European HRC prices inch up as market weighs import restrictions, trade pressures
European domestic hot-rolled coil prices inched up March 13, with market sources weighing the European Commission’s safeguard adjustments and other trade pressures.
Despite earlier hopes that the safeguard review would lead to significant shifts in market dynamics, steel producers have largely welcomed the changes, while importers and traders expressed frustration over quota reductions and increased restrictions on carryover volumes.
A Germany-based distributor said the adjustments are a “balanced plan,” noting that while the changes were not drastic, they reinforced protectionist measures without overtly increasing tariffs.
The market was divided on the impact of the safeguard revisions. A source at a major European mill said expectations for dramatic price changes were unrealistic and that the safeguard measures were “having an effect” but not triggering immediate price hikes. Meanwhile, traders voiced concerns that the reduction of available import quotas—particularly with Russian volumes no longer being reallocated—was limiting supply options.
HRC offers in Northwest Europe were heard at Eur650-660/mt ex-works Ruhr, with tradable values at Eur635-650/mt. In southern Europe, HRC tradable values remained in a similar range, while lower-priced import offers, such as Eur570-580/mt CIF Italy from Asia, were deemed unworkable due to quota constraints and anticipated antidumping measures.
The broader global trade environment is also weighing on the market outlook. While trade tensions with the US may not have an immediate impact on domestic steel pricing, they contribute to the overall uncertainty in the market, a European distributor said.
Looking ahead, sources expect European steel prices to continue rising gradually over the coming weeks, with potential increases of Eur10-20/mt. However, demand remains weak. A German distributor noted that optimism surrounding the new government’s planned stimulus measures—estimated at $500 billion—could support steel demand in the medium term.
Platts assessed HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur630/mt EXW Ruhr, up Eur5 on the day, and in southern Europe at Eur620/mt EXW Italy, stable on the day.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur545/mt CIF Antwerp and in Southern Europe at Eur545/mt CIF Italy, both stable on the day.
Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.
HRC prices stabilize in Europe; buyers skeptical about further increases
Market sources held different views about future price moves for European HRC.
Notably, some suppliers were mulling price rises, pushing June-delivery HRC offers up to €680 ($737.65) per tonne delivered from €660 per tonne delivered.
Buyers, in their place, said that further price rises could not be justified given a lack of demand.
“Steel safeguards on HRC are not as tough as expected – imports will be back, and a weaker dollar against the euro is also supportive of this,” a buyer source in Germany said.
So far, sources reported only limited restocking activity in Northern Europe, mainly hand-to-mouth activity in the spot market amid subdued consumption.
Buyers in Germany and the Benelux area estimated achievable prices at €630-650 per tonne ex-works.
“Yes, there will be tighter supply [of HRC] in Q2 due to the Salzgitter force majeure, ArcelorMittal maintenance, but the market is not going to miss these tonnages unless demand picks up and we need more steel. A further push to increase [HRC] prices should come from demand,” a second buyer said.
As a result, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, at €636.19 per tonne on Thursday, up by €0.10 per tonne from €636.09 per tonne on Wednesday.
The Northern European index was up by €5.25 per tonne week on week and by €32.86 per tonne month on month.
In Southern Europe, meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, was calculated at €620.00 per tonne on Thursday, down negligibly by €0.33 per tonne from €620.33 per tonne on Wednesday.
The index was stable week on week and up by €26.43 per tonne month on month
Offers for May-delivery HRC from two Italian suppliers were reported at €620-640 per tonne delivered (€610-630 per tonne ex-works).
Italian buyers estimated tradeable values at €600-620 per tonne ex-works on Thursday.
One source even said that producers might have to step back to €600-620 per tonne delivered (590-610 per tonne ex-works) shortly, because HRC imports “are coming back.”
Earlier this week, new adjustments to steel safeguard measures in the EU were revealed with HRC restrictions that were deemed to be not tough enough.
As for imports, sources reported May-shipment HRC offers from Indonesia at €540-550 per tonne CFR.
And from Turkey, two buyer sources both reported offers at €580-590 per tonne CFR, including the anti-dumping duty.
“Turkey has a big quota they don’t fully use, so they remain a safe option. And Indonesia [and] Malaysia offers at really competitive prices now, especially considering the weaker dollar against the euro,” a third buyer source said.
Demand for green flat steel muted in Europe, but premiums remain high
Fastmarkets’ methodology defines European green steel as “steel produced with Scope 1, 2 & 3 emissions at a maximum of 0.8 tonne of CO2 per tonne of steel”.
During the assessment week, premiums for such steel were reported at €200-300 ($216.96-325.43) per tonne from major European suppliers.
Buyer sources estimated that achievable premiums for such material were at €100-150 per tonne. But suppliers claimed that the lower end of the range was not workable for electric-arc furnace (EAF)-produced green steel.
Notably, two suppliers told Fastmarkets that they would be willing to knock off no more than €20-30 per tonne from their offers of €200 per tonne.
Buyer sources argued that big tonnages (more than 3,000 tonnes) could be booked with lower premiums – of around €150 per tonne
“The demand [for green steel] is not booming, but we sell 200 tonnes here, 100 tonnes there,” a mill source said.
“Nobody books green steel to stockpile it – it would have been too expensive. So this is back-to-back business – you have a project, you book green steel for it,” the mill source added.
Transactions for flat steel produced with emissions below of 0.7 tonne of CO2 per tonne of steel were reported at €170-180 per tonne, for May-shipment material.
While Nordic countries remained the main demand drivers in Europe, sources have also pointed out that they noted they have heard more inquiries coming from Spain lately.
As a result, Fastmarkets’ assessment for green steel domestic, flat-rolled, differential to HRC index, exw Northern Europe was €150-200 per tonne on Thursday, widening upward from €150-180 per tonne in the previous week.
Meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ assessment of the flat steel reduced carbon emissions differential, exw Northern Europe was €30-60 per tonne on Thursday, unchanged week on week.
For steel produced in blast furnaces, with reduced carbon emissions of 1.4-1.8 tonnes of CO2 per 1 tonne of steel, offers for premiums were reported at €40-70 per tonne during the assessment week.
Notably, premium steel produced with carbon footprint of 1.5 tonnes of CO2 per 1 tonne of steel was reported at €70 per tonne from one supplier.
For steel with produced with 1.8 tonnes of CO2 carbon footprint, the premium was reported at €40 per tonne.
Buyer sources estimated a premium level of €30-60 per tonne, depending on the carbon footprint.
Assofermet: EU should extend safeguards to downstream market
The trade war initiated by the Trump administration could potentially lead to significant market distortions for Europe, Italian steel trade association Assofermet states in its recently released position paper on US president Donald Trump’s enhanced protectionist policies.
The report obtained by Kallanish expresses concerns about the potential short, medium, and long-term effects of the US’s protectionist stance. The execution of US policies is expected to lead to an important redirection of global steel exports to the European Union, potentially prompting the EU to consider countermeasures aimed at Asian countries.
“A similar scenario, which already occurred in 2018, could have particularly serious consequences, since the delicate European economic balance is no longer able to sustain further [domestic] price increases, without risking a further and irreversible loss of competitiveness,” Assofermet warns.
“The part of the economy most at risk is therefore… the EU manufacturing industry that regularly uses steel… in its production. If we continue to protect only the upstream sector, triggering inflationary scenarios…we will continue to destroy the domestic EU market demand as well as exports of EU finished products,” it adds.
It proposes rethinking the existing protection mechanism and extending it downstream. Currently, Europe is focusing its defensive strategies solely on safeguarding the upstream segment of the supply chain.
The US ranks as the second largest export market for European steel producers, representing 16% of total steel exports in 2024. Europe primarily exports premium steel products to the United States that are not produced on the American soil, distinguished by very high costs and performance.
“Consequently, the application of import duties could be easily absorbed by the importer,” the paper suggests.
The ramifications of these tariffs on Europe may result in a notable reduction in EU exports to the US. This could subsequently diminish the demand for raw materials such as scrap and pig iron from mills that might face challenges in finding alternative export markets.
Production levels in the EU are anticipated to decline and the region may need to extend its safeguard measures and anti-dumping duties on imports from the US. The cessation of steel exports from non-EU countries to the US could result in a substantial influx of these materials into the EU, which may lead to considerable market distortions.
In reaction to the US tariffs, it is also plausible that some steel manufacturers in the EU will consider relocating their production operations to the United States.
Natalia Capra France
SSAB to supply fossil-free steel for construction equipment
SSAB says it has entered into an agreement with global construction equipment manufacturer Putzmeister to supply future fossil-free steel for use in manufacturing products such as concrete pump trucks and concrete mixers.
SSAB and Putzmeister have a long history of partnership and technical cooperation, Kallanish understands. By using SSAB’s Strenx high-strength structural steel and Hardox wear plates, Putzmeister has developed very strong and lightweight truck chassis, pump crane booms and concrete mixer drums. The lighter machines increase machine performance but also reduce carbon footprint, SSAB says.
This agreement replaces conventional steel with steel made via Hybrit technology, developed by SSAB with mining company LKAB and energy company Vattenfall, using green hydrogen and fossil-free electricity.
Christian Koehl Germany
Romanian longs prices stable, but rises anticipated due to reduced quota
Following the European Commission’s announcement of decreased tariff-rate quota volumes, the Romanian long steel market has begun to anticipate increased domestic market price movement.
However, no price swings have occurred in Romania, and offers from Romania’s sole rebar producer and traders have remained stable over the last week. On the other hand, with the announcement of quota reductions, some traders anticipate difficult times for the domestic market, while others are keeping an eye on how the market adjusts.
Currently, the sole Romanian rebar producer’s prices have remained stable week on week at around €580-590/mt ex-works, while most traders have kept their rebar prices unchanged week on week at €590-605/mt ex-warehouse, with their wire rod offers stable at €570-595/mt ex-warehouse.
Meanwhile, in the import market, after Turkey sold some rebar to Romania in the previous week at $555-560/mt FOB, Romanian buyers have remained silent on imports this week, probably due to their sufficient supply and recent EU quota changes. However, this week, Turkey’s average rebar price has increased by €5/mt to €545-560/mt CFR Romania, based on a €1 = $1.09 exchange rate and a freight cost of €25-30/mt. In contrast, Bulgaria’s rebar offers have remained stable week on week at €620-630/mt CPT. In addition, Egypt, which had been missing for a few weeks, has returned to the market this week, offering rebar and wire rod at €550-555/mt CPT and €560-565/mt CPT, respectively.
European Commission consultation: Impact of new US tariffs on steel & aluminium
The European Commission has launched an information gathering notice under Regulation (EU) No 654/2014 regarding the new US tariffs on steel and aluminium products and derivatives.
The Commission is assessing the potential impact of these measures and considering possible EU commercial policy responses, including rebalancing measures on specific imports from the US.
This is a critical opportunity for companies affected by these tariffs to provide input and share concerns. If your business is impacted, we encourage you to participate in this consultation and ensure your voice is heard in shaping potential EU trade actions.
📅 Deadline for submissions: March 26, 2025
EU retaliatory measures could hit US pipe
The European Commission has launched an information gathering exercise to gauge stakeholder feedback on possible retaliatory measures to US tariffs, which could impact US steel pipe supply to the EU.
The Donald Trump administration implemented the 25% blanket tariff on US steel imports on 12 March, as expected, Kallanish notes.
The EU has announced countermeasures worth €26 billion ($28.3 billion), to be implemented in two stages. From 1 April, the Commission will allow to lapse the suspension of existing 2018 and 2020 countermeasures worth €8 billion against certain US products. From 13 April, the EU will apply a new package of countermeasures impacting €16 billion of US-origin imports.
Among the products proposed for inclusion in these measures are various HS code 7302 rail products, 7304 seamless pipe products and 7305 and 7306 welded pipe classifications. The overall tonnages are, however, low.
According to Eurostat data, the EU imported up to 22,172 tonnes of these products from the US in 2024, up 53% on-year. The value of imports was €82.4 million ($89.7m), up 43%.
Stakeholders have until 26 March to respond to the proposals, after which the Commission will assess the input and then finalise its draft implementing act and consult its Member States.
The US tariffs will affect a total of €26 billion of EU exports, which corresponds to approximately 5% of total EU goods exports to the US. Based on current import flows, this will result in US importers having to pay up to €6 billion in additional import tariffs, the Commission says.
“We deeply regret this measure,” Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in response to the US tariffs being implemented on Wednesday. “We will always remain open to negotiation … We are ready to engage in meaningful dialogue. I have entrusted Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič to resume his talks to explore better solutions with the US.”
The EU previously extended its suspension of countermeasures on US products in December 2023, to provide time to find an agreement on the Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminium (GASSA). This agreement, widely touted by the EU’s steel industry, is now presumably dead in the water.
Adam Smith Poland
WTO notification confirms EU’s proposed safeguard adjustments
Consultations with interested WTO members will be held on 11-18 March.
The European Union has notified adjustments to its safeguard measures on certain steel imports, with changes set to take effect in two phases, according to the notice published on the WTO website on 12 March, Kallanish notes.
The notification confirms the details provided in the leaked European Commission document earlier this week.
The first set of adjustments will come into force on 1 April, including the division of Category 1 into two subcategories, updates to the list of WTO developing countries excluded from safeguard measures, the removal of access to residual quotas in specific product categories, the redistribution of sanction volumes, and the introduction of quota caps in areas experiencing strong import pressure.
A second phase of changes will take effect on 1 July, when the liberalisation rate will be reduced from 1% to 0.1%. Additionally, the carry-over mechanism for unused quotas will be repealed in categories facing significant import pressure. The safeguard measure itself will remain in place until 30 June 2026, with a planned liberalisation rate of 0.1% per year.
With these changes, the Commission aims to balance trade while stabilising the EU steel industry, which has been affected by weak consumption and global overcapacity. While exporters and users will still have access to duty-free quotas, new limitations will apply to ensure the safeguard measure remains effective. Stakeholders must contact the European Commission within the designated timeframe for further consultation.
Elina Virchenko Turkey
Klöckner plays down Europe price recovery
Klöckner & Co is remaining low-key about the pace of price recovery in Europe. Its chief executive, Guido Kerkhoff, says he is hesitant to describe the development too positively, given the market is still shaky in its effort to stabilise.
“I do not yet see a positive trend on the horizon,” he told Kallanish during a conference call on Wednesday. Prices are picking up but very slowly, because customers remain reserved with making big investments. “The market is still delicate and needs to be preserved and nurtured with care, so to speak,” he said.
It would take a government investment incentive programme to ensure activity picks up. The German-based company is therefore pinning its hopes on the new German government. This is currently being formed in a coalition of the conservative CDU and social democrat SPD parties, as well as possibly one further partner party.
Obvious sectors for investment are residential construction, infrastructure and defence, Kerkhoff said. The latter field is cited increasingly as a cause for public spending. Klöckner recently installed an advanced laser facility in Kassel, mainly targeting agricultural machinery, mechanical engineering, and defence. Moreover, if the war in Ukraine came to an end soon, and the county regained peace, its reconstruction would be a task for foreign steel suppliers, Kerkhoff noted.
The company’s US business had to concede even steeper price falls than in Europe last year, by 40%, but managed to handle them reasonably well due to its shift to higher value-added services. “This would not have been possible six or seven years ago,” Kerkhoff concluded.
Christian Koehl Germany