The anti-dumping investigation was started after the European steel association Eurofer lodged a complaint last June on behalf of European producers, alleging that HRC imports from four countries — India, Japan, Egypt and Vietnam — are being dumped and have been causing material injury to the European steel industry, Fastmarkets reported.
The pre-disclosure document, revealing proposed provisional duties for each origin, was made available on March 14. Provisional duties are set to be imposed as of April 7.
The AD probe is expected to be conducted by early October, with definitive measures to follow.
In the meantime, the highest duties were proposed for Japanese suppliers: 32% for JFE Steel Corporation and Daido Steel Co., Ltd, and 33% for Nippon Steel Corporation and all other companies — apart from Tokyo Steel, which got a relatively low duty of 6.9%.
For Egypt, the provisional duty rate for Ezz Steel and all other companies was set at 15.6%.
For Vietnam, provisional duties were set at 12.1% for Formosa Ha Tinh Steel Corporation and all other companies apart from Hoa Phat Dung Quat Steel Joint Company — no duty was proposed on its imports.
And, surprisingly, no provisional duties were suggested for Indian companies.
These four countries altogether supplied 3.9 million tonnes of HRC to the EU in 2024, accounting for 41.2% of total HRC imports to the bloc, Global Trade Tracker stats showed.
Market sources had split views on the potential market effect.
Notably, several sources suggested that safeguard caps, in combination with the duties, will limit imports to the EU, making overseas bookings increasingly risky for EU buyers.
Adjustments to steel safeguard measures were made available on Tuesday March 11.
For HRC, the cap per country over the tariff rate quota (TRQ) volume initially available in each quarter has been reduced from 15%, originally proposed in July, to 13%.
On top of that, quarterly quota allocations have also been reduced. For example, for India, which has an individual quarterly quota, the allocation for April-June 2025 was cut by 24.6%. And for “other countries” — under which Egypt, Vietnam and Japan fall — the allocation was cut by 8.4%.
“It’s like gambling these days; when you book HRC from overseas mills, you don’t know how much it’s going to cost you in the end,” one buyer said.
Other sources said that the effect will be limited for some origins because, for example, Vietnamese material “will be manageable even with a duty, just like Turkish HRC is now,” a trader in Italy said.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil, import, cfr main port Northern Europe was €560-580 per tonne on March 14, stable week on week.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe at €636.19 per tonne on March 14, up by €0.10 per tonne from €636.09 per tonne on March 13.
The Northern European index was up by €5.25 per tonne week on week and by €32.86 per tonne month on month.
