CBAM, safeguard to impact EU longs
The implementation of the new safeguard measure and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will have a positive impact on the European long steel market. Certain product imports, particularly wire rod and rebar, are projected to decline sharply in the new year, supporting prices, two European long steelmaking sources tell Kallanish.
In 2026, the market will continue to be boosted by several infrastructure projects funded by the post-pandemic European recovery fund. However, a French buyer notes that import patterns vary significantly between countries. While some nations rely more heavily on imports due to their geographical positions, such as Poland and the Baltic countries, others import limited volumes of rebar but higher quantities of wire rod, where quotas are already in effect. In France and Italy, market competition remains primarily among European producers.
Overall, long steel prices this month remain largely stable compared to October, though persistently frequent but small order volumes continue to weigh on sentiment. In France, prices have declined by approximately €10/tonne ($11.52/t), with similar adjustments observed in other countries depending on product.
Demand for merchant bar shows no signs of recovery, while activity for sections, rebar, and wire rod remains limited. Italian and German domestic merchant bar prices remain high, at around €650-660/t ex-works, including size extras.
Sources report that Spanish material in Italy is priced roughly €20/t lower, and in southern regions, lower-priced Turkish merchant bar is rumoured to have a base price close to €200/t. In France, merchant bar prices have fallen under pressure from cheaper Spanish material and are now at €20-30/t below Italian domestic levels.
Sections demand remains mostly stable, steelmaking sources and agents confirm. After a slow October, a modest increase in consumption is expected by mid- or late November ahead of the year-end period. In Italy and France, first-category sections are averaging at €710-730/t ex-works, while in Germany prices are hovering around €740-750/t delivered for grade S235 sections. One source notes that Germany is currently absorbing significantly lower import volumes from other European producers, including Italy.
Delivered rebar prices from western European domestic mills, including an average size extra of €265/t, range between €590-615/t in Germany. In Italy, values are lower, at approximately €520-530/t ex-works; however, Italian producers are now seeking price increases, aiming to lift rebar base levels to around €300/t ex-works.
The European wire rod market is described as “disastrous”, marked by a structural decline in consumption and falling prices across both northern and southern Europe. Prices for drawing-quality wire rod currently average at around €570/t delivered. A steelmaking source expresses a negative outlook on overall market conditions. Another tells Kallanish longs price hikes are being considered across Europe due to the current high costs of production.
Natalia Capra France
European steel HRC market remains quiet, awaiting January revival
A buyer source, however, said that mills could deliberately keep some December volumes in stock until January because of an expected price increase connected with the introduction of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in January 2026.
Import regulatory measures were now considered the only driver for growth of local prices, with actual demand leaving much to be desired.
In Northern Europe, January delivery offers varied within the range of €620-650 ($716-751) per tonne ex-works, with the exception of a re-roller in the Benelux area, which offered January-rolling coil at €600 per tonne ex-works.
Estimates of workable prices were heard at €600-620 per tonne ex-works, but there have been few bookings so far, with market sources saying that the active phase will come in several weeks’ time. This price compared with €590 per tonne in the most recent sales of December-delivery cargoes.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, was €610.00 ($704.23) per tonne on November 10, up from €606.67 per tonne on November 7.
The index was up by €8.75 per tonne week on week, and up by €32.50 per tonne month on month.
In Italy, the situation was similar with few volumes left for December.
Coil for January delivery was offered at €615-620 per tonne ex-works with estimates of workable prices being closer to €600 per tonne ex-works. No January bookings were heard on November 10, however.
Most recent sales of December-delivery coil were heard within the range of €580-590 per tonne ex-works.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, was calculated at €596.25 per tonne on Monday, up by €0.25 per tonne from €596.00 per tonne on Friday.
The index was up by €1.25 per tonne week on week, and up by €51.25 per tonne month on month.
ACEA: CBAM implementation at risk amid regulatory delays
The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) has warned that with just two months remaining before the final implementation phase of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026, the continued absence of key legislation is creating serious uncertainty.
In a statement issued in Brussels, the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) said that automotive producers have already devoted significant resources to CBAM reporting and are preparing to fully comply once the mechanism enters into force. However, the association warned that with CBAM charges due to apply from January 2026, many critical implementation details remain unknown, creating growing concern across the sector.
According to ACEA, the automotive industry is among the sectors most affected by CBAM. European manufacturers import large volumes of steel and aluminium, and accurate reporting of embedded carbon emissions in these materials is essential for the mechanism’s proper functioning.
ACEA underlined that the European Commission has yet to publish guidance on key elements such as emission calculation methodologies, default values, the sale and repurchase of CBAM certificates, and the role of accredited verifiers.
ACEA Director General Sigrid de Vries stated: “Automakers are committed to making CBAM work and have already invested heavily in compliance operations. But the fact that such critical aspects remain unclear makes a smooth implementation on 1 January 2026 almost impossible. The Commission must urgently publish the missing texts and provide flexibility for businesses in the coming year.”
European HRC mills persist with price hikes, but buyers cautious amid CBAM and import market disorder
The European hot rolled coil (HRC) market has remained in a state of limbo, with both buyers and sellers continuing to assess the direction of future price trends. Many market participants have taken a cautious, wait-and-see stance, keeping a close eye on the timing and details of the roll-out of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and upcoming EU safeguard measures, before making decisions on future bookings.
Specifically, local mills in northern Europe are reported to be targeting €620-640/mt ex-works for new orders for December deliveries, up by €10/mt on the lower end of the range week on week, while some are even targeting €640/mt ex-works for delivery in January. However, the tradable price levels have been estimated at €580-590/mt ex-works in the north of Europe, the same as last week, with a few deals reported to have been signed at the above levels this week.
Meanwhile, in Italy, HRC offers from mills have been estimated at €600-610/mt ex-works for December delivery, against €590-610/mt ex-works last week, while the tradable price level has settled at €570-580/mt ex-works, against €560-580/mt ex-works last week. Besides, a few transactions have been reported at €600-610/mt delivered this week, according to sources.
“European HRC producers have continued to gradually push for higher prices for first quarter volumes. Buyers, however, have questioned the scale and sustainability of these increases, given the persistent lack of real demand in the market,” a market insider told SteelOrbis.
At the same time, the import segment has remained disorganized, with offers arriving under mixed terms – some including CBAM costs, others excluding them, and with pricing presented on varying bases such as CFR or even DDP. This inconsistency has made it difficult for market participants to identify any firm or reliable indicative price level, adding further uncertainty to an already fragile market environment.
More specifically, according to market insiders, this week an ex-Indonesia HRC deal has been signed in Spain for 20,000 mt at $582/mt DDP, or around €502/mt DDP. Besides, another ex-Indonesia HRC deal is reported to have been signed in Italy for 40,000 mt at €465-470/mt CFR, without CBAM, but, according to a source, “If this deal is true, the buyer will not take any risk and CBAM will be paid by the seller at the end.”
Meanwhile, offers for ex-India HRC without CBAM have been heard at $575/mt CFR, or around €495/mt CFR. However, more Indian offers have been also voiced with partial CBAM payment at around €530/mt CFR southern Europe. Furthermore, offers from Turkey have been voiced at around $635-640/mt CFR, or around €547-552/mt CFR, including duty and CBAM.
Besides, according to sources, offers for ex-Thailand HRC have been voiced at €565/mt CFR, mainly the same as last week, while offers for ex-Algeria HRC have been heard at around €490/mt CFR, without CBAM.
$1 = €0.86
EU adopts CBAM amendment introducing 50-mt exemption and simplified reporting
The European Parliament and the Council of the European Union have announced that they have adopted Regulation (EU) 2025/2083, amending the original CBAM Regulation (EU) 2023/956.
The new law aims to simplify, clarify, and strengthen the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) ahead of its full enforcement on January 1, 2026.
It reflects lessons learned during the transitional phase (October 2023-December 2025) and introduces procedural and technical adjustments to improve administrative efficiency.
50-mt “de minimis” exemption
A new mass-based threshold exempts importers with total annual imports of 50 mt or less of goods covered under Annex I, including iron and steel, aluminum, fertilizers, and cement, from CBAM reporting, declaration, and certificate purchase obligations.
This “de minimis exemption” relieves small traders of compliance burdens while maintaining 99 percent coverage of embedded emissions under CBAM.
Imports of electricity and hydrogen are excluded due to their distinct trade and emissions profiles.
Declarant obligations and compliance
Importers anticipating exceeding the 50-mt threshold must apply for authorized CBAM declarant status before crossing the limit. Applications submitted by March 31, 2026, will allow continued imports until approval is granted. Indirect customs representatives acting for importers must also be registered as declarants.
Authorized declarants will file their first annual CBAM declaration by September 30, 2027, covering 2026 imports. Declarations must include verified data on import volumes, embedded emissions, and carbon prices paid abroad.
Alignment with EU ETS and default values
The amendment aligns CBAM emission boundaries with those of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), excluding emissions from downstream finishing processes not covered by the ETS.
When reliable third-country data is lacking, default values will reflect the average emission intensity of the ten most carbon-intensive exporting countries, minimizing the risk of carbon leakage.
Declarants may reduce the number of certificates surrendered if they prove payment of a carbon price in the country of origin, supported by independent certification and proof of payment.
From 2027, the European Commission may publish default carbon prices for third countries in €/ton CO₂, based on verified public data and official submissions.
Penalties, monitoring and certificate rules
Importers exceeding the 50-mt limit without authorization will face financial penalties, though payment of the fine will discharge further obligations for that year. Penalties for authorized declarants failing to surrender certificates will remain aligned with the EU ETS excess emissions penalty, ensuring consistency and deterrence.
Member states will begin selling CBAM certificates in 2027 for emissions linked to 2026 imports. Prices will mirror the average 2026 EU ETS allowance prices, while declarants must hold CBAM certificates equal to at least 50 percent of estimated annual emissions each quarter, reduced from the previous 80 percent requirement.
The European Commission and national authorities will monitor import flows to prevent circumvention practices such as shipment splitting and may revise the exemption threshold via delegated acts if emissions or trade volumes shift significantly.
EU and UK prepare temporary CBAM exemption deal to protect cross-channel trade
The European Union and the United Kingdom are preparing to finalize a temporary Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) exemption deal that would spare British exporters from paying the EU’s carbon border tax during 2026, according to the Guardian newspaper. Officials are targeting late spring of that year, the planned date for the next EU-UK summit, for formal signature of the agreement.
The EU’s CBAM is set to enter into force on January 1, 2026, covering carbon-intensive imports such as steel, glass and fertilizers. Its objective is to curb carbon leakage and ensure fair competition for EU producers.
The UK, meanwhile, plans to introduce its own carbon border tax in 2027, leaving a one-year regulatory gap that has raised concerns among businesses about unequal treatment and potential market distortions.
The planned exemption aims to temporarily shield British exporters from additional costs during the interim period until both carbon pricing systems are fully aligned. For sectors such as steel and manufacturing, which are deeply integrated with EU supply chains, the deal is expected to provide regulatory certainty and cost relief.
Industry representatives had warned that, without such an exemption, UK consumers could face higher prices, and the British market might see an influx of cheaper, carbon-intensive steel, particularly from China, redirected away from the EU.
The temporary CBAM deal is emerging in the context of a broader political rapprochement between London and Brussels. At the May 2025 EU-UK summit, Prime Minister Keir Starmer and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed to link the UK and EU emissions trading systems and signed a formal defense and security pact.
Business groups have broadly welcomed the CBAM exemption talks. Naomi Smith, CEO of Best for Britain, emphasized that divergence between EU and UK carbon pricing regimes could cost jobs and investment, making alignment a priority for both sides.
European stainless steel prices steady amid uncertainty over safeguard review, CBAM
Market participants reported limited activity, with mills struggling to push through price increases.
“At the moment, we’re not seeing any notable changes, neither in pricing nor in demand,” a distributor in Italy said. “While the mills continue to push for increases, their efforts haven’t gained traction so far.
“Prices remain under pressure and, in some cases, reflect the urgency of sellers needing liquidity, particularly those without their own financial stock,” the distributor added.
Fastmarkets’ monthly price assessment for stainless steel cold-rolled sheet, 2mm, grade 304, transaction domestic, delivered North Europe, was €2,300-2,400 ($2,699-2,816) per tonne on Friday October 3, unchanged month-on-month.
The corresponding price for grade 316 was slightly higher month on month, restoring the industry-standard premium over grade 304 at €1,300 per tonne, in line with higher alloy surcharge costs.
Fastmarkets’ monthly price assessment for stainless steel cold-rolled sheet, 2mm, grade 316, transaction domestic, delivered North Europe, was €3,600-3,700 ($4,225-4,342) per tonne on Friday, widening upwards from €3,600-3,650 per tonne a month earlier.
Fastmarkets’ monthly assessment for stainless steel cold-rolled sheet 316 2mm alloy surcharge domestic, Europe was €3,187-3,283 per tonne on October 3, up by €60-70 per tonne from €3,127-3,213 per tonne on September 5.
Stainless steel producers reported lead times of four to five weeks.
Inventory levels remain high in Italy and Poland, according to a producer in the south of Europe, while levels in the central and western regions are closer to normal.
“[Offer] prices for November delivery [are] increasing [by] about €20 per tonne,” the producer said.
But other market participants said that the willingness of some mills to raise their prices had not translated into actual transactions, with concluded business continuing to reflect current market levels.
“We hear every month that mills want to increase prices by €20 per tonne, but it never happens. Everyone is stocking up imported material ahead of 2026 due to CBAM and new safeguard [measures],” a distributor in Spain said.
The distributor added that some buyers were avoiding imports scheduled to arrive after January 2026, when CBAM is due to take effect.
The European Commission is expected to publish a legal proposal on new trade measures to replace existing safeguards on Tuesday October 7. According to sources, the proposal could include halving duty-free import allowances and raising out-of-quota tariffs to as much as 50%.
EC promises provisional CBAM benchmarks amid pressure from industry
The European Commission is working to provide provisional benchmarks for its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism ahead of the final adoption of CBAM benchmarks in early 2026, an EC official told Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.
“We strive to ensure that a final list of CBAM benchmarks will be available as soon as possible. Concretely, we are indeed expecting that they will only be adopted in early 2026,” the commission official said. “However, the commission is working towards providing as soon as possible additional guidance to stakeholders through provisional benchmarks.”
The official declined to provide further details on how such provisional benchmarks would function.
The move comes as pressure builds on the EC to provide more details around emissions calculations, default values and carbon costs. Businesses are anxiously waiting for these details to help importers estimate the costs of CBAM on their trade and its impact on global supply chains.
The benchmark value is a reference value used to calculate the embedded emissions of imported goods and determine the cost of CBAM certificates. It is derived from the average greenhouse gas emissions of the 10% most efficient installations in the EU for that product.
Industry reaction
The CBAM benchmarks will be based on the respective EU Emissions Trading System benchmarks to adequately mirror the bloc’s carbon market.
“In order to adequately mirror the EU ETS, the CBAM benchmarks will be based on the respective ETS benchmarks. Currently, these ETS benchmarks are being updated for the period 2026-2030,” the official added.
However, industry groups have expressed skepticism about provisional benchmarks. The European Association of Non-Integrated Metal Importers and Distributors said it would be “rather surprised if the commission intended to publish provisional benchmark values,” noting that the EC had previously confirmed CBAM benchmarks would only be available in early 2026.
“In the meantime, the commission is working on the methodology that will ensure CBAM benchmarks are aligned with the ETS benchmarks, and we expect this methodology to be shared with stakeholders,” EURANMI said in a statement to Platts. “But to our understanding, this will not include provisional or indicative benchmark values.”
CBAM is in a transitional phase, requiring importers to report emissions without financial penalties. The mechanism enters its definitive phase on Jan. 1, 2026, with companies liable for their emissions. This is expected to have significant implications for carbon-intensive industries.
CBAM currently covers only sectors including cement, iron and steel, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity and hydrogen.
Platts assessed EU Allowances for December 2025 at Eur79.28/mtCO2e ($92.43/mtCO2e) on Oct. 3.
The aim of CBAM is to level the playing field for EU companies, as most exporting countries either do not have a carbon price as high as that of the EU ETS or lack a price on emissions altogether.
Official CBAM benchmarks not confirmed until 2026
Key benchmarks for calculating specific steel import cost exposures under the upcoming fiscal stage of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will likely not be officially unveiled until the first quarter of 2026, McCloskey learns from private European Commission correspondence.
In a letter from Gerassimos Thomas, director-general for the Taxation and Customs Union of the European Commission, the Commission representative outlines that CBAM benchmarks “will be based on the respective [European Union Emissions Trading System] benchmarks,” which “are being updated for the period 2026-2030.” The letter is dated from the start of this week and was seen by McCloskey on 1 October.
Gerassimos said that he expects that the benchmarks for the EU’s carbon market “will only be adopted in early 2026. This means that a final list of CBAM benchmarks may only be available at that moment.”
Benchmarks for the EU carbon market track free allowance allocation to the different installations covered by the scheme to prevent carbon leakage, or companies leaving the European Union to set up operations in jurisdictions without a carbon pricing mechanism. As the CBAM is phased in from 2026 to 2034, installations across Europe will gradually receive fewer and fewer free carbon allowances until these are phased out entirely by 2034.
European steel importers have been operating under the expectation that the CBAM benchmarks – which are multiplied against the free allocation-tracking CBAM factor and then deducted from the total embedded emissions – would be presented before the end of this year. This was premised upon the European Commission’s Steel and Metals Action Plan, recent consultations on the technical aspects of CBAM, and its commitment to releasing implementing acts on the benchmark rules in the fourth quarter.
Importantly however, the Commission’s commitment to clarifying the rules defining the benchmarks is not necessarily a commitment to releasing the specific values themselves, and could be limited to outlining correspondence between the two systems.
Gerassimos’ letter aligns with McCloskey’s previously reported response from European Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra to Filip Turek – a Czech member of the European Parliament – in early September about the ETS-CBAM benchmark codependence, undermining European steel importers’ expectations that official CBAM benchmarks would be available before 2026
As a core part of the formula for calculating the extent of embedded emissions liable to CBAM-covered imports like steel, importers require these ETS-CBAM benchmark values to forecast their specific and itemized cost exposure to the carbon leakage mechanism, and manage their finances on current import purchases.
Steel importers have already been deterred from bringing material into Europe on existing exposure uncertainties, avoiding material with lead times beyond the start of 2026, and in some cases signaling a preference to clear material in Q4 even if subject to out-of-quota duties of 25%.
If release of the benchmarks is pushed further into Q1, then importers could be facing the same barriers of uncertainty for another quota period – either pushing import purchases back further, or taking another hit on out-of-quota duties.
As the European Commission is also currently preparing its long-term replacement for the EU’s steel safeguard system, with strong speculations and steelmaker lobbying for an intensification of out-of-quota duties to 50% and possible implementation from January, the European import market could see an even heavier CBAM burden than it is already shouldering.
McCloskey has wide-ranging databases on upcoming green steel projects worldwide in our Green Steel Profiles, but even if importers can source the cleanest steel globally for European import, they cannot truly know the opportunities of capitalisation without clarification on CBAM and its calculation benchmarks.
Benjamin Steven Journalist, Steel
Sluggish demand keeps European HRC market at standstill; lack of clarity on CBAM, safeguards cloud outlook
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe was €577.92 ($676) per tonne on Monday, up by €0.21 per tonne from €577.71 per tonne on September 26.
The Northern European index was up by €0.42 per tonne week on week but down by €0.41 per tonne month on month.
In Germany and the Benelux area, buyers estimated achievable prices at no higher than €570-580 per tonne ex-works on Monday – in line with recent deals.
German mills were offering coil with lead times of five to six weeks around €590-600 per tonne delivered (€580-590 per tonne ex-works).
In the Benelux area, offers were reported at €590-610 per tonne ex-works from integrated mills for November and December delivery and at €560-570 per tonne ex-works from a re-roller.
Trading remained sluggish in the region, however.
Buyer sources told Fastmarkets they had no immediate need to buy HRC and were holding off until there was greater clarity regarding CBAM regulations and upcoming steel safeguard measures.
One source suggested the market direction will become clearer during the Blechexpo trade fair in Stuttgart, Germany, on October 21-24.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €550.63 per tonne ex-works on Monday, unchanged from September 26.
The Italian index was up by €0.63 per tonne week on week and up by €8.96 per tonne month on month.
Local participants described the Italian HRC market as “stable”, with prices “not moving anywhere yet.”
Mills’ attempts to push domestic HRC prices up to 570-580 per tonne ex-works have been largely unsuccessful so far, according to sources.
Buyers claimed to be well-booked for third and fourth quarters of 2025, “in line with sluggish end-user demand” and therefore were not chasing for tonnages, a distributor source said.
Local and European mills were able to offer November-delivery coil.
“Mills in Europe need to sell; [they are] not desperate for orders yet, however. So, we have a standstill in the market,” a buyer in Italy said.
Buying appetite for imported coil was also limited due to the uncertainty surrounding CBAM and new trade measures.
Smaller and medium-sized buyers told Fastmarkets they were avoiding booking coil overseas due to mounting risks.
“We are not in the market to buy Asian HRC because of CBAM. And also, from other customers I’ve heard they are not buying new imports because of CBAM,” a second buyer said.
“Turkey can be a viable option because they can deliver HRC in December, but [safeguards] quotas remain a risk. Third-quarter allocations were used up quickly; I believe the same will happen with October-December tonnages,” the second buyer added.
“Because of unclear CBAM rules we basically stopped at this moment the import activities,” a third buyer said.
Offers from Turkey were reported around €520-530 per tonne CFR, including the EU anti-dumping duty, for December arrival.
From India, offers were reported at €520-530 per tonne CFR for November-shipment coil.
At the same time, offers from Indonesia and Algeria were heard at €490-500 per tonne CFR.