EU Steel Distribution activity stabilized, confidence in a sustained recovery remains weak
The latest European Federation of Steel, Tubes and Metals Distribution & Trade (EUROMETAL) Market Sentiment Survey for October 2025 reveals a cautious mood among European steel distributors.
While current market activity appears to have stabilized after months of decline, confidence in a sustained recovery remains weak. The industry continues to face fragile demand, low visibility, and defensive strategies heading into the final quarter of the year.
The assessment of current business activity held steady in October, marking the second consecutive month without further deterioration. Although activity remains slightly below neutral, this stability suggests that the market may have reached its lowest point following the sharp decline over the summer.
Outlook for Q4 turns slightly weaker
Expectations for the next quarter slipped modestly, reversing the cautious optimism recorded in September. The softening sentiment indicates continued uncertainty over demand and economic headwinds across major EU markets, with distributors maintaining a wait-and-see approach.
Inventory outlooks remain largely unchanged, with most distributors pursuing defensive stock strategies and expecting stable volumes. However, price expectations rose for the third consecutive month, showing the strongest positive reading since early spring 2025.
This trend suggests that distributors anticipate moderate price increases in the coming months, potentially reflecting tightening supply and restocking cycles in Q4.
Industry remains cautious despite improving price sentiment
The October survey highlights a sector in holding pattern, where stability in operations contrasts with subdued forward confidence. Although sentiment on pricing is improving, distributors remain wary amid weak demand fundamentals and limited visibility for recovery.
According to EUROMETAL, the continuation of this cautious optimism could mark the first stage of market consolidation – but only if underlying demand begins to recover in late 2025.
EURANIMI: ‘Shortages and skyrocketing prices’ from CBAM, new steel import quota
As part of the EU’s “plan to address the negative trade-related effects of global overcapacity on the EU steel market” published on October 7, the EU proposes for import quotas to drop by 50% – and 60% for stainless steel – and out-of-quota levies to rise from 25% to 50%.
The existing EU steel safeguard measures have been in place since 2018 and are intended to protect EU steelmakers from a potential surge in imports. They are set to run until June 30 2026, and a new trade regime with tighter quotas is expected to replace it. However, several European stats have been pushing for earlier introduction of new trade regime, Fastmarkets reported.
“We heard April 1 [2026] as a possible date of a new system coming into force, but it might not be feasible, considering the complexity of the new system. July 1 2026 looks like a more realistic date [for new trade regime introduction].,” a steelmaker source told Fastmarkets.
If the existing safeguard measures are not replaced by the proposed new trade regime, it “would leave a substantial gap in the level of protection currently afforded to the EU steel industry,” the European Commission warned on October 7 in its draft regulation aimed at addressing the negative trade-related effects of global overcapacity on the EU steel market.
As such, the Commission proposes to introduce “an appropriate and effective protective measure beyond 30 June 2026 that will contribute to preserving a competitive and sustainable EU steel industry,” in line with suggestions first made in the Steel and Metals Action Plan (SMAP), published in March 2025.
And, crucially for EURANIMI, this will begin after the introduction of the EU’s CBAM policy “which, alone, will easily drive steel prices up by an additional 10% or more when it takes effect on January 1 2026,” the association said in a statement.
EURANIMI states that, combined, the two policies will result in “skyrocketing prices and structural shortages for the European manufacturing industry.” This will occur through lack of capacity within the EU, an influx of cheap imports of finished products into the EU – that are also exempt from CBAM liability – and a loss of European competitiveness. In addition, European exporters could lose market share through heightened costs.
To prevent any further European deindustrialization, EURANIMI requests the European Commission to reconsider its proposal and extend the quota to include end products.
They suggest applying a 50% import duty, calculated based on the steel content of imported products containing at least 20% steel. This would “ensure European manufacturers are not penalized simply because they produce within the Union,” the statement said.
“Protecting EU steel production is legitimate, but not at the expense of the manufacturing industry. Otherwise, we will lose even more production, jobs and autonomy. A strong steel industry exists by virtue of a strong European market,” Rob Greve, executive board member of EURANIMI said in the press release.
European steel distributors federation EUROMETAL has earlier made a similar request to the Commission to include steel derivatives in the scope of both CBAM and the new trade regime to protect the European manufacturing industry.
On October 21 EUROMETAL sent another letter to the European Commission, warning that the proposed safeguard measures risk “accelerating the displacement of EU downstream industry” unless equivalent protection is extended to steel derivatives and finished products.
The federation said the current framework “leaves a significant vulnerability” by shielding primary steel but not the companies that process it, exposing EU manufacturers to cheaper imports of pre-processed and finished goods. EUROMETAL called on the Commission to immediately extend safeguard coverage to include downstream steel-based products, warning that without such action, Europe could become a “dumping ground for low-cost, high-impact processed steel products.”
In the meantime, the European steel market has already started feeling the effects of CBAM and the new trade regime, with flat steel prices in particular climbing up gradually, driven by a shifting trading framework, while real demand remained subdued.
For example, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €602.50 per tonne ($701) on Tuesday, up slightly from €602.00 per tonne on Monday October 27. The index was up by €7.50 per tonne week on week and by €24.79 per tonne month on month.
Local suppliers were looking to achieve €620-650 per tonne ex-works for January delivery material.
European CRC market braces for steeper price rises when new trade regime, CBAM reshape supply dynamics
Price rises were “very likely,” they added, because the CRC market in Europe is traditionally dominated by imports. especially for base grades. And the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), a new trade regime, and a pending anti-dumping investigation that covers nearly 70% of traditional import flows, have the potential to gradually shift the balance in that market.
Northern Europe
Mills in Northern Europe were heard offering CRC for delivery in the first quarter of 2025 at €730-750 per tonne ex-works, sources said.
And most first-tier suppliers were already sold out for November-December delivery coil, Fastmarkets understands.
But sources said the new price levels were not being achieved in deals and buyer estimates of the workable market level came in at €680-700 per tonne ex-works.
“Offers of CRC from European mills were very rare due to the high cost of production and tough competition with imports in commodity grade market,” a buyer in Germany said.
And a mill source said: “Batch annealing [the heat treatment procedure for CRC production] is very energy-intensive and, therefore, CRC production is not commercially viable [and] we’re unable to match the import prices.”
Most EU mills use the batch annealing process to make CRC, with only three suppliers able to make CRC via continuous annealing, which is more energy-efficient.
“Mills are reducing our output of commodity-grade CRC and are instead focusing on special grades and thicknesses, or producing more HDG,” a buyer source in Europe said.
However, sellers told Fastmarkets that local mills in Europe will be able to “fill the gap” left in the market by lower import volumes.
“[A lot of CRC] is used to produce very basic-quality, value, galvanized coil, which we won’t need to do if the price of CRC increases,” one seller said. “It depends on the balance that you make.”
Buyers agree that the CRC market will be one of the most “difficult” ones, once CBAM comes in, with prices likely to climb fast.
“CRC will be critical market, especially at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second,” a second buyer in Germany said. “That’s when buying new imports will get risker because of the new trade regime,” which is widely expected to come into force on July 1, 2026.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel cold-rolled coil domestic, exw Northern Europe was €690-700 tonne on Wednesday, up by €10-20 per tonne
compared to €670-690 per tonne the previous week.
Southern Europe
In Southern Europe, mills were also pushing for higher prices, with some buyers suggesting bullish moves will be successful due to a lack of alternative sources of supply.
“In Italy, there is basically only one reliable supplier for cold-rolled coil, so without imports there are not so many options,” an Italian buyer said.
Offers were reported at a base price of €750 per tonne ex-works in Italy for January delivery CRC.
No deals have been confirmed at that level yet, but Fastmarkets understands that local suppliers are now sold out for 2025.
In Spain and Portugal, offers were heard at a base price of €730-750 per tonne ex-works.
Buyers in Southern Europe estimated achievable prices for January at €690-710 per tonne ex-works. But suppliers have argued that prices below €700 per tonne ex-works won’t be possible.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel cold-rolled coil, domestic, exw Southern Europe was €690-700 per tonne on Wednesday, up by €10-20 per tonne from €670-690 per tonne on October 22.
Imports
Import CRC offers were scarce in the week to Wednesday, mainly due to the impending introduction of CBAM and other trade measures.
Additionally, CRC from India, Japan, Taiwan, Turkey and Vietnam is subject to an anti-dumping investigation, leaving European buyers looking for alternative suppliers.
Sources reported hearing CRC on offer from Pakistan at €635 per tonne CFR to Southern Europe, excluding CBAM costs.
Offers from South Korea, meanwhile, were heard at €570-580 per tonne CFR to Antwerp, excluding CBAM costs – although this price could not be widely confirmed prior to publication.
Japanese coil was sold at “slightly below $700 per tonne CFR to Italy,” excluding CBAM cots, sources said, while offers for CRC from Japan were heard a $720 per tonne CFR to Italy.
Fastmarkets’ price assessment for steel cold-rolled coil, import, cfr main port Southern Europe was €590-620 per tonne on Wednesday, stable week-on-week.
EU underestimates new safeguard measure price impact
The new safeguard measure the EU proposes to implement in 2026 will be exclusively in the interest of steelmakers, and much to the disadvantage of steel users, says German consultant Andreas Schneider.
“The European Commission has adopted all steelmakers’ demands to an extent hardly seen before in the interest of one particular industry,” Schneider writes in his blog on Stahlmarkt Consult. According to his calculations, imports of flat products will be reduced by 8.5 million tonnes/year, equalling more than 10% of EU consumption.
It is clear that all EU mills will use these conditions to bring up their prices, Schneider states. “Steel buyers need to adjust their costs forecasts for 2026 notably upwards,” Kallanish reads in the blog. He cites an estimate from a European Commission document, which predicts a price increase of 3.25%, which he calls “very much understated”.
He argues that Europe’s core crisis – a lack of industrial demand – will be aggravated by the measures, as they fail to also cover steel-containing manufactured goods, otherwise known as steel derivatives. This will exacerbate the cost disadvantages of EU fabricators against international competition, he concludes.
That point is also underlined by Alexander Julius, president of EUROMETAL. Unlike Schneider, he advocates safeguard measures in principle, but criticises that they stop short of including steel derivatives. “If steel derivatives are not added to the measures, I wonder who the European mills want to sell their steel to in future,” he said in a recent BBC interview.
He noted that exports of steel derivatives from China to Europe have grown by 20% annually in recent years.
Christian Koehl Germany
Italian longs flatten amid weak demand, quiet exports
Italian long steel prices have flattened after modest increases earlier this month failed to gain traction, as weak consumption continues to weigh on the market.
Demand for merchant bar remains structurally subdued, while sections and rebar are also seeing limited activity. Attempts to raise merchant bar prices by €10-20/tonne ($11.6-23.2/t) in October have largely fallen flat, market sources tell Kallanish. Domestic prices are now stabilising at around €650-660/t, ex-works, including size extras. Sources report the presence, particularly in the south, of lower-priced Turkish merchant bar.
Sections prices are likewise steady, but European producers continue to face pressure on margins as production costs remain high. Market participants describe October as a “quiet month” for sales. “It was not a catastrophe, but not a strong month for sales either,” one source says.
Export activity has also been muted, with central European demand weak and Germany, traditionally a key buyer of Italian longs, “stuck”, according to a source. German buyers are reportedly absorbing far smaller volumes than usual from Italy.
The first category of sections in the domestic market is holding at €740-750/t delivered on average.
Meanwhile, Spanish suppliers remain active in the Italian market for both merchant bar and beams, offering prices at roughly €30/t below domestic levels. Their competitive presence continues to add pressure to Italian mills struggling to pass through higher production costs to end-users.
Natalia Capra France
Bauta Metal: New Norwegian player opens service centre in Vestnes
Norwegian company Bauta Metal has officially inaugurated its upgraded steel cutting and storage facility in Vestnes, Møre og Romsdal, on Norway’s west coast.
Positioned between the cities of Molde and Ålesund, the facility lies at the heart of the Norwegian maritime cluster and shipbuilding industry, Kallanish understands. With a deepwater quay and direct access to the region’s main highways, the location offers significant logistics advantages for customers, Bauta Metals says. It acquired the site in 2024 and says it has since upgraded it to a state-of-the-art standard.
The 3,200-square-meter production hall is equipped with crane capacities and advanced machinery for shot blasting and priming. It has a plasma cutter with two cutting robots and a 3.6 x 34-metre cutting table capable of handling plate up to 300mm thick. It features Norway’s only 5-axis fibre laser, designed for plate up to 2,000 x 6,000 mm. The facility also includes industrial saws for cutting pipes and profiles.
In addition, it has a 2,000-square-meter storage hall for aluminium and stainless steel, plus 20,000 square meters of outdoor storage.
Bauta Metal is a new activity within the larger Norwegian conglomerate Bauta Group, which is present in construction, fish farming, and much more. It therefore notes that the inauguration included a symbolic moment with the cutting of the first steel for the closed Varig fish cage, developed by Bauta Fishfarms.
Christian Koehl Germany
CSN acquires Spanish flat steel producer Galvacolor from Cristian Lay
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN), Brazil’s largest industrial conglomerate, has announced its acquisition of Spanish steel producer Galvacolor from CL Grupo Industrial (Cristian Lay). The transaction marks a renewed interest by CSN in the Spanish market, subject to approval by the Spanish National Markets and Competition Commission (CNMC), which was officially notified on October 21.
Located in Jerez de los Caballeros (Badajoz), Galvacolor specializes in the production of flat steel coils, offering a portfolio of four core products: pickled and oiled, cold rolled, galvanized, and pre-painted steel. The company was acquired by CL Grupo Industrial in 2020 and relaunched with an initial €20 million investment following several years of inactivity.
While Galvacolor reported revenues of €95 million in 2024 — down 16.65% year-on-year — the company also posted operating losses of €7.4 million and a negative net equity of €21.57 million. However, a €31 million shareholder loan from Grupo Gallardo Balboa helped stabilize its balance sheet.
This divestment aligns with CL Grupo Industrial’s 2025–2027 strategic plan, which aims to drive €200 million in investments and focus on sustainable growth. Its Steel Division remains one of its largest revenue generators, alongside the Packaging Division, and is undergoing significant transformation driven by innovation and sustainability.
For CSN, the acquisition of Galvacolor is a return to the Iberian industrial landscape. A decade ago, CSN had shown interest in Grupo Gallardo’s assets, including Cementos Balboa in Extremadura and Corrugados Azpeitia and Corrugados Lasao in the Basque Country.
With over €7 billion in annual revenue, an EBITDA of €533 million, and a workforce exceeding 20,000 employees, CSN is a vertically integrated giant active in steel, mining, logistics, cement, and energy. Headquartered in Brazil, it also maintains operations in Germany and Portugal, and its shares are traded on the São Paulo (B3) and New York Stock Exchanges (NYSE).
Source: eleconomista.es
Poland sanctions steel firms bypassing EU Russia ban
Poland has imposed autonomous sanctions, in addition to EU measures, on STEELTRADE Sp. z o.o. – formerly EMK Group – and OMNI GRP Sp. z o.o. This is for indirectly supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine through exports and re-exports of metal and steel products banned under EU sanctions.
Poland’s National Revenue Administration reports that STEELTRADE and OMNI GRP exported steel sheet, plate, and flat-rolled products made of alloyed and non-alloyed steel or cast iron, including DILLIDUR high-strength abrasion-resistant sheets. The firms may also have exported Uddeholm Dievar steel, a premium-grade alloy valued for its exceptional strength, lightness, and durability, widely used in defecse manufacturing. Authorities therefore presume these materials were destined for Russian defence factories, indirectly supporting the country’s military industry.
STEELTRADE, registered in 2019 and controlled by Belarusian citizen Uladzimir Liashchuk, exported nearly PLN 30 million ($8.25m) worth of steel to Russia in 2021-22, later redirecting over PLN 110m to Kazakhstan and then to a Hong Kong intermediary re-exporting to Russia, according to Polish authorities. Over 200 shipments reportedly ended up in Russia.
OMNI GRP, founded in 2022 and led by Andrei Karpovich with Liashchuk and Veranika Pental, carried out similar exports to Turkey, China, and Kazakhstan, with intermediaries supplying Russia.
The sanctions, announced on 7 October, aim to curb Russia’s industrial potential and limit its access to critical steel inputs, Kallanish notes.
Elina Virchenko UAE
Protectionism risks steel substitution, higher costs: ISTA/NSA meeting
Rising protectionism in the UK and European markets risks steel substitution and higher costs for end users, participants said during last week’s meeting in Leeds held jointly by the National Steel Association (NSA) and International Steel Trade Association (ISTA), attended by Kallanish.
“Our businesses are under attack,” said one speaker, citing the Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) changes brought in at short notice earlier this year.
These have “unfairly cost companies millions of pounds in unbudgeted duties and are continuing to distort trade patterns in the affected product groups.”
“Investment will not take place against the background of instability and uncertainty created by ministerial unpredictability,” they added.
While they noted the need for domestic steel production to be maintained, this should not be detrimental to the independent steel processing, distribution, manufacturing and construction industries.
They added that docks and hauliers cannot exist solely on exports.
The source highlighted the ongoing pushback from some sectors in response to proposals by the EU to reduce import quotas to 2013 levels.
“The downstream manufacturers would be left wide open to imports of finished products at the same time as facing higher prices from domestic producers who would be protected,” they said.
They rejected suggestions that the UK and EU markets are the same, noting that producers in the EU are protected by quotas while consumers still have a wide choice of producers, while there is one UK producer for each main product. This risks creating a monopoly situation.
Elsewhere, a port representative also warned of the “massive change globally” which they said was going to impact every person in the sector.
The changes will make trade “difficult to do” as no one can risk paying a 50% tariff.
If the UK was to replicate the EU safeguards, it would see domestic mill price rises, resulting in higher costs for manufacturing industries and carmakers, they noted.
“We live in a global industry and substitution is relatively easy,” they noted, with steel able to be replaced by timber and concrete in some cases.
They suggested that whichever material is cheapest and has the least amount of trade protection will be chosen.
“We’re killing our industry and manufacturing,” they said. “The more trade protection we have, the fewer options we give our customers; and the more expensive they become, the more difficult it is for them to compete, and it’s a global industry.”
They suggested the tightening of safeguard measures will encourage imports of finished goods from overseas.
Elsewhere, they noted that short-sea ports have struggled during 2025 as the market has struggled, particularly on flat products more than long products.
Carrie Bone UK
EU coil mills waver in annual contracts
Coil mills and big buyers attending last week’s Euroblech trade fair in Stuttgart exchanged first positions in the upcoming negotiations for annual supply contracts, mainly for the automotive industry. Some buyers said they would not mind if mills were bolder with their proposals.
Talking to Kallanish, a couple of mills stated they are asking for at least €100/tonne ($116) more in comparison to last year’s agreements, “in order to be able to keep operating”, as one manager put it.
Among buyers, the impressions were more diverse, ranging from hikes of €60 to €100, although buyers find that the higher end will be unrealistic.
However, buyers might not be happy with a shallow year-on-year increase either, telling Kallanish that minimal increases are harder to hand down to customers. These are often the carmakers, which are bigger and more powerful in negotiations.
“If we, for example, have a y-on-y increase of only €10-20, the carmakers will just ignore it, and insist to continue their previous contracts with us,” a buyer of a tier one supplier said. “With a €50 hike, we would have a decent basis for new deals with the OEMs.”
Using a popular figure of speech, he compared the situation of the automotive suppliers to “the sausage in the sandwich – we taste good, but we have no influence over the pressure from above and below”.
This is why he would prefer mills to impose their will over pricing more strongly, which they are not doing. “I am missing an attitude of ‘we must, and we will’; there are too many subjunctives and maybes,” he pointed out.
He hopes that positions will firm for the upcoming substantial negotiations in two to three weeks’ time.
Christian Koehl Germany