German analyst expects weaker prices in October
Prices for most flat and long products should soften going forward, by 1-3% until the end of October, according to German analyst Peter Fertig of MBI Research.
From its current level, hot rolled coil will drop by 3%, Fertig says based on MBI Research’s quantitative forecast model in his latest report.
Kallanish learns this is somewhat more pessimistic than his previous report earlier in September, which assumed a drop of 1%. This also applies to plate, which was seen stable in the previous report, but now is expected to drop by 3%.
A positive trend is seen for cold-rolled and galvanized coil, but the potential for an increase has also diminished, from +3% to now +1%. As for the current prices in Germany, he notes €575/t ex-works ($675) for HRC, €657/t for CRC, and €680/t for hot-dip galvanized coil. In competition with the EU mills, he cites prices for Chinese material at $482/t for HRC, and $540/t for CRC, both FOB China.
For long products, Fertig predicts a drop by 3% for rebar and wire rod, and by 1% for merchant bar. For current domestic prices for long products, he suggests €599/t for rebar, down from €612/t previously and €671/t for wire rod, down from €684. This compares with Chinese export prices of $441/t for rebar, and $472/t for wire rod.
Christian Koehl Germany
Revista InfoAcero Septiembre 2025
En el siguiente enlace pueden acceder a la edición de Septiembre de nuestra revista Infoacero septiembre 2025
Destacamos a continuación algunos de sus contenidos:
- Opinión – D. José Horcajo- Junta Directiva UAHE
- Índice UAHE: Evolución precios de aprovisionamiento Septiembre 2024 – Julio 2025
- Siderurgia: Previsiones sector siderúrgico Eurofer (informe 3er trimestre).
- Información Asociativa: Conferencias UAHE Septiembre 2025
- Próximos eventos: 21º Forum Productos Siderúrgicos, 8 Octubre (Castelldefels) // Advanced Manufacturing // Green Steel Strategies
- Colaboración ASCEM –“Acero para el siglo XXI”- D. Joan Carles Codina– Secretario Jurídico ASCEM
- Colaboración RRHH – “La formación continua: pasado, presente y futuro” D. Agustín Barroso– Director RRHH HIEMESA
Heinz-Jürgen Büchner: Growth in construction industry to drive steel demand
During his presentation at the SteelOrbis 2025 Fall 2025 Conference & 93rd IREPAS Meeting held in Munich on September 28-30, Dr. Heinz-Jürgen Büchner, independent commodity consultant, highlighted trade tensions, sectoral growth prospects and the energy transition as defining factors for the global steel industry’s future.
Noting that growth in the construction industry and in population promise long-term growth for steel demand, Dr. Büchner said that high tariffs and energy costs, as well as geopolitical tensions, remain challenges for the steel industry.
Global economic outlook: IMF raises growth forecasts for 2025
In its forecast updated at the end of July 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it expects slightly higher growth in the global economy (+0.2 percent) for 2025 than in its April 2025 outlook, predicting three percent growth for this year and 3.1 percent for 2026. The main reason for the slightly improved outlook is primarily the slight reduction in US trade tariffs on its most important supplier countries. Dr. Büchner noted that Asia-Pacific continues to offer strong growth potential, particularly in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia, while Africa and the Middle East face uneven prospects due to geopolitical conflicts. South Africa, Canada, Brazil and especially Mexico are suffering particularly from the high US tariffs, while Turkey is affected especially by high inflation and weak consumer demand.
Automotive industry under pressure from US tariffs
Dr. Büchner noted that light vehicle production is expected to fall slightly to 89.2 million units in 2025. The US’ constant attacks on the global trade order through ever-new tariff threats are making planning increasingly difficult for all exporters, while there are significant differences in customs duties on imports of passenger cars, which are often influenced by the goodwill or political views of the US president.
Construction industry growth to drive long-term steel demand
According to the consulting firm NMSC, the global construction market volume is forecast to grow from $11.4 trillion in 2024 to $16.1 trillion by 2030. Population growth and infrastructure investment, particularly in renewable energy, will drive this expansion. The world’s population is set to reach 8.57 billion by 2030 and nearly 9.7 billion by 2050, driving long-term steel demand through urbanization and infrastructure needs. Noting that the European and German construction industries are currently struggling as a result of sharp increases in construction costs and the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war, Büchner said however, that construction volume growth in Europe will also take a turn for the better in 2025, before picking up speed again significantly in the following years.
Other industrial drivers
Regarding other industrial drivers of the steel industry, he forecast that the mechanical engineering, aircraft and defense industries will drive additional steel demand. Global mechanical engineering sales could reach €4.1 trillion by 2030, supported by digitalization and artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, Boeing forecasts the global civil aircraft fleet will double by 2042, further underpinning demand for steel.
Acciaierie d’Italia: 10 bids for acquisition of former Ilva facilities
The extraordinary commissioners of Taranto-based Italian steel producer Acciaierie d’Italia (formerly Ilva) have announced that as of September 26 10 bids have been received for the acquisition of the former Ilva facilities.
As previously reported by SteelOrbis, the deadline for submitting binding bids had been postponed from September 15 to September 26 to “allow bidders to complete the necessary documentation” and ensure transparency and equal treatment.
Among the bids received, two are for the entire complex (Bedrock Industries, and a consortium of Flacks Group and Steel Business Europe) and eight are for individual assets (Renexia (Toto Group), Industrie Metalli Cardinale (IMC), Marcegaglia, a consortium of Marcegaglia and Sideralba, CAR Srl, a consortium of Marcegaglia, Profilmec and Eusider, Eusider, and Trans Isole). In addition to these, a further bid was received “from a political entity that does not meet the criteria of the tender”. Any proposals submitted after September 26 will only be evaluated if they are particularly advantageous.
Acciaierie d’Italia reports that the special commissioners will take the necessary time to review all bids received, “with particular regard to employment aspects, decarbonization, and the size of investments, in order to ensure the sustainable development of the plants and maximum protection for the workers involved”.
IREPAS Meeting: 2025 set to be record year for China’s steel exports
During his presentation at the SteelOrbis 2025 Fall Conference & 93rd IREPAS Meeting held in Munich on September 28-30, Alexander Gordienko, export director of Spain’s CELSA Group, started off by underlining that in July this year the IMF forecasts a 3.0 percent global GDP growth compared to 3.3 percent growth in 2024, indicating a loss of potential steel demand amounting to 25 million mt.
He added that emerging Asian countries are expected to see a growth of more than five percent, pointing out that 88 percent of the growth is coming from outside of China, showing that a lot of developing countries are doing well economically.
Looking at construction, Mr. Gordienko said that in the EU the construction sector is recovering this year, but only in infrastructure, with housing starts blocked by bureaucracy, while in the US as well, housing starts are down, by 19 percent since 2019, while infrastructure spending increased by 14 percent over the same period. In China, no hope of a recovery is on the horizon, with steel demand from housing decreasing by 45 percent compared to 2019.
Based on worldsteel’s August 2025 figures, the CELSA official pointed out that India is emerging as the country which has increased its steel production the most, with an increase of more than 10 percent year on year in the January-August period. India is producing as much as Japan and Russia combined, he noted. On the other hand, in the same period MENA and Southeast Asian countries also posted increases in steel production.
Gordienko also talked about Chinese steel exports as “the elephant in the room”, stating that as of July 2025 Chinese steel exports increased by 10 percent year on year, while China’s rebar and wire rod exports rose by 50 percent and its semi-finished steel exports surged by 310 percent, both year on year. He underlined that 2025 will be a record year for China’s steel exports, certainly exceeding 2015-16 levels.
Stagnant demand and mounting trade tensions
Comparing 2020 and 2025, long steel consumption decreased by nine percent and “as more and more capacity comes online, mills will have to cut costs so volumes will not be going up soon.” Gordienko said. Looking at capacity utilization rates, he indicated that, with 165 million mt of EAF capacity expected to come online, the capacity utilization rate will drop to 73.1 percent in 2027. He also explained that every percentage point decline means 18 million mt of capacity being idled, which is equal to Spain’s annual production. Compared to 2019, rebar consumption in 2025 increased by one percent, while wire rod consumption decreased by three percent and steel section consumption rose by four percent. Regarding rebar consumption, he pointed out that India will overtake the EU in 2026.
Commenting on prices, the CELSA official said that prices do not change much, noting that, in comparison with September 2024, the market remains incredibly stable and, looking at the spread between scrap and rebar, he said that it remains below $200/mt, signaling weak demand.
Turning at the end of his presentation to the challenges facing the market, Gordienko said that the same old headaches such as trade wars, weak demand, Chinese exports and CBAM remain but they are becoming larger. With more than 400 trade cases so far in 2025, the tariff situation is changing almost every week, steel exports keep flooding the market, with Chinese mills continuing to operate despite the weak demand and searching for buyers in overseas markets. In 2025, China will register a trade surplus of $1.2 trillion. Regarding CBAM, Gordienko said he expects the new tax will be around €60-90/mt and that CBAM will be finally adopted in other parts of the world as well.
AI data centers emerge as a surprising new steel consumer
Finally, touching upon a new, interesting issue, Gordienko pointed out that in the US the digital economy is emerging as a major steel consumer, with more steel set to be used to house AI than humans in the US. AI data centers will require 1.5 million mt of steel compared to 1.3 million mt required for residential buildings. Moreover, data center demand is cyclical, it does not depend on interest rates as the construction industry does. As it is built on national soil, it gives additional protection to local mills. “For every picture generated by AI means 0.2 grams of steel demand. It is less than half a paperclip, but billions of prompts turn into vessel loads of steel,” he noted.
Sluggish demand keeps European HRC market at standstill; lack of clarity on CBAM, safeguards cloud outlook
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe was €577.92 ($676) per tonne on Monday, up by €0.21 per tonne from €577.71 per tonne on September 26.
The Northern European index was up by €0.42 per tonne week on week but down by €0.41 per tonne month on month.
In Germany and the Benelux area, buyers estimated achievable prices at no higher than €570-580 per tonne ex-works on Monday – in line with recent deals.
German mills were offering coil with lead times of five to six weeks around €590-600 per tonne delivered (€580-590 per tonne ex-works).
In the Benelux area, offers were reported at €590-610 per tonne ex-works from integrated mills for November and December delivery and at €560-570 per tonne ex-works from a re-roller.
Trading remained sluggish in the region, however.
Buyer sources told Fastmarkets they had no immediate need to buy HRC and were holding off until there was greater clarity regarding CBAM regulations and upcoming steel safeguard measures.
One source suggested the market direction will become clearer during the Blechexpo trade fair in Stuttgart, Germany, on October 21-24.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €550.63 per tonne ex-works on Monday, unchanged from September 26.
The Italian index was up by €0.63 per tonne week on week and up by €8.96 per tonne month on month.
Local participants described the Italian HRC market as “stable”, with prices “not moving anywhere yet.”
Mills’ attempts to push domestic HRC prices up to 570-580 per tonne ex-works have been largely unsuccessful so far, according to sources.
Buyers claimed to be well-booked for third and fourth quarters of 2025, “in line with sluggish end-user demand” and therefore were not chasing for tonnages, a distributor source said.
Local and European mills were able to offer November-delivery coil.
“Mills in Europe need to sell; [they are] not desperate for orders yet, however. So, we have a standstill in the market,” a buyer in Italy said.
Buying appetite for imported coil was also limited due to the uncertainty surrounding CBAM and new trade measures.
Smaller and medium-sized buyers told Fastmarkets they were avoiding booking coil overseas due to mounting risks.
“We are not in the market to buy Asian HRC because of CBAM. And also, from other customers I’ve heard they are not buying new imports because of CBAM,” a second buyer said.
“Turkey can be a viable option because they can deliver HRC in December, but [safeguards] quotas remain a risk. Third-quarter allocations were used up quickly; I believe the same will happen with October-December tonnages,” the second buyer added.
“Because of unclear CBAM rules we basically stopped at this moment the import activities,” a third buyer said.
Offers from Turkey were reported around €520-530 per tonne CFR, including the EU anti-dumping duty, for December arrival.
From India, offers were reported at €520-530 per tonne CFR for November-shipment coil.
At the same time, offers from Indonesia and Algeria were heard at €490-500 per tonne CFR.
