Market unlikely to recover before H2 2025
Panelists at Kallanish Flat Steel 2024 in Istanbul expressed mostly a bearish outlook for the market until at least the second half of next year.
Tayfun İşeri, chairman of Turkey’s Flat Steel Product Exporters, Importers and Manufacturers Association (YİSAD), emphasised he is an optimist but is pessimistic about the market outlook for the first time.
The steel industry has been “hectic” for the past two years, he noted at last week’s event. Global trade has regionalised and the WTO has lost its respect. The Russia-Ukraine war, the Turkey earthquake and the Palestine-Israel conflict, as well as high interest rates and inflation have impacted steel demand and will continue to do so. Chinese exports, which will exceed 100 million tonnes before the end of 2024, pose a threat to steel prices and production in 2025, İşeri noted.
Selçuk Yılmaz, speaking at his first conference since becoming Yıldız Demir Çelik general manager last month, said Turkey’s imposition of a 6.1-43.31% dumping duty on HRC imports from India, China, Japan and Russia has already impacted domestic HRC pricing. Next year, there may be an anti dumping investigation into galvanizing, cold rolled and pre-painted steel imports in Turkey, he added. Operating profits are decreasing amid high energy costs, while production capacities are rising.
Kallanish Asia editor Tomas Gutierrez stated that Chinese steel demand will fall consistently in the foreseeable future, meaning China will need to export its surplus. Noting that overall fundamentals are weak and the recently announced stimulus packages are insufficient to support the steel industry, Gutierrez pointed out that economic confidence is required to trigger a demand recovery.
Stemcor managing director Dick Sands said construction has been hit by high interest rates, while global sentiment is very negative today. “The only thing that can move mountains is sentiment. We need positive sentiment,” he affirmed. Although wars are having a negative impact on steel demand at present, once they end, this will boost demand.
Trade cases are likely to increase on Chinese material, Sands continued, adding that he is no longer confident China can manage its economy.
GMK Center chief executive Stanislav Zinchenko stated that although he expected 1.4% annual growth next year, which would be good for the European economy, European steel demand is unlikely to improve in the next six months. The market is currently at the bottom of the demand cycle, with demand to return by 2026-2028.
The Indian market has been stagnant for almost a year. “We failed to see the expected infrastructure investment projects after the [Indian] election. The biggest challenge for India is exports which decreased by 50% in the nine months this year, while imports grew 60% … India should decide about protection measures to compensate for export losses and stimulate its local market,” Zinchenko concluded.
EUROMETAL members expect stable steel prices in 4Q
Steel distributors’ association EUROMETAL’s inaugural market sentiment survey shows that members expect fourth-quarter steel prices to remain generally stable, despite below-average activity in the third quarter.
Respondents across different European markets that are exposed to different end-use sectors all agreed that current market activity is below average. Most major markets expect final-quarter activity to remain below average, but the outlook for the UK and Ireland, the Balkans and the Visegrad region is slightly more optimistic, with average or stable activity anticipated. Yet prices in all geographical markets are forecast as stable, except for Iberia, where respondents see higher prices in the fourth quarter.
Most major end-use sectors are likely to remain subdued, with forecasts for continued below-average activity in the automotive, construction, packaging, machinery and white goods segments. Respondents expect activity to tick up to above-average in the tubes and energy sectors from below average at present.
Stock levels going into the fourth quarter appear to be mostly stable, although flat steel service centres report below-average inventories. Perceptions about stocks in Italy, Iberia, the Nordics and Turkey are also down. Stocks in the white goods, automotive and packaging sectors are perceived as being below average and average in all other end-user segments.
By Lora Stoyanova
CBAM circumvention threat concerns European distributors
European steel service centres are concerned that some large, first-tier customers are turning to imports from outside the EU of the final, steel-containing product as these do not come under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
Suppliers from Asia are meanwhile looking for workaround solutions and are threatening the European metalforming industry and service centres. So was the conclusion of last week’s working group meeting hosted by European distributors’ association EUROMETAL.
“Scared by the impact of CBAM, some large customers (1st tiers) are looking for external alternatives outside European borders and opting to import ready-to-use steel products, in order to circumvent the regulation,” EUROMETAL says in its meeting summary.
“This trend deeply worries service centres, especially considering the current period of moderate activity. Already facing significant investments in decarbonisation and cost optimisation, CBAM throws another wrench into an already challenging situation,” it adds.
“The future of European steel processing hinges on the industry’s ability to adapt to the demands of CBAM while remaining competitive. Collaboration and innovation will likely be key to weathering this storm,” the association concludes.
Adam Smith Poland
Eurometal welcomes new president, extends geographic membership
The new management committee, or presidency, of steel distribution trade association Eurometal has held its first meeting, the organisation’s director general Georges Kirps tells Kallanish. The association also continues to extend its geographic reach in Europe with the addition of a Slovenian company to the membership
Under new president Jens Lauber, ceo of Tata Steel Distribution, Mainland Europe, the presidency includes 12 executives from steel distributors across Europe. Ten countries are represented on the panel.
The core member base of Eurometal is constituted by 19 national federations representing steel distribution and steel service centres, Lauber said in his address to the meeting. The association represents more than half of all steel volumes channelled to European steel consumers. Around 90% of the companies in the [… European] steel distribution sector are typically small and medium-sized enterprises, he added.
Slovenian group Kovintrade, an international network of steel trade and distribution companies having subsidiaries and agencies in 13 European countries, has also recently joined the association.
Kallanish Steel
First meeting of New EUROMETAL Presidency
The newly elected EUROMETAL Presidency met for the first time in Düsseldorf on 19. January 2016 under the chairmanship of EUROMETAL president, Jens Lauber, CEO TATA Steel Distribution Mainland Europe.
Besides President Jens Lauber, EUROMETAL Presidency board consists of:
First Vice president Robert Kay, FERONA, Czech Republic, Vice-presidents Mikael Nyquist, TIBNOR, Sweden, Johan Rosseel, GRYMAFER, Belgium, Cesare Vigano, AMCLN, Italy and Presidency board members Oliver Ellermann, BDS, Germany, Roberto Gonzalez, TIRSO Group, Spain, Michel Julien-Vauzelle, FFDM, France, Alexander Julius, MACROMETAL, Germany, Norbert Thumfart, ARGE SMD, Austria and Hein Vandeveire, AMDS SSC West Europe, Luxembourg.
Commenting the Presidency meeting, EUROMETAL president Jens Lauber underlined that EUROMETAL is an international platform for European steel distribution, SSC and steel trade, which are today 6 000 companies having shipments of 77 million tons, serving more than one million customers of steel, tubes and metal products and giving jobs to 110 000 people in the European Union.
The core member base of EUROMETAL is constituted by 19 national federations representing steel distribution and SSC, added the EUROMETAL president in his comment.
Jens Lauber pointed out to the facts that EUROMETAL represents more than half of all volumes channeled to the European steel consumers and that about 90% of the companies of the steel distribution sector are typically small and medium sized enterprises.
Commenting the geographical reach of EUROMETAL, Robert Kay, EUROMETAL First Vice-president, expressed his satisfaction about the acceptance of EUROMETAL as an outstanding provider of market intelligence and research reports leading to a strengthening of EUROMETAL’s visibility in Central and South-Eastern Europe.
After extending its reach to Estonia, EUROMETAL is pleased to announce that Slovenian group KOVINTRADE has recently joined the ranks of EUROMETAL.
KOVINTRADE is an international network of steel trade and distribution companies having subsidiaries and agencies in 13 European countries.
