European HRC Market faces uncertainty amid weak demand, inventory overhang
Domestic European hot-rolled coil prices remained largely stable Jan. 8 as participants grappled with subdued demand and elevated inventory levels. The market’s cautious sentiment is reflected in the mixed pricing signals and the ongoing hesitancy among buyers.
A trader source observed a lack of engagement in the HRC market, where offers around Eur630/mt ex-works Ruhr have been reported, though these figures remained largely unworkable across the broader market.
“The market is constrained by weak demand and substantial inventories, which are dampening transactional activity,” an Austrian source said.
A Germany-based distributor source expressed skepticism regarding the current HRC offer levels from domestic mills, suggesting that realistic, workable prices are closer to Eur540-550/mt, influenced by the persistent low demand.
Platts assessed North European HRC prices at Eur560/mt ex-works Ruhr Jan. 7, stable on the day. Similarly, Southern European domestic HRC prices held steady at Eur560/mt ex-works Italy.
Interest in imports remained weak, with the source noting that import offers are not generating significant interest, as buyers remain cautious about committing to new bookings.
Imported HRC prices in Northwest Europe increased Jan. 8 to Eur535/mt CIF Antwerp, while prices in Southern Europe remained stable on the day at Eur530/mt CIF Italy.
Discussing the market interest in carbon-accounted steel, participants continued to report a wider range of offer levels in the market, depending on carbon content. A range of offers for carbon-accounted HRC was heard on the day, with the most competitive at Eur60-70/mt, CO2e content below 0.8 mt, scopes 1-3, for mass-balanced material.
Higher offers were also heard in the market at Eur120/mt with CO2e content below 0.8 mt across scopes 1-3 and at Eur300/mt for CO2e content around 0 mt across scopes 1-2, but using mass-balancing approach, However, sources remained skeptical that these price levels were workable for the wider market, instead citing that due to both higher prices as a result of the lower carbon content, the material would only attract niche buyers or be required for special projects applications.
Platts assessed Northwest European hot-rolled coil carbon-accounted at Eur620/mt ex-works Ruhr Jan. 8, stable day on day.
European HRC prices largely flat; market remains quiet
The market slowly restarted after the Christmas and New Year holiday lull, but trading remained almost non-existent.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €566.25 per tonne on Wednesday, up by €0.42 per tonne from €565.83 ($587.92) per tonne the previous day.
The index was up by €1.25 per tonne week on week and by €2.08 per tonne month on month.
Not many producers have followed the move of ArcelorMittal, who announced an increase in its HRC offers by €30 per tonne across Europe just before the holidays, Fastmarkets understands.
Offer prices from ArcelorMittal with lead times in February-March were heard at €630 per tonne ex-works or delivered in Northern Europe.
“We have offers from the [Northern European] mills at €580 per tonne ex-woks. And even at these levels, the traded volumes are low. Demand remains very dull,” a buyer source based in Northern Europe told Fastmarkets.
The source added that mills could easily accept €570 per tonne ex-works for larger volumes.
A second buyer source also cited an offer from a producer based in the Benelux region at €580 per tonne ex-works.
“If you are insistent, you can get a discount of €20 per tonne ex-works,” the second buyer source said.
According to this source, the workable level for HRC in Northern Europe could be even lower, at €540-560 per tonne ex-works.
No major deals were heard in the market.
In terms of imports, India was heard offering HRC with March shipment at €540-550 per tonne CFR Antwerp.
And Turkish HRC was on offer at €560 per tonne CFR Antwerp.
These offers were considered not workable, however, because of long delivery times and the small difference with the domestic prices.
“If the European prices do not move up, it will be difficult to import any volumes,” the first buyer told Fastmarkets.
Fastmarkets calculated its corresponding daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy at €562.50 per tonne on Wednesday, unchanged from Tuesday.
The index was stable week on week, but up by €2.08 per tonne month on month.
The HRC market in Italy was also very quiet after the holidays.
“I have not heard any fresh offers from the Italian suppliers so far. We should probably wait until next week to spot some activity,” an Italy-based buyer source told Fastmarkets.
Tradable values were estimated by buyers at €560-570 per tonne ex-works, depending on the supplier.
The market for imported coil was muted.
Import offers of HRC to Italy similar to those reported for the Northern European market were heard.
Buyers estimated tradeable values for imports at €520-530 per tonne CFR, but no such offers were available in the market.
European HRC prices hold at pre-holidays levels; mills report improved order books
Tradeable values were reported by buyers and sellers at €560-590 ($580-611) per tonne ex-works on Tuesday, depending on a supplier and lead times.
“There are no major changes in the market since the end of last year,” a buyer in Germany said.
Mill sources said that a pick-up in trading before the holiday closures has allowed them to improve their order books.
“A lot of customers booked [HRC] in December to secure lower prices,” a second buyer in Germany said.
“The market at least is still pretty dormant,” a mills source in Northern Europe said. “But booking levels are ok here; almost sold out for the first quarter[-delivery] coil,” the second buyer added.
But higher offers of €610-630 per tonne ex-works were not yet sealed in deals and most buyer sources deemed such levels unworkable.
“Too early to say if higher offers will be accepted, but so far market fundamentals are not favorable,” a steel service center source in Northern Europe said.
As a result, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €565.83 per tonne on Tuesday, unchanged day on day.
The index was also by €0.83 per tonne week on week and by €1.66 per tonne month on month.
Fastmarkets calculated its corresponding daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy at €562.50 per tonne on Tuesday, unchanged compared with the previous calculation on Monday.
The index was also stable week on week, but up by €2.08 per tonne month on month.
The Italian market was also quiet on Tuesday, with no major changes reported.
“The market has just restarted after holidays; we expect more clarity [on prices] in the next days,” a third buyer source said.
Tradable values were estimated by buyers at €560-570 per tonne ex-works, depending on the supplier.
The market for imported coil was also quiet.
Two sources reported offers from India for March-shipment HRC at €540-550 per tonne CFR.
One buyer reported an offer from Turkey at €560 per tonne CFR, including the anti-dumping duty.
Buyers estimated tradeable values for imports at €520-530 per tonne CFR. No such offers, however, were reported on Tuesday.
Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan quickly exhaust EU HRC quota
Vietnam, Japan, and Taiwan face immediate EU tariff-rate quota (TRQ) pressure as hot rolled coil orders from those origins are already oversubscribed for the first quarter by 9%, 56%, and 13%, respectively, as of 6 January.
This is against new EU allocations of 138,766 tonnes each for Q1, Kallanish notes from the EU customs portal.
Vietnam has allocated 150,920t out of a TRQ of 138,766t, exceeding its quota by 12,154t (9%).
Japan is showing significant oversubscription, overshooting the quota by 56%, with 216,131t awaiting allocation – exceeding its 138,766t TRQ by 77,365t.
Taiwan has allocated 157,444t, exceeding its 138,766t TRQ by 18,678t (13%).
Egypt, with a TRQ of 138,766t in the “other countries” category, has 86,617t of HRC submitted for allocation, leaving 52,149t or 38% of its quota remaining.
Meanwhile, Australia, Switzerland, the United States, Canada, and Libya retain 100% of their allocated quotas for Q1.
As a result, the “other countries” category shows rapid usage, with 611,112t, or 49% of the allocated Q1 quota awaiting allocation.
Countries with larger quotas exhibit minimal utilisation rates, with availability ranging between 87-99%. Collectively, 46,236t have been submitted for clearance, with South Korea accounting for the largest volume at 24,776t.
Overall, a total of 657,348t are pending allocation.
“A clear picture will be only shown by 10 January. It seems not all EU customs offices are working at the same speed for import clearing,” one trader notes.
| Origin | Quota 01.01 – 31.03.2025 | Awaiting allocation | Available TRQ | Avaliable TRQ % |
| Russia | – | – | – | – |
| Türkiye | 464,844 | 9,383 | 455,461 | 98 |
| India | 295,145 | 6,029 | 289,115 | 98 |
| South Korea | 184,310 | 24,776 | 159,534 | 87 |
| United Kingdom | 154,182 | 1,866 | 152,316 | 99 |
| Serbia | 163,621 | 4,183 | 159,438 | 97 |
| Other countries, inc | ||||
| Egypt | 138,766 | 86,617 | 52,149 | 38 |
| Vietnam | 138,766 | 150,920 | -2,154 | -9 |
| Japan | 138,766 | 216,131 | -77,365 | -56 |
| Taiwan | 138,766 | 157,444 | -18,678 | -13 |
| Australia | 138,766 | – | 138,766 | 100 |
| Switzerland | 138,766 | – | 138,766 | 100 |
| United States | 138,766 | – | 138,766 | 100 |
| Libya | 138,766 | – | 138,766 | 100 |
| Canada | 138,766 | – | 138,766 | 100 |
| Total other countries | 1,248,894 | 611,112 | 637,782 | 51 |
| Total | 2,510,995 | 657,348 | 1,853,647 | 74 |
Source: EU TARIC, as of 7 January. Calculated by Kallanish
Elina Virchenko UAE
European HRC prices unchanged amid holiday inactivity
Most market participants were still on leave, planning to return after Monday January 6, Fastmarkets understands.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €565.00 ($588.48) per tonne on Tuesday, unchanged since December 20.
The index was up by €5.00 per tonne month on month.
It is unclear whether new, higher offers of HRC across Europe will be accepted by buyers after the market restarts in the first days of January.
Shortly before the Christmas and New Year holidays, ArcelorMittal announced an increase of €30 per tonne for offers of HRC with February/March delivery across Europe.
Another integrated mill in Northern Europe was heard to have followed the move, Fastmarkets understands.
Thus, the latest official offers for February/March-delivery HRC from Northern European mills were heard at €600-630 per tonne ex-works or delivered. But tradable levels just before the winter holiday break were heard at €560-580 per tonne ex-works.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy at €562.50 per tonne on Tuesday, unchanged since December 23.
The index was up by €4.17 per tonne month on month.
Local suppliers’ latest official offers for HRC with delivery in February and March were heard at €580-620 per tonne delivered, which would net back to €570-610 per tonne ex-works.
Buyers’ estimations of the workable market level for such material were at €570-580 per tonne delivered, which is equivalent to €560-570 per tonne ex-works.
The market for imported HRC also remained quiet during the winter holiday slowdown.
Industry sources expected that the appetite for import bookings would remain low due to recent developments with safeguards and a pending anti-dumping probe against Egypt, India, Japan and Vietnam.
The latest import offers of February-shipment HRC from Turkey to Italy were heard at $590 per tonne CFR including the anti-dumping duty.
Just before the holiday break across Europe, South Korea-origin coil was on offer to Italy at €580 per tonne CFR, industry sources told Fastmarkets.
In mid-December, a transaction for Ukrainian HRC to Italy was heard at €530 per tonne CFR.
European HRC market steady: imports limited, Service Centers face challenges
Hot rolled coil prices in Italy and wider Europe have remained largely stable on-week, following a moderate increase in transaction values observed earlier this month.
Producers in Italy have strived to increase prices to €600-610/tonne ($624.9-635.4) delivered in December; however, this price point has not yet been reflected in contracts, according to knowledgeable sources.
The market is currently experiencing a lull, characterised by a lack of transactions as the holiday period approaches, during which producers will initiate extended production stoppages.
Contract prices are currently at approximately €560-570/t delivered, with any bids falling below this threshold being declined. Numerous buyers indicate there are no accessible import alternatives other than Turkish-origin HRC, which is being quoted at €580/t cfr duty paid. Service centres that spoke to Kallanish are not considering purchases from the import market, as even the prices delivered from Turkey appear to be less competitive compared to domestic HRC.
On 1 January, EU HRC buyers will clear material imported from Asia through customs. A source believes the tonnage of HRC at ports that exceeds quotas is limited after a significant reduction in purchases from Asia in recent months, driven by EU import restrictions.
Numerous service centre buyers in Italy have ceased operations this week and are continuing to implement workforce layoffs. A number of mill customers are suspending operations for one month. Downstream demand is reported low since November.
Meanwhile, ArcelorMittal is increasing coil prices by €20/t in Europe for delivery in the new year. Lead times at the steelmaker’s plants in Europe are now extended to February and March. For some downstream products, a few allocations are left for March and bookings will spill over into the second quarter.
For the few February allocations left of HRC, new asking prices are at €630/t base delivered. Prices for hot-dipped galvanised coil are also being pushed up, to €750/t base delivered.
Natalia Capra France
European HRC prices flat in quiet market
Sources said the increase in trading activity was not due to improved demand or an economic upturn, but due to expectations of longer lead times at some suppliers.
“Some steelmakers will extend their winter break, which will lead to longer lead times [for HRC],” a buyer in the Benelux region of Northern Europe told Fastmarkets.
Offers for HRC with lead times in the first quarter 2025 were heard at €570-600 ($598-630) per tonne ex-works in Northern Europe on Friday, but sources said there was “no information about contracts starting with a ‘6’ so far.”
One supplier in the Benelux region reported hearing of deals for HRC being done at €570-580 per tonne ex-works.
A supplier in Germany, meanwhile, said deals had been done at €560-570 per tonne ex-works.
Buyer estimates of the tradable level in Northern Europe were heard at €550-580 per tonne ex-works on Friday.
“The market mood is rather depressed, especially in Germany, where many companies are announcing staff lay-offs,” a source in Germany said.
And there was said to be fierce downstream competition between steel service centers (SSCs) because of high inventories and cashflow needs.
“There is a battle for orders between SSCs,” a third buyer said.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, at €562.50 per tonne on December 13, down by €0.63 per tonne from €563.13 per tonne on December 12.
The index was down by €1.67 per tonne week on week but up by €4.17 per tonne month on month.
No major progress was reported regarding the long-term contracts negotiations between steel mills and automakers
Buyers were hoping to achieve a discount for first-half and full-year 2025 contracts, with several original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) reporting a targeted decline of €100-150 per tonne.
Mills were hoping for a “double digit” discount, Fastmarkets understands.
“Mills have to keep in mind that the price gap between spot and contract prices is too wide right now,” a fourth buyer told Fastmarkets.
Contracts for the second half of 2024 were done at €730-750 per tonne, sources said.
“We are in the middle of negotiations with the OEMs. [Contract] prices for HRC will be lower [than] 2024, but not by as much as initially expected,” a mill source said.
“Negotiations [with the automotive sector] are very difficult and might extend into January,” a mill source said.
In Southern Europe, meanwhile, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, at €561.50 per tonne on Friday, down by €0.38 per tonne from €561.88 per tonne on the previous day.
The Italian index was up by €1.08 per tonne week on week and up by €7.50 per tonne month on month.
One local steelmaker in Italy was aiming for €600-640 per tonne delivered (€590-630 per tonne ex-works) for February-March delivery coil, sources said,
depending on the tonnage and client.
One integrated mill in Italy raised its offer prices for first-quarter delivery coil to €570 per tonne ex-works, compared with €550 per tonne ex-works at the start of December,
Buyers, meanwhile estimated the tradable base price for HRC at €570-580 per tonne delivered (€560-570 per tonne ex-works).
The market for imported coil in Europe remained quiet in the week to Friday due persistent trade restrictions, long lead times and uncompetitive prices compared with European suppliers.
“We expect reliance on European material will only increase in the upcoming months,” a buyer in Italy said.
Turkish suppliers were offering HRC at €550 per tonne CFR, duty paid, for tonnages of 10,000 tonnes or more, sources said.
And offers of HRC for February shipment from Southeast Asia to Italy came in at €580-600 per tonne CFR in the seven days to Friday.
EU HRC prices hold as the industry prepares for holiday production stops
European hot-rolled coil prices remained largely stable on Dec. 13 as the European flat steel industry prepares for holiday production stops to take place, according to sources.
“More mills are preparing to shut production for one to two weeks longer than usual production stops,” a Germany-based service center source said.
There has been a slight increase in demand for European mills as interest in imports has fallen due to the risk of antidumping investigations, quotas, and long lead times. “Imports carry longer lead times and higher than products from domestic mills,” said the source.
“Why buy from imports when they are at the same price level as domestic mills?” questioned the source. Demand for European flat steel products has risen slightly on supply-side factors, including a reduction in capacity by domestic mills in recent weeks, according to sources.
European flat steel price movements over the past few months have changed with “the introduction of the Chinese stimulus package, political decisions to improve the European economy, and lower European Central Bank interest rates designed to stimulate the economy,” said a Germany-based service center source.
Platts assessed Northwest European HRC at Eur560/mt ex-works Ruhr, stable on the day.
Platts assessed Southern European HRC at Eur555/mt EXW Italy, down Eur5 on the day.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur540/mt CIF Antwerp, stable on the day.
Meanwhile, Platts assessed imported HRC in South Europe at Eur540/mt CIF Italy, also stable on the day.
EU domestic HRC prices climb; 2025 outlook remains mixed
Domestic European hot-rolled coil prices climbed Dec. 10, while market fundamentals remained largely unchanged, as sources focused on the wider uncertainty and discussed the need for domestic production cuts.
“Business is dead quiet, we don’t expect much of an increase in requests now,” a service center source said. “There is a lot of uncertainty ahead beyond steel with Trump and now for Germany, everyone is waiting for a new government, so we don’t expect much of a price change until the elections in February.”
The same source referred to an oversupplied market while sharing expectations for potential mill capacity cuts across Northern Europe.
“It is impacting all types of steel, despite the market being oversupplied and margins being so poor, mills are still producing, with a large amount of output being green as they try to keep their carbon certificates,” the service center source said.
“European steelmakers are struggling with low HRC demand and low prices while imports are limited due to the risk on quotas and domestic rates are comparable. The green steel market is growing slowly, but we are expecting a weak first quarter in 2025,” a German distributor said, referring to both Northern and Southern European markets.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur540/mt CIF Antwerp, stable on the day.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Southern Europe at Eur540/mt CIF Italy, unchanged on the day.
Market participants in both regions continued to refer to higher mill offers but cited the wider and more competitive price levels that continued to be heard in the market, adding pressure to potential price increases.
However, a mill source argued this was due to higher stock levels and limited demand opportunities further down the value chain.
“Service centers are so aggressive in getting rid of their high volume, that they can’t afford to buy material at the new higher prices — so it’s creating a squeeze,” the mill source said. “The market cannot continue without capacity cuts, we need higher prices, especially if we are looking to decarbonize further.”
Platts assessed Northwest European HRC at Eur557.50/mt ex-works Ruhr Dec. 10, up Eur7.50 on the day.
Platts assessed domestic HRC in Southern Europe at Eur560/mt ex-works Italy, up Eur5 on the day.
Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.
European HRC market awaits clarity on future developments; price lacks clear direction
Buyers were expecting to see how negotiations on long-term contracts between automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and steelmakers would develop for the first half and full year of 2025.
The outcome of the negotiations is expected to set the tone for trading in the spot market, according to industry sources.
Buyers were hoping to achieve a discount of around €100 per tonne for first-half and full-year 2025 contracts, while mills are targeting a more minor reduction of €50 per tonne or a price rollover in some cases, Fastmarkets understands.
Although one producer source told Fastmarkets that they had already managed to sign some contracts with the automotive OEMs and the achieved price was described to be “just a two-digit decrease,” negotiations were still continuing.
According to industry sources, the negotiations would be fully completed in January.
January is also expected to bring more clarity regarding imported volumes of HRC, most of which will be customs cleared in the first month of 2025, a buyer source told Fastmarkets. Thus, there would be more transparency in the market on HRC availability.
Import offers of HRC to Europe remained uncompetitive, which was expected to support domestic prices, the buyer added.
Meanwhile, mills in Northern Europe continued to offer HRC for delivery in the first quarter of 2025 at €600-620 ($633-654) per tonne ex-works, according to industry sources.
Mills were not willing to give significant discounts on their spot market offers due to the continuing negotiations with the automotive OEMs, Fastmarkets understands.
Buyers’ estimations of the workable market level were lower, at €550-570 per tonne ex-works.
However, trading remained limited, and no major deals were heard in the market.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe at €564.17 per tonne on Friday, up by €4.17 per tonne from €560.00 per tonne on Thursday.
The index was also up by €4.17 per tonne week on week and up by €5.42 per tonne month on month.
In Southern Europe, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy at €560.42 per tonne on Friday, down by €2.08 per tonne from €562.50 per tonne on Thursday.
The index was up by €2.09 per tonne week on week and up by €8.75 per tonne month on month.
Trading in Italy was also slow on Friday, Fastmarkets understands.
One Italian supplier continued to offer HRC for the first quarter of next year at €600 per tonne delivered, which would net back to €590 per tonne ex-works, Fastmarkets understands.
But a second supplier was heard to be accepting bookings at €550 per tonne ex-works.
Buyer estimations of the workable market level were at €550-570 per tonne ex-works.
No fresh import offers were heard in the market.
