European HRC prices hold firm as market eyes quota decision
European hot-rolled coil prices remained largely stable on Feb. 20, with sources pointing to a combination of cautious buying and expectations of further increases amid ongoing discussions on safeguard quotas and import restrictions.
Market sentiment was mixed, with mills and traders closely monitoring developments on the European Commission’s safeguard measures, expected to be announced later this week, some sources noted. While some market participants remained confident that the quota adjustments would help stabilize domestic prices, others were concerned about persistently weak demand.
A mill source highlighted the uncertain demand outlook. “We have taken the projection that there will be no growth in Europe,” the source said. “Real demand is still concerning, and many buyers remain risk-averse. That being said, restocking later in the quarter could provide some support.”
Despite these concerns, domestic mills continued to push for higher prices. Tier 1 mills in Northwest Europe were reported to be offering HRC at a minimum of Eur600/mt ex-works Ruhr, with tradable values ranging at Eur600-630/mt for specialty applications. Meanwhile, in Iberia, tradable values were reported at Eur610-620/mt ex-works.
A trader noted that higher import costs had limited the competitiveness of non-EU suppliers, helping to support European prices.
“Imports aren’t very attractive right now due to quota risks, taxes, and uncertainty around arrivals. That should continue to prop up domestic prices,” the source said.
Offers for imported HRC into Northwest Europe were heard at Eur550-560/mt CIF Antwerp from Indonesian suppliers for June arrival, while in South Europe, Turkish material was reported around Eur600/mt CIF Italy, duty paid.
In addition to the safeguard discussions, sources also cited supply-side factors as a key influence. “Some mills are stepping back from the market as they look to return with higher prices,” a distributor said.
Meanwhile, carbon-accounted HRC offers were heard at Eur200/mt, although volumes in this segment remained small.
Platts assessed HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur605/mt EXW Ruhr, stable on the day. Platts assessed HRC in South Europe at Eur610/mt EXW Italy, up Eur10 on the day.
Platts assessed imported HRC prices in Northwest Europe at Eur550/mt CIF Antwerp and South Europe at Eur550/mt CIF Italy, both stable on the day.
European HRC prices rise in recent trades; sentiment remains positive
European HRC buyers were partially accepting higher offers in recent trades, sources said.
“Buyers are still cautious with volumes and instead of buying, for example, 5,000 tonnes [of HRC, they will] book 2,500. But inquiries did improve,” a mill source in Northern Europe said.
First-tier suppliers in Northern Europe were offering HRC with April-May lead times at €630-660 ($659-690) per tonne delivered (€620-640 per tonne ex-works).
Transactions were reported at €615-620 per tonne ex-works in Germany.
Italy-origin HRC with April lead times was offered in Germany at €640-650 per tonne delivered.
As a result, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €618.13 per tonne on Friday, up by €7.25 per tonne from €610.88 per tonne on the previous day.
The Northern European index was up by €14.38 per tonne week on week and by €40.63 per tonne month on month.
Industry sources expected the uptrend to persist in the upcoming weeks – supported by restocking and limited availability of imports.
But several buyers sources expressed concerns about the viability of the further price increase, considering slow end-user demand.
“This entire [HRC] price recovery cannot be entirely based on the import situation. There is no major recovery in sight for steel-consuming industries: construction, automotive, etc,” a buyer said.
“It’s difficult to say [if the price recovery will continue]. Maybe we will see a slight [demand] improvement in the second quarter, but will it be enough?,” a second buyer said.
Sources previously said they expect more clarity regarding new safeguards measures next week.
Meanwhile, in Southern Europe, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €607.08 per tonne on Friday, up by €7.08 per tonne from €600.00 per tonne on Thursday.
The index was up by €11.66 per tonne week on week and up by €33.33 per tonne month on month.
In Italy, buyers estimated achievable prices at €600-610 per tonne ex-works on Friday.
Italian producers were offering April-delivery HRC at €620-640 per tonne delivered (€610-630 per tonne ex-works).
In the week to Friday, import HRC offers were broadly stable.
Most overseas suppliers were offering HRC to Europe with lead times in the second quarter, making imports increasingly risky since new safeguard measures are expected to come into effect in April.
From Asia, offers were reported at €550-570 per tonne CFR to Italy. Offers from Ukraine were reported within a similar range.
HRC from Turkey was on offer to Italy at €590-600 per tonne CFR, including the anti-dumping duty, sources told Fastmarkets. Several sources said that for big volumes it was possible to achieve €570-580 per tonne CFR. Several sources reported deals within the range €570-580 per tonne CFR from Turkey to Italy during the assessment week, but no further details were available at the time of publication.
Limited imports, restocking support European HRC prices recovery
However, the lack of new imports due to trade measures was still named the major driver for a price rebound, Fastmarkets heard.
European buyers were cautious about booking HRC from imports due to pending safeguard measures and the potential trade risks these might create, sources said.
German mills were aiming for €630-660 ($660-692) per tonne ex-works for April-delivery HRC, “with a minimal room for discounts,” sources said.
A major mill in the Benelux area was offering HRC at €630-640 per tonne ex-works.
Buyers in Northern Europe estimated tradable values at €600-620 per tonne ex-works on Tuesday.
One buyer in Germany said that it was “nearly impossible to get HRC below €620 per tonne ex-works from German mills.”
As a result, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €606 per tonne on Tuesday, up by €1 per tonne from €605 per tonne on Monday.
The Northern European index was up by €4.60 per tonne week on week and by €32.25 per tonne month on month.
Meanwhile, in Southern Europe, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €597.50 per tonne on Tuesday, up by €2.50 per tonne from €595.00 per tonne on Monday.
The index was up by €3.75 per tonne week on week and up by €27.50 per tonne month on month.
In Italy, local producers were also aiming for higher prices, sources said.
Notably, one mill in the nation was aiming for €640 per tonne delivered (€630 per tonne ex-works) for April-delivery coil, while another targeted €620 per tonne delivered (€610 per tonne ex-works). This was an increase from €610-620 per tonne delivered and €590-600 per tonne delivered for March lead times respectively.
A European supplier was offering HRC with second quarter lead times at €660 per tonne delivered to Italy.
However, none of the mentioned offers was considered workable by Italian buyers.
“The level of stock [at buyers’ disposal] allows them [buyers] to wait. New offers are too high, the downstream market is still rather weak, so purchasing [HRC] at prices above €600 [per tonne ex-works] is not viable for us,” a steel service center in Italy said.
Buyers’ estimations of tradable values were still reported at €590-600 per tonne ex-works, but since mills were standing firm on new offers, no transactions were reported on Tuesday.
“There are very few transactions these days if any,” a buyer source said.
Meanwhile, the market for overseas coil was also quiet. Safeguards review as well as anti-dumping probe into certain origins were limiting buying appetite for imports, sources said.
Turkey was heard offering April-shipment HRC to Italy at €590-600 per tonne CFR, including the anti-dumping duty, to European ports.
Indian coil was offered at €560 per tonne CFR to Southern Europe.
Limited imports support European HRC price recovery
However, according to market participants, the current positive trend in the European HRC market is not so much demand-driven but related to the lack of strong competition from imports.
The latest steel safeguard review of the European Commission, launched in December, sparked uncertainty among local buyers, decreasing their appetite to purchase imported HRC. Thus, European customers started to rely more on domestic production.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €603.33 ($625.74) per tonne on Thursday, up by €0.83 per tonne from €602.50 per tonne on Wednesday.
The Northern European index was up by €3.33 per tonne week on week and by €30.83 per tonne month on month.
One leading European mill has started offering April-May delivery HRC at €660 per tonne ex-works or delivered, depending on the destination, since last week, Fastmarkets understands.
Other mills in Northern Europe were heard offering HRC for delivery in the second quarter of the year at €610-630 per tonne ex-works.
Some transactions were reported at €600 per tonne ex-works, industry sources told Fastmarkets.
Buyers estimated the workable market level for HRC in Northern Europe at €595-605 per tonne ex-works.
Meanwhile, in Southern Europe, Fastmarkets’ corresponding daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €593.57 per tonne on Thursday, up by €0.24 per tonne from €593.33 per tonne on Wednesday.
The index was down by €0.18 per tonne week on week and up by €28.57 per tonne month on month.
Local suppliers were heard offering April-delivery HRC at €600-630 per tonne delivered, which would net back to €590-620 per tonne ex-works.
One European supplier was offering HRC with second-quarter lead times to Italy at €660 per tonne delivered, which would be equivalent to €650 per tonne ex-works, Fastmarkets understands. According to industry sources, discounts of €10-20 per tonne were possible.
Buyers’ estimates for the workable market level for HRC in Italy were at €590-600 per tonne ex-works, with the upper end of the price range considered challenging for local customers.
“[Levels at] € 600 per tonne ex-works [are still] a problem for the buyers at this stage because the downstream market is not [performing] great, but apparently there are no alternatives,” a buyer source based in Italy told Fastmarkets.
In terms of imports, no fresh offers or deals were heard in the European market.
European HRC prices increase slightly on continuing bullish sentiment
The positive mood among producers was mainly fueled by limited import availability related to the current steel safeguard measures review of the European Commission, which sparked uncertainty in the market for imported HRC.
Any possible changes were expected to take effect in April, which limited the interest of the European buyers in imported HRC, Fastmarkets understands.
In addition, the European Commission started an anti-dumping investigation against HRC imports from Egypt, India, Japan and Vietnam in August 2024. The probe is expected to continue for about a year, but provisional measures could be imposed.
The current bullish sentiment in the HRC market was also supported by some improvement in buying, especially in the region of Northern Europe, industry sources told Fastmarkets.
Last week, ArcelorMittal announced higher offers for April/May delivery HRC in the European market, reaching €660 ($682) per tonne ex-works or delivered, depending on the destination.
But these levels seemed to be the upper end of the offer price range, with many producers in Northern Europe still offering the material at €610-620 per tonne ex-works, Fastmarkets understands.
Buyers’ estimations for the tradable market level were at €595-600 per tonne ex-works.
However, no major deals with HRC were heard in the Northern European market on Wednesday.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €602.50 per tonne on Wednesday, up by €1.10 per tonne from €601.40 per tonne on Tuesday.
The Northern European index was up by €3.54 per tonne week on week and by €37.08 per tonne month on month.
Meanwhile, in Southern Europe, Fastmarkets’ corresponding daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €593.33 per tonne on Wednesday, down by just €0.42 per tonne from €593.75 per tonne on Tuesday.
The index was up by €4.58 per tonne week on week and by €30.83 per tonne month on month.
Local suppliers were heard offering April-delivery HRC at €600-630 per tonne delivered, which would net back to €590-620 per tonne ex-works.
One European supplier was offering HRC with second-quarter lead times to the nation at €660 per tonne delivered, which would be equivalent to €650 per tonne ex-works, Fastmarkets understands. According to industry sources, discounts of €10-20 per tonne were possible.
Buyers estimated the workable market level at €585-600 per tonne ex-works, but no major deals were heard for domestic HRC in Italy.
“The stocks of the Italian customers are medium-high, no one is in a rush to buy material,” a trader source based in Italy told Fastmarkets. The source added that the positive trend observed with the recently rising HRC prices was only driven by limited imports.
Indonesia was heard offering HRC to the Italian market at €540-560 per tonne CFR, Fastmarkets understands. Despite the trade risks, some transactions were reported at €540 per tonne CFR, but the details were unclear by the publication time.
Material from South Korea and Japan was on offer to Italy at €580 per tonne CFR, industry sources told Fastmarkets. However, local buyers deemed these levels unworkable.
Turkey was heard offering HRC to Italy at €590-600 per tonne CFR, including the anti-dumping duty, but these levels were also considered too close to the domestic prices to be tradable.
EU domestic HRC prices increase, industry reacts to US tariffs
European domestic hot-rolled coil prices inched higher on Feb. 11, as market participants continued to report higher mill offer levels and discuss the ramifications of the new tariffs on US steel and aluminum imports.
“The last time Trump was President he did this, but then some countries ended up on a quota, so let’s see what will happen,” said one service center source. “Market activity is ok, we are seeing some changes, but many are still waiting, perhaps expecting prices to go up.”
Other sources continued to offer bullish expectations for domestic HRC prices in North Europe, citing higher mill offers for Q2 at as high as Eur660/mt ex-works Ruhr. However, they highlighted some resistance to price increases from mid-stream buyers and the potential for greater European supply due to the new tariffs.
Eurofer described the new tariffs as a “radical escalation of the trade war” that, “will worsen the situation of the European steel industry,” in a press release on Feb. 11.
A second service center source said, “We will see more protectionism from the US and we need to protect ourselves, as Europe and Germany especially have always been a big exporter to the US, at the moment we have to react day by day.”
Talking about wider market dynamics, the same source said, “The lead times for all the mills I have spoken to now extending to April, so there is not much pressure to drop prices, but visibility into Q2 still is not great, and real utilization remains a problem.”
Discussing imports, one source referred to limited interest due to the increased “risk for more taxes and duties.”
A distributor also referred to wider buyer hesitancy in the Italian market due to, “regulatory uncertainty”, and limited interest in imports until the European Commission finalizes the steel safeguards review.
Platts assessed the North European domestic HRC price at Eur595/mt ex-works Ruhr, up Eur2.50 on the day, and the South European domestic HRC price at Eur590/mt ex-works Italy, up by Eur5 on the day.
Platts assessed imported HRC prices in Northwest Europe at Eur545/mt CIF Antwerp and Southern Europe at Eur545/mt CIF Italy, both flat on the day.
HRC prices in Europe hold steady; buyers cautious
The week before, ArcelorMittal announced a price increase of €30 ($31) per tonne for April/May-delivery HRC across Europe, with offers now reaching €660 per tonne ex-works or delivered, depending on the destination.
But other mills in Northern Europe refrained from following the move, keeping their offers for the second quarter of 2025 at €620-630 per tonne ex-works, industry sources told Fastmarkets.
However, buyers were cautious, and the traded volumes were limited, Fastmarkets understands.
“Final customers and stockholders still do not undertake a large-scale restocking. They wait to see how the market would develop,” a buyer source based in Northern Europe told Fastmarkets.
Buyers’ estimations for the workable market level were at €590-600 per tonne ex-works.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €598.75 per tonne on Monday, down by just €0.42 per tonne from €599.17 per tonne on Friday February 7.
The Northern European index was up by €7.50 per tonne week on week and by €33.33 per tonne month on month.
Meanwhile, in Southern Europe, Fastmarkets’ corresponding daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy was €592.50 per tonne on Monday, unchanged from the previous calculation on Friday.
The index was up by €5.00 per tonne week on week and by €30.00 per tonne month on month.
The latest offers of April-delivery HRC in Italy were heard at €600-610 per tonne delivered, which would net back to €590-600 per tonne ex-works.
Buyers estimated the workable market level at €580-600 per tonne ex-works on Monday.
However, no major deals with HRC were heard in the Italian market.
Italian customers were well-stocked and were not in a hurry to buy new material, industry sources told Fastmarkets.
The market of imported HRC was also quiet on Monday due to trade risks related to the current steel safeguard review, which was expected to be over by the end of March.
Taiwan and Indonesia were heard offering March-shipment HRC at €560-570 per tonne CFR to Italy. Offers from South Korea were reported at €580 per tonne CFR.
HRC from Turkey was on offer to Italy at €590 per tonne CFR, including the anti-dumping duty, industry sources told Fastmarkets.
Steel HRC prices inch upward across Europe
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, at €593.75 ($609.44) per tonne on Tuesday, up by €2.50 per tonne from €591.25 per tonne the previous day.
The index was also up by €5.31 per tonne week on week and by €28.75 per tonne month on month.
Trading activity in the region was still “far away from booming,” market sources said, but has recently picked up from the low levels at the beginning of January.
Buyers estimated tradeable values for HRC in the region at €580-600 per tonne ex-works.
Most market sources agreed, however, that it was impossible to get HRC from a first-tier supplier at a price “much below €600 per tonne ex-works.”
Major HRC producers in Northern Europe were largely sold out for first-quarter delivery coil. Target offer prices for April-delivery material were currently in the range of €620-630 per tonne ex-works, but this had not yet been achieved in deals.
“There is room for a minor price rise in the coming weeks, but demand is too weak to support any big rebound. I guess we will see some real import shortages in the second half of the year – that might help mills to gain a stronger position in negotiations,” a buyer in Germany said.
“We cannot see any shortage of [HRC] in the market yet,” a second buyer said. “There is plenty of material still in ports, but getting new tonnages from imports is likely to become increasingly difficult when [the EU’s] reviewed [import] safeguards are in place.”
Market sources expected to see tougher trade defense measures in the second quarter, and therefore a stronger reliance on domestic steel, Fastmarkets understands.
The European Commission started a review of steel safeguard measures on December 17 last year. The review was expected to be concluded by March 31, with any adjustments to the current measures expected to come into force the following month.
In Southern Europe, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, at €588.33 per tonne on Tuesday, up by €0.83 per tonne from €587.50 per tonne on February 3.
The index was up by €5.83 per tonne week on week and by €25.83 per tonne month on month.
Italian buyers estimated tradeable prices around €580-590 per tonne ex-works, while offers were reported at €590-600 per tonne ex-works for March-delivery coil.
In terms of imports, HRC from Turkey was on offer to Italy at €590 per tonne CFR, including anti-dumping duty, industry sources told Fastmarkets.
From Asia, March-shipment HRC offers were heard at €570-580 per tonne CFR.
European buyers estimated the workable price for imported coil at €540-550 per tonne CFR.
EU HRC prices sideways, price outlooks remain split
European hot rolled coil prices were flat Jan. 31, with market participants remaining mixed about the longevity of increased price levels as demand sentiment remained largely mixed.
Market sources reported tradable ranges of Eur580-600/mt ex-works Ruhr, citing the generally sideways conditions for price levels in North Europe, but reiterated how a large section of the market was growing more bullish against the backdrop of higher mill offers.
“The market is going up, driven by restocking and even mills that sell to automotive are seeing an increase in volumes,” said one German buyer. “But it is still not clear what the real consumption is, and some construction applications may only begin to pick up in Q2 or after the summer.”
Other sources argued against the bullish trends in the market, citing a continuation of high stock levels and uncertainty in the end-consumer market. “Service centers and cold rollers are sitting on huge stocks, so I’m not sure mills can get prices above Eur650/mt,” a second buyer said.
“We don’t see improvements to price levels at the moment, inventory levels are still high and there are still large volumes flowing into Antwerp,” a service-center source said. “Looking at real demand, I just don’t see an increase or prices going up, just sentiment.”
The same source reported a normalized HRC import price level of Eur575/mt CIF Antwerp, saying that compared to current EU-mill offers, prices remained competitive. Nonetheless, a large number of market participants have continued to stress a preference for domestic material, due to the recent trend of higher import offers, in part worsened by a volatile foreign exchange rate between the euro and the US dollar.
Conversations around European mill order books remained largely positive, as sources reported that several were at volume capacity until after March, and were not in a hurry to sell, despite the continued reports of higher stock levels further down the value chain.
A source from an EU mill argued that domestic production remained preferable to the import market. “Antidumping investigations are helping keep buyers on domestic,” the source said. “Imports offers are not competitive, and you can get better quality material, and clearer lead times if you buy domestically.”
“The problem at the moment is uncertainty across the market, so while prices are inching up and order intake is healthy, there is still too much uncertainty from politics.”
A second mill source said demand was stagnating, but “coil producers are absolutely in control, as Q1 is pretty much covered, so no producer is under pressure to sell cheap.”
Platts assessed the North European domestic HRC price at Eur590/mt ex-works Ruhr, and the Southern European domestic HRC price at Eur585/mt ex-works Italy, both stable on the day.
Platts assessed imported HRC prices in Northwest Europe and Southern Europe, at Eur545/mt CIF Antwerp and Eur545/mt CIF Italy, respectively, with both also remaining flat on the day.
European HRC prices remain stable on limited import interest, market uncertainty
Domestic European hot-rolled coil prices remained largely stable Jan. 30, despite a combination of seasonal restocking, limited import interest, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding safeguard measures supporting the domestic market.
Market participants noted a continued low level of interest in imports, with many buyers opting for domestic products despite concerns over price hikes.
“There is very little import interest, partly due to the prospect of higher duties and the current price disparity with domestic offers,” a distributor source said.
Other sources cited concerns over the longer delivery times for imported material as a key factor in the decision to favor European mills.
The lack of viable import options is contributing to the upward pressure on domestic prices, as mills focus more on securing long-term contracts rather than spot orders.
“Seasonal restocking has given domestic prices some momentum, but mills are more focused on securing longer-term deals,” another distributor source said.
While orderbooks of domestic mills are looking good, concerns about demand remain.
“If demand does not pick up soon, we could see price declines, regardless of the import quota situation,” a Germany based service center source said. “The European Commission’s investigation into imports is creating uncertainty, with the outcome of the safeguard measures remaining unclear.”
The impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding the potential for increased US tariffs on European imports, continues to add to market uncertainty.
“Geopolitical issues, particularly with the US, are creating confusion,” a Southern Europe-based trader said. “However, if the situation with Russia and Ukraine were to be resolved, it could drastically improve the outlook.”
Looking ahead, there is a sense of caution among buyers.
“We are not restocking too much at the moment,” another service center source said. “The outlook for the next three months remains uncertain, so we are not willing to take risks.”
The automotive sector, a key driver of demand in Europe, continues to face challenges, with some sources pointing to declining output figures, particularly in Germany.
Platts assessed the North European domestic HRC price at Eur590/mt ex-works Ruhr, stable on the day, while the Southern European domestic HRC price also remained stable at Eur585/mt ex-works Italy.
Platts assessed imported HRC prices in Northwest Europe at Eur545/mt CIF Antwerp, down Eur5 on the day, while Southern European imports were assessed at Eur545/mt CIF Italy, up Eur5 on the day.
Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.
