on week and by €34.43 per tonne month on month.
Italy
In Southern Europe, meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, was calculated at €620.00 per tonne on Tuesday, unchanged day on day.
The index was up by €1.67 per tonne week on week and by €26.25 per tonne month on month.
Offers for May-delivery HRC from two Italian suppliers were reported at €620-640 per tonne delivered (€610-630 per tonne ex-works).
But sources said that target prices for June was around €660-680 per tonne base delivered (€650-670 per tonne ex-works).
Buyers’ estimations of tradeable values were reported at €610-620 per tonne ex-works on Tuesday.
Trading was also quiet in Italy since buyers remained cautious with bookings because they were waiting to have more clarity on safeguard measures.
“Real demand is still weak. Price rises is supported only by safeguards review,” a buyer in Italy said.
Safeguard reaction
The market was digesting news about safeguards adjustments, made available on Tuesday, and it looks like the changed proposed by the European Commission fell short of everyone’s expectations.
Among other things, the Commission suggested a reduction to the HRC cap per country over the tariff rate quota (TRQ) volume initially available in each quarter from 15% to13%.
On top of that, quarterly HRC allocations will be reduced as a result of removing “sanctioned” Russian HRC tonnages from quotas.
In general, the market had mixed reactions to the proposed safeguard measure adjustments.
Mill sources said the proposed measures fell short of expectations and they were “disappointed.” Buyers, in their place, lambasted the quota reductions and cap introduction for a number of steel products.
“[A] cap [was] introduced for nearly all products – plate, CRC, rebar – you name it, all are there. Looks like they want to stop us from importing steel altogether,” a trading source said.
“Looks like the current measures are balanced this time; nobody’s happy, neither mills nor buyers,” a second buyer said.
“HRC quotas are cut by no more than 11% in total, against expectations of 15-50%. It’s a joke. No more than 1 million tonnes of [HRC] imports will be gone [from the EU market] as a result [of new safeguards],” a mill source said.
Nonetheless, the stricter safeguards, along with higher domestic supply, were expected to support domestic HRC prices rebound, sources said.
Tighter domestic supply
On Monday, ArcelorMittal announced a major maintenance program in France, which would entail 90 days stoppage of a blast furnace in Dunkirk.
The maintenance will take place during April-June. At the same time, as of April, reviewed safeguards were expected to come into force, limiting import coil supply.
Industry sources suggested these two factors would likely support a further HRC price rise in Europe.
“Real demand is not there, but tighter supply [of HRC] might boost apparent consumption,” a buyer source said.
On top of that, German steelmaker Salzgitter has declared force majeure on flat steel deliveries, following a fire at its hot strip mill in end-February.
Several sources familiar with the matter said that operations at Salzgitter’s hot-strip mill had been resumed on March 7, and estimated output losses as a result of the fire to be around 80,000 tonnes of HRC.
The company had not responded to requests for comment about the loss of production and an equipment restart date by the time of publication.
EU proposes further 3-year exemption from steel safeguard measures, anti-dumping duties for Ukraine
Ukraine’s exemption from EU safeguard measures, initially granted in June 2022 after the Russian invasion, has been renewed twice already – in June 2023 and June 2024.
Unlike previous extensions, the new exemption will apply for three more years and, if approved by the European Council and Parliament, will come into force on June 6.
The Commission said it is also “currently working on a longer-term solution [to] provide economic certainty and a stable framework for trade to both Ukraine and the EU.”
Europe is Ukraine’s largest trading partner, with significant steel exports to countries such as Poland, Bulgaria, Italy, Romania, Greece, and Moldova.
The news of the proposed extension comes amid an ongoing review of EU safeguard measures, which was announced on December 17, 2024 and is expected to conclude by March 31.
Assofermet asks EU not to extend safeguard measures
Italian steel trade association Assofermet is advocating for the European Commission to archive the existing safeguard measures and refrain from extending them beyond 31 December 2025.
This is to avoid any overlap with the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which could result in further cost increases for the EU steel processing sector.
In a statement obtained by Kallanish, the association indicates that any modifications to the safeguard system should ensure that the current level of import liberalisation remains intact.
The EC should eliminate the country-specific quotas and replace them with a singular global share for each product category. To optimise the utilisation of quotas, Assofermet also recommends the implementation of a more flexible management system that permits the redistribution of unused quotas between nations at the conclusion of each quarter.
The prospect for extending or intensifying safeguard measures on imports fails to address the structural issues present in the European steel market. The ongoing lack in demand from end-user sectors cannot be resolved by additional import restrictions, the statement argues and adds that it is essential to encourage demand growth through broad economic policies, rather than relying solely on trade defence measures.
The EU steel processing sector has suffered as a result of the present safeguard in place since July 2018. The sector is facing significant challenges due to rising costs, restrictions on duty-free steel imports, and the influx of low-cost finished products from non-EU countries.
Any further safeguard revisions would introduce additional uncertainties into the entire system and supply chain.
In accordance with current EU legislation and World Trade Organisation regulations, Assofermet proposes that the safeguard legislative framework be restored to its original purpose and encourages the EC to prioritise structural solutions that boost demand and competitiveness within the European steel industry.
Last year the EC initiated an investigation to determine whether EU safeguard measures on steel imports need amending to reflect recent market developments, following a request by 13 Member States.
Natalia Capra France
European Commission bows to industry pressure, starts steel safeguards review; tougher restrictions likely
A request to initiate the review was submitted by 13 EU member states on November 29.
“The request contains evidence of a change of circumstances since the last review of the measures. In particular, the request contains information regarding the contraction in European Union demand for steel, resulting in widening gaps with the current level of duty-free quota volumes,” the notice said. “Moreover, [the surge in] China’s steel exports to major regions has pushed exports from other markets to the EU. According to the request, this calls for a reassessment of the allocation and management of the tariff-rate quotas.”
The review process will be accelerated, the Commission said, and is expected conclude by March 31, 2025, with any adjustments to the current measures expected to come into force the following month.
Industry concerns include the allocation and management of tariff-rate quotas; the crowding out of traditional trade flows; getting an updated list of developing WTO member countries excluded from the scope of the measures based on their most recent level of imports for 2024; the level of annual liberalisation of the quotas; and any other changing circumstances that could require an adjustment to the level or allocation of tariff-rate quotas.
“In any case, with all the trade measures in place we can expect increased reliance on domestically produced steel in the EU,” a distributor in the Benelux region told Fastmarkets.
Wider market
European steel safeguard measures have been in place since July 2018.
The latest review of the safeguard measures only came into force on July 1, 2024, but has already had a substantial effect on the market due to a proposed 15% cap per country over the tariff rate quota (TRQ) volume initially available in each quarter for HRC and wire rod in particular.
In addition, in August 2024 the Commission launched an anti-dumping probe into HRC imports from Egypt, India, Japan and Vietnam.
Since then, market participants have noticed that Asian suppliers have become less active and said that “importing steel has become like a gambling” now.
“These trade barriers create additional uncertainty which is not encouraging demand [for imported steel], so we can expect more demand for EU-made steel and it’s safer [to book European steel],” a trading source said.
“It’s an issue for import steel buyers in Europe that they don’t know the potential extra costs they might be facing by the time [any steel arrives],” a second trader said.
In January-September 2024, carbon steel imports to the EU amounted to 20 million tonnes. For the whole of 2023, steel imports were 24.8 million tonnes.
Sources said that imports account for up to 30% of EU steel consumption.
Global steel overcapacity, particularly in regions such as China and the US – which benefit from more favorable production conditions- was undermining the viability of the EU steel sector, producer source told Fastmarkets.
“China is massively exporting steel globally at dumped prices, which is, in turn, severely depressing prices worldwide. On top of this, these excessive exports result in trade flow diversions to the EU market,” a producer in northern Europe said.
World crude steelmaking capacity in 2023 was estimated at 2.439 billion tonnes per year, exceeding production by 552 million tpy, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
In 2023, steel output among the EU’s 27 member states fell to 126.30 million tonnes, down from 136.30 million tonnes in 2022 and down from 152.60 million tonnes in 2021, according to data from the World Steel Association.
Assofermet: Italian service centres report negative first half
Italian service centres’ sales volumes for the first half of 2024 were about 15% lower compared to the first half of 2023, Italian steel trade association Assofermet says in its market note monitored by Kallanish.
The negative trend can be attributed to persistently unsustainable prices and low margins. June saw an overall decline in demand, a situation that has been ongoing for an extended period of time.
Some end users are expressing interest in negotiating supply for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. Their goal is to secure the current low level of quotes for these periods.
“Maximum attention is now being paid to the consequences of the amended version of the [EU] safeguard … This change is set to dramatically impact the flows of this raw material [hot rolled coil] … Our concern focuses … on the lack of availability of the raw material and the consequent difficulty in maintaining stocks at an adequate level to meet the demand from end users. This adds to the inevitable price increase that EU producers will charge, due to the reduced import capacity,” Assofermet warns.
Production shutdowns at EU steel mills in August will be extensive. This is likely to strongly penalise the downstream segment. Despite the ongoing crisis in consumption, service centres will have to accept significant price increases for steel in order to maintain production and fulfil orders. “This may result in a loss of competitiveness in international markets,” the note states.
The distribution segment is facing a tired market and low visibility. Volumes for flat products are reported to be stable, while those for beams, which typically experience a surge during this season, are currently on the upswing. Finished product demand is stagnant in general but steel prices have remained relatively stable over the past few weeks.
July is expected to be a challenging month in terms of demand and price levels due to the extended closures announced by several steel mills leading to a potential shortage of certain products, Assofermet concludes.
Natalia Capra France
EU frees up some Egypt HRC quota tonnage
Egypt has seen 10,175 tonnes of its EU hot rolled coil third-quarter safeguard quota made available, despite having oversubscribed its 141,850t quota cap immediately after the current period opened, Kallanish notes.
As of 2 July, Egypt had 176,626t awaiting allocation for customs clearance. Whether the correction stems from withdrawals from quota declarations or other factors was unclear at the time of publication. The European Commission has implemented a blocking period for Egypt’s quota between 11 July and 11 August. Total awaiting allocation as of 11 July was 339t.
Vietnam, Japan and Taiwan have fully utilised their Q3 caps under the “other countries” HRC quota, each shipping 141,850t.
About 357,750t is still available under the other countries quota of 945,665t for Q3.
The US, Libya, and Canada have 100% of their other countries HRC quota caps available.
India has utilised 74% of its HRC quota. Turkey and Australia have each filled 18%.
South Korea, the UK, Serbia, and Switzerland had low quota utilisation rates, ranging from 3% to 12%.
The European Commission capped the maximum volume a single country can export under the other countries TRQ to 15% per quarter to stabilise the market, it said earlier. This category’s early quota exhaustion had led to market imbalances and increased import pressure.
The Italian Customs Agency (ADM) introduced an experimental procedure for tariff quotas starting from April, allowing importers, if quotas are exhausted, to cancel or adjust their import operations without incurring additional duties.
| Origin | Quota 1.7-30.9.2024 | Imported | Balance | Awaiting allocation | Avaliable TRQ, % |
| Russia | not applicable | – | – | – | – |
| Türkiye | 475,174 | 84,143 | 391,031 | 570 | 82 |
| India | 301,704 | 222,210 | 79,494 | – | 26 |
| Korea, Republic of | 188,405 | 11,369 | 177,037 | 4,128 | 92 |
| United Kingdom | 157,608 | 4,972 | 152,636 | 1,099 | 96 |
| Serbia | 167,257 | 18,215 | 149,041 | 1,322 | 88 |
| Other countries, inc | |||||
| Egypt | 141,850 | 131,675 | 10,175 | 339 | 7 |
| Vietnam | 141,850 | 141,850 | – | – | 0 |
| Japan | 141,850 | 141,850 | – | – | 0 |
| Taiwan | 141,850 | 141,850 | – | – | 0 |
| Australia | 141,850 | 26,046 | 115,804 | – | 82 |
| Switzerland | 141,850 | 4,183 | 137,666 | 165 | 97 |
| United States | 141,850 | 461 | 141,389 | 1 | 100 |
| Libya | 141,850 | – | 141,850 | – | 100 |
| Canada | 141,850 | – | 141,850 | – | 100 |
| Total other countries | 945,665 | 587,914 | 357,750 | – | 38 |
| Total | 2,235,812 | 928,823 | 1,306,989 | – | 58 |
Source: EU TARIC, as of 11 July. Calculated by Kallanish
Elina Virchenko UAE
Multiple origins exceed EU HRC safeguard quota cap
Egypt, Vietnam, Japan and Taiwan have each exceeded their 15% EU hot rolled coil safeguard quota cap for the third quarter, as expected, immediately after the opening of the new quota term. India has meanwhile exhausted over two thirds of its HRC quota.
Egypt, Vietnam, Japan and Taiwan have each had their allowance capped at 141,850 tonnes for Q3, after the European Commission introduced a hotly contested amendment to the Category 1 “other country” quota, alongside extending safeguard measures to mid-2026.
According to EU TARIC data, as of 2 July, Egypt has 176,626t awaiting allocation for customs clearance, while Vietnam has 208,880t, Japan 209,403t and Taiwan 228,520t. Tonnages exceeding the quota will need to pay duty to enter the EU market or be subject to costly storage until the following quota period.
Based on feedback from buyers interviewed by Kallanish, the average duty to be paid will amount to approximately 8%.
Indian HRC, meanwhile, has 209,807t awaiting allocation out of a total quota of 301,704t. Because Indian mills were largely out of the export market in the second quarter due to maintenance, the remaining quota may not get filled quickly.
South Korea, which almost exhausted its Q2 EU HRC quota, has only 1,386t awaiting allocation so far in Q3.
On Category 16 – wire rod, whose other country quota has also been capped at 15% per origin, in other words, at 18,413t, Algeria already has 27,702t awaiting allocation. Egypt has 7,858t awaiting allocation, South Korea 10,745t and Indonesia 14,965t.
Various speakers at Kallanish Europe Steel Markets 2024 in Milan last month lamented the lack of notice given by the European Commission that it plans to implement the 15% cap. The other country HRC quota had been exhausted within days for consecutive quotas, and several buyers had already ordered material from the impacted origins before the Commission notice was published in late May.
Adam Smith Poland
