EU HRC markets struggle under CBAM uncertainty
European hot-rolled coil prices continued their near-term stability on Sept. 22, as market participants cited CBAM uncertainty and poor downstream demand.
“There is no confidence from the downstream. Nobody knows how big the fee for CBAM will be for next year, and if demand increases a little bit, it will push domestic prices higher,” said a service center source.
Wider conversations in the market continued to point toward significant uncertainty and unease over the lack of forward price discovery, largely attributed to a lack of information surrounding CBAM charges.
“EU producers will take advantage of the moment and try to raise prices, so nothing will change until demand in Europe returns to normal. If there is no demand the price falls,” said a trader, also discussing the difficulty in negotiating contracts for 2026 due to the unknown CBAM component.
A distributor also referred to the safeguard quotas as further limiting market liquidity and buying interest.
“Buyers are largely purchasing hand-to-mouth, and while imports remain theoretically competitive, they are unattractive due to the quota risks,” the distributor said, noting an increase in speculative inquiries from buyers but maintaining that market sentiment continued to be weakened by poor downstream demand.
Platts assessed Northern European HRC at Eur570/mt EXW Ruhr, and Southern European HRC at Eur555/mt EXW Italy, both stable dau pver day.
Platts assessed imported HRC at Eur480/mt CIF Antwerp and Eur480/mt CIF South Europe, both stable day over day.
European steel HRC market remains quiet, demand subdued
Workable prices for domestic HRC in Northern Europe were estimated in the range of €580-585 ($687-693) per tonne ex-works, but no sales were heard during the day.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, was €581.25 ($688.49) per tonne on Wednesday, down by €3.75 per tonne from €585.00 per tonne on September 16.
The Northern European index was down by €1.88 per tonne week on week but up by €12.08 per tonne month on month.
Trading was still limited, with buyers cautiously waiting for more clarity on the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and for demand to pick up momentum.
According to one market source, mills were “still pushing for higher offers,” but the market will start to show “more movement” once regulations become clearer.
Prices for overseas coil also increased over the past week.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil, import, cfr main port Northern Europe, was €500-520 per tonne on Wednesday, narrowing upward from €490-520 per tonne the previous week.
In the Italian market, hot-rolled coil offers were heard around €570-580 per tonne ex-works, but no trades at those levels have been reported.
Buyer estimates of tradable prices were in the range of €550-570 per tonne ex-works.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, was €553.33 per tonne on Wednesday, down by €2.92 per tonne from €556.25 per tonne on Tuesday.
The Italian index was up by €4.83 per tonne week on week and by €15.83 per tonne month on month.
Meanwhile, offers of overseas HRC increased over the past week.
Offers from Turkey were heard around €530-540 per tonne CFR, including the EU anti-dumping duty, while offers from India were reported at €530 per tonne CFR.
Offers from Indonesia were also heard at €510-515 per tonne CFR.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil, import, cfr main port Southern Europe, was €510-530 per tonne, rising from €485-520 per tonne during the previous assessment period.
European HRC market remains muted as holidays continue, sellers optimistic
Nevertheless, local producers were optimistic about the post-summer uptick in prices amid uncertainty over future regulation on imports.
The most recent offers for material scheduled for delivery in October from mills in the Northern European region varied mainly within the range of €590-610 per tonne ex-works ($686-710), while workable levels were said to vary within the range of €560-580 per tonne exw, depending on volume and supplier.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, was €573.75 ($667.34) per tonne on August 22, unchanged day-on-day.
The Italian market continues snoozing due to the ongoing Ferragosto period; therefore, no fresh bookings were heard, with estimates of workable price varying within the range of €540-545 per tonne exw.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, was calculated at €540.83 per tonne on Friday, stable day on day.
Italian mills’ price targets for October tonnages are voiced at €570-580 per tonne exw, while some producers from Northern Europe also reported intentions to increase offers further after the summer break.
Mills’ optimism stems from expectations of lower import volumes in the fourth quarter of 2025 because delivery and custom clearance of these volumes will take place at the beginning of 2026 when the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will come into force, while steel delivered prior to this date may be subject to stricter safeguard measures.
Central Europe
Central European HRC prices rose in the week to Wednesday August 20, despite slow demand from buyers, market sources told Fastmarkets.
According to sources, mills are “pushing for higher prices” following months of muted market growth.
This week, market sources assessed the workable market for domestic HRC at €550-570 per tonne ex-works, compared with €545-565 per tonne ex-works during the previous assessment period.
However, suppliers are finding resistance from buyers, with a distributor source saying that Europe needs to “make a turn” to reverse the “low demand” that has been observed in key segments of the market over recent months.
“The automotive industry is not buying [HRC], instead they are reducing volumes because of high energy costs, while the Asian market remains more competitive,” the source said.
The source also stated that the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in January 2026 could also have an effect on the market.
“The CBAM is also going to increase prices, but it’s not going to help the industry because costs will also go up as a result of the duty,” they said.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil, domestic, exw Central Europe, was €550-570 per tonne on Wednesday, rising from €545-565 per tonne the previous week.
European HRC prices steady amid muted trading; mills keep pushing for higher offers
In Northern Europe, target offers for HRC with delivery in October were looming at €590-610 ($689-712) per tonne ex-works, but no transactions at the mentioned levels have been reported so far.
On August 19 several sources told Fastmarkets that a leading European steelmaker increased HRC prices for the third time over the past month, up by €20 per tonne to €630 per tonne ex-works or delivered for November lead times. But the mentioned steelmaker didn’t return Fastmarkets’ request for comment before publication.
“Most likely they booked their capacity [for September-October] and pushed for higher prices on the last bits,” a source familiar with the matter suggested.
Nonetheless, German and Benelux suppliers managed to achieve higher prices in transaction during August, with the market rebounding from the rock bottom levels registered in July.
Notably, buyers’ estimations of tradeable values were reported at €560-580 per tonne ex-works, with transactions reported within the mentioned range lately.
Some sources claimed that €550 per tonne ex-works was still achievable for large tonnages at some suppliers.
“Producers managed to recover some €20-30 per tonne from rock bottom prices, which is a positive sign, but the increase is not driven by improved demand — rather some precautions due to expectedly lower imports,” a buyer in Germany said. “New import offers for delivery in the first quarter of 2026 will fall under CBAM [Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism], and uncertainty also surrounds the early replacement of safeguard measures.”
Additionally, the European Commission ended its consultation on future trade measures to replace steel safeguards on Monday August 18, with most submissions from European companies and associations supporting long-term measures based on tariff-rate quotas (TRQs), Fastmarkets understands.
“This entire bullishness of the EU mills is fueled by expectations of much lower imports as of 2026,” a trading source said.
Sources claimed that this regulatory ambiguity was curbing buyers’ appetite for imports and, therefore, driving interest for domestically produced coil.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €571.25 per tonne on August 19, down by €3.96 per tonne from €575.21 per tonne on August 18.
The Northern European index was up by €0.24 per tonne week on week and up by €19.58 per tonne month on month.
Meanwhile, the Italian market was still in “holiday mode” with most sources still absent.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was €537.50 per tonne on Tuesday, stable day on day.
The Italian index was down by €2.50 per tonne week on week, but up by €12.50 per tonne month on month.
EU HRC markets subdued amid holidays, low buying interest
The European HRC markets remained stable on June 9, amid holidays in Northern Europe and a lingering bearish backdrop.
Although the North of Europe was largely out of the market due to national holidays, sources in the south continued to share negative views toward demand-side fundamentals, noting that the increased level of competition to capture orders was further suppressing prices.
“On both the domestic and import side, price adjustments are happening,” said an Italy-based trader. “Buyers are saying I have enough stock for now, nothing has happened, but prices have gone down.”
A South European service center source reiterated the quieter conditions and increased competition to fill capacities in the market.
“It would still be quiet if they were working in the North, the uncertainty on prices is paramount at the moment, and our customers are just going day by day,” the service center source said. “Mills are slashing prices to pick up quantities and any inquiries. We are all fighting for any order, which means there are no margins.”
Platts assessed domestic HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur600/mt ex-works Ruhr and Southern Europe at Eur585/mt ex-works Italy, both unchanged on the day.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur520/mt CIF Antwerp, and in Southern Europe at Eur510/mt CIF Italy, both stable day over day.
Sluggish demand drags on European HRC prices; buyers keep to sidelines
In Northern Europe, HRC with July lead times was heard offered at €620-650 ($709-743) per tonne ex-works or delivered from integrated mills.
A re-roller in the region was heard offering coil at €600 per tonne ex-works.
Italy-origin coil was offered to Germany at €630 per tonne delivered, with bids for such material reported at €610 per tonne delivered.
Buyers’ estimations of tradable prices were heard at €590-620 per tonne ex-works on Friday.
Earlier this week, industry sources reported that one major supplier in the region concluded a transaction at approximately €600 per tonne delivered Germany, equating to around €585-590 per tonne ex-works. But another source indicated that the deal was finalized at €595 per tonne delivered.
Throughout the first week of June, trading was muted.
Sluggish end-user demand, lack of buyer confidence and competitive import offers put pressure on domestic prices in Europe, while the approaching holiday season left little hope for a short-term price rebound, sources said.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Northern Europe was €606.38 per tonne on Friday, down by €1.12 per tonne from €607.50 per tonne on Thursday June 5.
The index slipped by €21.12 per tonne since Monday June 2.
The Northern European index was also down by €22.37 per tonne week on week and by €48.60 per tonne month on month.
Meanwhile, in Central Europe, buyers estimated the market at €600-630 per tonne ex-works during the assessment week.
Offers from integrated mills were heard at 630-640 per tonne ex-works.
One mill in the region was heard to have limited spot availability until August after contracting major volumes to Germany.
A deal was also heard at €600 per tonne ex-works in the region, but it was not widely confirmed by industry sources.
As a result, Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil domestic, exw Central Europe was €600-630 per tonne on June 4, down from €630-640 per tonne in the previous week.
Meanwhile, in Italy, Fastmarkets’ daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €590 per tonne on Friday, stable day on day.
The Italian index was down by €8.75 per tonne week on week and by €25 per tonne month on month.
The Italian market has also been quiet.
Offers from domestic suppliers were in the range of €590-610 per tonne delivered (€580-600 per tonne ex-works). An integrated supplier was offering at the higher end of the range.
Buyers estimated tradable prices at €580-590 per tonne ex-works, hinting at further downward potential due to limited demand.
Some re-rollers were still offering June lead times, while integrated mills offered July delivery, underscoring the difficulty that suppliers are facing in filling order books.
Imports have added further downward pressure.
Indonesian HRC was heard offered at €490-500 per tonne CFR to Italy by midweek, down from €520 per tonne CFR at the end of May.
Indian material was offered around €535-540 per tonne CFR, while Turkish coil was available at €530-545 per tonne CFR duty paid.
Despite attractive prices, buyers showed limited interest in imported material, with some reportedly testing the quality of recent arrivals before committing to new bookings.
Safeguards-related risks were also cooling buying interest for overseas coil, Fastmarkets heard.
Market participants expressed broader concerns about the structural demand weakness in Europe, citing poor fundamentals in downstream sectors, such as automotive and construction. The looming introduction of US tariffs and the upcoming implementation of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) also added to the prevailing uncertainty.
“There’s no light at the end of the tunnel,” one German buyer said.
With a seasonal summer slowdown approaching and no significant demand recovery in sight, most market participants expect the downtrend to persist into the coming weeks, keeping both domestic and import prices under sustained pressure.
Limited demand keeps putting pressure on HRC prices in Europe
Fastmarkets’ daily calculation of the steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe was €646.75 ($727.11) per tonne on Monday May 12, down by €4.92 per tonne from €651.67 per tonne on Friday May 9.
One of the mills in the region reportedly dropped offers to as low as €635 per tonne ex-works, but even this price did not spark any trading, a buy-side source told Fastmarkets.
A second producer was also heard to be cutting offers, but, according to a source within the company, its prices remained in the range of €640-660 per tonne ex-works.
Estimates of workable prices were still coming in at €640-660 per tonne ex-works, but no business was heard done during Monday.
In Southern Europe, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €610 per tonne on Monday, down by €1.67 per tonne from €611.67 per tonne on Friday.
The assessment was based on offers heard in the range of €600-620 per tonne ex-works, depending on the mill.
“[The HRC market in] Italy is really weak — high stocks at distributors and slow real demand,” one source said, adding that import offers are “getting interesting.”
Lately, July-shipment Turkey-origin coil has been available at €550-555 per tonne CFR to Italy, duty paid, Fastmarkets heard.
From Indonesia and Malaysia, offers for July-shipment coil were reported at €510-520 per tonne CFR, while Indian material was available at €560 per tonne CFR.
In Northern Europe, material from Indonesia and Malaysia was said to be available around €510 per tonne CFR, and coil from India was reportedly at €570 per tonne CFR.
European HRC prices broadly flat amid quiet market
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe at €654.17 ($740.04) per tonne on Tuesday, up by €0.42 per tonne from €653.75 per tonne the previous day.
The Northern European index was down by €0.21 per tonne week on week, but up by €18.17 per tonne month on month.
Mills in Northern Europe continued offering June-July delivery HRC at €570-700 per tonne ex-works, industry sources told Fastmarkets.
However, trading in the region was largely quiet, with no significant transactions reported in the market.
Buyers’ estimations for the tradable market level for HRC in Northern Europe were at €640-660 per tonne ex-works.
“The market is quiet, we do not see any [increased] dynamics [in terms of buying]. [It] seems that customers are still evaluating [the current] situation, and demand is still not that big,” a producer source told Fastmarkets.
Another industry source told Fastmarkets that the uncertainty around the new US tariffs on aluminum and steel had a negative impact on the exports of different types of machinery from the EU.
This would also have some effect on the European HRC prices, which would probably stabilize around this level or even decrease slightly in the short run, according to the source.
However, prices would probably continue to increase in the second half of the year, considering the good order books of the European mills, the source added.
In Southern Europe, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €631.50 per tonne on Tuesday, down by €1.00 per tonne from €632.50 per tonne the previous day.
The index was up by €0.25 per tonne week on week and by €11.50 per tonne month on month.
Offers of HRC in Italy were hovering around €640-660 per tonne delivered, which would net back to €630-650 per tonne ex-works.
An Italian supplier was heard selling some HRC volumes at €605 per tonne ex-works, industry sources told Fastmarkets. But this price level was an exception, with most transactions being concluded at €620-630 per tonne ex-works.
Buyers’ estimations for the tradable market level for HRC in Italy were close to this level at €620-640 per tonne ex-works.
Regarding imports, India was heard offering HRC to Italy at $630-640 per tonne CFR.
Turkey’s offers of HRC to Italy stood at €580-590 per tonne CFR, including the anti-dumping duty, industry sources told Fastmarkets.
Julia Bolotova in Brussels contributed to this report.
European HRC prices stable amid cautiously positive sentiment
Transaction prices, however, remained below the targeted offer levels by producers, Fastmarkets understands.
German mills continued offering June-July delivery HRC at €670 ($743) per tonne ex-works.
A major Benelux-based mill was aiming for €670-680 per tonne ex-works for coil with June-July lead times, industry sources told Fastmarkets.
A leading integrated European steelmaker was still offering HRC at €700 per tonne ex-works or delivered, depending on location.
Italy-origin coil was heard offered to Germany at €680 per tonne delivered.
Buyer sources, however, estimated the tradeable market price at €640-660 per tonne ex-works.
Some low-tannage deals were reported at €650-660 per tonne delivered Germany, Fastmarkets understands.
“No trading is happening anywhere near €700 [per tonne for HRC],” a Benelux-based buyer source told Fastmarkets.
“Current momentum in the HRC market is not demand-driven. But the situation with imports and limited supply at some mills in the second quarter supported domestic prices,” a second buyer source based in Germany said.
As a result, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €654.38 per tonne on Friday, down marginally by €0.20 per tonne from €654.58 per tonne on Thursday April 10.
The Northern European index was up by €2.55 per tonne week on week and by €18.55 per tonne month on month.
Meanwhile, in Southern Europe, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €631.67 per tonne on Friday, up by €0.42 per tonne from €631.25 per tonne on Thursday.
The index was up by €4.17 per tonne week on week and by €11.67 per tonne month on month.
Domestic HRC prices in Italy have not show the same growth momentum as in Northern Europe recently. Sources said this was mainly due to muted downstream demand and buyers’ higher inventory levels.
The latest domestic offers for HRC with delivery in four to five weeks were heard at €660-670 per tonne delivered, equivalent to €650-660 per tonne ex-works.
An integrated European mill was still offering June-delivery HRC in the Italian market at €680-700 per tonne delivered, Fastmarkets understands.
However, no major transactions were heard in the Italian market, with most buyers estimating the tradable market level at €620-630 per tonne ex-works.
The market for imported HRC remained largely quiet with no fresh offers or deals heard in the market.
European HRC prices largely unmoved; higher offers not yet sealed in deals
Steelmakers in Northern Europe were offering June-July delivery coil at €670-700 ($744-777) per tonne ex-works.
Italy-origin coil was offered to Germany at €680 per tonne delivered.
Offers, however, were still above tradable values reported by buyers sources mainly at €640-650 per tonne ex-works on Thursday.
As a result, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €654.58 per tonne on Thursday, up marginally by €0.83 per tonne from €653.75 per tonne the previous day.
The Northern European index was up by €4.08 per tonne week on week and by €22.70 per tonne month on month.
Trading in the spot market was limited so far, with buyers only booking minimal tonnages to cover urgent needs.
“There has been muted trading for months. Buyers say their stocks are low, but in line with current demand,” a steel-service center source in Germany said. “if demand picks up slightly and/or supply decreases, and buyers need more [HRC], then prices can potentially go up more.”
“So far, demand-supply balance is ok. Lower production at Salzgitter, the three-month maintenance at [ArcelorMittal] Dunkirk and lower imports due to trade measures [are supporting] local prices. But real demand remains a problem,” a mill source said.
At the same time, ongoing volatility, created by the US tariffs, was casting shadows on real demand developments in the longer run.
“The impact of the US tariffs are unforeseeable because it changes every day, and one single tweet can turn the markets topsy-turvy overnight. If automotive tariffs remain in place, weaker automotive consumption might bring more tonnages to the spot market,” a buyer said.
In Southern Europe, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €631.25 per tonne on Thursday, unchanged from the previous day.
The index was up by €6.25 per tonne week on week and by €11.25 per tonne month on month.
Offers for HRC with around five weeks lead times from one local supplier were reported at €660-670 per tonne delivered (€650-660 per tonne ex-works).
Another supplier was aiming for €630 per tonne ex-works, sources said.
Estimation of tradable prices from buyers was still reported at €620-630 per tonne ex-works.
A European mill was offering June-delivery coil to Italy at €700 per tonne delivered. But some sources said it was possible to get €680 per tonne delivered for larger tonnages.
The market for imported coil was largely quiet, with only few offers heard to Italy amid safeguard amendments and anti-dumping measures.
From India, HRC offers India to Italy were reported at €580-590 per tonne CFR.
Turkey continued offering HRC to Italy at €580-600 per tonne CFR, including the anti-dumping duty.
