European HRC prices flat in quiet market
Sources said the increase in trading activity was not due to improved demand or an economic upturn, but due to expectations of longer lead times at some suppliers.
“Some steelmakers will extend their winter break, which will lead to longer lead times [for HRC],” a buyer in the Benelux region of Northern Europe told Fastmarkets.
Offers for HRC with lead times in the first quarter 2025 were heard at €570-600 ($598-630) per tonne ex-works in Northern Europe on Friday, but sources said there was “no information about contracts starting with a ‘6’ so far.”
One supplier in the Benelux region reported hearing of deals for HRC being done at €570-580 per tonne ex-works.
A supplier in Germany, meanwhile, said deals had been done at €560-570 per tonne ex-works.
Buyer estimates of the tradable level in Northern Europe were heard at €550-580 per tonne ex-works on Friday.
“The market mood is rather depressed, especially in Germany, where many companies are announcing staff lay-offs,” a source in Germany said.
And there was said to be fierce downstream competition between steel service centers (SSCs) because of high inventories and cashflow needs.
“There is a battle for orders between SSCs,” a third buyer said.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, at €562.50 per tonne on December 13, down by €0.63 per tonne from €563.13 per tonne on December 12.
The index was down by €1.67 per tonne week on week but up by €4.17 per tonne month on month.
No major progress was reported regarding the long-term contracts negotiations between steel mills and automakers
Buyers were hoping to achieve a discount for first-half and full-year 2025 contracts, with several original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) reporting a targeted decline of €100-150 per tonne.
Mills were hoping for a “double digit” discount, Fastmarkets understands.
“Mills have to keep in mind that the price gap between spot and contract prices is too wide right now,” a fourth buyer told Fastmarkets.
Contracts for the second half of 2024 were done at €730-750 per tonne, sources said.
“We are in the middle of negotiations with the OEMs. [Contract] prices for HRC will be lower [than] 2024, but not by as much as initially expected,” a mill source said.
“Negotiations [with the automotive sector] are very difficult and might extend into January,” a mill source said.
In Southern Europe, meanwhile, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, at €561.50 per tonne on Friday, down by €0.38 per tonne from €561.88 per tonne on the previous day.
The Italian index was up by €1.08 per tonne week on week and up by €7.50 per tonne month on month.
One local steelmaker in Italy was aiming for €600-640 per tonne delivered (€590-630 per tonne ex-works) for February-March delivery coil, sources said,
depending on the tonnage and client.
One integrated mill in Italy raised its offer prices for first-quarter delivery coil to €570 per tonne ex-works, compared with €550 per tonne ex-works at the start of December,
Buyers, meanwhile estimated the tradable base price for HRC at €570-580 per tonne delivered (€560-570 per tonne ex-works).
The market for imported coil in Europe remained quiet in the week to Friday due persistent trade restrictions, long lead times and uncompetitive prices compared with European suppliers.
“We expect reliance on European material will only increase in the upcoming months,” a buyer in Italy said.
Turkish suppliers were offering HRC at €550 per tonne CFR, duty paid, for tonnages of 10,000 tonnes or more, sources said.
And offers of HRC for February shipment from Southeast Asia to Italy came in at €580-600 per tonne CFR in the seven days to Friday.
EU HRC prices hold as the industry prepares for holiday production stops
European hot-rolled coil prices remained largely stable on Dec. 13 as the European flat steel industry prepares for holiday production stops to take place, according to sources.
“More mills are preparing to shut production for one to two weeks longer than usual production stops,” a Germany-based service center source said.
There has been a slight increase in demand for European mills as interest in imports has fallen due to the risk of antidumping investigations, quotas, and long lead times. “Imports carry longer lead times and higher than products from domestic mills,” said the source.
“Why buy from imports when they are at the same price level as domestic mills?” questioned the source. Demand for European flat steel products has risen slightly on supply-side factors, including a reduction in capacity by domestic mills in recent weeks, according to sources.
European flat steel price movements over the past few months have changed with “the introduction of the Chinese stimulus package, political decisions to improve the European economy, and lower European Central Bank interest rates designed to stimulate the economy,” said a Germany-based service center source.
Platts assessed Northwest European HRC at Eur560/mt ex-works Ruhr, stable on the day.
Platts assessed Southern European HRC at Eur555/mt EXW Italy, down Eur5 on the day.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur540/mt CIF Antwerp, stable on the day.
Meanwhile, Platts assessed imported HRC in South Europe at Eur540/mt CIF Italy, also stable on the day.
EU domestic HRC prices climb; 2025 outlook remains mixed
Domestic European hot-rolled coil prices climbed Dec. 10, while market fundamentals remained largely unchanged, as sources focused on the wider uncertainty and discussed the need for domestic production cuts.
“Business is dead quiet, we don’t expect much of an increase in requests now,” a service center source said. “There is a lot of uncertainty ahead beyond steel with Trump and now for Germany, everyone is waiting for a new government, so we don’t expect much of a price change until the elections in February.”
The same source referred to an oversupplied market while sharing expectations for potential mill capacity cuts across Northern Europe.
“It is impacting all types of steel, despite the market being oversupplied and margins being so poor, mills are still producing, with a large amount of output being green as they try to keep their carbon certificates,” the service center source said.
“European steelmakers are struggling with low HRC demand and low prices while imports are limited due to the risk on quotas and domestic rates are comparable. The green steel market is growing slowly, but we are expecting a weak first quarter in 2025,” a German distributor said, referring to both Northern and Southern European markets.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur540/mt CIF Antwerp, stable on the day.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Southern Europe at Eur540/mt CIF Italy, unchanged on the day.
Market participants in both regions continued to refer to higher mill offers but cited the wider and more competitive price levels that continued to be heard in the market, adding pressure to potential price increases.
However, a mill source argued this was due to higher stock levels and limited demand opportunities further down the value chain.
“Service centers are so aggressive in getting rid of their high volume, that they can’t afford to buy material at the new higher prices — so it’s creating a squeeze,” the mill source said. “The market cannot continue without capacity cuts, we need higher prices, especially if we are looking to decarbonize further.”
Platts assessed Northwest European HRC at Eur557.50/mt ex-works Ruhr Dec. 10, up Eur7.50 on the day.
Platts assessed domestic HRC in Southern Europe at Eur560/mt ex-works Italy, up Eur5 on the day.
Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.
European HRC market awaits clarity on future developments; price lacks clear direction
Buyers were expecting to see how negotiations on long-term contracts between automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and steelmakers would develop for the first half and full year of 2025.
The outcome of the negotiations is expected to set the tone for trading in the spot market, according to industry sources.
Buyers were hoping to achieve a discount of around €100 per tonne for first-half and full-year 2025 contracts, while mills are targeting a more minor reduction of €50 per tonne or a price rollover in some cases, Fastmarkets understands.
Although one producer source told Fastmarkets that they had already managed to sign some contracts with the automotive OEMs and the achieved price was described to be “just a two-digit decrease,” negotiations were still continuing.
According to industry sources, the negotiations would be fully completed in January.
January is also expected to bring more clarity regarding imported volumes of HRC, most of which will be customs cleared in the first month of 2025, a buyer source told Fastmarkets. Thus, there would be more transparency in the market on HRC availability.
Import offers of HRC to Europe remained uncompetitive, which was expected to support domestic prices, the buyer added.
Meanwhile, mills in Northern Europe continued to offer HRC for delivery in the first quarter of 2025 at €600-620 ($633-654) per tonne ex-works, according to industry sources.
Mills were not willing to give significant discounts on their spot market offers due to the continuing negotiations with the automotive OEMs, Fastmarkets understands.
Buyers’ estimations of the workable market level were lower, at €550-570 per tonne ex-works.
However, trading remained limited, and no major deals were heard in the market.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe at €564.17 per tonne on Friday, up by €4.17 per tonne from €560.00 per tonne on Thursday.
The index was also up by €4.17 per tonne week on week and up by €5.42 per tonne month on month.
In Southern Europe, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy at €560.42 per tonne on Friday, down by €2.08 per tonne from €562.50 per tonne on Thursday.
The index was up by €2.09 per tonne week on week and up by €8.75 per tonne month on month.
Trading in Italy was also slow on Friday, Fastmarkets understands.
One Italian supplier continued to offer HRC for the first quarter of next year at €600 per tonne delivered, which would net back to €590 per tonne ex-works, Fastmarkets understands.
But a second supplier was heard to be accepting bookings at €550 per tonne ex-works.
Buyer estimations of the workable market level were at €550-570 per tonne ex-works.
No fresh import offers were heard in the market.
EU HRC market remains stable on low market activity
Domestic European hot-rolled coil prices were stable on Dec. 3, due to slow trading activity and low levels of weak demand in the domestic flat steel market.
“Competition between mills and distributors is intense in the spot market, as service centers are destocking at year-end,” a Germany-based distributor said. The source reported that some mills in southern Europe were undercutting current market prices, although it did not impact prices on the wider spot market.
“The market remains cautious, with limited demand recovery expected in the short term,” the source added.
Market sentiment indicated that a demand recovery after Christmas was necessary to support prices, as well as a reduction in capacity. Supply-side factors are expected to play an important role in supporting prices by decreasing the availability of material in the market.
Platts assessed Northwest European HRC at Eur550/mt ex-works Ruhr on Dec. 3, stable on the day.
An offer was heard at Eur550-570/mt EXW Ruhr.
Platts assessed domestic HRC in Southern Europe at Eur545/mt EXW Italy, stable on the day.
“Imports remain limited due to pricing issues, the Euro/USD exchange rate, and EU safeguards,” according to sources. A reduction in demand for imports helped support demand for material from domestic European mills.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur530/mt CIF Antwerp, stable on the day.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Southern Europe at Eur525/mt CIF Italy, stable on the day.
Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Italian HRC mills prepare long stoppages, possible hikes
Italian hot rolled coil prices have maintained stability compared to mid-November, exhibiting a slight increase versus the beginning of the month. Demand is currently weak, and sales are being executed in restricted volumes.
Several Italian mills are set to undergo prolonged shutdowns in conjunction with the December holiday season. A producer plans to significantly reduce output this year to align demand and supply, and will temporarily halt operations at its plant for three weeks between December and January. The company will not take bookings for January and will exclusively accept orders for February due to the prolonged closure. Italian producers have largely completed their December order books, sources tell Kallanish.
The availability of materials in Italy is expected to be limited due to the impending shutdown. Acciaierie d’Italia is currently operating at a diminished capacity. Italian producers of hot-rolled coil are aiming to increase their prices to €600/t ($631/t) delivered. However, clients remain sceptical about the feasibility of this target in the current market conditions. Market participants, including both sellers and buyers, indicate a lack of interest in the import market, as import offers are primarily aligned with domestic HRC contract levels besides the risk of duties. A leading European producer is currently pricing HRC at €600-610/t base ex-works or delivered in various European markets. Current sales activity at these price points is virtually non-existent, but the absence of import alternatives leads sellers to believe that this price level will be reached in Europe.
In the coming weeks, it is expected that customers will ramp up their purchases in Italy in order to stockpile ahead of the impending closures, especially given that one producer will be unable to meet orders for January.
In Italy, service centre quality material is currently being contracted at an average price of €570/t delivered, with reports of some lower contracts around €550/t delivered. A significant number of service centres’ clients will start shutdown in the second week of December, with operations set to resume on 7 January.
Natalia Capra France
EU HRC prices rise, supported by weak import market
Domestic European hot-rolled coil prices rose slightly Oct. 31, as weak import market demand continued to boost the performance of domestic European mills.
Rumored production cuts by mills due to maintenance works are likely to support prices, an Italy-based trader said. Weak demand forecasts for 2025 are expected to factor into mills’ decisions to reduce capacity, the source added.
“Now, there is no demand and there is no money from government(s) supporting the economy like they did in 2020-2021 in the COVID Crisis,” said a Germany-based trader source of the current market situation.
A Germany-based distributor source said that there was no pressure to reduce prices despite low consumption in the European market.
Platts assessed Northwest European HRC at Eur570/mt ex-works Ruhr Oct. 31, up Eur10 on the day.
Offers were reported at Eur600-640/mt EXW Ruhr. Tradable values were at Eur580-590/mt EXW Ruhr.
Platts assessed domestic HRC in Southern Europe at Eur555/mt EXW Italy, stable on the day.
Many market participants remained unwilling to bear the risk of purchasing imports due to CBAM regulations, quotas, antidumping investigations, and retroactive duties on steel arriving this year, according to a Germany based distributor source.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur515/mt CIF Antwerp, stable on the day.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Southern Europe at Eur535/mt CIF Italy, stable on the day.
European mills push for substantially higher HRC offers for Q1 2025 despite subdued demand
Despite subdued consumption, all major European suppliers were looking to achieve higher prices for January and February, Fastmarkets heard.
“Imports are expensive and too risky to book, considering anti-dumping probes and safeguards. If mills [in Europe] adjust production volumes in November and December, they might get a chance to increase [HRC] prices,” a buyer in Germany said.
Northern European producers were offering January-delivery coil at €600-620 ($648-670) per tonne ex-works and even at €640 per tonne ex-works in some cases, sources said. But these prices have not been accepted in deals so far.
Producers continued to offer discounts only for HRC with delivery in the fourth quarter of 2024, Fastmarkets heard. Notably, transactions for December-delivery HRC were reported at €550-560 per tonne ex-works, while offers for such material were around €570-580 per tonne ex-works.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Northern Europe at €555.42 per tonne on Tuesday, up by €5.13 per tonne from €550.29 per tonne on Monday.
The index was down by €1.67 per tonne week on week, but up by €10.21 per tonne month on month.
Sources said that European suppliers were also trying to push spot prices higher ahead of negotiations of long-term contracts with end users for next year.
“Mills are trying to strengthen their position… ahead of signing long-term contracts with automakers,” a buyer source said.
Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) were asking for discounts of up to €200 per tonne, which is “unacceptable” from suppliers’ point of view.
Long-term contracts with OEMs in the automotive industry for the second half of 2024 were closed at €730-750 per tonne – and even at €700 per tonne in some cases, compared with €800 per tonne in the first half of the year.
In Southern Europe, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Italy at €548.63 per tonne on Tuesday, up by €1.63 per tonne from €547.00 per tonne on Monday.
The Italian index was up by €0.50 per tonne week on week and up by €6.96 per tonne month on month.
Suppliers in Italy were offering December-delivery HRC at €570-580 per tonne delivered, which would net back to €560-570 per tonne ex-works, Fastmarkets heard.
But for such material, buyer estimates for the tradable market level were still reported at no higher than €540-550 per tonne ex-works.
“Negotiations [for December HRC sales] are still underway; mills’ asking prices are too high,” a buyer in Italy said.
Import prices, meanwhile, remain uncompetitive and no fresh business was completed on Tuesday, sources told Fastmarkets.
In Italy, November-shipment HRC from Turkey was on offer at €580-590 per tonne CFR to Italy, including the anti-dumping duty, while Asian material was on offer at €550-570 per tonne CFR.
Last week, the European Commission started registering all HRC imports from Egypt, India, Japan and Vietnam, paving the way for the potential retroactive application of anti-dumping duties, Fastmarkets reported.
EU starts registration of HRC imports from Egypt, India, Japan, Vietnam
This means that “if the necessary conditions are fulfilled,” anti-dumping duties could then be “levied retroactively on the registered imports in accordance with the applicable legal provisions.”
The Commission launched an anti-dumping probe against HRC imports from the four countries in August.
For the period from January to December 2023, HRC imports from the four countries were subject to different dumping duties, with Egyptian material at 30-40%, HRC from Japan at 10-20%, Indian HRC facing duties of 10% and Vietnamese material at 5-15%, according to the notice in the journal.
In 2023, the EU imported 9.22 million tonnes of HRC, according to Global Trade Tracker statistics. And, of the HRC total, Egypt supplied 753,115 tonnes, India 1.17 million tonnes, Japan 1.09 million tonnes and Vietnam contributed 1.16 million tonnes. The combined 4.19 million tonnes amounted to 45% of total HRC imports the EU in 2023.
Market impact
Market participants told Fastmarkets the latest anti-dumping move by the EU was no unexpected and said it will further limit interest in buying overseas HRC.
“There is basically only one ‘safe’ origin to import from now – Turkey,” a buyer in Italy told Fastmarkets. “But the offer prices [from the Turkish mills] right now are totally uncompetitive.”
A second buyer said the “AD probe and changes to safeguard measures will significantly limit demand” for all overseas coil.
“The effect of the [lack of imports to the EU] will start to show in the first quarter of next year [and the lack of imports] is likely to support a domestic HRC price rebound in Europe,” the second buyer added.
In the week to October 25, November-shipment HRC from Turkey was on offer to Italy at €580-590 ($627-637) per tonne CFR, including an anti-dumping duty of 4.70-7.30%, which has been in place since July 2021.
From Asia, offers were reported at €550-570 per tonne CFR to Italy.
In contrast, Italy-origin HRC, with five- or six-week lead times, was offered at a similar levels – around €570-580 per tonne delivered – which would net back to €560-570 per tonne ex-works, with possible discounts of no more than €10 per tonne, Fastmarkets understands.
Buyer ideas of the tradable level were lower, however, at closer to €540-560 per tonne delivered (€530-550 per tonne ex-works).
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy at €546.25 per tonne on October 24, down by €2.13 per tonne from €548.38 per tonne a day earlier and down by €5.63 per tonne week on week and by €6.25 per tonne month on month.
Fastmarkets calculated its corresponding daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe at €549.38 per tonne on Thursday, down by only €0.62 per tonne from €550.00 per tonne a day earlier.
European HRC prices stable amid limited trading
Demand from final consumers remained low, with some mills in Northern Europe still offering end-November-delivery material, sources told Fastmarkets.
Buyers were very cautious and wanting to see the market situation after the international sheet metal exhibition in Hannover, Germany on October 22-25, according to sources.
Mills in Northern Europe were heard offering HRC at €580-590 ($631-642) per tonne ex-works, but were ready to be more flexible in negotiations, Fastmarkets understands.
“Demand is currently so low that mills are selling material at the old prices from before ArcelorMittal’s announcement of a price increase of €40 per tonne for all new bookings,” one buyer source told Fastmarkets.
Producers were initially pushing for offer prices of €40 per tonne higher, but would now be happy to get €10-15 per tonne more.
Buyer estimations of the workable market level were mainly at €540-560 per tonne ex-works.
Some producers shared a more optimistic view on the tradeable market level, saying that consumers who really need to book material for the beginning of next year were ready to pay slightly higher prices.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel HRC index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €555.29 ($604.03) per tonne on Thursday, up by €0.29 per tonne from €555.00 per tonne on Wednesday.
The index was up by €8.12 per tonne week on week, but down by €9.71 per tonne month on month.
In Southern Europe, Fastmarkets’ daily steel HRC index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €551.88 per tonne on Thursday, up by just €0.21 per tonne from €551.67 per tonne on Wednesday.
The Italian index was up by €11.88 per tonne week on week, but down by €13.12 per tonne month on month.
Local suppliers were heard offering HRC at €580-590 per tonne delivered, which nets back to €570-580 per tonne ex-works.
Buyer estimations for the workable market level were lower at €540-555 per tonne ex-works.
Import offers remained uncompetitive, with European customers buying material mainly from the local market, Fastmarkets understands.
Offers from Taiwan, Japan and South Korea were heard at €580-590 per tonne CFR Italy, while Vietnamese HRC was on offer at €555-560 per tonne CFR Italy, according to sources.
Turkish HRC was on offer to Italy at €580-590 per tonne CFR, sources said.
But the workable level for imports was estimated at just €520 per tonne CFR, with some bids heard at that level but no deals confirmed.