European HRC prices largely stable, buyers expect more clarity on future market trends
At the same time, mills were heard to still be bullish, pushing for slightly higher prices for HRC with delivery in the second quarter of the year, Fastmarkets understands.
Last week, the European Commission notified the World Trade Organization (WTO) of adjustments to the region’s steel safeguard measures, affecting annual liberalization, introducing caps and changing residual tariff rate quota (TRQ) access for a number of steel products, including HRC, Fastmarkets reported.
The proposed amendments are expected to enter into force on April 1.
In addition, the European Commission announced provisional anti-dumping (AD) duties for HRC imports originating from Egypt, Vietnam and Japan, with the new measures set to be imposed as of April 7.
Both moves were expected to influence the market of imported HRC to Europe, and in turn the domestic prices. But sentiment among industry sources remained mixed, with some participants hoping for additional information on the announced measures.
A trader source told Fastmarkets that import access was clearer now, but the steel sector should wait for additional clarification from the European Commission to fully understand the retroactive applicability of the proposed anti-dumping duties.
The source added that there would not be an immediate effect on the domestic HRC prices.
“Real demand is still weak and the European mills’ price policies, meant to reflect the new safeguard measures, would probably take some time,” the trader added.
A second trader source told Fastmarkets there was no ground for further price increases.
“The [announced] safeguard measures for HRC are not as harsh as expected, and real demand is still low,” the second trader said.
But the source added that mills might still try to increase June delivery HRC prices, speculating on limited supply, because of ArcelorMittal’s plans to idle its Dunkirk blast furnace for three months and the force majeure circumstances with Salzgitter.
A distributor source from the Benelux region confirmed that mills would try to rise HRC prices for June delivery by about €10-20 ($10.90-21.81) per tonne.
A leading European producer was rumored to offer such material at €670-680 per tonne delivered, which would net back to €660-670 per tonne ex-works.
But most offers of May-June delivery HRC were heard at €640-660 per tonne ex-works in Germany and the Benelux area, Fastmarkets understands.
Buyers’ estimations for the tradeable market level in Northern Europe were at €630-640 per tonne ex-works.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe at €636.67 per tonne on Monday, up by €0.67 per tonne from €636.00 per tonne on March 14.
The Northern European index was up by €4.79 per tonne week on week and by €31.67 per tonne month on month.
In Southern Europe, meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €620 per tonne on Monday, unchanged from March 14
The index was stable week on week but up by €25.00 per tonne month on month.
Offers of domestic HRC with delivery in the second quarter of the year were heard at €640 per tonne delivered, which would net back to €630 per tonne ex-works, Fastmarkets understands.
But buyers’ estimations for the tradeable market level were at €610-620 per tonne ex-works.
A third trader source based in Italy told Fastmarkets that domestic HRC prices were largely flat in the past two or three weeks. But according to the source, local suppliers would start pushing for higher prices soon.
The market for imported HRC to Europe remained largely quiet on Monday.
South Korea, Taiwan, and India refrained from making fresh offers to the European market, sources told Fastmarkets.
Indonesia was heard offering HRC to Italy at €540 per tonne CFR, and slightly higher to Northern Europe at €550-560 per tonne CFR.
Saudi Arabia was also heard offering HRC to Northern Europe at €600-605 per tonne CFR.
Julia Bolotova in Brussels contributed to this report.
EU proposes provisional HRC AD on three countries
The European Commission has proposed provisional anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports on certain countries, according to letter of pre-disclosure of preliminary findings dated 14 March, seen by Kallanish.
The letter states that the summary of duties is for informational purposes only and does not prejudge the Commission’s final decision.
Interested parties are given three working days to submit comments on the pre-disclosure findings.
India proposed not to impose any duties, while Egypt could face a duty of 15.6% including producer Ezz Steel Company.
Japan’s Nippon Steel Corporation and all other companies could be subject to a 33% duty, and Daido Steel and JFE Steel Corporation are both set at 32%, while Tokyo Steel faces a lower duty of 6.9%.
Vietnam’s Formosa Ha Tinh Steel Corporation and all other companies are facing to a 12.1% duty. However, Hoa Phat Dung Quat Steel Joint Company may be exempt from the duties.
“These are proposed duties. When finally published, we will understand if Hoa Phat gets zero and if they are retroactive,” a market participant commented.
The provisional duties apply once agreed to flat-rolled products of iron, non-alloy steel, or other alloy steel, whether or not in coils, including cut-to-length and narrow strip products, not further worked than hot-rolled, not clad, plated, or coated, originating in Egypt, Japan, and Vietnam.
These products are currently classified under CN codes 7208 10 00, 7208 25 00, 7208 26 00, 7208 27 00, 7208 36 00, 7208 37 00, 7208 38 00, 7208 39 00, 7208 40 00, 7208 52 10, 7208 52 99, 7208 53 10, 7208 53 90, 7208 54 00, 7211 13 00, 7211 14 00, 7211 19 00, ex 7225 19 10 (TARIC code 7225 19 10 90), 7225 30 90, ex 7225 40 60 (TARIC code 7225 40 60 90), 7225 40 90, ex 7226 19 10 (TARIC codes 7226 19 10 91, 7226 19 10 95), 7226 91 91, and 7226 91 99.
| Country | Company | Provisional anti- dumping duty (%) |
| Egypt | Ezz Steel Company | 15.6 |
| Egypt | All other companies | 15.6 |
| India | All companies | n/a |
| Japan | Nippon Steel Corporation | 33.0 |
| Japan | Tokyo Steel | 6.9 |
| Japan | Daido Steel | 32.0 |
| Japan | JFE Steel Corporation | 32.0 |
| Japan | All other companies | 33.0 |
| Vietnam | Formosa Ha Tinh Steel Corporation | 12.1 |
| Vietnam | All other companies* | 12.1 |
* It is proposed not to impose provisional anti-dumping duties on imports from Hoa Phat Dung Quat Steel Joint Company.
Elina Virchenko Turkey , Anna Low Singapore
EU proposes further 3-year exemption from steel safeguard measures, anti-dumping duties for Ukraine
Ukraine’s exemption from EU safeguard measures, initially granted in June 2022 after the Russian invasion, has been renewed twice already – in June 2023 and June 2024.
Unlike previous extensions, the new exemption will apply for three more years and, if approved by the European Council and Parliament, will come into force on June 6.
The Commission said it is also “currently working on a longer-term solution [to] provide economic certainty and a stable framework for trade to both Ukraine and the EU.”
Europe is Ukraine’s largest trading partner, with significant steel exports to countries such as Poland, Bulgaria, Italy, Romania, Greece, and Moldova.
The news of the proposed extension comes amid an ongoing review of EU safeguard measures, which was announced on December 17, 2024 and is expected to conclude by March 31.
Extreme protectionism to cause shortage if demand resumes: Assofermet
Potential EU anti-dumping duties on hot rolled coil from Japan, Vietnam, Egypt and India could result in a material shortage on the domestic market, according to a market note by Italian steel trade association Assofermet.
Paolo Sangoi, president of Assofermet’s distribution segment, warns that the competitiveness of Italian buyers and service centres is being impacted by the compromised opportunity to import coils from third countries, Kallanish notes.
Currently, the market is experiencing a period of stagnant consumption and low coil prices, with the distribution sector being the weakest element of the value chain due to low margins and profits.
Nevertheless, Sangoi contends that a material shortage may occur, potentially resembling the events of 2021 and 2022, if demand increases and consumption improves.
In the event of a resumption of consumption and the absence of imports, the shortage that has been observed in the past may resurface, resulting in significant challenges for buyers. Currently, EU steelmakers are reported to be open to negotiation.
The EU’s 15% import cap has already eliminated 1.6 million tonnes from the market for European buyers, Sangoi says.
Japan, Vietnam and Egypt have already been hit by the imposition of the 15% quota cap under the current EU safeguard measure without the need of further AD measures.
“The higher cost that importers will be forced to bear will inevitably be passed on to end customers, producers of components and finished steel products, undermining their already precarious level of competitiveness in international markets,” it says.
The consumption resumption is not anticipated to occur this year; however, the situation may begin to recover in the first quarter of 2025.
The price trend must change direction, as both producers and coil buyers have a genuine need for price increases throughout the entire value chain.
Nevertheless, this is impossible without a commitment to reduce output, according to Sangoi.
The EU initiated an anti-dumping investigation on imports of hot-rolled flat steel from Egypt, India, Japan, and Vietnam, according to the Official Journal of the European Union on 8 August.
The complaint was lodged on 24 June by the European Steel Association Eurofer.
The products under investigation include certain flat-rolled products of iron, non-alloy steel, or other alloy steel, including cut-to-length and narrow strip products, not beyond hot-rolled, clad, plated, or coated (see Kallanish 9 August).
The Chinese economic crisis has further exacerbated the lacklustre demand for service centres.
“Italy’s GDP remains positive; however, Germany’s stagnation is exceedingly concerning. The path of reducing the cost of money, which has been announced, does offer some optimism for the medium term, as it could potentially stimulate demand.”
According to Assofermet, the sales volume contraction in July was less severe than anticipated, with cold-rolled and coated products outperforming hot-rolled products.
However, August was adversely affected by the prolonged production shutdowns, which resulted in a decline in prices and the market was extremely weak in September with no real resumption after the summer break.
Natalia Capra France
EU introduces registration of all imports under investigation
The European Commission has decided to register all imports of products under anti-dumping or anti-subsidy investigations, including ongoing investigations. This will enable the retroactive collection of anti-dumping and countervailing duties if the legal conditions are met.
Reports suggest that the Commission may implement retroactive duties in its anti-dumping case, launched last month, against hot rolled coil imports from Egypt, India, Japan and Vietnam, Kallanish notes.
Retroactive collection is not automatic. That decision is taken only at the definitive stage of each investigation, the Commission points out.
The registration of imports is also designed to prevent sharp increases in imports of products under investigation ahead of the imposition of measures. It will simplify procedures and alleviate the burden placed on industry, while also providing the Commission with precise and accurate information about the source and quantities of imports of a product under investigation, as well as broader market developments, the Commission observes.
Until now, imports were usually registered only upon a justified request from EU industry. The latest decision is aimed at stepping up the use of trade defence instruments.
The registration will be carried out by Member-State customs authorities as directed by the European Commission via individual Implementing Regulations.
In an unprecedented move, the EU initiated the HRC AD case despite all four origins already being subject to EU safeguard quotas, with Egypt, Japan and Vietnam effectively having their quotas restricted only a month earlier. EU steel industry representatives are concerned about the survival of production in the bloc amid high import penetration and uncompetitive production costs.
Adam Smith Poland
India HRC export activity remains curbed
Indian hot and cold rolled coil export activity to Europe continues to be weak amid the anti-dumping investigation and summer holidays in the EU, Kallanish learns from sources.
In Europe, no new India-origin HRC offers have been heard this week, for the third consecutive week. The last heard offers were at around $640-650/tonne cfr Antwerp, or $590-600/t fob India, for S235 grade, August/September shipment.
In August, the European Commission launched an anti-dumping probe against HRC from India, Egypt, Japan, and Vietnam. Turkey also issued dumping margins on India-origin HRC, at 11.65% for Tata Steel and at 18.26% for other mills.
Indian traders are unsure of when demand and trading activity will recover in the EU. Sources are not anticipating any EU buying to happen until the ongoing AD investigation is concluded.
Earlier, market sources had estimated activity in the EU may improve from September following the summer holiday lull.
According to the EU’s TARIC portal, India’s third-quarter EU safeguard quota balance stands at 66,926 tonnes as of 19 August, meaning 78% of the available quota is exhausted.
No new Indian-origin CRC offers to Europe were heard this week either. The last heard offers were at around $725-740/t cfr Antwerp, or $675-690/t fob India, for DC01 grade, August/September shipment, with offer prices negotiable.
In the South Asian market, no new India-origin offers to Nepal or Bangladesh were heard this week. Last week, offers to Nepal were heard at $565-575/t cfr delivered up to Raxaul Road/the Nepal border. Sources say Nepal buyers were postponing buying by 3-7 days amid falling prices. Chinese offer prices to Nepal were heard by two traders at as low as $450/t fob China.
In the African market, no new offers were heard this week, with traders noting payment issues were a challenge in the region. The most recent, limited offers, only applicable for select buyers, were reported at $580-590/t cfr Djibouti for end-August/September shipment, LC at sight, base commercial grades.
India continued to remain out of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Asia and other export markets, with no new offers heard this week.
Last week, several new trade cases were announced involving India. Malaysia launched an AD probe into Indian flat steel and some other origins. India also launched a HRC probe against Vietnam, following Vietnam’s starting of an investigation on India- and China- origin HRC.
Following the multiple AD probes, sources expect India will focus on its domestic market, and is unlikely to look towards exporting to international markets. A source adds that, even if India plans to return to the GCC market, it will be very difficult to compete since Chinese prices are very low.
Suhita Poddar India
EU starts major hot-rolled flats anti-dumping investigation
The EU has initiated an anti-dumping investigation on imports of hot-rolled flat steel from Egypt, India, Japan, and Vietnam, according to the Official Journal of the European Union on Thursday 8 August.
The complaint was lodged on 24 June by the European Steel Association Eurofer, Kallanish notes.
The product under investigation includes certain flat-rolled products of iron, non-alloy steel, or other alloy steel, whether or not in coils, including cut-to-length and narrow strip products, not further worked than hot-rolled, and not clad, plated, or coated.
The product allegedly being dumped, originating in Egypt, India, Japan, and Vietnam, is currently classified under CN codes 7208 10 00, 7208 25 00, 7208 26 00, 7208 27 00, 7208 36 00, 7208 37 00, 7208 38 00, 7208 39 00, 7208 40 00, 7208 52 10, 7208 52 99, 7208 53 10, 7208 53 90, 7208 54 00, 7211 13 00, 7211 14 00, 7211 19 00, ex 7225 19 10 (TARIC code 7225 19 10 90), 7225 30 90, ex 7225 40 60 (TARIC code 7225 40 60 90), 7225 40 90, ex 7226 19 10 (TARIC codes 7226 19 10 91, 7226 19 10 95), 7226 91 91, and 7226 91 99.
The investigation of dumping and injury will cover the period from 1 April 2023 to 31 March 2024.
The examination of trends relevant to the assessment of injury will cover the period from 1 January 2021 to the end of the investigation period.
The investigation will be concluded within one year, with a maximum extension of 14 months. Provisional measures may be imposed in seven-eight months.
EC notifies Vietnam of HRC dumping complaint
The European Commission said it has notified Vietnam that it has received a complaint for the initiation of an anti-dumping investigation into imports of hot-rolled coils (HRC).
The commission did not identify who filed the complaint against Vietnam.
Should a probe be launched, the commission may decide to pick a sample of exporters to investigate because of the large number of producers from Vietnam.
Market participants have expected an EU investigation into Vietnamese HRC imports since volumes started picking up. Last year Vietnamese imports of HRC into the EU rose to 1.13mn t, from 400,000t in 2022. Vietnam has frequently been the lowest-priced supplier on the market, targeting primarily large buyers and pure commodity grade coils. Since the launch of the Argus HRC cif Italy origin differentials earlier this year, Vietnam has traded at a discount.
There is talk that an investigation into Vietnamese hot-dip galvanised (HDG) could be launched too, and a probe into HRC imports from major ‘other countries’ such as Taiwan, Japan and Egypt..
Vietnam itself has this week launched a dumping investigation on imports of HRC from China and India and previously into HDG from China.
By Lora Stoyanova
Ukraine issues AD duties on China-origin coated steel
Ukraine has imposed final anti-dumping measures on imported rolled carbon steel with coatings originating from China. The duties are set to take effect on 12 August, Kallanish notes.
The decision followed an investigation initiated by the Ukraine’s Interdepartmental Commission on International Trade in response to a complaint from local producer Modul-Ukraine.
The measures are aimed at addressing the issue of dumped imports from China, protecting Modul-Ukraine and Heavy Metal. The two producers collectively account for over 50% of the nation’s overall production of similar goods.
A definitive anti-dumping duty imposed on China-origin flat rolled products of carbon steel, clad with galvanic or other coating, classified in product subheadings 7210 70, 7210 90 and 7212 40. The duty has been applied for a period of five years.
The final anti-dumping rates were assigned: Zhejiang Huada New Materials Co, 42.53%; Shandong Hwafone New Materials Co, 30.76%; Shandong Iron & Steel Group Jiangsu Trading Co (for export of goods from Shandong Hwafone New Materials Co), 30.76%; Shandong Huijing Color Steel Co, 48.14%; Ebic Supply Chain Management Co (for export of goods from Shandong Huijing Color Steel Co), 48.14%; Welfull Group Co, 40.53%; Shandong Lantian New Material Technology Co, 41.36%; Shandong Castle International Trade Co (for export of goods from Shandong Lantian New Material Technology Co), 41.36%; Fareast Steel International Limited, 38.70%; Qingdao Honesteel Metal Co, 38.70%; Qingdao Jobofone International Trade Co, 38.70%; Shandong Boxing Huaye Industry and Trade Co, 38.70%. Other producers and exporters of goods originating from China will receive a rate of 48.14%.
Elina Virchenko UAE
UK suspends Iran, Russia HR flats anti-dumping duties
The UK has partially or completely suspended anti-dumping duties on flat steel from Iran and Russia in the case the product concerned is subjected to safeguard duty, once the applicable import quota has been surpassed, says the UK Trade Remedies Authority.
The trade remedies notice published on 2 August is effective immediately, Kallanish notes.
The anti-dumping duty on the steel goods will be charged only until the relevant import quota is exceeded. After that point, only the portion of the anti-dumping duty exceeding the safeguard duty along with the safeguard duty itself will be charged.
The hot-rolled flat iron, non-alloy, or other alloy steel goods subject to both anti-dumping and safeguard duty are usually imported into the UK under the following UK global tariff (UKGT) commodity codes: 72 08 10 00 00, 72 08 25 00 00, 72 08 26 00 00, 72 08 27 00 00, 72 08 36 00 00, 72 08 37 00 10, 72 08 37 00 90, 72 08 38 00 10, 72 08 38 00 90, 72 08 39 00 10, 72 08 39 00 90, 72 08 40 00 10, 72 08 40 00 90, 72 08 52 10 00, 72 08 52 99 00, 72 08 53 10 00, 72 08 53 90 00, 72 08 54 00 00, 72 11 13 00 11, 72 11 13 00 19, 72 11 14 00 10, 72 11 14 00 91, 72 11 14 00 95, 72 11 19 00 10, 72 11 19 00 91, 72 11 19 00 95, 72 25 19 10 90, 72 25 30 90 00, 72 25 40 90 00, 72 26 19 10 91, 72 26 19 10 95, 72 26 91 91 11, 72 26 91 91 19 and 72 26 91 99 00.
The new specific anti-dumping duty rates payable on hot-rolled steel originating in Iran or Russia vary upon exporter and origin.
In case of Iranian exporters, Mobarakeh Steel Company and others, there will be no anti-dumping duty after the suspension.
For Russian exporters, namely for NLMK and Severstal, there will be no anti-dumping duty after suspension, while for Magnitogorsk Iron Steel Works (MMK) and other Russian producers there will be an anti-dumping duty of £19.57/tonne ($24.90), or 8%. Before the suspension, Iranian exporters were levied with £48.12/t (17.9%).
For Russian exporters, the anti-dumping duty before suspension is £44.61 (15%) for NLMK, £14.73 (5.3%) for Severstal and £80.76 (33%) for MMK and others.
The public notice does not cover HR flat steel originating from Brazil or Ukraine, as it is excluded from the safeguard duty.
Elina Virchenko UAE
